90 Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) #12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ

3.Бяла книга за отбраната и ВС на Република 9.Arabska, E. 2016. Competence-based training of

България. staff and opportunities of life-long learning, First inter-
4.Доктрина за управление на човешките ре- national scientific conference „Human resources, lead-
сурси във въоръжените сили (НП-1), Заповед на ми- ership and organizational management“, Volume 1,
нистъра на отбраната на Република България №ОХ- 2016, pp. 131-156.
179 от 06. 03. 2013г., с. 7-10. 10.Die Konzeption für die Reservisten und Reser-
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6.Терзиев, В., Арабска, Е. 2016. Компетентно- ното развитие чрез активни политики, издателство
стен модел за социална адаптация на военнослуже- „Примакс”, 375 стр. ISBN 978-619-7242-02-7, Русе,
щите, освободени от военна служба. Национален 2015..
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„Авиационен”, Военновъздушни сили, Съюз на ефективността на социалната адаптация на военно-
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Военен клуб – Плевен: Юбилейна научна конфе- ство „Примакс”, Русе, 2014. 423 стр. ISBN 978-954-
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жещи и членовете на техните семейства, XI Между- 19.National reserve forces status – Romania:
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стр. 233-253. 22.US Code, Title 10, Subtitle E, Part I, Chapter
1005, Section 10141.

CORRUPTION AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Venelin Terziev,
Professor, Ph.D., D.Sc. (National Security), D.Sc. (Ec.),
University of Rousse, Rousse,Bulgaria,
National Military University, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria
Marin Petkov,
Associate Professor, Ph.D.,
National Military University, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria

Abstract: This work researches the dependency national security - corruption. In view of security the signif-
icant fact is that the resulting vulnerable environment is favourable grounds for building positions of being im-
pacted by foreign services, economic and other subjects with which to impact the process of making decisions that
are important to the country in direction that does not correspond to the national interest. We have analysed in
detail corruption’s impact onto the central authorities, the local authorities, the judicial authorities and the economy
of the country.
Key words: corruption, corruption impact, national security.
Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) # 12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ 91
The state, state system, democracy are very sick. dissemination of corruption at all levels and creates pre-
The state is rotten by corruption and crime. The rela- requisites for turning it into norm that is perceived as
tions of business and authority are criminalized. 12 Cor- generally accepted illegitimate one which is not in con-
ruption’s negative impact has several essential dimen- formity with the moral values and principles of func-
sions related to its impact onto national security which tioning of the developed democracies. Nevertheless,
is about several different aspects: internal political and with especially high degree of public danger, as we al-
legal, social and economic, foreign political and inte- ready mentioned in the written work, are the corruption
grational. actions in the top levels of authority, which continu-
The analysis of corruption’s negative impact in the ously erode trust in institutions and the authority of our
administration, for example, includes the following rea- country at international level. In addition to the diffi-
soning of support: culty of proving the wrongdoing because of its compli-
 Corruption undermines trust in democracy in cated character, comparable to „money-laundering”,
its capacity of optimal pattern of society’s functioning. another fact that is not to be underestimated is that dis-
 Corruption contributes for criminalizing the closing the corruption at these levels has always been
