CHAPTER SEVEN

Managing Risk
Quản lý rủi ro

Copyright © 2014 McGraw-Hill Education.

All Rights Reserved.

PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook

Where
Where We
We Are
Are Now
Now

7–2
 Learning
Learning objectives
objectives
1. Hiểu được quá trình quản lý rủi ro –
Understand risk management process
2. Xác định được rủi ro trong dự án – Identify
risk
3. 4 cách ứng phó với rủi ro – Four different
responses to manage risk
4. Các yếu tố và vấn đề liên quan tới quá trình
quản trị - Factors affects risk management

7–3
 Quản
Quản trị
trị rủi
rủi ro
ro
• Risk
– Uncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or
control.
– Những yếu tố không chắc chắn => vượt ngoài tầm kiểm soát
• Risk Management
– A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and
external threats that affect the likelihood of a project’s success.
Đây là quá trình nhận diện và quản trị những thách thức và vấn đề
=> sự thành công của dự án
• What can go wrong (risk event).

• How to minimize the risk event’s impact (consequences).

• What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation).

• What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans).

7–4
 The
The Risk
Risk Event
Event Graph
Graph
Chi phí ngày càng
cao khi thực thi và
hoàn thành dự án =>
sửa lỗi

Cần lường
trước =>
giảm thiểu rủi
ro và chi phí
Rủi ro hình thành
trong quá trình lên
kế hoạch dự án

FIGURE 7.1

7–5
7–6
Can
Can we
we eliminate
eliminate risks?
risks?

7–7
 Risk
Risk Management’s
Management’s Benefits
Benefits

• Chủ động trong quá trình xử lý và quản trị rủi ro

• Giảm thiểu được sự bị động (surprise) và các hệ
quả.
• Các nhà quản lý có thể tìm kiếm một số cơ hội từ
rủi ro.
• Kiểm soát tốt hơn ở những giai đoạn sau của dự
án.
• Góp phần thực thi dự án đúng thời hạn với kinh
phí dự tính trước đó.
7–8
Phân tích và xác định các
rủi ro có thể xảy ra + nguồn
của những rủi ro

Xem xét dựa trên

ba tiêu chí:

The
The Risk
Risk
Management
Management
Process
Process

FIGURE 7.2

7–9
 Step
Step 1:
1: Risk
Risk identification
identification
• Đưa ra một danh sách các rủi ro có thể xảy ra
trong quá trình thực hiện dự án (The risk
management process begins by trying to
generate a list of all the possible risks that could
affect the project)
• Organizations use risk breakdown structures
(RBSs) in conjunction with work breakdown
structures (WBSs) to help management teams
identify and eventually ana- lyze risks.

7–10
Cách
Cách 1:
1: The
The Risk
Risk Breakdown
Breakdown Structure
Structure (RBS)
(RBS)

FIGURE 7.3

7–11
Partial
Partial Risk
Risk Profile
Profile for
for Product
Product Development
Development Project
Project

FIGURE 7.4

7–12
Example
Example

7–13
 Step
Step 2:
2: Risk
Risk assessment
assessment
• Scenario analysis is the easiest and most
commonly used technique for analyzing risks.
Team members assess the significance of each
risk event in terms of:
• ∙ Probability of the event.
• ∙ Impact of the event.

7–14
 Step
Step 2:
2: Risk
Risk assessment
assessment
• The risk severity matrix provides a basis for
prioritizing which risks to address.

7–15
 Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment Form
Form
Liệt kê các rủi ro có
thể xảy ra Khả năng xảy ra

Độ khó phát
hiện

FIGURE 7.6

7–16
 Risk
Risk Severity
Severity Matrix
Matrix
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Impact × Probability × Detection = Risk Value => ranking

Đưa các risk vào

xếp vào các ô ở
User Interface đây theo điểm
4 Backlash problems đánh trên ma trận
đánh giá rủi ro
Likelihood

Red zone (major risk)

3 Yellow zone (moderate risk)
Green zone (minor risk)

System
2
freezing

Hardware
1 malfunc-
tioning

1 2 3 4 5 FIGURE 7.7
Impact
7–17
 Step
Step 2:
2: Risk
Risk assessment
assessment
• Sử dung mô hình - Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis (FMEA) by including ease of detection
in the equation:
• Impact × Probability × Detection = Risk Value
• a high-impact risk with a high probability and
impos- sible to detect would score 125 (5 × 5 ×
5 = 125)
• a risk with an impact in the “1” zone with a very
low probability and an easy detection score
might score a 1 (1 × 1 × 1 = 1).

