1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ

ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯ
ʧʡʮ

ʥ
ʴʩʡʩ
ʡʠʬʺʺʩ ʮʣʷʠʤʤʬʬʫʮʤ
ʣʥ
ʲʩʱʬʸʴʱʤʺʩʡ

621114 ,ʤʩ
ʢʥ
ʬʥʩ
ʮʣʩ
ʴʠʬʠʥ
ʡʮ
ʤʩ ʡʸʨʬʠʬ'ʢʸ"ʣ
06/02/2014 ,'ʠʣʲʥ
ʮ,'ʠʸʨʱʮʱ,ʣ''ʲʹʺ

ʺʥ
ʠʧʱʥ
ʰʳʣʤʥ
ʥʬʰʤʦʱʴʥ
ʨʬ,ʡʬʭʩ
ʹ

ʭʩ
ʩʺʲʹ:ʤʰ
ʩʧʡʤʪʹʮ
ʣʡʬ
ʡʱʩ
ʫʯʥ
ʡʹʧʮʥʤʰ
ʩʧʡʬʳʸʥ
ʶʮʺʥ
ʠʧʱʥ
ʰʳʣ:ʸʦʲʸʮʥ
ʧ

.ʤʬʠʹʬʺʥʣʥʷʰ2.5 - ʤʤʦʺʥʬʠʹʤʬʷʹʮ.ʯ ʬ
ʥʫʬʲʺʥ
ʰʲʬʹʩ,ʺʥʬ
ʠʹ40 ʤʰʩʧʡʡ
ʭʺʰ
ʮʩʱʭʠ,ʡʬʥʮʩ
ʹ.ʣ
ʡʬʡʺʥʡʥʹʺʤʱʴʥʨʡ,ʸʥʸʡʯ ʴʥʠʡ,(ʣʡʬʡʺʧʠ) ʤʰ
ʥʫʰ
ʤʤʡʥʹʺʤʺʠʯ ʮʱʬʹʩʤʬʠʹʬ ʫʡ
!ʬ
ʱʴʩʺʤʬʠʹʤ- ʺʧʠʤʡʥʹʺʮʸʺʥʩ
.(ʪʫ
ʬʣʲʥ
ʩ
ʮʤʱʴʥʨʡʥ
ʡʺʫʩʩʠʬʹʺʥʡʥʹʺʥʷʣʡʩ ʩʠʬ) ʣʡʬ
ʡʺʥʡʥ
ʹʺʤʱʴʥ ʨʩ
ʡʢʬʲʥʡʺʫʰʹʺʥʡʥ
ʹʺʥʬʡʷʺʩ

.ʷʣʡʩ
ʺʠʬʤʰ
ʩʧʡʤʺʸʧʠ,ʯ
ʥʬʠʹʤʭʲʣʧʩ
ʡʺʥ
ʡʥʹʺʤʱʴʥ
ʨʺʠʸʩ
ʦʧʤʬʹʩ

.ʸʺʥ
ʩʤʬ
ʫʬʺʥ
ʡʥʹʺ4 ʹʩʥ
ʦʤʰ
ʩʧʡʡ.ʺʥ
ʡʥʹʺ6 ʬʹʤʰʩ
ʧʡʱʴʥ
ʨʬʯ
ʫʥʮʺʥʡʥ
ʹʺʤʳʣʩ
ʫʡʬʥʮʩʹ
!ʯ
ʥʫʰ
ʤʭʥ
ʷʮʡʺʥʡʥ
ʹʺʤʺʠʠʬʮʬʥ
ʣʩʴʷʤ

!ʤʧʬʶʤʡ
________________________________________________________________________

:1 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʩ
ʢʥ
ʬʥʩʮʣʩ
ʴʠʤʭʥʧʺʺʠʸʺʥ ʩ
ʡʷʩ ʥʣʮʤʯ ʴʥʠʡʸʩ
ʣʢʮʭʩʠʡʤʭʩʨʴʹʮʤʮʤʦ ʩ
ʠ
.ʭʤʩʮʸʥ
ʢʥʤʩ
ʩʱʥ
ʬʫʥ
ʠʡʩ ʬʥ
ʧʥʺʥ ʠʩ
ʸʡʩʡʶ
ʮʺʶ ʥ
ʴʺʸʷʧʡʷʱʥʲʤʲʣʮ .ʠ
ʺʥ
ʴʥʲʤʺʥʠʩʸʡʡʶ ʮʬ ʲʭʩʩʨʰ
ʢʭʩʮʸʥ
ʢʺʲʴʹʤʡʷʱʥʲʤʲʣʮ .ʡ
ʭʩʩ
ʧʩʬ ʲʡʡʤʠʥ ʬʧʺʤʩʮʸʥʢ
ʥʳʷʩ
ʤʺʫʸʲʤʡʷʱʥʲʲʣʮ .ʢ
ʭʣʠʩʰ
ʡʡʺʥʬʧʮʬʲʺʥʴʥʸʺʬ ʹʺʩ ʬʥʴʩʨʤʤʲʴʹʤʤʩʰʥ
ʰʢ
ʰʮʸʷʧʡʷʱʥʲʲʣʮ .ʣ