environment within the country thus enhancing crime related to infringing especially significant interests and
rate increase. it is accompanied by sharp resistance that is sometimes
 Corruption strengthens the positions of the capable of causing significant social quakes.
grey economy. We could say that corruption practices almost al-
 Corruption demotivates the government ad- ways accompany or create prerequisites for other
ministration in its attempts to work effectively for the crimes and violations. In some cases an important fac-
social prosperity. tor is the trend of „crime predicativity”14, related to the
 Corruption has quite the negative impact onto corruption activity of persons that take up senior state
Bulgaria’s image before the European Union countries, titles - the financial resources acquired this way would
as well as before the countries from all around the be utilized for re-funding and improving the real estate
world. and material status of the persons and accelerate the
Corruption deteriorates the investment climate in motivation for committing new crimes.
the country thus cutting down the level of direct foreign In view of security what is especially important is
investments. the fact that the resulting vulnerable environment is fa-
Corruption in the political area in turn undermines vourable grounds for building positions of being im-
state’s effectiveness since the established procedures pacted by foreign services, economic and other subjects
are being avoided, resources are being wasted, em- with which to impact the process of making decisions
ployes are being employed and raised without any rela- that are important to the country in direction that does
tion to their work whatsoever. Corruption hinders the not correspond to the national interest.
economic development since it causes distortions and As a result of the activities for counteracting cor-
ineffectiveness. ruption and observing the processes related to it, the
In the private sector corruption increases costs main reasons behind the existence of corruption prac-
with the value of the illegal payments, the value of the tices with the participation of persons that take up sen-
negotiations with the state officials and risk of disclo- ior state titles, are the following: poor effectiveness and
sure. Even though some believe corruption cuts down reliability when implementing the systems for control-
the business costs, while avoiding the regulations, the ling the execution (low size of sanctions and no per-
prevailing researchers today are of the opinion that ceivable consequences that makes risk acceptable and
bribes make the state officials create new rules and de- provides the violators with incentives); the difficult
lays. While increasing the costs, at the same time cor- procedures for registering and licensing in the various
ruption distorts the environment while protecting areas; last but not least the guidelines and regulations
against the competition the companies with relations that are hard to understand and necessitate the use of
while maintaining their relative ineffectiveness.13 consultants; the poor selection, insufficient qualifica-
Corruption – significant risk to the national se- tion and training of the employees; the unclear rules on
curity career growth etc.
Corruption is significant risk to the national secu- Below we have reviewed the corruption impact on
rity because of its negative impact and disruptive char- the individual authorities and the economy being ele-
acter on the social environment, the economic develop- ments of national security system.
ment and international image of Bulgaria. Corruption Impact on the central authority
practices directly infringe the normal functioning of the The analyses and researches show that the corrup-
state, they damage its redistributive mechanisms and tion practices in the structures of the executive author-
limit the constitutional rights of the citizens. In this ity are most often related to the implementation of pro-
light the high degree of public tolerance promotes the cedures for the assignation of public procurements. In
this case we highlight the particular authority within the

