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Ngun: Cc trang web v Ck trong v ngoi nc. Cc ngun khc

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Nhm h s gi tr: Ch s EPS, P/E, P/B, ch s n D/E (Debt to Equity Ratio) Nhm cc h s ti chnh ROE, ROA, Cch phn tch cc h s t bo co ti chnh v cc bt ton tiu xo trong BCTC. Cch tnh dng tin v gi tr ni ti CP La chn CP theo PP CANSLIM B quyt u t theo PP Benjamin Graham

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EPS Thu nhp trn mt CP. Tng thu nhp sau thu - tng s c tc ca CP u i EPS = Tng s CP ang lu hnh Nhn xt: EPS l ch s cho bit kh nng sinh li ca Cty trn mi c phn ca c ng ng gp l bao nhiu. Nu ch s EPS cng cao th n cng cho thy kh nng sinh li ca Cty cng ln v ngc li. So snh ch s EPS qua cc thi k s gip chng ta bit c tc tng trng ca doanh nghip ang phn tch.

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Th gi hin ti ca CP

P/E =
Thu nhp ca CP (EPS)
Nhn xt: PE cho bit NT sn sng tr gi cho mi CP cao hn mc thu nhp hin ti bao nhiu ln PE l ch s cho bit gi CP ang mc c nh gi cao hay thp trn th trng. Nu ch s PE cng cao th n cho thy CP c th trng nh gi cao v ngc li. So snh ch s PE gia cc Cty cng ngnh nh gi gi tr ca CP mnh quan tm. Theo quan im "bo th", P/E di 10 th nn mua. Nu ang nm gi CP c mc P/E t 10 - 12 ln th khng nn bn v c th mua tip. P/E 12 - 18 c th mua c khi th trng ang trong giai on n nh theo hng tt. P/E t 18 tr ln xem xt bn CP. Tuy nhin, vi NT theo trng phi "tng trng", P/E c th c chp nhn cao hn nu tc tng LN (E) cao y l ch s m cc t chc ti chnh, qu u t ln nh HSBC, ML li dng tm l yu ca NT VN khi tung ra cc bo co xoay quanh ch s ny nhm nh th trng cho cc NT ca mnh mua vo.

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Ch s Gi/Gi tr s sch (Price-to-Book ratio, P/B Ratio) Gi hin ti ca CP (stock price)

P/B(ratio) =
Nhn xt:

Tng gi tr ti sn - gi tr ti sn v hnh v n

gi s rng Cty c gi tr ti sn ghi nhn trn bng cn i k

ton l 100 t, tng n l 75 t, nh vy gi tr ghi s ca Cty l 25 t. Nu hin ti Cty c 10 triu CP ang lu hnh, mi CP s i din cho 2.5k gi tr ghi s ca Cty. Nu mi CP ny c gi th trng l 50k, nh vy t l P/B l 2=5/2.5. P/B l cng c gip c th tm kim c cc CP c gi thp m phn ln th trng b qua. Nu mt Cty ang bn c phn vi mc gi thp hn gi tr ghi s ca n (tc l c t l P/B nh hn 1), khi c hai trng hp s xy ra: hoc l th trng ang ngh rng gi tr ti sn ca Cty b thi phng qu mc hoc l thu nhp trn ti sn ca Cty l qu thp.

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Ch s P/B ch thc s c ch khi xem xt cc Cty c mc tp

trung vn cao hoc cc Cty ti chnh bi gi tr ti sn ca cc Cty ny tng i ln. V cng tc k ton phi tun th theo nhng tiu chun ngt ngho, gi tr ghi s ca TS hon ton khng tnh ti cc TSVH nh thng hiu, nhn hiu, uy tn, bng sng ch v cc ti sn tr tu khc do Cty to ra. Gi tr ghi s khng c ngha nhiu lm vi cc Cty dch v v h gi tr ti sn hu hnh ca h khng ln V d: Microsoft l Cty m phn ln ti sn ca Cty ny l ti sn tr tu, cc bn quyn phn mm ch khng phi l cc ti sn hu hnh khc. C phn ca Cty ny chng my khi c bn vi gi thp hn 10 ln gi tr ghi s ca chng.

