TIU CHUN NH GI HIU QU D N U T

ThS. L CNG HONG

B mn Kinh t vn ti Khoa Vn ti Kinh t Trng i hc Giao thng Vn ti Tm tt: Bn cht ca cc d n u t l li ch v chi ph ca chng thng xy ra vo cc giai on khc nhau. Bi v mt s tin c c hin ti c coi l c gi tr cao hn cng mt s tin nh vy nhn c trong tng lai, cc chi ph v li ch n sm hn v mt thi gian cn phi c c coi nh c trng lng ln hn v cc chi ph v li ch n mun hn c trng lng thp hn. S d gi tr ln hn c t vo c li ch v chi ph hin ti hn l tng lai l bi v tin c c by gi cho php s dng u t c li hay tiu dng trong khong thi gian gia hin ti v tng lai. Summary: The nature of investment projects is their benefits and costs often occur as per different time scales. An amount of money obtainable now holds a higher value than the same sum in the future, therefore, costs and benefits that come earlier should be regarded as those of a larger amount, and vice versa. The reason is that the money obtainable at present can allow for investment or spending between now and future.

CT 2

I. KHI NIM U T Trong cuc sng hng ngy, chng ta thng xuyn s dng cm t: u t, n nh mt cm t d hiu v thng dng, c s dng trong mi lnh vc v trong nhiu tnh hung khc nhau. Nhng chng ta c thc s hiu u t l g? Quan nim v u t th c rt nhiu, v a ra c khi nim u t l g cng xy ra rt nhiu tranh ci. Nhng hin ti, hu ht cc nh kinh t hc cng nh nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch v nghin cu kinh t, ti chnh u thng nht hai khi nim chnh v u t nh sau: Mt l: u t l vic s dng tin hoc ngun vn sinh ra li nhun. Hai l: u t l s hi sinh mt gi tr chc chn hin ti i ly mt gi tr khng chc chn, nhng cao hn, trong tng lai. II. TIU CHUN NH GI HIU QU D N U T Bn cht ca cc d n u t l li ch v chi ph ca chng thng xy ra vo cc giai on khc nhau. Bi v mt s tin c c hin ti c coi l c gi tr cao hn cng mt s tin nh vy nhn c trong tng lai, cc chi ph v li ch n sm hn v mt thi gian cn phi c c coi nh c trng lng ln hn v cc chi ph v li ch n mun hn c trng lng thp hn. S d gi tr ln hn c t vo c li ch v chi ph hin ti hn l tng lai l bi v tin c c by gi cho php s dng u t c li hay tiu dng trong khong thi

gian gia hin ti v tng lai. Do , ngi i vay sn sng tr li sut dng c th s dng c vn, cn ngi cho vay i phi tr c li. Trong qu kh, c nhiu tiu chun khc nhau c dng nh gi kt qu d kin ca cc d n u t. Nhng tu chung li c bn tiu chun chnh. C th l: tiu chun hin gi li ch rng, t s li ch - chi ph, thi k hon vn, v ni sut thu hi vn. Trong bn tiu chun ny, tiu chun li ch rng l tiu chun tha mn nht, mc d tiu chun ny i khi c th phi iu chnh cht t tnh ti cc cng ch c bit. Tiu chun hin gi li ch rng (Net Present Value, NPV) NPV (Net present value) c dch l Hin gi li ch rng hoc Gi tr hin ti rng, c ngha l gi tr ti thi im hin nay ca ton b dng tin d n trong tng lai c chit khu v hin ti. Gi tr hin ti rng ca mt d n u t l s chnh lch gia tng gi tr khu hao ca cc dng tin trong tng lai pht sinh t d n u t so vi gi tr vn u t. NPV = gi tr hin ti ca dng tin vo (thu) - gi tr hin ti ca dng tin ra (chi). Nu 1usd em u t, s tng ln thnh (1+r)usd sau mt nm, tc l mt khon tin B trong nm ti s c gi tr hin ti (hin gi) l B/(1+r). Tng t nh vy, mt khon u t tr gi 1usd hin nay s tng ln thnh (1+r)n usd trong n nm, v mt khon tin B s nhn c vo n nm trong tng lai s c hin gi B(1+r)n usd. Sut chit khu r cng cao v thi gian c c s tin cng li xa vo tng lai, th hin gi ca n cng nh. Hin gi li ch rng (Net Present Value, NPV) ca mt dng cc li ch rng trong tng lai, (B0 - C0), (B1 - C1), (B2 - C2),..., (Bn - Cn) c th c din t bng i s nh sau:
CT 2