12 http://nslatinski.org/?q=bg/node/394, professor PhD Niko-
lay Slatinski, website dedicated to researches in the area of
national security.
13 http://bg.wikipedia.org/ - Wikipedia, Corruption [Inter-
net].
14 „Predicate crime” or also known in theory and practice as
„Initial crime”. The convention of the Council of Europe de-
fines the notion “predicate crime” – every crime that resulted
in benefits which could be subject matter of the “money laun-
dering” crime.
92 Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) #12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
context of the topic and the following reasoning. The state titles make up vulnerable social environment that
traditional schemes are related to manipulating the cri- is favourable grounds for building positions of being
teria for assessing the applicants under the procure- impacted by foreign services, economic and other sub-
ments; groundless reasoning of urgent activities; mo- jects with which to impact the process of making man-
nopolization of certain activities by limited number of agerial policies and decisions that are important to the
companies; rotation of contractors; conflict of interest country in direction that does not correspond to the na-
when it comes to composing the evaluation commis- tional interest.
sion; contracting between the client and the contractor Impact onto the local authority
for increasing the bills of quantities concerning the con- Outside the scope of holding and performing pub-
struction and assembly works etc. The corruption be- lic procurements, the most frequent corruption prac-
haviour is demonstrated on behalf of officials, as well tices being performed by the local authority and the
as on behalf of the stakeholder economic subjects. In local administration, are related to:
most cases there is tight involvement along the chain  Formation of lobby15 in the municipal coun-
client-designer/consultant-contractor. Oftentimes the cils and the local administration in order to impact the
companies that are designers/consultants ensure enter- decisions in the benefit of certain interests;
ing contracts for the assignation of public procurements  Economically unreasonable dispositive trans-
for the utilization of their services. In the capacity of actions with municipal properties. In some cases the
division for the assimilation of the agreed commission privileged ones are from the close circle of the mayors
calculations they use various sub-contractors. In many or of the municipal advisors and in order to acquire mu-
cases the announced forecast price for the performance nicipal properties they use dummies as well;
of particular project is significantly increased and there  Utilization of control or permit authorities for
are no clear criteria on defining it. The procurement is personal benefit (including issuance of construction
assigned at a price near the forecast one and this favours permits, change of the statute of agricultural lands and
the contractor on the account of the government struc- coordination of projects). The participants in the cor-
ture. ruption relation are usually at lower level in the official
The corruption practices with the participation of hierarchy and they could act upon their initiative with
persons that take up senior state tiles create prerequi- the cooperation or the will of the superior ones. The un-
sites for the manifestation of risk to the national secu- reasonable delay when it comes to decision-making on
rity that are about: the issuance of permit is usually an indication of asking
 Destructive impact onto the state system for a bribe.
and democratic foundations for society’s function- The corruption practices in this area being a sig-
ing. Corruption deforms the basic principles of legal nificant risk for the national security are manifested
state’s functioning (supremacy of law, irreversibility of mostly in the following directions:
the punishment for the committed crime etc.), as well  Corruption undermines trust in democracy
as the mechanisms for their implementation. An envi- in its capacity of optimal pattern of society’s function-
ronment emerges whose reproduction damages contin- ing;
uously in the long run society’s potential to function  Corruption contributes for criminalizing the
and develop in conformity with the moral values and environment within the country thus enhancing
norms, which make up the grounds for the progress crime rate increase;
achieved by the developed democracies. The corrup-  Corruption strengthens the positions of the
tion practices disrupt citizens’ trust in the institutions in grey economy;
their capacity of guarantee for their fundamental rights  Corruption demotivates the government ad-
and freedoms (equality before the law, equal conditions ministration in its attempts to work effectively for
for doing business, right to protection etc.) and they the social prosperity;
could impact as ruining factor for the government sus-  Corruption deteriorates the investment cli-
tainability at local as well as at national level; mate in the country thus cutting down the level of di-
 Derogation of country’s prestige before the rect foreign investments.
international institutions. Significant damages could  And last, but not least - Loss of national sov-
be suffered by the national security because of probable ereignty. In view of national security what is essential
corruption actions that result in delay or default upon is the fact the with their corruption behaviour the peo-
the Republic of Bulgaria’s obligations under the Treaty ple that take up senior state titles make up vulnerable
of accession to the EU thus predefining the start-up of social environment that is favourable grounds for build-
penal procedures by the competent European struc- ing positions of being impacted by foreign services,
tures. This is in effect to the utmost extent when it economic and other subjects with which to impact the
comes to such areas and activities like communication process of making managerial policies and decisions
technologies, constructing infrastructural motorways that are important to the country in direction that does
and layouts, performing key reforms etc. not correspond to the national interest.
 Loss of national sovereignty. In view of na- Impact on the judicial authority
tional security what is essential is the fact the with their Purposeful actions were established for covering
corruption behaviour the people that take up senior up the performed corruption wrongdoings in order to

