NH GI C PHIU

Ngi trnh by: Phm Tin t

Ging vin Hc vin Ngn hng
Email: phamtiendat.hvnh@gmail.com
D: 0906.145.004

Ni dung bui hc
Mt s vn chung ca ba PP
V d thc t theo s liu ca Bn co
bch Cng ty Thy in Thc M cho ba
phng php.
Trao i tho lun v gi c phiu trn th
trng cng nh kinh nghim ca cc nh
phn tch u t chng khon

Mc tiu ca bui hc
C c cc kin thc c bn v nh gi
c phiu
S dng c cc ti liu do DN cung cp
trn th trng phc v GCP.
Tm c khong gi tr hp l CP hp l
sau khi p dung PP GCP
Hn ch thp nht nhng ri ro trong qu
trnh a ra gi mua gi bn CP
3

Thi gian lm vic

PP gi tr s sch - 40 pht
PP dng tin chit khu 50 pht
PP P/E 40 pht
Trao i, tho lun thi gian cn li

Mt s vn lin quan n GCP

nh gi c phiu l g ?
Ti sao phi nh gi CP?
Nhng kh khn khi nh gi CP?

nh gi c phiu
Cng vic c tnh
Khng bao gi nh gi bng phng
php duy nht
Gi tr c phiu c c tnh ch c gi
tr thi im c th
6

 Khng nh gi c c
phiu l u t cho ri ro
v tht bi

Nhng kh khn khi nh gi CP

Kh khn trong vic thc hin cc pp G
Kh khn do nhng yu t bt ng
Do s nhy cm ca CP vi cc thng tin

PHNG PHP GI TR S SCH

Mt s vn chung
Phng php g tr s sch l g?

Cch xc nh gi tr c phiu theo

phng php?
Ti sao li s dng phng php
ny nh gi c phiu

V d thc t
9

Phng php gi tr s sch l:

Phng php c tnh gi tr c
phiu da trn gi tr thc t ca
doanh nghip hin ang s dng
vo sn xut kinh doanh tr i
tng n phi tr ca doanh
nghip

10

Cng thc xc nh :
Gi tr s sch cho mt c phiu thng:
Gi tr thc t ca DN Tng n
= ---------------------------------------------------Tng s CP c php pht hnh
Gi tr thc t phn vn Nh nc ti DN
= -----------------------------------------------------Tng s CP c php pht hnh
11

Ti sao s dng phng php:

D tnh ton

D ly thng tin
Dng kim tra cch tnh ton ca
cc phng php khc

12

V d thc t:
Theo Bn co bch ca Cng ty Thy
in Thc M c cc s liu sau:
Pht hnh s c phiu cho bn u gi
l: 70.000.000 c phiu.
Ti thi im c phn ha gi tr phn vn
thc t ca Nh nc ti Cng ty Thy
in Thc M l : 1.432.742.646.692 .

Hy xc nh gi tr s sch 1 c phiu
thng ca cng ty phc v cho
phin u gi vo ngy 29/03/2007.
13

PHNG PHP DNG TIN

CHIT KHU
Mt s vn chung
Mt s kin thc v gi tr thi gian ca
ng tin, li sut chit khu.
Phng php dng tin chit khu l g?
Cch xc nh gi tr c phiu theo
phng php?
Ti sao li s dng phng php ny
nh gi c phiu

V d thc t
14

 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng tin

(Future Value FV):
Nu bn gi ngn hng 100 (n v tin) vi li
sut 10%/nm th nm sau (nm th 1)bn s
c:
110 = 100+100x10% = 100(1+10%)
Tip tc gi s tin 110 ngn hng, mt nm
sau ( nm th 2)bn s nhn c:
121 = 110+110x10% = 110(1+10%)
Thay 110 = 100(1+10%) ta c th vit
121 = 100(1+10%)(1+10%) = 100(1+10%)2
Khi qut, ta c cng thc chung nh sau:

FV = PV(1+r)n

(1)

15

Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng tin (Present

Value PV):
Nu bn ra ngn hng hi ti mun c 121 ng
sau 2 nm, th vi mc li sut ngn hng l
10/nm th by gi ti phi gi bao nhiu ng
T cng thc (1) ta thy:
121 = PV(1+10%)2 PV= 121/(1+10%)2
= 100
Khi qut, ta c cng thc chung nh sau:

FV
PV = ------------(1+r)n

(2)
16

Phn bit FV & PV

Hin ti

FV1

FV2

FVn

PV
17

PHNG PHP DNG TIN

CHIT KHU
Phng php chit khu dng c tc
Phng php chit khu dng tin
thun
Phng php chit khu dng tin thun
i vi vn ch s hu (FCFE)
Phng php chit khu dng tin thun
i vi doanh nghip (FCFF)
18

 Phng php chit khu dng c tc l:

Phng php c tnh gi tr c phiu,
da trn ln ca cc dng c tc,
c hin ti ha v mt thi im xc
nh, m doanh nghip mang li cho
cc nh u t, trong tng lai
Gi?

DPS1

DPS2

DPSn
Tin bn CP(nu bn) Pn

19

Cng thc chung:

DPS1
DPS2
DPSn
DPSt
n
P0 = -------------- + --------------- + . . . + ------------ = --------t=1 (1+r)t
(1+r)1
(1+r)2
(1+r)n

Trong :
P0 : Gi tr ca mt c phiu thng
DPSt: C tc d kin trn mt CP nm th t
r : li sut chit khu
n : s nm u t vo c phiu

20

10

 Trng hp 1: C tc khng thay i qua cc

nm : DPS1 = DPS2 = ...= DPSn = DPS
DPS
P0 = -------r
p dng: Cc doanh nghip m li nhun to ra
hng nm u chi c tc ht cho c ng.

Trng hp 2: C tc tng trng n nh

hng nm, t l tng l g:
DPS0(1+g)
DPS1
P0 = --------------- = ------(g<r)
rg
r-g
p dng: Cc DN c t l tng trng thp hn t21l
tng trng danh ngha ca nn kinh t .

Trng hp 3: C tc tng trng hng nm

khng n nh, n nm th n nh u t bn
c phiu thu tin.
DPSt
Pn
DPSn+1
P0 = -------- + ---------- ; vi Pn= --------------t=1 (1+r)t
(1+r)n
(rn+1 gn+1)
p dng: Cc DN c mt s nm tng trng cao,
mt s nm tng trng thp hoc khng tng
trng sau thng tng trng n nh.
n

22

11

 Ti sao s dng phng php:

Cung cp mt cch gii thch r rng nht: V sao
gi tr c phiu doanh nghip ny li c gi tr cao
hn c phiu doanh nghip kia?
M hnh duy nht tip cn trc tip cc khon thu
nhp di hnh thc li tc c phn xc nh
gi tr chng khon
Gi tr c phiu c xc nh ph hp vi nh
u t c phiu khng phi ginh quyn kim
sot doanh nghip
Phng php c p dng cc nc c th
trng chng khon pht trin. Gi tr c phiu
tnh theo phng php ny c c cc yu
t ri ro, tng trng v cc yu t v hnh khc
ca doanh nghip
23

V d trng hp 1 v 2
Mt cng ty sn xut hng tiu dng c hot
ng kinh doanh n nh, vi cc ch tiu ti
chnh nh sau:
C tc trn mi c phiu l $12
Li sut chit khu cng ty d kin 10%/nm
Yu cu: Hy xc nh gi tr c phiu theo
phng php chit khu dng c tc trn nu:
Cng ty d kin thc hin chnh sch chi tr c nh
Cng ty d kin c tc s tng trng u n qua
cc nm l 4%/ nm
24

12

Gii:
C tc trn c phiu (DPS0) =12$
Li sut chit khu (r) =10%
Trng hp chi tr c tc c nh hng
nm:
P0= DPS/r = 12$/10% =120$
Trng hp c tc s tng trng u n
qua cc nm l 4%/ nm:
P0= DPS1/(r-g)
=12$(1+4%)/(10% - 4%) = 208$
25

V d thc t:
Theo Bn co bch Cng ty TTM c cc s liu sau:
Trong 4 nm 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 c tc tr c
ng d kin u mc l 35.000.000.000;
Trong 3 nm tip theo t nm 2011 n 2013 d kin
t l chi tr c tc tng mc 8% nm v sau tng
vi t l 5% nhng nm tip theo.Vn iu l ca
Cng ty vn gi mc 700.000.000.000 t ng
Li sut chit khu trong 4 nm 2007, 2008, 2009,
2010 ln lt l 5%,5%,5%,6% . Ba nm tip theo
2011, 2012, 2013 mc 9%/nm v trong cc nm
tip theo vn l 9%/nm.
Hy xc nh gi tr 1 c phiu thng theo pp dng tin
chit khu ca cng ty phc v cho phin u gi
26
vo ngy 29/03/2007.

