Chapter 02: Demography

• Demography
CHAPTER TWO OUTLINE → the scientific study of human populations
I. Population and Demography → a term was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard,
i. Demographic Processes who used it in the title of his book Éléments de
ii. Sources of Demographic Information Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée
iii. Demographic Cycle ▪ demos → people
▪ graphein → to write about a particular
II. World Population subject
i. Life Expectancy, Fertility, & Growth Rate → as defined by Guillard, the mathematical
ii. Population Census knowledge of populations, their general
movements, and their physical, civil, intellectual
III. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and moral state
i. Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
• Modern Demography

POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY → the study of the determinants and consequences

of population change and is concerned with
• Population Growth virtually everything that influences or can be
→ the single most important set of events ever to influenced by these following factors
occur in human history
→ the most revolutionary phenomenon of our times, • Three Aspects of the Population that
as Spanish philosopher Gasset put it more than Demography Studies
70 years ago o changes in population size
o composition of population
• Population has changed and continues to alter the o distribution of population in place
way of life in even the most remote corners of the
earth.
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
• No matter how much you may have heard about
declining birth rates, it is still true that the number • The demographic processes that determine the

of people added to the world each day is size, composition, and distribution of population

unprecedented in history and unparalleled in its are the following.

consequences. o Fertility
o Mortality

• There are more highly educated people than ever o Marriage

before, yet also more illiterates. o Migration

→ more rich people, but also more poor o Social Mobility

→ more well-fed children, but more hunger-
ravaged babies whose images haunt us

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 CHAPTER 02: Demography PH 102
BS Public Health | FIRST YEAR – SECOND TERM

SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION o 3rd - Late Expanding

▪ The death rate declines further and the
• Sources of Demographic Information birth rate also starts to decline.
o Population Census ▪ Since the death rate is lower than birth rate
o Vital Statistics the population keeps increasing.
o Migration ▪ Some developing countries are in this
stage.
• Census
→ describe the population in the static stage o 4th - Low Stationary
▪ In this stage the death rate and the birth
• Vital Statistics and Migration Information rate are both low.
→ gives the changes occurring to the population ▪ So, the population becomes stationary
again.
• Before planning any health intervention or program ▪ There is no increase or decrease in the
population.
for the community, size and composition must be
determined.
o 5th - Declining
▪ In this stage the birth rate is lower than the
death rate.
DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
▪ So the population starts to decline.
• Population of all countries go through the following
stages.
WORLD POPULATION

WORLD POPULATION
2000 years ago 250 million
1800s 1000 million
1987 5 billion
1999 6 billion
by 2025 expected at 8 billion

• About 3/4 of the world population lives in the

developing countries.

• China and India

→ the most populous countries in the world
o 1st - High Stationary
▪ There is high birth rate and high death rate
• Population growth rate peak was in 1970.
so the population remains stationary.
▪ There is no increase or decrease in the
• 95% of population growth are in developing
population.
countries.
o 2nd - Early Expanding
▪ Death rate begins to decline while birth
rate does not change.
▪ Many countries in Asia and Africa are in
this stage.

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 CHAPTER 02: Demography PH 102
BS Public Health | FIRST YEAR – SECOND TERM

LIFE EXPECTANCY, FERTILITY, & GROWTH RATE

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
Crude Birth Rate = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
• Life Expectancy
→ the average number of years which a person is 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
Crude Death Rate =
expected to live 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

→ one of the best indicator of a country’

s level of
development and overall health status Growth Rate = Crude Birth Rate — Crude Death Rate

o In most countries the life expectancy of women

is more than that of men. POPULATION CENSUS

o Japan has the highest life expectancy at 86-79.
o Life expectancy in the United States is at 80-76.
• Fertility
→ the actual bearing of children by a woman
o Reproductive Age of Women
→ 15 years old – 45 years old
o Factors Affecting Fertility
▪ Age at marriage
▪ Duration of married life
▪ Spacing of Children
▪ Education
▪ Socioeconomic Status
FERTILITY vs FECUNDITY
→ childbearing performance of a
woman, couple, or population
→ generally only live births are included
→ measured in the form of fertility rate
Fertility → depends on nutrition, endocrinology,
emotions, consanguinity, instinct,
sexual behavior, timing, economics,
culture, etc.
→ refers to the lack of fertility
→ physiological capability of producing
a live born child
→ measured by the number of
gametes, seed set, or asexual
Fecundity propagules and the survival of the
young
→ depends on prohormone of the
active thyroid hormone,
triiodothyronine
• Population Census
→ the total process of collecting, compiling, and
publishing of demographic, economic, and social
data pertaining to a specified time of all persons
in a community
• Methods of Conducting Population Census
o De facto Method
→ the total population of persons actually
present in the area on the day of census is
taken
o De jure Method
→ the total population of the peoples is taken on
the basis of their permanent residence
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
→ the average number of children a woman would
give birth to during her lifetime
→ useful when comparing two different populations
or when examining a given population over time
→ usually simply described as the average number
of children per woman which makes it an intuitive
measure of fertility
• The TFR is calculated by adding up all the age-
specific fertility rates, multiplying this sum by five
(the width of the age-group interval), and then
dividing by 1,000.

6 PADAYON, FUTURE RMT., MD! | BSPH-1201

 CHAPTER 02: Demography PH 102
BS Public Health | FIRST YEAR – SECOND TERM

AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

REFERENCES
ASFR o Material and Discussions from PH 102
𝑏𝑖
ASFR = ± 1,000 Instructor
𝑝𝑖
number of births registered
bi during the year of women in TRANSCRIBED BY
the age interval i
o Bautista, M.D.
midyear population of
Pi women in the same age
group
k 1,000

(𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑆𝐹𝑅)(5)
TFR = 1,000

• Why is TFR important?

o Knowing the TFR, along with mortality and
migration projections, helps us estimate how a
population might grow, shrink, or stabilize over
time.
o Data on the total fertility rate can also help
predict other demographic shifts, such as future
age distributions within a population.
o If a TFR is dropping, it may mean there will be a
larger population of older adults in the future,
assuming other factors remain stable.
o Governments and international organizations
use the total fertility rate to forecast these
population changes and help plan for services,
education, and other societal needs.

7 PADAYON, FUTURE RMT., MD! | BSPH-1201