15Group of people that are trying to impact the others in the

interest of social or political cause.
Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) # 12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ 93
avoid penal liability, including impacting and lobbying Grey economy is a real social-economic phenom-
within the judicial system. enon that is manifested in different ways within the
The condition and the processes within the structures economy of a particular country. In general, it deprives
of the judicial system are subject matter of increased the state budget from inflows and creates serious hin-
public interest and special attention is paid to the pres- drances for the establishment of market economy. The
ence of corruption practices. The destructive effect of criminal alliance between the corrupted clerks and the
corruption in the judicial system is expressed not only organized crime that controls contraband and traffic
in violating the fundamental principles of the existence channels, causes huge damages to the national econ-
of legal state (supremacy of law, irreversibility of the omy. In other words these two phenomena in the econ-
punishment for the committed crime), and civil society omy are inevitably related to the corruption practices.
(violation of citizens’ constitutional rights) but in hin- Undoubtedly, just like numerous analysers stated,
dering significantly running a reform with which to en- the “shadow” economy is the malignant formation to
sure modern judicial system for rendering public ser- every national economy. It “undermines” economic
vices that provide effective and fast justice. The elabo- growth, realizes high profits on the account of the state
rated analyses show that the most frequent corruption and the society, violating the law while hiding taxes,
practices in the judicial system are related to the follow- avoiding fees and customs, accelerating the corruption
ing: scale and financial crimes in its striving towards “laun-
 Activating lobbyist groups amidst the magis- dering” the illegal revenues. It is obvious that in these
trates and ensuring employments and career develop- circumstances it is very hard to forecast the Bulgarian
ment via payment. As a result the dependency of the economy stands a significant growth potential. The
people employed according to this scheme is being longer the “malignant disease” called corruption re-
taken advantage of for the realization of various inter- mains non-attacked and non-treated, the stronger its
ests related to impacting the economic and political metastases would erode the capacity of the Bulgarian
processes in the country. The ones which are especially economy to step on the growth pathway. In this light,
dangerous are the non-regulated contacts of magistrates elaborating and implementing anticorruption pro-
with persons from the active criminal contingent. In gramme which is efficient and effective is mandatory
many cases the intermediation function has been per- prerequisite without which the long-term growth could
formed by lawyers; not be achieved by some governmental programme.
 Impacting the progress and judgments passed Corruption creates prerequisites for the manifesta-
by the court for penal or civil lawsuits in the interest of tion of risks to the national security in their capacity of
certain persons. The inspections that have been per- threat to the sustainable economic development of the
formed concern particular whistleblowing on corrup- country and well-being of the population. The direct
tion pressure being exercised on magistrates, aiming at manifestation is about corruption practices that result in
the finalization of pre-judicial proceedings and penal damages and ineffective disbursement of the republican
lawsuits in the interest of certain persons and circles, budget, (here we could add up the encroachments on
and significant monetary sums are offered to this end; the financial stability of the Ministry of Defence and
 Conflict of interest that impacts the resolution the Bulgarian Army and the corruption actions in them
of lawsuits, pre-judicial proceedings and controlling hide a special threat to the national security not only
the initiated prosecutor transcripts. because of the fact that these are its basic element, but
 Destructive impact on state system and demo- mostly because their budgets are the main cost item in
cratic foundations for society’s functioning. the republican budget); competition limitation; creation
Impact on country’s economy of additional barriers to the business; ineffective utili-
As we already mentioned, corruption hinders the zation of the funds of the EU and other international
economic development while causing distortions and programmes and projects to which Bulgaria is a party
ineffectiveness in country’s development. In general etc. In general this results in increasing the social price
the researches of the economic characteristics of cor- of the reforms to the Bulgarian citizens. In view of the
ruption in Bulgaria do not boast with exhaustive or nu- social area a specific risk related to the capacity of sig-
merous character. Nevertheless it is a fact that corrup- nificant harmful consequences, contains corruption in
tion is among the main hindrances for the economic de- healthcare considering the significance of this strategic
velopment of the country. Yet we cannot answer the area to ensure the right to life and effective medical care
question whether corruption is the reason for ruining for the Bulgarian citizens.
economy’s foundations or whether it results from its The criminal schemes and corruption manifesta-
weakness. Most probably from both. The cause and ef- tions are inadmissible in their capacity of main or par-
fect between the corruption level and the features of the allel source of incomes, manner of thinking and behav-
Bulgarian economic system is two-sided, dynamic and ing in the society. Corruption is not only in prejudice of
insufficiently studied. In this case we will point some economy, but is also compromises the democratic insti-
phenomena as grey economy, contraband and corrup- tutions of the state. It is a threat to the national security
tion, which interweave and interact and at the same in general, to the security of personality and property,
time it is certain that they undermine the foundations of it hinders the development of democratic processes and
the economy, hence they impact negatively the normal free competition and messes up with the fruitful mem-