:2 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
ʹʬʥ
ʹʮʤʩ
ʡʢʬʯ
ʥʫʰʤʮ."ʩ
ʢʥ
ʬʥʩ
ʮʣʩ
ʴʠʤʹʬʥ
ʹʮʤ" ʩ
ʴʬʸʥʠʩ
ʺʠʩ ʤʤʩ
ʢʥʬʥʩ
ʮʣʩ
ʴʠʡʺʥ ʬʧʮʸʥʠʩ
ʺʡʺʥ ʹʩʢʤʺʧʠ
?ʩ
ʢʥ
ʬʥʩʮʣʩ
ʴʠʤ
ʬʬ
ʥʧʮ,ʯ
ʱʫʠʮ,ʤʡʩʡʱ:ʭʩʰ
ʩʩ
ʴʠʮ3 ʩʴʬʤʬ ʧʮʸʠʺʮ .ʠ
ʤʬʧʮ,ʬʬʥ
ʧʮ,ʤʬ ʥ
ʧ:ʭʩ
ʰʩ
ʩʴʠʮ3 ʬʱʧʩ ʩ
ʺʮ .ʡ
ʷʣʩ
ʩʧʤʥʭʣʠʤʩ
ʰʩʩ
ʴʠʮ,ʬʥ
ʴʩʨʤʺʥʨʩʹ:ʭʩʰ
ʩʩ
ʴʠʮ3 ʩʴʬʤʬ ʧʮʸʠʺʮ .ʢ
ʤʬʧʮ,ʬʬʥ
ʧʮ,ʤʡʩʡʱ:ʭʩʰ
ʩʩ
ʴʠʮ3 ʩʴʬʤʬ ʧʮʸʠʺʮ .ʣ

1/8
1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯ ʧʡʮ
:3 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʯ
ʥʹʩ
ʲʤʺʸʣʢ
ʤʬʸʺʥ
ʩʡʭʩ
ʠʺʮʤʠʥ
ʤʭʩ
ʠʡʤʮʤʮ.ʤʠʩ
ʸʯʨʸʱʥʺʥ
ʩʸʢ
ʩʱʯ
ʥʹʩ
ʲʯʩ
ʡʸʹʷʤʺʠʷʣʥʡʤʸʷʧʮʡ
ʯ
ʥ
ʫʩʱʭʸʥ
ʢʠʩ
ʤʹʤʴʩʹʧ .ʠ
ʬ
ʡʬʡʮʭʸʥ
ʢ .ʡ
ʩ
ʺʡʩ
ʱʠʬʤʴʩʹʧʭʸʥ
ʢ .ʢ
ʤʠʶʥ
ʺʤʰʺʹʮ .ʣ

:4 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?2000 ʺʰʹʡ1000-ʬ8.6 ʬʹʺʥ ʷʥʰ
ʩʺʺʺʥ ʮʺʸʥʲʩʹʺʥʲʮʹʮʠʩʤʤʮ
2000 ʺʰʹʡʩʧʺʥʣʩʬ1000 -ʬʤʰʹʬʩʢʣʲʺʥʥ
ʮʩʸʷʮ8.6 .ʠ
2000 ʺʰ
ʹʬʲʶ ʥ
ʮʮʡʺʮʺʥ ʣʩ
ʬ1000 -ʬʭʥʩ28 ʬ
ʩʢʣʲʺʥʥ
ʮʩʸʷʮ8.6 .ʡ
2000 ʺʰʹʳʥʱʣʲʥ ʣʬ
ʩʹ ʺʥ
ʣʬʥʩ1000 -ʬʭʥ
ʩ28 ʬ
ʩʢʣʲʺʥʥ
ʮʩʸʷʮ8.6 .ʢ
2000 ʺʰʹʡʩʧʺʥʣʩʬ1000 -ʬʭʩʰ
ʹ5 ʬʩʢʣʲʺʥʥ
ʮʩʸʷʮ8.6 .ʣ

:5 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
:-ʬʱʧʩʩ
ʺʮʤʬʧʮʬʹ(case fatality) ʺʥʩʰ
ʬʨʷʤʸʥʲʩʹ
.ʤʴʥ
ʷʺʤʺʥʠʡʥ
ʦʤʤʬʧʮʡʥʬʧʹʭʩʹʰʠʤʪʱʪʥ ʺʮʺʸʣʢ ʥ
ʮʯʮʦʺʴʥ
ʷʺʡʺʮʩʥʱʮʤʬ ʧʮʮʺʥʥʮʤʩʸʷʮ .ʠ
ʤʩʩ
ʱʥʬ
ʫʥʠʤʺʥʠʡʤʢʩʤʰʯʥʩ
ʹʩʸʭʲʭʩʹʰʠʤʪʱʪʥʺʮʤʰʩ
ʣʮʡʭʩ ʹʩʡʫʡʬʨʷʩʸʷʮ .ʡ
ʤʹʩ ʹʷʤʤʩʩʱʥ
ʬʫʥ
ʠʤʬʬʫʪʥ
ʺʮʺʥʥʮʤʺʥ ʡʩ
ʱʬ ʬ ʫʮʺʥʥ
ʮʩʸʷʮ .ʢ
ʤʴʥ
ʷʺʤʺʥ
ʠʡʤʩ ʩ
ʱʥʬ
ʫʥʠʡʺʥʥ
ʮʤʩ ʸʷʮʬ ʬ
ʫʪʥʺʮʯʮʦʺʴʥ
ʷʺʡʺʮʩʥʱʮʤʬ ʧʮʮʺʥʥʮʤʩʸʷʮ .ʣ