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D/E : Debt to Equity Ratio - N trn vn CSH

N phi tr

D/E =
Ngun vn ch s hu

DE l ch s cho bit ti sn ca Cty c hnh thnh ch yu l

do ngun no, n phi tr hay vn ch s hu

Ch s n trn vn ch s hu c dung phn tch t l

n phi tr trn vn ch s hu. Tuy nhin c mt s iu cn lu khi s dng ch s ny:

Gi tr ca n phi tr trn bo co gn vi gi tr thc t hn so vi vn ch s hu. Ty thuc vo quan im v n phi tr c bao gm thu thu nhp hon li phi tr hay LN phi chuyn v cho Cty m hay khng m ch s ny mang li nhng kt qu khc nhau.

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ROE : LN trn vn CSH LN sau thu ROE = Ngun vn ch s hu Nhn xt: ROE c dng o lng xem Cty tn dng vn ca NT tt n mc no. Hay hiu mt cch n gin ROE phn nh mc sinh li ca mt Cty, tnh hiu qu trong vic s dng ti sn c NT trang b. Thng thng th mt Cty tt th cn phi c ROE cao hn mc trung bnh ca cc Cty cng ngnh v iu ny cng ng ngha vi vic Cty kim c nhiu tin hn trn ng vn b ra u t Trung bnh ton th trng l 20,55% Ch s ny tng cao hng nm phn nh tim nng tng LN v qun l hiu qu ca cty. Ni chung, nn trnh nhng Cty c ch s ny nh hn 15%. Hu ht mi ngnh, ch s ny ca nhng Cty hng u thng t trong khong 20% n 30%, c bit c nhng Cty t trn 40%. Ch s ny c xu hng cao ln theo thi gian do vic p dng nhng cng ngh mi lm gim chi ph v nng cao nng sut

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ROA : LN trn ti sn LN sau thu ROA = Tng ti sn Nhn xt: Th hin Cty c c qun l tt hay khng? C hai ch s phn nh tnh hiu qu ca b my vn hnh Cty: t sut LN trn tng ti sn (ROA) v doanh s bn hng trn mt nhn vin ROA cho ta bit Cty thu li bao nhiu t tng s ti sn Cty s dng (gm vn CSH (vn gp ca tt c c ng) v cc khon vay - n) nn tm Cty c ROA cao hn cc Cty cng ngnh. Trung bnh ton th trng 11,69%

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Ch s LN thun/doanh thu: Cty hot ng c li nhiu khng? Mc LN ca Cty ph thuc rt nhiu vo chin lc pht trin th trng, kh nng tit kim chi ph v sc mnh cnh tranh ca cty. Nhn chung th mt cty tt thng lm n c li nhiu hn cc cty cng ngnh. Tuy nhin, cng c kh nhiu ngoi l, mt s doanh nghip phi hy sinh LN trong ngn hn nhm ti ngun LN lu di. Trung bnh ton th trng 9,95% Ch s n: Tng Vay n/Vn : Chnh sch v n ca Cty th no? T l n trn tng vn gip chng ta thy c kh nng chim dng vn ca Cty. Mi ngnh ngh kinh doanh li c mc n nn khc nhau, nn chng ta cn so snh t sut n vi cc Cty cng ngnh v vi bn thn Cty ang phn tch. Nu t xut ny c s khc bit ln, hoc thay i mnh, c th l tn hiu rt khng tt. Nu t sut ny qu cao, Cty c th ang chm trong lm nguy ti chnh; nu n qu thp, doanh nghip c th l c hi kim thm tin cho c ng (bng vic chim dng thm vn ca ngi khc, nh vay tn dng, mua tr chm v.v.) Trung bnh ton th trng: 1,02 Li c tc (Yield) - T l c tc ca Cty ra sao? C tc l khon tin m c ng c chia khi Cty lm n c li, c tc cao cng c ngha l c ng b ti u n nhiu tin. Tuy nhin bn phi ht sc thn trng vi chnh sch c tc ca cc Cty, nhiu Cty ang cn vn phat trin sn xut, thm ch phi vay ngn hng, nhng s gi CP s xung thp nu

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Beta (mc bin ng gi) - Gi CP ca Cty bin ng th no so vi bin ng chung ca ton th trng? Beta c dng o lng mc phn ng gi ca mt CP vi cc giao ng ca th trng trong qu kh. Bn thn th trng s c ch s beta = 1. Nhng CP c beta ln hn 1 tc l c ri ro cao hn th trng, khi ton th trng b mt gi, CP c xu hng mt gia nhiu hn, tuy nhin khi th trng tng gi u u th nhng CP ny c xu hng tng nhanh hn. Trn l thuyt, NT chp nhn CP c beta cao hn thng c n b bng thu nhp cao hn trong tng lai.
Vn th trng - CP ny c gip bn a dng ho danh mc u t ca mnh hay khng? Nhn chung th bn nn a dng ho u t ca mnh trnh ri ro tn tht ln c th sy ra. Trn thc t ti cc th trng pht trin, cc Cty c vn th trng cng ln th cng c ri ro thp. Do Vit Nam hin nay cha c tiu ch thng nht phn nhm cc Cty theo gi tr th trng chng ti so snh vn th trng ca Cty vi vn th trng trung bnh ca ton th trng bn t xc nh phn loi CP.