13

Gii:

DPS2007=35.000.000.000; DPS2008=35.000.000.000;
DPS2009=35.000.000.000; DPS2010 = 35.000.000.000
DPS2011= DPS2010 + DPS2010 x 8%
=35.000.000.000+35.000.000.000 x 8% = 37.800.000.000
DPS2012= DPS2011 + DPS2011 x 8%
=37.800.000.000+37.800.000.000 x 8%= 40.824.000.000

DPS2013= DPS2012 + DPS2012 x 8%

=40.824.000.000+40.824.000.000x 8% = 44.089.920.000

DPS2014= DPS2013 + DPS2013 x 5%

=44.089.920.000+44.089.920.000 x 5%= 46.294.416.000
S tin thu do bn c phiu l:
46.294.416.000
DPS2013
P2012= -------------- = ------------------------------ = 1.157.360.400.000
9%-5%
i2013-g2013
27

Tng gi tr CP thng ca Cng ty theo pp CKDCT:

35
P0 = ------------ +
(1+5%)1
37,8
+ ----------- +
(1+9%)5
= 33,333 +

35
------------ +
(1+5%)2
40,824
------------ +
(1+9%)6

35
35
------------ + -----------(1+5%)3
(1+6%)4
44,089
1.157,36
----------- + --------------(1+9%)7
(1+9%)7

31,746 + 30,234 + 27,723

+ 24,567 + 24,342 + 24,119 + 633,116
= 829,180 t ng
Gi tr 1 CP thng ca C.ty= P0/Tng s lng CP cho
bn = 829,180 t ng/14.000.000CP = 59.227,20/CP

28

14

PHNG PHP P/E

Mt s vn chung
Phng php P/E l g?

Cch xc nh gi tr c phiu theo

phng php ?
Ti sao li s dng phng php
ny nh gi c phiu?

V d thc t
29

Phng php P/E l :

Phng php da trn P/E ca cc
doanh nghip tng ng
hoc c th so snh tm ra gi
tr c phiu ca doanh nghip
ang cn nh gi

30

15

 Cng thc xc nh :
Gi tr c phiuDN ang cn nh gi = EPS DN ang cn
nh gi x P/E

P/E c th tnh theo hai cch sau:

Dng P/E ca bnh qun ton ngnh cng ty
ang hot ng hoc la chn mt cng ty c
c phiu giao dch rng ri c cng t l li
nhun, ri ro v mc tng trng tng t
nh c phiu ang cn nh gi
Dng P/E ca chnh cng ty , thng P/E
nhiu nm trong qu kh
31

Ti sao s dng phng php:

Cho kt qu nhanh chng ra quyt nh kp
thi ,tn t thi gian cng sc hn phng
php CKDT v gi tr s sch
D dng bn
D dng bo v gi tr cn c mua bn
Tun theo tn hiu th trng

V vy, nu th trng chng khon hot

ng n nh, s tr thnh mt phng php
nh gi rt thng dng

32

16

V d thc t:
Theo Bn co bch ca Cng ty Thy in
Thc M c cc s liu sau:
Tng s c phiu s cho bn u gi ln
ny l 14.000.000 CP
Li nhun ca cng ty bnh qun trong bn
nm nm 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 c t
38.714.500.000 ng.
H s P/E bnh qun ca cc cng ty c
cng ngnh ngh sn xut in l 24,56

Hy xc nh gi tr 1 c phiu thng ca
cng ty theo pp h s P/E phc v cho
33
phin u gi vo ngy 29/03/2007.