:6 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
:ʠʩ
ʤ(age standardized rate) ʬʩʢ
ʬʯʰ ʷʥʺʮʸʥʲʩ
ʹʡʹʥ ʮʩʹʤʺʸʨʮ
ʬʩ
ʢʤʺʲʴʹʤʬ ʥ
ʸʨʰʪʥʺʺʥ ʩ
ʱʥʬʫʥʠʯʩʡʤʠʥ
ʬʧʺʩʸʥʲʩ
ʹ ʺʥ
ʥ
ʹʤʬ .ʠ
ʺʥʩ
ʱʥʬʫʥ
ʠʯ ʩ
ʡʭʩ ʠʬʩ
ʢʡʭʩ ʬʣʡʤʤʺʥʡʩ
ʹʧʺʠʹʩ ʢʣʤʬ .ʡ
ʯ
ʩ
ʮʤʤʰ ʺʹʮʡʤʰ ʥʹʺʥʢʬ ʴʺʤʭʲʺʥ ʩ
ʱʥʬ
ʫʥʠʯʩʡʺʥ
ʥ
ʹʤʬ .ʢ
ʺʥʩ
ʱʥʬʫʥ
ʠʯ ʩʡʭʩʩʮʬʥʢʤʺʥʮʺʩʸʥ
ʲʩʹʯʩʡʺʥ
ʥ
ʹʤʬ .ʣ

:7 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʩ
ʩʱʥ
ʬʫʥ
ʠʡʺʥ
ʠʶʮʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʺʠʺʥʬʲʤʬʬʥ
ʫʩʭʩʠʡʤʭʩ ʡʶʮʤʮʤʮ
ʺʥʰ
ʥʫʰʺʥʡʥʹʺʤʬ ʫ .ʠ
ʺʥʲʸʠʩʤʡʤʩʩ
ʬʲ .ʡ
ʤʬʧʮʤʪʹʮʺʥ ʫ
ʸʠʺʤ .ʢ
ʤʬ
ʧʮʤʬ ʹʺʥʩ
ʰʬʨʷʤʸʥ ʲʩ
ʹʡʤʣʩ ʸʩ .ʣ

:8 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʩ
ʩʱʥ
ʬʫʥ
ʠʡʺʥ
ʠʶʮʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʺʠʣʩ
ʸʥʤʬʭʩʬʥ
ʫʩʭʩʡʶʮʤʮʩ ʮ
ʺʥʰ
ʥʫʰʺʥʡʥʹʺʤʬ ʫ .ʠ
ʺʥʲʸʠʩ
ʤʤʸʥ ʲʩʹʡʤʣʩʸʩ .ʡ
ʤʬʧʮʤʪʹʮʺʥ ʸʶ
ʷʺʤ .ʢ
ʤʬʧʮʤʬ
ʹʺʥ ʩ
ʰʬʨʷʤʸʥ ʲʩ
ʹʡʤʩ ʬ
ʲ .ʣ

:9 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʸʷʩʭʩ
ʠʡʤʮʤʮ,ʤʬʧʮʤʺʠʠʴʸʮʥ
ʰʩ
ʠʬʡʠʺʥ ʥ
ʮʡʫʲʮʹʹʣʧʬʥʴʩ
ʨʧʺʥʴ
ʤʬʲʩʤʬʧʮʤʬ
ʹʺʥʠʶʮʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩ
ʹ .ʠ
ʣʸʩʤʬʧʮʤʬ
ʹʺʥʠʶʮʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩ
ʹ .ʡ
ʤʬʲʩʤʬʧʮʤʬ
ʹʺʥʲʸʠʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩ
ʹ .ʢ
ʣʸʩʤʬʧʮʤʬ
ʹʺʥʲʸʠʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩ
ʹ .ʣ

2/8
 1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯʧʡʮ
:10 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
:-ʫʸʣʢʥ
ʮʤʬʧʮʬʯʥʫʩ
ʱʭʸʥʢ
ʤʬʧʮʤʺʥʧʺʴʺʤʬʯ
ʥʫʩ
ʱʤʺʠʬ ʩ
ʣʢʮ,ʭʩ
ʩ
ʷʠʥʤʹʫ,ʭʸʥ
ʢ .ʠ
ʳʱʥʰʤʰ
ʺʹʮʪʥʥʩ
ʺʡʳʩʷʲʯʴʥʠʡʤʬʧʮʬʭʸʥ
ʢʸʹʠʭʸʥʢ .ʡ
ʤʬʧʮʤʭʲʩ ʸʷʮʸʹʷʥʬʹʩʸʹʠʭʸʥʢ .ʢ
ʤʬʧʮʤʭʲʤʮʥ ʣʮʸʹʷʥʬʹʩʸʹʠʭʸʥʢ .ʣ

:11 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʬʧʮʬʯ
ʥʫʩ
ʱʯʣʮʥʠʺʬʡʷʬʸʺʥ ʩ
ʡʤʸʩ ʹʩʤʪʸʣʤʠʩ ʤʸʷʧʮʬʹʺʩ ʰʡʺʤʦ ʩʠ
ʩ
ʡʩʨʷʩ ʴʱʥ
ʸʴʨʸʥʤʥʷʸʷʧʮ .ʠ
cross-sectional/prevalence study - ʪʺʧ/ʺʥ
ʠʶʮʩʤʸʷʧʮ .ʡ
ʣʥ
ʷʩʮʺʥʶʥʡʷ .ʢ
ʤʠʥ ʬ
ʧʺʬ ʹʣʧʠʤʸʷʮʸʥ ʠʩʺ .ʣ

:12 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
:ʠʥ
ʤʯʬʴʸʲʥ
ʠʬʡʬʡʮʭʸʥ
ʢʠʸʷʰ ʹʤʰʺʹʮ
ʤʴʩ
ʹʧʬʩ
ʺʡʩ
ʱʠʬʸʹʷʡʸʥʹʷʥʠʶʥ
ʺʬʩ
ʺʡʩʱʸʹʷʡʸʥʹʷ .ʠ
ʠʶʥ
ʺʬʩ
ʺʡʩ
ʱʠʬʸʹʷʡʸʥʹʷʥʤʴʩ
ʹʧʬʩ
ʺʡʩʱʸʹʷʡʸʥʹʷ .ʡ
ʤʴʩ
ʹʧʬʷʸʸʥʹʷ .ʢ
ʤʴʩ
ʹʧʬʠʬʭʬʥʠ,ʠʶ
ʥʺʬʸʥ
ʹʷ .ʣ