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ROI (H s thu nhp trn u t) - c Cty Du Pont pht trin cho mc ch s dng ring, nhng ngy nay n c rt nhiu Cty ln s dng nh l mt cch thc tin li xc nh tng th cc nh hng ca cc bin li nhun doanh thu tng ti sn
Cch tnh

Thu nhp rng

Doanh s bn
X =

Thu nhp rng

Tng ti sn

ROI =

Doanh s bn

Tng ti sn

Mc ch ca cng thc ny l so snh cch thc to li nhun ca mt Cty, v cch thc Cty s dng ti sn to doanh thu. Nu ti sn c s dng c hiu qu, th thu nhp (v ROI) s cao, v nu ngc li, thu nhp v ROI s thp.

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H s Tng li nhun - H s tng li nhun cho bit mc hiu qu khi s dng nguyn liu v lao ng trong quy trnh sn xut ca ban qun l mt Cty
Cch tnh

Doanh s bn
=

- Tr gi hng bn tnh theo gi mua

Tng li nhun

Doanh s bn

Khi chi ph lao ng v chi ph nguyn vt liu tng nhanh, h s tng li nhun chc chn s gim xung, tr khi Cty c th chuyn cc chi ph ny cho khch hng ca mnh di hnh thc nng gi bn sn phm. Mt cch tm xem cc chi ph ny c qu cao khng l so snh h s tng li nhun ca mt Cty vi h s ca cc Cty tng ng. Nu h s tng li nhun ca cc Cty i th cnh tranh cao hn, th Cty cn phi thc hin mt bin php no c c s kim sot tt hn i vi chi ph lao ng v nguyn liu.

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H s li nhun hot ng cho bit Ban qun l ca mt Cty thnh cng n mc no trong vic to ra li nhun t hot ng ca Cty
Cch tnh

EBIT
=

li nhun hot ng

Doanh thu

EBIT l thu nhp trc thu v li hay chnh l thu nhp tnh c sau khi ly doanh thu tr tr gi hng bn tnh theo gi mua v cc chi ph hot ng. H s ny l mt thc o n gin nhm xc nh on by hot ng m mt Cty t c trong vic thc hin hot ng kinh doanh ca mnh. H s bin li nhun hot ng cho bit mt la doanh thu c th to ra bao nhiu EBIT. H s li nhun hot ng cao c ngha l qun l chi ph c hiu qu hay ngha l doanh thu tng nhanh hn chi ph hot ng. Cc nh qun l cn phi tm ra cc nguyn nhn khin h s li nhun hot ng cao hay thp t h c th xc nh xem Cty hot ng c hiu qu hay khng, hoc xem gi bn sn phm tng nhanh hn hay chm hn chi ph vn.

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H s li nhun rng l h s t mi giai on kinh doanh. Ni cch khc y, l t s so snh li nhun rng vi doanh s bn.
Cch tnh

Mc li rng
=

H s li nhun rng

Doanh thu

Mt s Cty c mc li nhun rng hn 20%, v mt s khc c ch t khong t 3% n 5%. H s li nhun rng gia cc ngnh khc nhau l khc nhau. Thng thng, cc Cty c qun l tt t c mc li nhun rng tng i cao hn v cc Cty ny qun l cc ngun vn ca mnh c hiu qu hn. Xt t gc nh u t, mt Cty s vo tnh trng thun li s c mc li nhun rng cao hn li nhun rng trung bnh ca ngnh v nu c th, c mc li nhun lin tc tng. Ngoi ra, mt Cty cng gim chi ph ca mnh mt cch hiu qu- bt k doanh s no th mc li nhun rng ca n cng cao.

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H s thu hi n trung bnh cho bn bit Cty phi mt bao lu chuyn cc khon phi thu thnh tin mt. Lu rng doanh s bn thu tin ngay c loi khi tng doanh thu.
Cch tnh

cc khon phi thu Doanh s bn chu hng nm /360 ngy

H s thu hi n trung bnh =

V d: Nu bng cn i k ton ca mt Cty cho bit s liu ca cc khon phi thu l 700tr v bo co thu nhp ca n cho bit doanh s bn chu l 5t5 th 700.000 .000

K thu hi n trung bnh = 5.500.000.000/ 360 ngy

= 45.8 ngy.