NPVr0 = hay

(B 0 C 0 ) (B1 C1 ) (B C n ) + + ... + n 0 1 (1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )n

(1)

NPVr0 =

(1 + r )
t =0

(B t C t )
t

(2)

Trong : n l thi gian hot ng ca d n. Biu thc 1/(1+r)t thng c gi l h s chit khu cho nm thi gian. Khi nh gi hiu qu d n u t bng Tiu chun hin gi li ch rng (NPV), cn lu nhng vn sau:
1. Khi no th bc b d n

Bc u tin tnh hin gi ca d n u t l phi tr tt c cc chi ph ra khi tng li ch ca mi giai on c c li ch rng. Th hai l chn mt sut chit khu th hin c chi ph c hi ca vn khi dng cho nhng vic khc ca nn kinh t, do quy ra mt chi ph ca vn cho mi d n bng vi li ch phi t b. Khi hin gi li ch rng ca mt d n c tnh theo cc tiu chun kinh t, th hin gi li ch rng dng c ngha l d n ny s lm cho nn kinh t tt hn, hin gi li ch rng m s lm cho nn kinh t t hn. Chnh ngha ny ca tiu chun hin gi li ch rng

a chng ta n cch din t th nht ca tiu chun ny, v iu ny lun lun ng trong mi hon cnh.
Quy tc 1: "khng chp nhn mt d n no tr phi d n ny c hin gi li ch rng dng khi c chit khu bng chi ph c hi ca vn."

Gi s mt c quan chnh quyn c bn c hi u t sau y v khng phi chu hn ch no v s tin vay cp vn cho nhng d n mong mun. Cc d n ny c chit khu bi chi ph c hi ca vn cng qu v hin gi li ch rng (Net Present Value, NPV). D n A: hin gi chi ph u t l 1 triu -la, NPV l +$70.000 D n B: hin gi chi ph u t l 5 triu -la, NPV l -$50.000 D n C: hin gi chi ph u t l 2 triu -la, NPV l +$100.000 D n D: hin gi chi ph u t l 3 triu -la, NPV l -$25.000 Trong tnh trng ny, ch c d n A v C l c th chp nhn c. Nc ny s b t hi hn nu nh chnh quyn vay thm vn u t cho d n B v D.
2. Hn ch ca ngn sch

Thng thng chnh quyn khng th c vn mt mc chi ph c nh thc hin tt c cc d n c hin gi li ch rng dng. Khi tnh th nh vy xy ra, ta cn phi la chn gia cc d n quyt nh mt nhm cc d n m s ti a ha hin gi li ch rng ca cc cng trnh u t nm trong gii hn ca ngn sch. Nh th, cch din t th hai ca tiu chun hin gi li ch rng l:
Quy tc 2: "Trong gii hn ca mt ngn sch c n nh, cn phi chn trong s cc d n hin c nhm d n no c th ti a ho hin gi li ch rng."
CT 2