:13 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
ʯ
ʥʫʩ
ʱʤʬʲʭʩʰʨʷʭʩʰ
ʥʰʩ
ʮʡʯ ʩ
ʸʩʴʱʠʺʬʩ
ʨʰʺʲʴʹʤʺʷʩ ʣʡʬʤʸʨʮʡʭʩʹʰʬʲʤʹʲʰʩ ʡʩ
ʨʷʴʱʥʸʴʨʸʥ ʤʥʷʸʷʧʮ
ʤʰʷʱʮʤ,ʭʩ
ʬʡʬʡʮʭʩʮʥʸʢʥʠʺʥʩ
ʨʤʺʲʴʹʤʯʩʠʥʷʤʡʥʮʸʹʷʤʹʤʧʰ ʤʡ0.4 = RR ʠʶʮʰ.ʡʬʳʷʺʤʡʺʥ ʷʬʬ
:ʠʩʤ
ʡʬʳʷʺʤʡʺʥ ʷʬʬʭʩ
ʹʰʬʹʯ ʥ
ʫʩ
ʱʤʺʠʯ ʩʨʷʮʯ ʩ
ʸʩ
ʴʱʠ .ʠ
.ʡʬʳʷʺʤʡʺʥ ʷʬʬʭʩ
ʹʰʬʹʯ ʥ
ʫʩʱʤʺʠʬ ʩ
ʣʢʮʯ ʩ
ʸʩ
ʴʱʠ .ʡ
ʡʬʳʷʺʤʡʺʥʷʬʬʭʩʸʡʢʥʭʩ
ʹʰʬʹʯ ʥ
ʫʩ
ʱʤʺʠʯ ʩʨʷʮʯ ʩ
ʸʩ
ʴʱʠ .ʢ
.1-ʮʪʥ
ʮʰʠʥʤʥʺʥʩʤRR-ʬʺʥ ʲʮʹʮʯʩʠ .ʣ

:ʭʩʠʡʤʭʩʰʥ
ʺʰʬʺʥ
ʱʧʩʩ
ʺʮʺʥ ʠʡʤʺʥʬʠʹʤʩʺʹ
ʡʬʡʬʤʯʨʸʱʭʲʭʩʬʥ
ʧʥʬʠʹʰ,ʡʬʡʬʤʯʨʸʱʬʹʤʠʥ ʬʧʺʬʲʤʴʷʺʩ ʩ
ʺʹʺʲʴʹʤʷʥ ʣʡʬʺʰ ʮʬʲʤʹʲʰ ʹʸʷʧʮʡ
ʯʨʸʱʡʥʷʬʹʭʩ
ʹʰʠʩʫʤʺʩ ʩ
ʤʤʠʶʥʺʤ.ʤʴʷʺʩ ʩʺʹʩʬʢ
ʸʤʩ ʡʢʬ(ʡʬʡʬʯ
ʨʸʱʠʬʬ) ʭʩʠʩʸʡʭʩʹʰʠʭʺʮʥʲʬʥ
ʺʥ
ʷʬʬʯʥʫʩ
ʱʤʺʠʤʬʲʮʤʴʷʺʩ ʩʺʹ- ʤʰʷʱʮʤ.ʭʩʠʩ
ʸʡʭʩʹʰʠʺʮʥ ʲʬʤʴʷʬʹʸʺʥʩʺʥʬʥʣʢʺʥ ʩʥ
ʮʫʥʺʹʡʬʡʬʤ
.ʺʥʩ
ʸʢʩ
ʱʯʥʹʩʲʤʰʺʹʮʯʥʡʹʧʡʧʷʬʰʠʬʭʩʰʥʺʰʤʣʥ ʡʩʲʡ.ʡʬʡʬʤʯ
ʨʸʱʡ

:14 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʦʸʷʧʮʢ ʥ
ʱʤʦ ʩ
ʠ
Case-Control - ʺʸʥ
ʷʩ
ʡ-ʤʸʷʮ .ʠ
Prospective Cohort study - ʩ
ʡʩ
ʨʷʴʱʥ
ʸʴʤʡʷʥʲ .ʡ
ʩ
ʲʡʨʩʰ
ʩʬʷʩ
ʥʱʩ
ʰ .ʢ
Retrospective Cohort study - ʩ
ʡʩ
ʨʷʴʱʥ
ʸʨʸʤʡʷʥʲ .ʣ

3/8
 1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯʧʡʮ
:15 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?Confounder -ʬʡʬʡʮʤʤʰ
ʺʹʮʤʠʥ
ʤʤʮʸʠʥ
ʺʮʤʸʷʧʮʡ
ʺʥ
ʩʸʢ
ʩʱʯ
ʥ
ʹʩʲ .ʠ
ʡʬʡʬʤʯ
ʨʸʱ .ʡ
ʤʴʷʺʩ
ʩʺʹ .ʢ
ʣʧʩ
ʡʯʥ
ʹʩʲʥʡʬʡʬʤʯ
ʨʸʱ .ʣ

