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Textbook Economic Dynamics of All Members of The United Nations 2Nd Edition Ethelbert Nwakuche Chukwu Auth Ebook All Chapter PDF
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Atlantis Studies in Mathematics for Engineering and Science
Series Editor: C. K. Chui
Economic
Dynamics of All
Members of the
United Nations
Second Edition
Atlantis Studies in Mathematics for Engineering
and Science
Volume 10
Series editor
C. K. Chui, Stanford University, USA
The series ‘Atlantis Studies in Mathematics for Engineering and Science’ (AMES)
publishes high quality monographs in applied mathematics, computational math-
ematics, and statistics that have the potential to make a significant impact on the
advancement of engineering and science on the one hand, and economics and
commerce on the other. We welcome submission of book proposals and manu-
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For more information on this series and our other book series, please visit our
website at: www.atlantis-press.com/publications/books
Atlantis Press
8, square des Bouleaux
75019 Paris, France
Ethelbert Nwakuche Chukwu
Economic Dynamics
of All Members
of the United Nations
Second Edition
Ethelbert Nwakuche Chukwu
North Carolina State University
Raleigh, NC
USA
ISSN 1875-7642
ISBN 978-94-6239-075-1 ISBN 978-94-6239-076-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.2991/978-94-6239-076-8
After the meetings of Asian and European Leaders in Beijing, China on April 12,
2008, and their joint stand on the solution of the world economic crises at the
Washington, November 15, 2008, G20 meeting and the subsequent economic
summit of World Leaders in London, Chief Financial Leaders from the world’s top
seven economic powers pledged, as reported by Jeannine Aversa of the Associated
Press, Saturday, April 25, 2009, in the News and Observer:
‘‘The group of seven participants Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and
Canada promised to provide the necessary fiscal tonic to turn around their troubled
economies as follows—tax cuts or increased government spending; commitment
to act together to restore jobs and growth.’’
The USA Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner and his counterparts made this
promise in a joint statement. The news report touched upon new financial com-
mitments to raise $500 billion for 1MF lending and the difficulty of getting China,
Brazil, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia on board. A bigger say in the operation of
1MF was needed to be put in place.
The creation of jobs and the restoration of economic growth are the main
arguments embodied in Chukwu’s current book. The path of cooperation is
emphasized. Implicitly they embraced and accepted the conclusions of the book,
‘‘The Omega Problem of All Members of the United Nations’’.
By affirming the joint statement ‘‘We will take whatever actions are necessary’’
to bring that about—to prevent ‘‘a crisis of this magnitude from occurring again’’,
‘‘fixing financial institutions in the U.S. and World wide and jump-starting lend-
ing’’. What is accepted implicitly is the analysis of Chukwu on Differential Models
and Neutral Systems for controlling the Wealth of Nations, World Scientific 2001,
Singapore, pp. 293–296 as highlighted in the forward.
v
Acknowledgments
vii
Contents
4 Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
ix
x Contents
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Introduction
In a recent paper the author postulated that the most important applied
mathematics problem since the world began is connected with the worldwide
conquest of scarcity subject to the values of love and goodness. (See Genesis
3:17–18; Isaiah 58:6–8; 9–12; Malachi 3:10–12; and Matthew 25:31–40). The
production of goods and services and their distribution are considered to be the
core of applied mathematics problem in the sense that mathematical economic
state of all nations—the gross domestic product, interest rate, employment, value
of capital stock, prices (and therefore inflation), and cumulative balance of
payment—is mathematically derived and identified as a dynamical system with
interacting solidarity matrix. Included in the model are government strategies—
generalized taxes, autonomous government outlay, exchange rate, tariff, trade
policy or distance between trading nations, money supply and its flows,
autonomous net capital outflow to foreigners by government. Included also is
the representative private firms strategies—autonomous consumption, autonomous
investment, autonomous net export, autonomous money demand, labor produc-
tivity, wage rate, autonomous income consumption intercept, and autonomous
price intercept. By ‘‘autonomous’’ we mean that these do not depend on variables
of the economic state. It is possible to include nongovernment organization (NGO)
contributions. The production of abundant goods and services driven by
government and private strategies is the fundamental aim. With the mathematical
economic model which joins all economies of nations, one asks the question
whether it is possible to steer each economic state of a nation from low growth of
GDP, high interest rate, low employment, low value of capital stock, high
inflation, and little cumulative balance of payment to the state of abundance of
goods and services. It is then possible, if humans are willing, to feed the hungry,
clothe the naked, shelter the homeless, take care of the sick and heal them, visit
and care for prisoners, welcome strangers and foreigners to our home and to our
countries. Thus, we uphold the uplifting value of love and goodness. How can this
be done? First, we take the underlying Applied Mathematical economic problem
of improving the economic state of nations using government and representative
firm’s strategies. A measure of economic performance which is to be improved is
the gross domestic product GDP. It is a measure of the total income generated
through the production of goods and services, the so-called output y—the supply.