functioning of the state and the society in their capacity bership of Bulgaria in the European Union. All patterns
of elements of the National security. of corruption activity, especially the power misuse for
94 Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) #12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
personal or group benefits, infringe the normal func- range of activities aimed at overcoming the reasons be-
tioning of the state, the effectiveness of its redistribu- ing the appearance of corruption or its limitation. These
tive mechanisms, deteriorate the quality of public ser- are mostly related to researching bottlenecks and risky
vices, violate the principles of social justice and limit areas for the appearance of corruption in the admin-
citizens’ right. istration; with the improvement of the organization and
Counteracting corruption in the Republic of the technology of administrative activities and services;
Bulgaria with the improvement of more transparency in the work
According to the National Security Strategy, of the administration, as well as in view of the property
counteracting corruption is achieved while imple- status of employees in the administration; with the im-
menting comprehensive measures aimed at the devel- provement of internal departmental and civil control.
opment of the inter-institutional approach; strengthen- For example, one of the prevention measures is the
ing the management system; regulation procurement; regular publication of reports and statements on the
administrative capacity; integrated management of the public webpages of the administrations, as well as the
information resource; interaction and international co- opportunity to receive administrative services online.
operation and operational management. Additionally, Another prevention measure is cutting down the
the improvement of effectiveness of the operations per- administrative regulation as this will decrease the areas
formed by the local authorities and local self-govern- of increased corruption risk within the administration.
ance is achieved with the inclusion of citizens in the Additionally, preventive measure is being realized via
process of achieving the objectives of the local self- the transparent and public administrative procedures.
governance. The institutions and NGOs work for the What we should consider is that transparency in itself
creation of sustainable attitudes and active civil posi- does could not combat corruption. The rest is a matter
tion in the society to cut down the tolerance to corrup- of civil position – whistle-blowing and alerting the en-
tion while taking advantage of the opportunities of ed- forcement bodies, announcing information via the me-
ucational policies and informational campaigns. dia that they have etc. In order to make transparency
Part „V. National security system”, point 162 of work efficiently – being an instrument for counteract-
the Strategy notes that: significant element of the na- ing corruption, it should be bound with the active posi-
tional security system are the consulting and coordinat- tion of citizens and media. In other words, everyone
ing bodies to the Council of Ministers that perform op- who sees that something irregular is being done some-
erations in the area of security, public order, preven- where, should help the state administration while in-
tion and counteraction of corruption and for the forming – be it senior manager, or the police or the
development of the national defence industrial base. prosecution, if it is about asking for a bribe. Hence pre-
They coordinate the operational implementation of the vention mainly relies on the participation of the citizens
state policy and provide the necessary consulting to the and the business, for disclosing and overcoming the
government and the particular bodies of government reasons behind the appearance of corruption. In the ca-
authority when preparing and implementing the deci- pacity of consumers of services they could, if the be-
sions of their competency. haviour of state officials is not in conformity with the
In this light, according to me an important prereq- ethical standards expected from them, immediately
uisite for counteracting corruption is implementing ef- note and alert this. The provision of the opportunity for
fective institutional mechanisms in the area of political this to happen immediately and on the spot in the ad-
system and civil society, which are based on clear and ministrative building increases citizens’ trust in the ad-
accurate rules. ministration because they see a real result, an authentic
Undoubtedly, the absence of consistently imple- small change.
mented political will greatly predefines the insufficient Education is probably the most indisputable and
results of corruption counteraction. In recent years stra- successful means for counteracting corruption. Educa-
tegic documents were elaborated and are being elabo- tion against corruption means building a counteraction
rated and individual measures have been undertaken. system that combines legal, moral and political argu-
Nevertheless Bulgaria does not make significant pro- ments that do with all fears, benefits and statements on
gress in counteracting this negative phenomenon. the inevitability of corruption. Education builds the feel
Crime counteraction, including corruption coun- of professionalism, of belonging to professional group,
teraction according to the opinions prevalent in the sci- of realization of the essence of corruption and its con-
entific area are about the activity of the specialized gov- sequences. Education builds up the state official – a
ernment bodies, public organizations and citizens for good professional who does not violate the rules and
counteracting the particular crime type (the ex officio does not take bribes. Not only because this is crime, but
crimes in this case). It consists of effective prevention just because good professional does not act unethically.
of this negative phenomenon, disclosure of crimes and On the other hand probably only education is ca-
strong and effective judicial authority for punishing the pable of building the conscience that every employee in
corrupt ones. This work below highlights the preven- particular with his/her professional and civil behaviour
tion and punishment of corruption, being parts of coun- could do absolutely everything to overcome corruption.
teraction. In this relation for example I am of the opinion that
Measures for corruption prevention the published manuals are of great help since these are