7–18
 Extra
Extra
• Một số các dự án còn sử dụng chỉ số NPV để
xem xét về rủi ro dòng tiền của dự án
• Statistical variations of net present value (NPV)
have been used to assess cash flow risks in
projects.

7–19
 Step
Step 3:
3: Risk
Risk Response
Response development
development
• Step 3: Risk Response Development
– There are basically two strat- egies for mitigating risk:
(1) reduce the likelihood that the event will occur and/or
(2) reduce the impact that the adverse event would
have on the project.
– Mitigating Risk (Giảm thiểu rủi ro)
• Reducing the likelihood an adverse event will occur – giảm
thiểu khả năng xảy ra rủi ro
VD:
Thử nghiệm và tạo mẫu thường được sử dụng thể giảm thiểu các
rủi ro xuất hiện
- Cố gắng xác định được nguồn gốc vấn đề
• Reducing impact of adverse event – giảm thiểu hệ quả tiêu cực
của rủi ro

7–20
 Step
Step 3:
3: Risk
Risk Response
Response development
development
– Avoiding Risk
• Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition. –
thay đổi một vài điểm trong dự án đề phòng tránh rủi ro có
thể xảy ra
VD: adopting proven technology instead of
experimental technology can eliminate technical
failure.
– Transferring Risk
• Paying a premium to pass the risk to another party.
• VD: insurance
– Retaining Risk - accept
• Making a conscious decision to accept the risk.

7–21
 Contingency
Contingency Planning
Planning
• Contingency Plan => nhiều lựa chọn
– An alternative plan that will be used if a possible
foreseen risk event actually occurs. Đây là một kế
hoạch thay thế được sử dung khi rủi ro lường trc xảy ra
– A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the
negative impact (consequences) of a risk event.

• Risks of Not Having a Contingency Plan

– Having no plan may slow managerial response.
– Decisions made under pressure can be potentially
dangerous and costly.

7–22
Risk
Risk Response
Response Matrix
Matrix

FIGURE 7.8

7–23
 Opportunity
Opportunity management
management
• There is a flip side—what could go right on a
project? This is commonly referred to as a
positive risk or opportunity. An opportunity is
an event that can have a positive impact on
project objectives.
EG:
A drop in fuel prices may create savings that
could be used to add value to a project.

7–24
 Four
Four response
response when
when having
having opportunity
opportunity
• Exploit – Khai thác
– Loại bỏ sự không chắc chắn => khiến nó xảy ra (seeks to
eliminate the uncertainty associated with an opportu- nity to
ensure that it definitely happens)
• Share – Chia sẻ
– Có thể chia sẻ cơ hội cho người làm tốt (involves allocating
some or all of the ownership of an oppor- tunity to another party
who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the
project)

7–25
 Four
Four response
response when
when having
having opportunity
opportunity
• Enhance – Tăng cường
– Thực hiện một vài hoạt động để khiến khả năng xảy ra cao hơn
(Enhance is the opposite of mitigation in that action is taken to
increase the probability and/or the positive impact of an
opportunity)
• Accept – Chấp nhận
– Nếu nó xảy ra => chấp nhận; không làm thêm hoạt động gì để
khiến nó xảy ra. (Accepting an opportunity is being willing to
take advantage of it if it occurs, but not taking action to pursue
it.)