Assuming the differential principle of supply and demand and the principle of
xi
xii Introduction
with government strategy q as the quarry and the representative firms’ control
function as the pursuer, p, which can be supplemented by nongovernment orga-
nization contribution, NGO. By the method of Hájek [1] and Chukwu [2] the
system is converted to a control system with 191 state variables and a control
variable u a member of the Pontryagin difference of the control set of government
Q and the control set of the private firms representative P.
Once this is set up, one studies the controllability and the optimal growth of the
economic state of
x_ ðtÞ A1 x_ ðt hÞ ¼ A0 xðtÞ þ A1 xðt hÞ þ A2 ðxðtÞÞxðt hÞÞ þ Bu;
where x has 191 components corresponding to member states of the UN. Thus,
x ¼ ½y1 ; y2 ; y3 ; :. . . ; y191 ;
and yi is the GDP of country i. We aim to have material abundance. For this we
need huge resources. These are currently available, e.g., from the Sun. It will take
at least 3 billion years to exhaust the energy of the Sun. What is available from the
waters of the oceans is tremendous. Included are the tons of sand of the deserts,
and of the sea—shores—the sand for the silicon and computer chips, and for
building, shelter. Ndu Chukwu in a project at St. Augustines College, Raleigh,
North Carolina, a follow-up of NASA Project: ‘‘Colonization of the Moon,’’
indicated that even the deserts of Peru, Arizona, California can be watered, col-
onized, and made to bloom. The down pour of the rainstorm caused by El Niño
proved him right. It was documented by CBS which witnessed the fulfillment of
the prophecy of Isaiah 35:1–2: ‘‘The desert will bloom.’’ There is more arable land
for humankind to grow its economy than is recognized. We now present the
economic model which joins all economies of all nations and present how it is
possible to steer each nation’s economic state of low growth of GDP, high interest
rate, low employment, low value of capital stock, high inflation, and negative
cumulative balance of payment to the state of paradise—high growth rate of GDP,
low interest, full employment, low prices (or small inflation), and great cumulative
balance of payment. It will be shown that it is possible to steer to this target with
minimum investment, and do it in minimum time. All nations of the world can
then use this model to implement an optimal economic strategy and usher in
universal abundance and prosperity. The needed huge resources are already
available in our world. Closely linked with this first section of our study is the
issue of longevity. It seems that life can be prolonged beyond our imagination:
500 years and going strong. By caloric restriction and manipulating the anti-aging
Introduction xiii
genes, and by exercise, humans can live longer. It has been observed that there was
a 30 years gain in the age of humans in the last century and that longevity and
health are related to the generation of wealth. Countries that have a 5-year advance
in longevity compared to other countries have a greater Gross Domestic Product.
Increasing health and longevity will enable countries to create greater wealth and
prosperity. Citizens will live longer as healthy productive individuals. Thus, GDP
increases. The value which was earlier articulated, ‘‘Take care of the sick,’’ now
assumes a prominent position as a component of the omega problem of all
members of the United Nations.
We briefly outline the contents of the book. In Chap. 6, we use the principle of
rational expectations and the principle of differential supply and demand to derive
differential mathematical models of the economic state of all members of the
United Nations. Later in Chap. 14, these equations are validated with historical
data from the International Statistical Yearbook and United Nations National
Accounts Statistics: Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables, UN, New York. The
generic type of these equations is reproduced for each nation from Chukwu,
Optimal Control of the Growth of Wealth of Nations, Taylor and Francis 2005 and
with Matlab identified in Chap. 14 below, or Chukwu, Stability and Time-Optimal
Control of Hereditary Systems with Application to Economic Dynamics of the US,
2nd Edition, World Scientific, 2001, Singapore Chapter 1:10. The Economic State
consists of the popular ones, six components-Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) y,
Interest Rate R, Employment (or Unemployment) L, Value of Capital Stock K,
Prices, (or inflation ṕ), and cumulative Balance of Payment, E. The Control
Strategies of Government and of the representative private firms are also identi-
fied. From these, several real strategies for growth in a nation are highlighted for
implementation. The usual analysis for stability, controllability, and permanence
are made.
When all the nations are linked up together with an interconnecting function
f ðtÞ ¼ A2 ðxðtÞÞxðt hÞ; the emerging dynamics is
xðtÞ Aðxðt hÞÞ ¼ A0 xðtÞ þ A1 xðt hÞ þ A2 xðtÞxðt hÞ þ Bu;
in which the Matlab programs identify A; A0 ; A; A2 and B. Here u is a member of
the Pontrygin difference of sets P and Q. Here x has 191 components corre-
sponding to member states of the UN. Thus,
x ¼ ½y1 ; y2 ; . . . ; y191 :
yi is the GDP of country i.