:ʭʩʠʡʤʭʩ
ʰʥʺʰ
ʬʺʥʱʧʩʩʺʮʺʥʠʡʤʺʥ ʬʠʹʤʺʹʮʧ
.360 ʭʤʮʥ
ʸʨʴʰ2010 ʺʰ
ʹʡʥ,ʭʩ
ʹʰʠ9,000 ʭʩ
ʸʢʭʩʰʥʬʠʡ:ʭʩʡʥ
ʹʩʩ
ʰʹʮ2010 ʺʰʹʬʹʤʺʥ ʮʺʩ ʰʥ
ʺʰʥʬʡʷʺʤ
.600 ʭʤʮʥʸʨʴʰʤʰʹʤʺʥʠʡʥ,ʭʩʹʰ
ʠ18,000 ʭʩʸʢʭʩ
ʬʷʣʡ

:16 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?(ʭʩ
ʬʷʣʡ300 -ʥʭʩ
ʰʥ
ʬʠʡ180) ʭʩ
ʨʬʧʥ
ʮʤʤʸʩʨʴʤʩʸʴʱʮʬʲʪʮʺʱʤʡʯ ʥ
ʫʰʭʩʠʡʤʮʤʮ
ʨʬʧʥ
ʮʸʴʱʮʩ ʴʬʺʥʥ
ʹʤʬʯʺʩʰʠʬ .ʠ
ʸʺʥʩʡʥ
ʨʭʩʰʥ
ʬʠʡʩʺʥ
ʠʩʸʡʤʡʶʮʤʹʸʮʥʠʤʦ .ʡ
ʸʺʥʩʡʥ
ʨʭʩʬʷʣʡʩʺʥ
ʠʩʸʡʤʡʶʮʤʹʸʮʥʠʤʦ .ʢ
ʤʮʥʣʭʩ
ʸʲʤʩʺʹʡʡʶ ʮʤʹʸʮʥʠʤʦ .ʣ

:17 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?2010 ʺʰ
ʹʡʭʩ
ʰʥ
ʬʠʡʩ
ʮʬʥ
ʢʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥ
ʤʮ
4% .ʠ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ2 .ʡ
0.2 .ʢ
20% .ʣ

:18 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?2010 ʺʰ
ʹʡʭʩ
ʬʷʣʡʩ
ʮʬʥ
ʢʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥ
ʤʮ
3.3% .ʠ
17.7% .ʡ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ1.7 .ʢ
0.17 .ʣ

:19 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʱʥ
ʧʩʤʺʩ
ʱʥʬʫʥ
ʠʠʩ
ʤʭʩ
ʬʷʣʹʤʧʰ
ʤʡ,RR ,ʭʩ
ʸʥʲʩ
ʹʤʱʧʩʥ
ʤʮ
1.2 .ʠ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ1.2 .ʡ
0.85 .ʢ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ0.85 .ʣ

:20 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
:ʭʩ
ʠʡʤʮʸʺʥʩ
ʡʯʥ
ʫʰʤʺʠʸʧʡ?ʸʺʥ ʩʲʥ
ʸʢʡʶʮʤʤʴʩʠ
20% ʬ
ʹʤʺʥʮʺʳʣʥ
ʲʭʹʹʩʩʫʭʩʰʥ
ʬʠʡʸʺʥʩʲʥ
ʸʢʡʶʮʤ .ʠ
20% ʬʹʤʺʥ
ʮʺʳʣʥʲʭʹʹʩʩ
ʫʭʩʬʷʣʡʸʺʥʩʲʥ
ʸʢʡʶʮʤ .ʡ
ʤʤʦʡʶʮʡʭʩʸʲʤʩʺʹ .ʢ
ʭʩʰ
ʥʺʰʤʮʺʲʣʬʯʺʩ
ʰʠʬ .ʣ

:ʭʩ
ʠʡʤʭʩ
ʰʥ
ʺʰʬʺʥ
ʱʧʩ
ʩʺʮʺʥ
ʠʡʤʺʥ
ʬʠʹʤʩ
ʺʹ

4/8
 1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯ
ʧʡʮ
ʥ
ʸʨʴʰʤʰ
ʹʤʺʥ
ʠʡ.ʭʩ
ʹʰ8,000 ʭʤʮ,ʭʩ
ʹʰʠ15,000 ʸʩ
ʲʡʥ
ʸʢ2010 ʺʰ
ʹʡ.ʬʠʲʸʦ
ʩʸʩ
ʲʤʮʤʺʥ ʮʺʩʰ
ʥʺʰʥʴʱʠʰ
.ʭʩ
ʹʰʭʤʮ150 ,ʭʩ
ʹʰʠ300 ʫ"ʤʱ

:21 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʦʸʥ
ʲʩʹʠʸʷʰʪʩ
ʠʥ,ʬʠʲʸʦ
ʩʸʩ
ʲʡ2010 ʺʰ
ʹʡʭʩʹʰʬʹʤʺʥʮʺʤʸʥʲʩʹʥʤʮ
ʩ
ʬʥ
ʢʱʤʺʥʮʺʸʥʲʩ
ʹʥʤʦ,1.9% .ʠ
ʩ
ʮʬʥʢʤʺʥ
ʮʺʸʥʲʩ
ʹʥʤʦ,1.9% .ʡ
ʩʬʥ
ʢʱʤʺʥʮʺʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥʤʦ,1% .ʢ
ʩʮʬʥ
ʢʤʺʥʮʺʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥʤʦ,1% .ʣ

:22 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʦʸʥ
ʲʩʹʠʸʷʰʪʩ
ʠʥ,ʬʠʲʸʦ
ʩʸʩ
ʲʡ2010 ʺʰ
ʹʡʭʩʸʡʢʬʹʤʺʥʮʺʤʸʥʲʩʹʥʤʮ
ʩ
ʬʥʢ
ʱʤʺʥʮʺʸʥʲʩ
ʹʥʤʦ,2.1% .ʠ
ʩ
ʮʬʥʢʤʺʥ
ʮʺʸʥʲʩ
ʹʥʤʦ,2.1% .ʡ
ʩ
ʬʥ
ʢʱʤʺʥʮʺʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥʤʦ,1% .ʢ
ʩ
ʮʬʥ
ʢʤʺʥʮʺʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥʤʦ,1% .ʣ