Bi v hn ch ngn sch khng i hi tt c kinh ph phi c s dng ht, nn quy tc ny ngn chn vic thc hin mt d n c hin gi li ch rng m. Ngay c khi tt c vn ca ngn sch khng c s dng ht, NPV do s vn ngn sch ny mang li s tng ln nu d n c NPV m b loi b. Gi s cc d n sau m t cc c hi u t ca mt c quan chnh quyn vi mt ngn sch n nh cho vic chi dng vn l 4 triu -la. D n E tn 1 triu -la, NPV l +$60.000 D n F tn 3 triu -la, NPV l +$400.000 D n G tn 2 triu -la, NPV l +$150.000 D n H tn 2 triu -la, NPV l +$225.000 Vi hn ch ngn sch l 4 triu -la, ta phi cn nhc tt c nhng kt hp kh d ca cc d n sao cho va st trong gii hn ny. Kt hp FG v FH l khng th c, v chi ph ca chng qu ln. Kt hp EG v EH nm trong gii hn ca ngn sch, nhng kt hp EF li ni bt vi tng NPV l $460.000. Ch cn mt kt hp khc nm trong gii hn ngn sch l GH, nhng tng NPV l $375.000, khng cao bng NPV ca cp EF. Nu gii hn ngn sch c

m rng ra 5 triu -la, th ta b d n E v lm d n H cng vi d n F. Trong trng hp ny, hin gi li ch rng ca nhm d n (H v F) s l $625.000, ln hn hin gi li ch rng ca nhm tt th nh (F v G) l $550.000. Gi s l d n E, thay v c NPV l +$60.000, nay c NPV l -$60.000. Nu gii hn ngn sch vn l 4 triu -la, th chin lc tt nht vn l ch thc hin d n F vi hin gi li ch rng l +$400.000. Trong trng hp ny, 1 triu -la cn li ca ngn sch nn c em ra s dng th trng vn cho d l chnh gii hn ngn sch ang cn tr ta khng cho thc hin cc d n c tim nng tt nh G v H. Khi sut chit khu th hin y chi ph c hi ca vn cng qu, th ta phi bc b s la chn cc nhm d n m tng hin gi li ch rng gim i, cho d ngn sch vn c vn thc hin cc d n ny.
3. So snh cc d n loi tr ln nhau

Rt nhiu khi trong cng tc thm nh d n ta gp phi nhng tnh hung phi la chn gia nhng d n thay th nhau c ngha l nu thc hin d n ny th phi b d n kia. V l do k thut, c th khng th thc hin c c hai d n. V d, khi lm mt con ng ni hai th trn, c nhiu mc cht lng khc nhau ca con ng ny; tuy nhin ngi ta ch c th lm mt con ng. Tng t nh vy, mt ming t xy dng khng th dng cho hai mc ch khc nhau vo cng mt lc. Do , vn m nh phn tch u t gp phi l phi la chn trong nhng d n loi tr ln nhau mt d n mang li hin gi li ch rng ln nht. iu ny c th din t di dng quy tc sau:
Quy tc ba: "Trong tnh hung khng b gii hn ngn sch, nhng ta phi chn mt d n trong s cc phng n loi tr ln nhau, ta lun lun cn phi chn d n sinh ra hin gi li ch rng ln nht."

CT 2

Gi s ta phi la chn gia ba d n loi tr ln nhau sau: D n I: Hin gi chi ph u t l 1 triu -la, NPV l $300.000 D n J: Hin gi chi ph u t l 4 triu -la, NPV l $700.000 D n K: Hin gi chi ph u t l 1,5 triu -la, NPV l $600.000 Trong tnh hung ny c ba d n u c tim nng tt, v tt c u c hin gi li ch rng dng. Tuy nhin, ta ch c th thc hin mt d n. Mc d ph tn ca phng n J l ln nht, nhng hin gi li ch rng NPV ca n cng l ln nht; bi th ta cn chn phng n ny. Mc d d n K c NPV ln nht tnh trn mi -la vn u t, nhng iu ny khng quan h g nu sut chit khu phn nh chi ph c hi ca vn . Nu ta chn d n J thay v d n K, vi phn u t tri ln 2,5 triu -la, hin gi li ch rng s tng thm $100.000 sau khi tnh chi ph c hi ca gi tr u t tri ln ny. Do , chn d n J th tt hn. Khi tin hnh d n I thay th d n J, ngi ta gi thit rng chng ta ch hy vng thu c mt hin gi li ch rng bng 0 khi em u t s vn cn li vo mt d n L no . Vic s dng chi ph c hi ca vn lm sut chit khu tt yu bao hm gi thit ny. Do , s kt hp ca d n I v mt d n "L" khc s phi tn 4 triu th m NPV ca kt hp ny s ch l $300.000.