Cooperation studies can be continued in the direction of the insight of
T. G. Hallam, ‘‘Community Dynamics in a Homogeneous Environment in
Mathematical Ecology,’’ Biomathematics, Vol. 17, p242.
Biomathematics ed. T. G. Hallam and S. A. Levin, Springer-Verlag, Berlin-
Heidelberg, 1986, and the emergence, if conditions permit, of the so-called ‘‘orgy
of mutuality.’’
xiv Introduction
In Chaps. 9 and 1, we study together the two components of the national economic
state, Employment and Gross Domestic when the two nations are interacting and
the interacting functions are explicitly defined. The control strategies of the rep-
resentative firms and the government are explicit and can be used to deduce
economic policies. China and USA are two examples when their parameters have
been identified. An Appendix of numerical work by E. N. Chukwu and E. Chukwu
is displayed.
Detailed studies of the 184 nations are continued in Chap. 12. The book
concludes with an overview of studies on longevity and the possibility of eternal
life and the resource and life style implications of such an eventuality.
References
L_ þ ‘5 pðtÞ þ r3 ðtÞ;
with the economic state
x ¼ ½y; R; L; k; p; E:
Here
y is the Gross Domestic Product,
R is the interest rate,
L is employment,
k is the value of capital stock,
p donates prices,
E is the cumulative balance of payment,
s is tariff,
e exchange rate,
T taxes,
n is labor productivity of the firms.
F ¼ y wL rk;
where w is the wage of L, labor per unit time, r the rent of the use of Capital k. For
the maximization of profit F we define
1 1=a
mðwÞ ¼ ð1 aÞ :
w
Using IMF data and MATLAB program US2.m the following output emerges.
L0 ¼ a0 ¼ 1:554
‘1 ¼ a1 ¼ 0:1870;
‘2 ¼ mðwÞa2 ¼ 7:7325eð004Þ ð01870Þ;
‘4 ¼ mðwÞa4 ¼ 7:8295 ð209668Þ;
‘5 ¼ mðwÞa5 ¼ 7:8295 ð161365Þ;
r3 ¼ mðwÞr4 ¼ 7:7325 e004 r4 ;
r4 ¼ x0 þ y0 þ I0 ;
q3 ¼ mðwÞq4 ¼ 7:7325e004 q4 ;
q3 ¼ mðwÞq4
¼ 7:7325e004 ½675:2828 þ 0:3447M 5:490e009 TðtÞ
þ 0:0956eðtÞ þ 1:045005 sðtÞ
First
1=a
1
mðwÞ ¼ ð1 a
w
Very recently the President of the USA, set up a bipartisan commission to generate
strategies to boost the positive value of the Balance of Payment of the USA.
A mathematical solution can be deduced from the following research monographs
of the author, E. N. Chukwu.
1. E. N. Chukwu, Stability and Time Optimal Control of Hereditary Systems with
Application to the Economic Dynamics of the US, 2nd edition, World Scien-
tific, 2001, ISBN 981-02-4674-9. Singapore, New Jersey, London.
2. E. N. Chukwu, Differential Models and Neutral Systems for Controlling the
Wealth of Nations, World Scientific, 2001, ISBN 9810243812, Singapore, New
Jersey, London.
3. Optimal Control of the Growth of Wealth of Nations, Taylor and Francis, 2003,
ISBN 0-415-26966-0, London, New York.
4. E. N. Chukwu, A Mathematical Treatment of Economic Cooperation and
Competition Among Nations with Nigeria, USA, UK, China and Middle East
Examples, Mathematics in Science and Engineering, v 203, Elsevier, 2005,
ISBN-13978-0-444-51859-0, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
5. E. N. Chukwu, The Omega Problem of all members of the United Nations,
Atlantis Studies in Mathematics for Engineering and Science, v 7, World
Scientific, pub. Date scheduled Summer 2010.
6. E. N. Chukwu, Stability and Time Optimal Control of Hereditary Systems,
Academic Press, Boston, 1992.