:ʭʩ
ʠʡʤʭʩʰ
ʥʺʰ
ʬʺʥʱʧʩ
ʩʺʮʺʥ ʠʡʤʺʥʬʠʹʤʩʺʹ
5 ,ʺʥ
ʷʥʰ
ʩʺ300 ʥ
ʷʣʡʰ.ʭʩ
ʰʹʹʮʧʬʩ
ʢʣʲʥʤʰ
ʹʬʩʢʮʤʷʣʡʰʤʺʥʮʺʤ,ʺʥ
ʰʹʲʮʬʹʯ ʤʩ
ʰʡʡʤʺʥʮʺʤʤʷʣʡʰ
.ʤʰ
ʥʠʺʺʥ
ʡʷʲʡʺʮʣʧʠʥʤʮʨʱʠʳʷʺʤʺʥʡʷʲʡʥʺʮ2 ,ʩ
ʮʥʠʺʴʺʥʥ
ʮʥ ʺʮʭʤʮ

:23 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?(ʹʮʧʣʲʤʰ
ʹʬʩ
ʢ)ʥ
ʦʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤʺʠʸʷʰʪʩʠ
ʭʩ
ʣʬʩʺʺʥ
ʮʺ .ʠ
ʺʥ
ʨʥʲʴʺʺʥ
ʮʺ .ʡ
ʺʥʷʥ
ʰʩʺʺʺʥ
ʮʺ .ʢ
ʣʧʥʩ
ʮʭʹʤʬʯ ʩ
ʠ .ʣ

:24 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?(ʺʥ
ʡʩʱʩ
ʴʬʤʺʥ
ʮʺ) ʺʩ ʰ
ʥʩʶʸʥ
ʴʥʸʴʤʤʺʥʮʺʤʩ
ʡʢʬʯʥ
ʫʰʭʩ
ʠʡʤʮʤʮ
25% ʠʩ ʤʤʮʺʱʠʳʷʺʤʬ ʹʺʩ
ʰʥʩ
ʶʸʥ
ʴʥ
ʸʴʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤ .ʠ
3.3% ʠʩʤʩʮʥʠʺʴʺʥʥ
ʮʬʹʺʩ
ʰʥʩ
ʶʸʥ
ʴʥ
ʸʴʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤ .ʡ
1.7% ʠʩʤʤʮʨʱʠʳʷʺʤʬ ʹʺʩ
ʰʥʩ
ʶʸʥ
ʴʥ
ʸʴʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤ .ʢ
62.5% ʠʩʤʤʰ
ʥʠʺʬʹʺʩ
ʰʥʩ
ʶʸʥ
ʴʥ
ʸʴʤʤʺʥ
ʮʺʤ .ʣ

:ʭʩʠʡʤʭʩʰʥʺʰʬʺʥʱʧʩ
ʩʺʮʺʥ
ʠʡʤʺʥ ʬʠʹʤʺʹʥ
ʬʹ
ʭʲʸʠʹʤʥʭʩ
ʠʩʸʡʭʤʮ180 ,ʭʩ
ʨʰʣʥ
ʨʱ400 ʥ
ʩʤʡʷʲʮʤʺʬʩ ʧʺʡ.ʣʥ
ʲʩʱʬʭʩʨʰʣʥ
ʨʱʺʶʥʡʷʩʸʧʠʡʷʲʮʲʶʥ
ʡ
.ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥʲʮʬʥ
ʡʱʬʥʬʧʤʭʩ
ʨʰ ʣʥʨʱ50 ʣʥʲʡʷʲʮʤʺʴʥʷʺʪʬʤʮʡ.ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ
ʲ

:25 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʡʷʲʮʤʺʴʥ
ʷʺʺʬʩ
ʧʺʡʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ
ʲʬʹʺʩ
ʺʣʥ
ʷʰʤʺʥ
ʠʶʮʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥ
ʤʮ
55% .ʠ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ55 .ʡ
45% .ʢ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ45 .ʣ

5/8
 1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯʧʡʮ
:26 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʡʷʲʮʤʺʴʥ
ʷʺʳʥ
ʱʡʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ
ʲʬʹʺʩ
ʺʣʥ
ʷʰʤʺʥ
ʠʶʮʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥ
ʤʮ
67.5% .ʠ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ67.5 .ʡ
65% .ʢ
ʳʬʠʬ65 .ʣ

:27 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʴʥ
ʷʺʤʪʬʤʮʡʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ
ʲʬʹʺʸʡʨʶʮʤʺʥ
ʲʸʠʩ
ʤʤʸʥ
ʲʩʹʥ
ʤʮ
27.8% .ʠ
ʳʬ
ʠʬ27.8 .ʡ
25% .ʢ
35% .ʣ