7–26
Chi
Chi phí
phí cho
cho Contingency
Contingency plan
plan và
và thời
thời gian
gian
đệm
đệm
• Contingency Funds
– Funds to cover project risks—identified and unknown.
• Size of funds reflects overall risk of a project
– Budget reserves
• Are linked to the identified risks of specific work packages.
– Management reserves
• Are large funds to be used to cover major unforeseen risks
(e.g., change in project scope) of the total project.
• Time Buffers
– Amounts of time used to compensate for unplanned
delays in the project schedule.
• Severe risk, merge, noncritical, and scarce resource activities

7–27
Contingency
Contingency Fund
Fund Estimate
Estimate ($000s)
($000s)

TABLE 7.1

7–28
 Step
Step 4:
4: Risk
Risk response
response control
control
• Step 4: Risk Response Control
– Risk control
• Thực hiện các hoạt động ứng phó với rủi ro
• Quản trị các vấn đề xảy ra
• Hình thành rủi ro mới

– Establishing a Change Management System

Thiết lập hệ thống quản trị sự thay đổi
• Rà soát rủi ro
• Thành lập môi trường doanh nghiệp mở
• Rà soát rủi ro liên tục
• Phân trách nhiệm rõ ràng nếu có rủi ro xảy ra

7–29
Change
Change Management
Management Control
Control (Self-reading)
(Self-reading)
• Sources of Change
– Project scope changes
– Implementation of contingency plans
– Improvement changes

7–30
 Change
Change Control
Control System
System Process
Process
1. Identify proposed changes.
2. List expected effects of proposed changes
on schedule and budget.
3. Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove
of changes formally.
4. Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change,
condition, and cost.
5. Communicate changes to parties affected.
6. Assign responsibility for implementing change.
7. Adjust master schedule and budget.
8. Track all changes that are to be implemented

7–31
 The
The Change
Change
Control
Control Process
Process

FIGURE 7.9

7–32
 Benefits
Benefits of
of aa Change
Change Control
Control System
System
1. Inconsequential changes are discouraged
by the formal process.
2. Costs of changes are maintained in a log.
3. Integrity of the WBS and performance measures
is maintained.
4. Allocation and use of budget and management
reserve funds are tracked.
5. Responsibility for implementation is clarified.
6. Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved.
7. Implementation of change is monitored.
8. Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline
and performance measures.
7–33
 Key
Key Terms
Terms

Avoiding risk Risk

Budget reserve Risk breakdown structure (RBS)
Change management system Risk profile
Contingency plan Risk register
Management reserve Risk severity matrix
Mitigating risk Scenario analysis
Opportunity Time buffer
Retaining risk Transferring risk

7–34
PERT and PERT Simulation
Appendix
Appendix 7.1
7.1

7–35
 PERT—Program
PERT—Program Evaluation
Evaluation Review
Review Technique
Technique

• Assumes each activity duration has a range that

statistically follows a beta distribution.
• Uses three time estimates for each activity:
optimistic, pessimistic, and a weighted average
to represent activity durations.
– Knowing the weighted average and variances for
each activity allows the project planner to compute
the probability of meeting different project durations.

7–36
Activity
Activity and
and Project
Project Frequency
Frequency Distributions
Distributions

FIGURE A7.1

7–37
 Activity
Activity Time
Time Calculations
Calculations

The weighted average activity time is computed by

the following formula:

(7.1)

7–38
 Activity
Activity Time
Time Calculations
Calculations (cont’d)
(cont’d)

The variability in the activity time estimates is approximated by the following

equations:

The standard deviation for the activity:

(7.2)

The standard deviation for the project:

(7.3)

Note the standard deviation of the activity is squared in this equation; this
is also called variance. This sum includes only activities on the critical
path(s) or path being reviewed.

7–39
Activity
Activity Times
Times and
and Variances
Variances

TABLE A7.1

7–40
 Probability
Probability of
of Completing
Completing the
the Project
Project

The equation below is used to compute the “Z” value found in

statistical tables (Z = number of standard deviations from the
mean), which, in turn, tells the probability of completing the
project in the time specified.

(7.4)

7–41
Hypothetical
Hypothetical Network
Network

FIGURE A7.2

7–42
Hypothetical
Hypothetical Network
Network (cont’d)
(cont’d)

FIGURE A7.2 (cont’d)

7–43
 Possible
Possible Project
Project Duration
Duration
Probability project is completed before Probability project is completed
scheduled time (TS) of 67 units by the 60th unit time period (TS)

FIGURE A7.3

7–44
ZZ Values
Values and
and Probabilities
Probabilities

TABLE A7.2

7–45