In these publications, the author invokes the economic ‘‘Differential demand
and supply principle’’, and the ‘‘Rational expectations hypothesis’’ which assumes
that the expected values of economic variables are functions of the current and past
values. With these assumptions the author derives this hereditary model of
cumulative balance of payment,
_ b17 Eðt
EðtÞ _ hÞ b8 Rðt
_ hÞ b12 Lðt
_ hÞ b4 y_ ðt hÞ
¼ b0 þ b7 eðtÞ þ b15 dðtÞ þ b13 sðtÞ þ b1 yðtÞ þ b5 RðtÞ þ b9 LðtÞ þ b3 pðtÞ ð2:1Þ
þ b2 yðt hÞ þ b6 Rðt hÞ þ b10 Lðt hÞ þ q6 ðtÞ r6 ðtÞ:
or
_ b17 Eðt
EðtÞ _ hÞ b8 Rðt
_ hÞ b12 Lðt
_ hÞ b4 y_ ðt hÞ
¼ b1 yðtÞ þ b5 RðtÞ þ b9 LðtÞ þ b3 pðtÞ þ b2 yðt hÞ þ b6 Rðt hÞ ð2:2Þ
þ b10 Lðt hÞ r6 ðtÞ þ q6 ðtÞ;
where
where
Indeed if
x = [y, R, L, k, p, E]T, (Economic state),
A-1 is 6 9 6 matrix,
A0 an 6 9 6 matrix, A1 = 6 9 6 matrix,
B1 an 6 9 8 matrix,
B2 an 6 9 9 matrix,
as recorded in [1, Sect. 1.10], and if
2 A Mathematical Solution to Boost the Positive 9
q ¼ ½q1 q2 q3 q4 q5 q6 q7 q8 T
2 3
q1
6 g0 7
6 7
6 7
6 e 7
6 7
6 s 7
6 7
¼6 7
6 d 7
6 7
6M 7
6 17
6 7
4M _15
f0
where
T1 ¼ z14 TðtÞ þ z19 Tðt hÞ
_ z21 Tðt
z20 TðtÞ _ hÞ;
where
_ z21 Tðt
T1 ¼ z14 TðtÞ þ z19 Tðt hÞ z20 TðtÞ _ hÞ:
If we identify the derivative of the state economic component E and its control
component q6 we obtain
_ þ p6 M1 f0 ;
b7 ðmðwÞq4 Þ þ b8 ðx0 þ y0 þ I0 Þ þ b15 ðp1 pf ðtÞeðtÞ þ p5 M1
or
q6 ¼ b7 ðmðwÞÞðg0 þ zs13 M zs14 TðtÞ þ zs15 eðtÞ þ zs16 sðtÞ þ zs17 dðtÞÞ
_ þ p6 M1Þ f0 ;
þ b8 ðx0 þ y0 þ z0 Þ þ b15 ðp1 pf ðtÞeðtÞ þ p5 M1
where
b15 ¼ 0;
b7 ¼ 154:5053;
b8 ¼ 5:9898;
b15 ¼ 0;
mðwÞ ¼ 7:7325e004 ;
g0 ¼ 9:6126;
f0 ¼ 347:68;
mwzs13 ¼ 4:7587e007 ;
mwzs14 ¼ 5:490e009 ;
mwzs15 ¼ 0:0956;
mwz16 ¼ 1:0145e005 ;
mwzs17 ¼ 0;
x0 ¼ 291:5135;
y10 ¼ 0:1225;
I0 ¼ 53:5756;
b6 ¼ 32:1284;
b10 ¼ 20:5989;
b17 ¼ 0:0267;
2 A Mathematical Solution to Boost the Positive 11
Using MATLAB identified coefficients and equations, the following were the
output controls derived from US2.m in [1]
We note that
b15 ¼ 0;
b8 ¼ 5:9898;
b6 ¼ 32:1284;
b10 ¼ 20:5989;
b17 ¼ 0:0267;
x0 ¼ 291:5135;
M0 ¼ 1:5231;
f 0 ¼ 347:68;
r6 ¼ X0 ¼ 89:1936:
b7 ðmðwÞÞg0 ¼ ð154:5053Þ 7:7325e004 ð9:6126Þ
If money supply is decreased, what is subtracted is smaller and the growth rate
of cumulative balance of payment is increased. Of course the growth rate of
interest rate is bigger. See [6.1.19]. Consider
Since this is positive, increasing taxes will increase this value and therefore
increase the growth rate of cumulative balance of payment.
Decreasing exchange rate will make this negative value smaller and therefore
the growth rate of cumulative balance of payment bigger. Let
Then decreasing tariff will shrink this negative value and therefore enlarge the
growth rate of cumulative balance of payment. Since
Increase of autonomous net export X0 by private firms will also strengthen the
growth rate of Cumulative Balance of Payment.