:ʭʩʠʡʤʭʩ ʰ
ʥʺʰ
ʬʺʥʱʧʩ
ʩʺʮʺʥʠʡʤʺʥ ʬʠʹʤʺʹʮʧ
ʥʷʬʥʧʯ
ʤʤʩʴʬʭʩʷʣʡʰʺʶʥ
ʡʷʬʹʤʩ ʶʦ
ʩʮʥ
ʣʰʸʤʲʶʥʡ.ʭʩʸʢʥ
ʡʮʡʺʬʲʹʺʲʩ ʰ
ʮʬʹʣʧʯ ʥ
ʱʩʧʷʣʡʹʸʷʧʮʲʶʥ ʡ
ʤʶʥʡʷʤʦʩ
ʠʬʥʲʣʩʠʬʭʩ
ʷʣʡʰʤ.ʥ
ʡʶʬʴʤʬʡʩʷ'ʡʤʶʥʡʷʥ,ʹʣʧʤʯʥʱʩʧʡʬʥʴʩ
ʨʤʬʡʩʷ'ʠʤʶʥʡʷ,ʺʥ ʶʥ
ʡʷʩʺʹʬ
6ʥʬʧ'ʡʤʶʥ
ʡʷʡ.ʺʬʲʹʡʥʬʧ150 ʪʥ
ʺʮʭʩʷʣʡʰ2 'ʠʤʶʥʡʷʡ.ʩʠʷʩʨʱʩ
ʨʨʱʤʠʬʥʸʷʥʧʤʠʬʭʢ ʥʭʩʫʩ
ʩʹʭʤ
.150 ʪʥ
ʺʮʭʩ ʷʣʡʰ

:28 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʲʶʥ
ʡʹʸʷʧʮʤʢʥʱʤʮ
ʩ
ʥ
ʱʩʰ .ʠ
ʤʡʷʥʲ .ʡ
ʪʺʧ .ʢ
ʺʸʥ
ʷʩ
ʡʤʸʷʮ .ʣ

:29 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʸʷʧʮʡʹʩ,Blinding ,ʺʥ
ʩʮʱʺʮʸʤʦ ʩʠ
ʺʹʬʥʹʮʺʥʩ
ʮʱ .ʠ
ʤʣʩʧʩʺʥ
ʩ
ʮʱ .ʡ
ʤʬʥ
ʴʫʺʥʩ
ʮʱ .ʢ
ʺʲʡʥʸʮʺʥʩ
ʮʱ .ʣ

:30 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʺʠʸʷʰʤʶʥ
ʡʷʤʪʩ
ʠʥ'ʠʤʶʥ
ʡʷʡʤʠʥ ʬʧʺʤʺʥ ʲʸʠʩʤʸʥʲʩʹʤʮ
ʺʥ
ʡʸʲʺʤʤʺʶ ʥʡʷʥʦʥ,ʳʬʠʬ13.3 .ʠ
ʺʸʥʷʩʡʤʺʶʥʡʷʥʦʥ,ʳʬʠʬ13.3 .ʡ
ʭʩʴʥʹʧʤʺʶ ʥ
ʡʷʥ ʦ
ʥ13.3% .ʢ
ʭʩʸʷʮʤʺʶ ʥ
ʡʷʥ ʦ
ʥ13.3% .ʣ

:31 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʺʠʸʷʰʤʶʥ
ʡʷʤʪʩ
ʠʥ'ʡʤʶʥ
ʡʷʡʤʠʥʬʧʺʤʺʥ ʲʸʠʩ
ʤʸʥ ʲʩ
ʹʤʮ
ʺʸʥʷʩʡʤʺʶ ʥ
ʡʷʥ
ʦʥ,ʳʬʠʬ40 .ʠ
ʺʥ
ʡʸʲʺʤʤʺʶ ʥ
ʡʷʥ
ʦʥ,ʳʬʠʬ40 .ʡ
ʭʩʸʷʮʤʺʶʥ
ʡʷʥʦʥ,40% .ʢ
ʭʩʴʥʹʧʤʺʶʥ
ʡʷʥʦʥ,40% .ʣ

6/8
 1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯʧʡʮ
:32 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʪʺʰ
ʷʱʮʤʮ?ʱʥ
ʧʩʤʺʩ
ʩʱʥ
ʬʫʥ
ʠʠʩʤ'ʡʤʶʥʡʷʹʤʧʰ ʤʡ,RR ,ʭʩ
ʸʥʲʩ
ʹʤʱʧʩʥ ʤʮ
ʺʬʲʹʺʲʩʰʮʡʬ ʩ
ʲʩʯʥ
ʱʩʧʤ,0.3 .ʠ
ʥʡʹʮʺʹʤʬʸʥʱʠʥʺʲʹʬʯ ʥ
ʫʩ
ʱʭʸʥʢʤʥʥ
ʤʮʯ ʥ
ʱʩʧʤ,0.3 .ʡ
ʺʬʲʹʺʲʩʰʮʡʬʩʲʩʯ
ʥʱʩ
ʧʤ,3 .ʢ
ʥ
ʡʹʮʺʹʤʬʸʥ ʱʠʥʺʲʹʬʯʥʫ
ʩʱʭʸʥʢʤʥʥ
ʤʮʯʥʱʩ
ʧʤ,3 .ʣ

:ʭʩʠʡʤʭʩʰʥ
ʺʰʬʺʥ ʱʧʩ
ʩʺʮʺʥʠʡʤʺʥ ʬʠʹʤʺʲʡʸʠ
ʭʩ
ʷʣʡʰʬʥʥʹʥʤʥʬʷʹʮʳʣʥʲʭʲʭʩʷʣʡʰʺʶʥ
ʡʷʤʸʧʡʰ.ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ ʲʥʤʩʦ
ʩʥ
ʥʬʨʡʺʫʹʥʮʮʤʩ ʴʶʯʩʡʸʹʷʤʷʣʡʰ
1001 -ʥ.ʺʫʹʥʮʮʤʩʴʶʤʩ
ʦʩ
ʥʥ
ʬʨʡʭʩʴʥ
ʶ700 ʭʤʮ,ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ ʲʭʲʭʩ ʷʣʡʰ1001 ʥ
ʠʶʮʰ.ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥʲʠʬʬ
ʬʲʥ
ʰʲʥ2X2 ʤʬʡʨʡʭʩ ʰ
ʥʺʰʤʺʠʥʡʩ
ʶʤ.ʺʫʹʥʮʮʤʩʴʶʤʩʦ
ʩʥʥ
ʬʨʡʭʩʴʥʶʠʬ700 ʭʤʮ,ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ ʲʠʬʬʭʩʷʣʡʰ
.ʺʥ
ʬʠʹʤ