4. Gii hn khi la chn gia cc d n c th thay th nhau khi p dng tiu chun hin gi li ch rng

Hin gi li ch rng ca mt d n khng ch l mt ch s xp hng cc d n, m n cn mang ngha ng k hn. N o lng gi tr hay thng d gi tr do mt d n to ra ngoi nhng g m nhng ngun vn ny c th mang li nu chng khng c s dng trong cc d n u t ny ca khu vc cng. Trong mt s trng hp, vic u t vo mt phng tin nh mt con ng c th c thc hin thng qua mt lot cc d n ngn hn hoc mt hay nhiu d n di hn hn. Nu li ch thu v t vic m rng phng tin ny trong ton b i hu dng ca n nh th l mt c hi u t c hin gi li ch rng dng, n s l khng c ngha g khi ta em so snh hin gi li ch rng ca mt d n cung cp cc dch v ng s trong ton b i hu dng ca d n vi hin gi li ch rng ca mt d n cung cp cc dch v ng s ch cho mt thi gian ngn nu ta d kin rng d n ngn ny s c lp i lp li. Vn tng t nh vy cng ny sinh trong vic thm nh cc chin lc u t khc nhau cho vic sn xut in nng. S l khng ng khi ta em so snh hin gi li ch rng ca mt nh my tua-bin kh c tui th 10 nm vi mt nh my dng than c tui th 30 nm, nu ta d kin rng trong sut thi gian 30 nm ny, s khan him ca cc nh my in s dn n sut thu hi cao hn bnh thng ca u t vo nng sut. Trong trng hp nh vy, chng ta phi so snh cc chin lc u t c thi gian hot ng xp x nhau. Ta c th so snh mt chui d n nh my in tua-bin kh tip theo l nh my in loi khc m chng c tng thi gian hu dng bng tui th ca nh my in dng than. Trong hu ht cc tnh hung thm nh d n, ngi ta khng cho rng s kt thc ca mt d n ngn hn s mang li cho nhng d n tip theo nhng c hi vi sut thu hi vn cao hn bnh thng. Trong trng hp nh vy, cch thch hp l so snh cc d n c thi gian hu dng khc nhau vi cc bin dng li ch kinh t rng ca tt c cc d n em chit khu theo chi ph c hi kinh t ca vn cng qu. Khi ngi ta cho rng cc d n vi i hu dng ngn s dn ti cc d n k tip c siu li nhun, th vic so snh cc d n c th thay th cho nhau vi i hu dng khc nhau m s cung cp nhng dch v nh nhau vo mt thi im nht nh s i hi chng ta phi iu chnh chin lc u t ca chng ta chng tri di cng mt khong thi gian xp x bng nhau. Mt trong nhng hnh thc iu chnh nh th l xem xt cng mt d n c lp li theo thi gian cho ti khi cc chin lc u t thay th khc c cng nhng khong thi gian hu dng tng t. V d, gi s chng ta mun lm mt con ng v phi xem xt 3 loi mt b mt ng:
Phng n i hu dng ca ng
CT 2