The effect of some Economic State Variables on the Cumulative Balance of
Payment in Eq. (1.5) or (6.1.44) of [3]
Hence
_ 0:0269Eðt
EðtÞ _ hÞ 0:1990_yðt hÞ 5:9898Rðt
_ hÞ 4:9703Lðt
_ hÞ
¼ 639:1947yðtÞ þ 32:1284Rðt hÞ 20:5989Lðt hÞ þ 0:3164yðt hÞ
r6 þ q6 ðtÞ
_
EðtÞ _ hÞ þ 0:1990_yðt hÞ þ 5:9898Rðt
¼ 0:0269Eðt _ hÞ þ 4:9703Lðt
_ hÞ
639:1947yðtÞ þ 32:1284Rðt hÞ 20:5989Lðt hÞ þ 0:3164yðt hÞ r6 þ q6 ðtÞ:
ð2:8bÞ
_
Abundance of y, goods and services, reduces the value of EðtÞ. In matrix form
this (2.8b) was expressed in the following way.
x_ ðtÞ A1 x_ ðt hÞ ¼ A0 xðtÞ þ A1 xðt hÞ þ B1q þ B2 r: ð2:9Þ
It is demonstrated in the earlier analysis [1–5] that with A-1, A0, A1, B1, B2
identified the hereditary system of neutral type is function space controllable. See
p. 485 of [1].
The control set of private firms is P and those of government is Q. Let
B1 q g and B2 r ¼ p
where
W ¼ fP þ ker Uðt1 sÞ Q;
We say that (1.8) is Euclidean controllable on the interval [0 t1] for any initial
function /(-?, 0] ? En which is continuous and bounded with /(0) [ En and for
every target y1 [En there exists a measurable function u: [0, t1] ? W such that the
solution y(t, /, u) of (2.11) satisfies y1 = y(t1, /, u). There is Euclidean space
capture everywhere at time t1 for game (2.10) if for each / [ C([-?, 0], En), /
bounded and for each y1 [ En and for any government intervention g [ L?([0, t1]
Q) there exists a private initiative (i.e., the firms can choose a control strategy p [
L?([0, t1], P) subject to the two conditions:
1. For each t [ [0, t1] the value of p(t) depends on q(t) only (and of course on
x0 = /(0), t1, Ai i = -1, 0 1);
2. The pair of controls p, q so obtained is such that the solution of (2.10) satisfies
These universal laws are carefully argued in p. 54, principle 1, principle 2 and
principle 3 of [2]. The computation of Q and P are easily done and are available in
Chukwu’s books and papers. All the deduced results and the stated principles offer
guidelines for the growth of Cumulative Balance of Payment. Note that the USA
economy is controllable. See [1–4] and all the economic variables can be steered
from any ‘‘bad’’ initial state to a state of ‘‘paradise’’, high growth of GDP, low
interest rate, full employment, big value of capital stock, low prices or low
inflation, and positive good value of cumulative balance of payment.
Chapter 3
Full Hereditary Interacting Model of All
Member States of the United Nations
zi ¼ Ii þ Ci þ Xi þ Gi ; ði ¼ 1; . . .; 191Þ ð3:1Þ
where
Here
Ci denotes private consumption of nation i,
Ti denotes taxes,
yi Ti represents after tax income: yi Ti ;
yi represents the GDP of country i,
Ii represents private investment of nation i,
Ii Ii0 þ Ii1 yi ðtÞ þ Ii2 yi ðt hÞ Ii3 y_ ðtÞ þ Ii4 y_ i ðt hÞ,
Xi is the net export of nation i (Xi = Exporti - Importi),
ei exchange rate,
The function 0 1
B C
BX191 C
B C
fi ðtÞ ¼ yi ðtÞB aij yj ðt hÞCin Xi ð3:4Þ
B C
@ j¼i A
j6¼i
investing from other nations j into other nations i: an inward flow of investment
from outside into nation i.
Here si = tariff, di = trade policy and distance between trading nations.