In general prevention means not allowing the oc- designated to students of the high school stage that
currence of corruption. Prevention includes broad could be included in the training under some school
subjects. The objective would be to have an education
Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) # 12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ 95
16
that promotes establishing knowledge on the corruption (PPA) ; continuous training and improvement of the
in its capacity of negative social phenomenon and the qualification of officials; improvement of the effective-
development of students’ skills and competences for ef- ness in the operations of the control authorities at cen-
fectively counteracting its manifestation in their daily tral and local level and acceleration of their interaction
life as citizens. The achievement of this objective sug- with the institutions for human rights’ protection; limi-
gests improving the sensitivity of students towards the tation of the opportunities for deriving benefits and le-
issues related to corruption and corruption practices in galization of revenues from criminal activity, as well as
society; help the students in building their own point of its funding, in view of decreasing the motivation and
view and purposeful attitude towards corruption ac- capacity of organized criminal groups.
tions; provide the students with incentives for behav- Together with the abovementioned, it is essential
iour that excludes corruption actions in the social rela- to improve the mechanisms for collaboration with the
tions, as well as building respect towards conformity law enforcement bodies of our foreign partners for ef-
with the laws, since this has exceptionally powerful fective information exchange and holding mutual oper-
anti-corruption effect. ations.
There are several objectives of education in its ca- Measures for punishing the corruption
pacity of measure for counteracting corruption: The penal prosecution of corruption ensures the
 Achieve the level of awareness of citizens, fair punishment for the corrupted ones, and at the same
which will make it possible for them to find their way time has strong refraining and preventive action. Po-
in administration’s functioning, realize when it does not lice, prosecution and investigation are the bodies that
work effectively and when the reason behind that is cor- exist and that existed, one of their main tasks being
ruption; namely – penal prosecution of corruption. Depend-
 Build professionalism and belonging to some ing on the various types of corruption crimes, these
corporate group, realization of what is corruption actu- should be investigated either by policemen or by pre-
ally, what we are fighting against, how we are actually liminary investigators or by investigators.
fighting it, in what manner every person could help for In the case of certain corruption patterns, just like
counteracting corruption; large-scaled corruption, penal prosecution is believed
 Every citizen should be provided with the to be the only effective method for counteraction. Nev-
means to understand clearly that he/she cannot do ertheless it cannot operate individually for overcoming
something against thefts and burglaries, murders and the common issues like corruption. The fact that some-
rapes, but every individual could do absolutely eve- one, somewhere solely got in jail, would contribute sig-
rything to overcome corruption. What it takes is not nificantly, since it will help building citizens’ trust in
giving bribes - no matter how beautiful and improbable the state. It will help because citizens would see that
it may sound – so that there is no corruption in the coun- something is happening and once they alert the police,
try. someone somewhere actually undertakes measures and
Additionally, what is essential to the efficient cor- their behaviour was not fruitless. Outside the scope of
ruption prevention is the enforcement of the Codes of this general improvement of citizens’ trust in the state,
Behaviour and the disciplinary practice, in the case the individual sentencing of one, ten or one hundred
these are violated. Yet the introduction of numerous people could not bring about drastic change of the cor-
particular measures such as enacting Codes of Behav- ruption level.
iour and rules for working with the citizens as well as Somehow, no matter how ineffective the judicial
the charging and punishing corrupted employees, seem authority is, no matter how much we want to improve
to gradually change the notion of corruption as accepta- its efficiency – some people get in jail, some are sen-
ble and unpunishable manner of “settling” faster and tenced, but this does not help us actually feel the change
quality public services. But this change of perceptions in the corruption level. Hence it is essential for the pe-
is hard to achieve and it requires continuous efforts nal prosecution to be perceived as one of the three
made by the people in charge in order to improve the measures for counteracting corruption. It matters be-
public services area in particular. cause citizens should trust the administration, help the
Next the effective measures for corruption preven- police and prosecution, witness before the court, but pe-
tion are the following – improving the openness when nal prosecution in itself could not solve the issue.
rendering public services; management and disposition Penal prosecution is the basic method for counter-
with state and municipal property; procedures for as- acting corruption in the area of political corruption or
signation of public procurements and for provision of the grand corruption. When we talk about petty cor-
concessions; management and utilization of resources ruption, the methods for prevention and education are
from the European funds and programmes; transpar- critical. They are the thing that could actually result in
ency in the implementation of the procedure for the ap- corruption decrease in some short- and mid-term. Nev-
pointment of officials and strict conformity with clear ertheless grand corruption is corruption where someone
rules for professional behaviour, assessment and devel- at top authority position, knowing perfectly he or she is
opment; assurance of full transparency when it comes doing a crime while receiving bribe – most often and
to funding political parties and pre-election campaigns, despite everything does it - while violating the law. In
according to the provisions of Political Parties Act this case the only thing we could rely on, is the penal