TNG KT LI CHUYN

n
ti

ch
it

khu

PP

ng

Khong gi tr
hp l ca c
phiu c
nh gi bng
ba phng
php

P/
E

PP Gi tr SS

PP d

9Gi tr SS: Tng TS nh

gi li,tng n phi tr
9Dng tin chit khu:
Dng c tc tr hng nm,
t l tng trng , li sut
chit khu theo tng giai
on
9P/E: Tnh c h s
P/E bnh qun ca ngnh,
hoc gi tr P/E qu kh
trong nhiu nm ca DN

34

17

Tham kho PP chit khu dng tin

thun i vi vn ch s hu (FCFE)
Li
+ Khu hao - Chi TTSDH
nhun sau
thu
Cc khon
Cc khon
- Tng (gim)
TSNH khng - tr n gc + n mi
(+)
pht sinh
phi l tin

FCFE =

35

Phng php FCFE

Trng hp 1: FCFE tng trng n nh hng nm,
t l tng l g:
FCFE1
P0 = ---------i-g

(g<i)

Trng hp 3: FCFE tng trng hng nm khng

n nh, n nm th n nh u t bn CP thu tin.
FCFEt
Pn
FCFEn+1
P0 = -------- + ---------- ; vi Pn = ------------t=1 (1+i)t
(1+i)n
(i gn)
n

36

18

V d minh ha
FCFE i vi mt c phiu ca Cng ty X d kin trong nm th 1
l 1,3 nghn ng, tc tng trng nm th 2 v th 3 l g1 =
5%, nm th 4 v nm th 5 l g2 = 3%, nm th 6 tr i n nh l
g3 = 2%, chi ph vn l 10%? Hy xc nh gi tr CP theo pp FCFE
Gii
FCFE1 = 1,3 ng ;
FCFE2 = 1,3 ng (1+5%) = 1,365ng
FCFE3 = 1,365 ng (1+5%) = 1,433 ng
FCFE4 = 1, 433 ng (1+3%) = 1, 476ng
FCFE5 = 1,476 ng (1+3%) = 1,520 ng
FCFE6 = 1,520 ng (1+2%) = 1,551 ng
P5 =
P0 =

1,55
= 19,387 t
10% - 2%
FCFE2
FCFE1 +
+
(1+10%)2
1+10%

FCFE3
(1+10%)3

FCFE5 + V5
FCFE4
+
(1+10%)5
(1+10%)4

= 1,182 ng + 1,128 ng + 1,076 ng + 1,008 ng + 12,976 ng

37
= 17,37 ng

Tham kho PP chit khu dng tin

thun i vi doanh nghip (FCFF)
Cch 1:
FCFF = FCFE +Li vay (1-t%) + Cc khon tr n
gc
- Cc khon n mi pht sinh

Cch 2:
FCFF =

Li
+ Li vay + Khu hao
nhun sau
(1-t%)
thu
- Tng (gim)
- Chi TTSDH (+)
TSNH khng phi
38
l tin

19

 Phng php FCFF

Trng hp 1: FCFF tng trng n nh hng nm,
t l tng l g:
FCFF1
P0 = ---------------WACC - g

(WACC>g)

Trng hp 2: FCFF tng trng hng nm khng

n nh, n nm th n nh u t bn CP thu tin.
FCFFt
Pn
FCFFn+1
P0 = --------------- + ---------------- ; vi Pn= ----------------t=1(1+WACC)t
(1+WACC)n
(WACC gn)
n

39

V d minh ha
FCFF nm th 1 ca cng ty X l 1,76 ng ng, t l tng trng
FCFF nm th 2 v th 3 l g1= 5%, nm th 4 v th 5 l g2= 3%
v t nm th 6 tng trng n nh l g3= 2%/nm, WACC l
13,8% ? Hy xc nh gi tr CP theo pp FCFF
Gii
FCFF1 = 1,76 ng
FCFF2 = 1,76 *(1+5%) = 1,848 ng
FCFF3 = 1,848 * (1+5%) = 1,904 ng
FCFF4 = 1,904*(1+3%) = 1,9986 ng
FCFF5 = 1,9986 *(1+3%) = 2,0585 ng
FCFF6 = 2,0585 *(1+2%) = 2,0996 ng
V5 =

2,0996
= 17,79 ng
13,8% - 2%
FCFF2
FCFF4
FCFF3
FCFF5+V5
FCFF1
+ (1+ WACC)
+ 3 (1+ WACC)
2 + (1+ WACC)
4 + (1+ WACC)5
1+ WACC

1,76
1,138

1,848
(1,138)2

1,9044
(1,138)3

1,9986 + 2,0585+17,79
1,138)4
(1,138)5

=15,586 40
ng

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