where ki is the speed of response of supply to demand the speed of adjustment. The
reciprocal of the speed of adjustment (1/ki) is the mean time lag, i.e., the time
necessary for about 63 % of discrepancy between yi and zi or between the actual
and desired value of yi to be eliminated. Summing
zi ðtÞ ¼ Ci ðtÞ þ Ii ðtÞ þ Xi ðtÞ þ Gi ðtÞ ¼ þðCi0 þ Ii0 þ Xi0 þ gi0 Þ
þ ðCi1 þ Ii1 þ Xi1 þ gi1 Þyi ðtÞ þ ðCi2 þ Ii2 Xi2 þ gi2 Þyi ðt hÞ
þ ðCi3 Ii3 þ Xi3 þ gi3 Þ_yi ðtÞ þ ðCi4 þ Ii4 þ Xi4 þ gi4 Þ_yi ðt hÞ
Let
zi0 þ Ci0 Ii0 þ Xi0 þ gi0 ;
zi1 ¼ Ci1 þ Ii1 þ Xi1 þ gi1 þ ai1 ;
zi2 ¼ Ci2 þ Ii2 þ Xi2 þ gi2 ; ð3:8Þ
zi3 þ Ci3 Ii3 þ Xi3 þ gi3 ;
zi4 ¼ Ci4 þ Ii4 þ Xi4 þ gi4 ;
and
pi ¼ ki ðCi0 þ Ii0 þ Xi0 Þ;
gi ¼ ki ðgi0 þ Xi5 ei ðtÞ þ Xi6 si ðtÞ þ Xi7 di ðtÞ ðCi1 Ti ðtÞ þ Ci2 Ti ðt hÞ ð3:9Þ
þ Ci3 T_ i ðt hÞ þ Ci4 T_ i ðt hÞÞÞ;
Then
dyi ðtÞ
¼ ki ðzi ðtÞ yi ðtÞÞ
dt
¼ ki ðzi1 1Þ yi ðtÞ þ ki zi2 yi ðt hÞ þ ki zi3 y_ i ðtÞ
0 1
B C
BX191 C
B
B C
þ ki zi4 yi ðt hÞ þ ki pi ðtÞ þ ki gi ðtÞ þ ki yi B
_ aij yiðthÞ C
C
B j¼i C
@ A
j6¼i
Thus
dyi ðtÞ dyi ðt hÞ
ð1 ki zi3 Þ ki zi4 ¼ ki ðzi1 1Þyi ðtÞ þ ki zi2 yi ðt hÞ
dt dt
X
191
þ ki yi aij yj ðt hÞ þ ki pi ðtÞ þ ki gi ðtÞ: ð3:10Þ
j¼1
ji
Esta separata agora publicada pelo dr. Costa Ferreira é uma bela
obra. Os nomes dos grandes mortos são como as plantas. Precisam
de jardineiros, cultores apaixonados, tratadores conscienciosos e
dedicados, senão breve vem a delir-se na memória das gerações e
o seu derradeiro pouso é nas páginas dos livros especialistas a que
lá de vez em quando um ou outro compulsor estudioso sacode o pó
e afugenta a traça. Precisam de quem buzine ao vulgo, para
escarmento duns e exemplo doutros, a sua vida e as suas obras.
Sempre assim se tem feito.
O nome de Ferraz de Macedo não podia encontrar mais piedoso
cultor do que o seu discípulo e médico Costa Ferreira. Possuido do
mesmo acendrado amor aos estudos antropológicos, amando o
mesmo ideal, Costa Ferreira dele recebeu as últimas vontades. Foi
êle o testamenteiro de «mil e tantos crânios, trezentos e tantos
esqueletos, de origem conhecida, reproduções estereográficas de
crânios célebres dos principais museus da Europa, tudo medido e
rigorosamente observado e, com êle, arsenal antropológico e
livraria» que Ferraz destinou ao Museu da Escola Politécnica. É êle
tambêm que, cumprindo um último prometimento, tomou à sua
conta o não deixar esquecer o nome do mestre e continuar-lhe a
obra apoteotizando-lhe o nome numa contínua e modesta
memoranda dos seus trabalhos.
Piedosa homenagem esta, tanto mais para encarecer quanto é
certo que, dada a indiferença geral e oficial, ninguêm tal encargo
tomaria. Morreu, acabou-se. Trate cada um de si e já não é pouco!
Auscultem um milhar de criaturas e digam-me se não é assim que
elas pensam!
Falho de senso prático como todo o cerebral, êle só tinha uma
única paixão: a sciência. Só ela o vulnerabilizava, babando-se
diante duma esquírola do homem terciário. Fora da sciência, não
vivia. Nada sentia que não fôsse passado pelo crivo dos seus
apontamentos e pela ideia dos seus crânios. E tão afastado o
traziam os seus estudos, da vida vívida, que breve iria à mendiguez
se mão provedora e amiga não fôsse, acordando o sábio do seu
reino encantado, cuidar-lhe da mantença.
Nessa abstracção tão funda viveu, com seus canários os
pequenitos da vizinhança, os seus crânios «como num celeiro o
grão que espera embarque», medidos, e, ensacados por êle, com
mão reminiscenciada dos seus tempos de aprendiz de alfaiate, e os
seus gatos, que morreu sonhando. «Depois de morto é que eu
viverei... Para os novos é que eu apelo. Êles que me continuem e
me vinguem». Tais foram as suas últimas palavras, erguendo-se
num repelão e visionando ainda uma visão acariciadora. Não voltou
a falar. Costa Ferreira tomou o encargo piedoso de o lembrar, de o
não deixar morrer de todo, na ingratidão indígena. Tal disse e tal
cumpriu.