:33 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʦʸʷʧʮʢ ʥ
ʱʤʦ ʩ
ʠ
ʺʸʥ
ʷʩ
ʡʤʸʷʮ .ʠ
ʪʺʧ .ʡ
ʨʸʥʤʥ
ʷ .ʢ
ʩʥ
ʱʩʰ .ʣ

:34 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʤʠʶʥ
ʺʤʤʮ.ʭʩ
ʠʺʮʤʸʹʷʤʣʣʮʺʠʡʹʧ,ʸʷʧʮʤʢ
ʥʱʬʭʠʺʤʡ
5.4 .ʠ
4.4 .ʡ
3.4 .ʢ
2.4 .ʣ

:35 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʬʷʹʮʳʣʥ
ʲʮʭʩ
ʬʡʥ
ʱʤʭʩ
ʷʣʡʰ
ʤʺʶʥ
ʡʷʺʠʸʷʰʪʩ ʠ
ʭʩʸʷʮ .ʠ
ʭʩʴʥʹʧ .ʡ
ʩ
ʥ
ʱʩʰʺʶ ʥ
ʡʷ .ʢ
ʣʧʥ
ʩʮʭʹʤʬʯ ʩ
ʠ .ʣ

:36 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
ʤʩ
ʴʶʭʲʩ
ʺʡʩ
ʱʠʬʸʹʷʡʤʸʥ
ʹʷʥ,ʬ
ʷʹʮʳʣʥ
ʲʭʲʩʺʡʩ
ʱʸʹʷʡʤʸʥʹʷʡʹʧʮʬʥʮʺʫʹʥ
ʮʮʤʣʥʡʲʹʠʶʮʰ
?"ʡʹʧʮʬʥ
ʮʤʣʥ
ʡʲ" ʤʰ
ʺʹʮʬʠʸʷʰʪʩ
ʠ.ʤʩ
ʦʩ
ʥʥ
ʬʨʡʺʫʹʥ ʮʮ
ʬ
ʡʬʡʮʭʸʥʢ .ʠ
ʠʶ ʥ
ʺ .ʡ
ʤʴʩʹʧ .ʢ
ʣʧʥʩ
ʮʭʹʥ ʬʯʩ
ʠ .ʣ

:ʭʩʠʡʤʭʩ ʰ
ʥʺʰʬʺʥʱʧʩʩ
ʺʮʺʥ ʠʡʤʺʥ ʬʠʹʤʺʲʡʸʠ
,ʡʤʦ
ʤʯʷʺʭʲʤʠʥ ʥʹʤʤʫ ʸʲʰ,ʤʸʩ
ʷʣʡʪʸʥʶʠʬʬʯʩ
ʡʥʬʢ
ʥʮʤʬʹʺʩ ʨʴʥʠʤʷʩʣʡʬʹʣʧʯ ʥʰ
ʩʱʯʧʡʮʺʫʸʲʤʭʹʬ
250 ʥ
ʠʶʮʰ.ʭʩʷʣʡʰ500 ʫ "ʤʱʺʥʷʩ
ʣʡʤʩʺʹʡʥʷʣʡʰ.ʭʣʺʮʩ ʢʣʮʤʸʩʴʱʺʷʩ ʣʡʠʩʤʹ,gold standard
ʤʷʩʣʡʡʭʩʩ
ʬʩʬʹʥʩʤ270 ,ʤʬʥʫʤʶʥʡʷʤʪʥʺʮ.ʤʹʣʧʤʤʷʩʣʡʡʭʩ ʩʡʥ
ʩʧ200 ʭʫʥʺʮ,ʤʩʮʰʠʮʭʩʬʡʥʱʤʭʩʷʣʡʰ
.ʺʥʠʡʤʺʥʬʠʹʤʬʲʤʰ ʲʥ2X2 ʤʬʡʨʤʰʡ.ʤʹʣʧʤ

7/8
1-13|14-15|16-20|21-22|23-24|25-27|28-32|33-36|37-40M :ʯ
ʧʡʮʣʥ
ʷ 000 'ʱʮʯʧʡʮ
:37 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʯ
ʩʧʡʺʤʬʹʺʥ
ʹʩʢ
ʸʤʤʮ
80% .ʠ
42.9% .ʡ
33% .ʢ
25% .ʣ

:38 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʯ
ʩʧʡʺʤʬʹʺʥ
ʩʬʥ
ʢʱʤʤʮ
88% .ʠ
66.7% .ʡ
33% .ʢ
25% .ʣ

:39 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʯ
ʩʧʡʺʤʬʹʩ
ʡʥʩ
ʧʤʩ
ʥʡʩ
ʰʤʸʹʥ
ʫʤʮ
87% .ʠ
66.7% .ʡ
25% .ʢ
42.9% .ʣ

:40 ʸʴʱʮʤʬʠʹ
?ʯ
ʩʧʡʺʤʬʹʩ
ʬʩʬʹʤʩ
ʥʡʩ
ʰʤʸʹʥ
ʫʤʮ
81.5% .ʠ
33% .ʡ
42.9% .ʢ
66.7% .ʣ

--- ʯ
ʧʡʮʤʳʥ
ʱ---

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