16 Made public in State Gazette, edition 28 dated 1.04.2005,

in effect from 01.04.2005.
96 Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) #12(33), 2016 | ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
prosecution with all its issues and shortcomings. What amongst the legislative priorities are the efforts for cre-
could we do, for example, in view of counteracting the ation of such legal environment that would as much as
abovementioned special corruption type in the topic - possible eliminate the conditions and reasons behind
“conquering the state”? Once again the measures in- the existence of the “corruption” phenomenon.
clude transparency of the public figures; they include In conclusion it is worth mentioning that the clas-
transparency and reporting when it comes to funding sical measures for counteracting corruption should be
the political parties; and they include very clear rules utilized in combination and the particular actions in-
concerning conflict of interest and lobbying. clude elements of prevention, education and penal pros-
Penal law, even if powerful, is just one of the ecution. In practice, in our country the measures for
means at state’s disposal for counteracting corruption. corruption prevention and counteraction are bound in a
Too important and probably of utmost significance system that covers the whole society.

CIA REPORT OF 2000 ABOUT THE HAZARDS IN THE WORLD IN 2015 AND
THE SITUATION NOWADAYS

Venelin Terziev,
Professor, Ph.D., D.Sc. (National Security), D.Sc. (Ec.),
University of Rousse, Rousse,Bulgaria,
National Military University, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria
Marin Petkov,
Associate Professor, Ph.D.,
National Military University, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria

Abstract: Forecasting hazards in the world appears to be one of the key tasks in the support to policy and
decision making on different levels. Studies on the prognoses of research institutes and their comparisons to reality
reveal some important considerations in methods and approaches used, as well as open field of further research.
The paper outlines the main findings in the CIA report about major factors in the global policy and development
for 2015. From the perspective of today’ realities it makes analyses of forecasts and juxtapose them which provides
opportunities to conclude on the significance of the forecasts when dealing with trends in the most heavy problems
in front of the humanity as: global terrorism, climate change, under nutrition and many others threatening with
conflicts of different character.
Key words: hazards, factors, forecast, report.

„Global Trends 2015” is the title of a CIA report
[1], prepared jointly with independent research institu-
tions. This report became public in 2000 in its concise
variant of 37 pages and contained forecasts about the
world’s development by 2015 [2]. Today we are away
of the year referred in the report and this is a formal
reason to compare the forecasts to reality.
For those who are connoisseurs of the trends and
other works on this topic, it is not surprising the report
is focusing on such threats as terrorism, biological
weapons, computer-related crime etc.
The report features estimates, which at some
places really give an apocalyptic character of the vi-
sions as political analysts in Western Europe assessed
it at this time.
The conclusions of the study - although leaving
the feeling to aim at conveying the trends in the efforts
of the new USA government and the need to allocate
more financial resources in certain areas, first of all for
intelligence and security - are of interest, because they
refer to such global topics as the scarcity of raw mate-
rials, the spread of diseases, the overpopulation in some
parts of the world as well as the development of coun-
tries of global influence and the anticipated conflicts in
some regions. Unfortunately, the report also fuels cer-
tain fears in the countries of the European Union and is
in some moments rather vulnerable to counter-argu-
ments.
Contrary to the optimistic forecasts for the devel-
opment of the Balkans, which are rife at this moment in
the public space due to the partial upsurge of the econ-
omy and the increased investor interest for the country,
Bulgaria is stated as having problems as a country of
decreasing and ageing population, emigrating to West-
ern Europe. The negative results in this regards as of
today are developing and they are multiplying negative
demographic trends.
According to the report, the countries credibility
in the world by 2015 will start to wane and „nonstate
actors” will struggle for power. In the first place are
listed terrorist groupings, operating worldwide with the
most advanced technical equipment. That means the
world will be faced with a symbiosis of both classical
and new threats: offensive desertification, climate
changes, mass displacements, infections, fight for wa-
ter, energy and raw materials.
The larger countries we know from the 20th cen-
tury will become the major forces in the world, but their
influence will be marginalized.
USA will continue to be a global power of strong
economy and a country with the most powerful army.
Experts think however that the USA will become more
vulnerable. Confidence in the unlimited possibilities of
the economic growth will disappear. Terrorist attacks