O sábio morreu. Os jornais titubiaram, os amigos escapuliram-se
e, mais tombo menos tombo, lá ficou no seu coval, talvez ainda com
saudade dos seus crânios e dos seus apontamentos. Solitário como
foi em vida, assim o foi na morte. A sua apoteose não chegara
ainda. Os gazeteiros não carrilhonaram às multidões cretinizadas
nem sequer o «ilustre e o distinto» da cozinha trivial. E como
morrera pobre e modestamente se enterrou, tambêm não
panegirizaram a criatura com girândolas de adjectivos surrados pelo
uso e abuso da pindarização de todo o fiel bigorrilhas que morre e
deixa ôsso que roer.
Depois talvez fôsse assim melhor. ¿Que tinham que ver com êle
os adjectivos?
Se agora a matula egoísticada bichanava sempre que o via um
apodo desdenhoso, que resvalava do seu arnez de indiferença pelo
que diriam, tão longe andava dos que com êle se acotovelavam, em
tempos idos não faltaria o ingranzeu das turbas e o rumor falaz das
vélhas macbéticas do sítio, taxando de pacto diabólico o seu estudo,
qual outro Cláudio Frollo.
Todavia êle sem se agastar da indiferença duns, da parranice
doutros e do criminoso egoísmo de todos, contente se dava com a
sua estreiteza e, não requerendo melhoria de sorte, cada vez mais
se apartava do mundo real para o mundo de sonho. O trabalho para
êle era tudo. Confinava a sua casa com as estrêlas, vista cá
debaixo, da cidade, sitando lá no alto, ponto negrusco zimboriando o
alto do monte. Uma árvore anciã, fronteiriça, foi sua companhia e só
ela talvez cogitou na sua labuta interior. Ventos brigosos
sinfonizavam óperas de tormenta, numa orquestração como só a
tem o infinito. Tudo as sentia. A árvore vélha bracejava agitada e
angustiosamente. A cidade lá em baixo era um torvelinho de cousas
indistintas. Só êle prosseguia, medindo, classificando, registrando. E
podia um vento mau terremotar a casa. Podia um tufão furioso ir
desmoronar as sacas de crânios e formar no adro a pilha de crânios
que é o quadro de Verestchaguine, aquele pintor russo que morreu
na guerra russo-japoneza a bordo do Petropavlosk,—Après la
bataille. Êle não sentiria, êle continuaria as suas notas, e só as
terminaria quando nada mais, nenhuma sutura, nenhuma bossa,
nenhuma asimetria, houvesse a notular.
Se nunca foi aos cornos da glória é porque lhe faltava a
destridade dos malabaristas do reclamo. A sua tratabilidade de
sábio raso, sem alardos de sciência, nem emprenhidões de basófia,
contumaz em lusas celebridades, de todos o tornaram querido.
Depois um quási nada de antropófobo, a antropofobia do sábio que
se ensimesma em lucubrações profundas, e gasta a vida à luz
estudiosa. Era esta que, pelas negridões da noite, brilhava sempre
no seu gabinete, como na sua mente brilhou sempre a fé, a fé numa
perfectibilidade do homem e uma consolação no estudo, que, estou
certo, afinal talvez nunca chegasse a encontrar, que o tornavam
quási um estranho a tudo, a todos os arruídos e quermesses que lá
ao fundo convulsionavam a cidade.
E quem sabe lá, a esta hora talvez êle esteja ainda contando ao
verme as palavras enternecidas dos snrs. Manouvrier e Quatrefages
e as saudades dos seus crânios muito amados.
Então da outra vida, pensam as almas crentes, o sábio abençoará
de-certo e tarefa bondosíssima, devotada e carinhosa do Dr. Costa
Ferreira.
Emigrantes
PARO diante da reprodução dum quadro. É do Salon dêste ano,
intitula-se «Émigrants» e assina-o Paul Sieffert. Eu não conheço o
pintor. O assunto conheço demasiadamente. Se não viram o quadro,
eu conto. O quadro do sr. Paul Sieffert é uma gare ou cousa que o
valha. Cai neve. O horizonte é longínqùo e a perspectiva monótona.
Nem uma árvore, nem uma planta. Neve, montes ao longe, neve
sempre. Á direita vagons. Vagons de mercadorias, vagons que
esperam tempo de seguir, levando não se sabe o quê, ocupam
quási tôda a tela. No primeiro plano uma mulher sentada no chão
estende um peito à voracidade do petiz que manduca. O macho,
dorme ao lado, cabeça sôbre uma perna sua, braço estendido ao
longo do corpo. A mão é primorosa. O busto bem estudado. Na cara
—a cara é tôda uma psicologia—mostra a estereotipia de
inumeráveis privações. Parece repousar, ou sonhar, cavada a face,
bem vincadas as rugas que a angústia marca a baixo relevo no
rosto dos que sofrem. A mulher ao lado cogita. Parece olhar-nos.