Phng n A Phng n B Phng n C

ng ri 3 nm ng trng nha nng 5 nm ng trng nha lnh 15 nm

Nu ta phi so snh hin gi li ch rng ca 3 phng n ny vi i hu dng 3, 5 v 15 nm th kt qu s dn n sai lch. Tuy nhin, ta c th thc hin mt s so snh ng n v nhng d n ny nu ta xy dng mt d n hay chin lc u t bao gm 5 d n ng ri , mi d n c tin hnh vo mt thi im trong tng lai khi cng trnh trc n h mn. Do , chng ta c th so snh 5 d n ng ri ko di 15 nm, vi 3 d n ng trng nha nng v vi 1 d n ng trng nha lnh c thi gian hu dng 15 nm. Cch so snh ny c th c vit nh sau: K hiu Chin lc u t i hu dng ca ng (a) NPV (A+A+A+A+A) (1-3,4-6,7-9,10-12,13-15) NPV (B+B+B) (1-5,6-10,11-15) NPV (C) (1-15) 15 nm

(b)

15 nm

(c)

15 nm

CT 2

Hay vi mt cch khc tt hn, ta c th xem xt cc chin lc u t c cu thnh bi s kt hp cc d n vi cc loi mt ng theo thi gian, chng hn nh: K hiu Chin lc u t i hu dng ca ng (A+A+A+B+C) (d) 29 nm (1-3,4-6,7-9,10-14,15-29) (e) (A+B+B+C) (1-3,4-8,9-13,14-28) 28 nm

Trong trng hp ny, ta cn phi iu chnh thm chin lc 29 nm (d) lm cho n c th so snh c vi chin lc (e) m thi gian hu dng d kin l 28 nm. Vic iu chnh ny c th lm nh sau: tnh hin gi li ch rng ca d n sau khi tr li ch c c vo nm 29 ra khi phn tnh ton hin gi li ch rng, ng thi gim hin gi ca chi ph i mt khon bng t l PVB29/PVB (trong : PVB l hin gi ca tt c cc li ch ca ton b chin lc, bao gm c nm th 29, v PVB29 l hin gi ca li ch c c trong nm th 29). Bng cch ny, hin gi ca chi ph ca d n c gim bt i theo mt t l ngang vi t l dng gim bt hin gi ca cc li ch. Do , d n s thnh ra so snh c v mt chi ph v li ch vi chin lc u t c i hu dng ngn hn.
III. KT LUN

NPV l gi tr hin ti rng mang li cho ch u t t vic thc hin d n. N c tnh trn tng dng tin pht sinh t d n (out_cashflow) v dng tin i vo d n (in_cashflow) v tnh n li sut chit khu. NPV c hn ch khi khng th hin c thi gian hon vn v t sut li nhun trn vn, song khi so snh cc d n tng t v loi tr nhau th n c tnh u vit hn c, v n xc nh c tng li nhun qui i v hin ti t vic thc hin d n.

Trong thc t c nhiu cch tnh NPV, tu thuc vo i tng nghin cu. Nu l ch u t th dng tin vo (chi ph) d n ch cn xem xt trn vn ch s hu, cc chi ph vn khc c loi tr. Cn nu l ngi cho vay th NPV c xem xt nh kh nng thanh ton n t d n (c bao gm c li vay). Mc ch ca vic tnh hin gi ch li rng ca mt d n l xc nh xem vic s dng ti nguyn theo cch tnh ny c mang li li ch ln hn chi ph ca ti nguyn hay khng, m chi ph c phn nh bng sut chit khu thch hp. Nu nh c li, hin gi li ch rng s l dng; nu khng hin gi li ch rng s l m.
Ti liu tham kho [1]. Arnold C. Harberger, Project Evaluation: Colletcted Papers, McMillan 1972, Chapter 2. [2]. Michael Roemer and Joseph J. Stern, The Appraisal of Development Projects: A Practical Guide to Project Analysis with Case Studies and Solutions, New York, Praeger, 1975. [3]. Donald R. Lessard and Daniel L. Wisecarver, "The Endowed Wealth of Nations Versus the Internal Rate of Return," Development Discussion Paper 75, Harvard Institute for International Development, July 1979. [4]. www.kinhtehoc.com

CT 2