Não olha. Ela não vê. Scisma! Em quê? Só ela o poderá dizer. Uma
trouxa mísera, junto, é tôda a bagagem. Êle tipo de operário, ela de
fêmea resoluta e sofredora. Vão partir. Vencerão? Quem o saberá?
Não sei porquê, são-me simpáticos estes tipos. Se pudesse,
protegia-os. Sucede muitas vezes a minha piedade ir de preferência
para os tipos que os meus pintores ou os meus artistas me
entremostram—tão pouco a merecem, os que a gente topa todos os
dias. Ao lado uma ranchada manduca, ainda. Mais longe, pequenos
ranchos, trocam esperanças. Um vulto, ao fundo ou quási, remexe a
maleta. E, como se o pintor os quisesse destacar, aparece-nos,
quási escondidamente, um vélho que sonha, pelas costas um vélho
capote, no olhar uma nostalgia feroz, contrastando com um homem
que, de bruços, rosto apoiado na palma, scisma. Não scisma em
sonhos. Scisma em realidades. A energia da sua expressão traduz-
se assim. É amargo. Êste homem sabe da vida. Há combates no
seu cérebro. Vencerá? Todos êles vão partir. Ilusões, quimeras,
esperanças, é a bagagem. Sabe-se lá quem vence?
Até aqui o quadro. Se a agente quiser realidade, apesar da tela
ser de Paris, temo-la bem perto. Nós somos do país da emigração.
O quadro de Sieffert é tambêm nosso, com a diferença de o nosso
ser de mais recrudescível agonia. O português é mais triste.
Todos os dias desembarcam nas estações, mangas de gente
engajada que sonhou e ainda vem sonhando. Vão até ao Brasil e
são o que se chama emigrantes. Então pagam a patente à
realidade. O emigrante, por via de regra, não sabe escrever. Soletra
às vezes, mas é mais frequente não saber. Não sabendo ler, não
tendo a confidência muda da escrita por derivativo, estes cérebros
deitam-se a sonhar como nunca sonhou ninguêm. As histórias das
princesas encantadas, as mágicas, os contos da carochinha e mil
belezas populares foram criadas de-certo por quem não sabia ler
nem escrever. O Sonho é a válvula. Ai daqueles pobres cérebros se
não tivessem o Sonho! Terminariam no suicídio. Mas o Sonho é a
miragem. Acreditou alguêm no Sonho? Sempre êsse alguêm pagou
caro a sua confiança. Porque é certo: Só quem teve pesadelo
acordou em realidade. Quem sonhou delícias acorda mais
brutalmente—como alguêm que tendo vivido dois meses em quarto
escuro o trouxessem de repente para a alacridade duma paisagem
batida da soalheira.
Sonham em Portugal, na solidão tranqùila da sua choça e quási
sempre vão acordar em longínqùas e estranhas terras. Olham em
volta. Quem? Ninguêm amigo. Indiferentes, criaturas a quem a dôr
alheia, à força de vista e assistida, embotou tôda a sensibilidade. A
saudade é o pior inimigo do emigrante. «Saudade gôsto amargo de
infelizes, delicioso pungir de acerbo espinho», diz Garrett. Mas a
saudade é tudo. Se se vê o mar, é um vapor que vem, porque vem;
se um vapor parte, ai quem déra ir com êle, partir tambêm com êle.
São os poentes, duma melancolia infinita, são as noites estreladas e
tropicais, são nuvens que passam correndo, farrapos de sonho,
recordações da infância, cousas dispersas. Tudo é saudade. E o
pobre animal, bêsta de carga, gaguejando comoções, tem nos olhos
uma angústia latente, uma tristeza intraduzível, mixto de resignação,
de sofrimento e dum consuntivo mal. Mas, parte. Armazenam-o a
bordo, num dêsses casarões flutuantes, âmbito estreito, muito
desabrigo, trato mercenário e uma grade que os enjaula num restrito
círculo de vida. Ali dormem, comem e sonham promíscuamente. E
naquelas longas noites de travessia, enxugadas as lágrimas da
partida, estranguladas as saudades da largada, só o mugir surdo
das vagas lambendo o casco e os ronquidos surdos da máquina
cumprindo o seu fadário. Pobres almas divagantes, vão tambêm
embaladas no sonho, confiadas, e não escutando, no marulho do
oceano, a sua raiva fria e hostil, mas um cântico embalador, que traz
de onda em onda, de vaga em vaga, as recordações distantes, a
misteriosa correspondência dos entes queridos que ficaram em
terra.