Cng nh cc h s khc, k thu hi n trung bnh phi c xem xt trong mi lin h vi cc thng tin khc

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H s thu hi n trung bnh Nu chnh sch ca Cty l bn chu cho khch hng trong vng 38 ngy th thi hn 45.8 ngy cho thy l Cty gp kh khn trong vic thu hi n ng hn v cn xem xt li chnh sch bn chu ca mnh. Ngc li, nu chnh sch thng thng ca Cty l n nh thi hn thu hi n l 55 ngy, th thi hn trung bnh 45.8 ngy cho thy chnh sch thu hi n ca Cty l c hiu qu. Cn ch l h s thu hi n trung bnh ch l mt s trung bnh v c th dn n s hiu nhm. V d, xem xt Cty A v b, c cng gi tr cc khon phi thu nhng c thi biu thu hi n khc nhau.

% n thu hi c trong 10 ngy

Cty A 10

% n thu hi c trong 30 ngy

30

% n thu hi c trong 60 ngy

60

Cty B

60

30

10

Gi s Cty A v Cty B c chung mt s lng khch hng, khon phi thu th thi hn thu hi n trung bnh ca hai Cty ny s ging nhau. Nhng vic phn b cc k thu hi n li l yu t khng c cp n trong h s, r rng Cty B c li th hn nu ch nhn trn bng h s thu hi n trung bnh

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H s thanh ton trung bnh i lp vi cc khon phi thu l cc khon phi tr. tm ra thi hn thanh ton trung bnh i vi cc khon phi thu, ta chia cc khon phi tr cho tin mua hng chu mi nm.
Cc khon phi tr Thi hn thanh ton trung bnh = Tin mua hng chu hng nm / 360 ngy Tuy nhin, tin mua hng chu hng nm khng c cp trong mt bo co ti chnh. c c s liu ny, phi d tnh t l gi tr hng ho c mua chu V d: Gi nh rng s liu cc khon phi tr ca Cty l 275.000 USD. Nu gi mua hng l 3.000.000 USD v d tnh l 80% hng ho ny c mua chu th thi hn thanh ton trung bnh l bao nhiu? S tin mua chu hng nm s l 2.400.000 USD (3.000.000 x 0.80). By gi, thi hn thanh ton trung bnh i vi cc khon phi tr c th c tnh nh sau: 275.000 USD Thi hn thanh ton trung bnh = = 41.3 ngy 0.8 * 3.000.000 / 360 ngy

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H s thanh ton trung bnh: qua v d trn Thi hn thanh ton trung bnh (i vi
cc khon phi tr) ca Cty l 41.3 ngy. Bt k thi hn no ngn hn c ngha l ngi bn dnh cho Cty mt khon chit khu hoc ngi bn cho rng Cty ang trong tnh trng ri ro cao nn a ra cc iu khon cht ch hn v thi hn thanh ton n. Bt k thi hn no di hn cng c ngha l Cty nhn c cc iu khon tn dng u i, hay Cty l mt ngi tr chm, tc l Cty ang s dng nhng ngi cung cp nguyn liu nh mt ngun ti tr. Ngi bn, ni chung bao gi cng mun nhn c tin cng sm cng tt, thng tnh ton h s ny nhm bit c bao lu th h c th thu hi tin ca mnh t Cty. Do vic thanh ton chm thng c li cho Cty, nn nh qun l - ngi kim sot vic thanh ton c nhim v phi lm cn bng hai thi cc li ch gia nh cung cp v Cty. Nu thi hn thanh ton trung bnh ca ngnh vt qu h s ca Cty, th nh qun l c th tm ra l do ti sao vic mua chu ca Cty li b hn ch v phi lm g c c thi hn mua chu di hn t nhng nh cung cp.

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H s hng lu kho T l doanh s hng bn trn hng lu kho l quan trng i vi Cty bi v hng lu kho l loi ti sn t lu hot nht trong cc ti sn lu ng. V Cty phi dng mt lng vn duy tr hng lu kho nn Cty s c li khi bn hng cng nhanh cng tt lng hng ny gii phng tin mt cho cc mc ch s dng khc
Cch tnh

Ga tr hng bn tnh theo gi mua Gi tr hng lu kho trung bnh

H s hng lu kho =

V d: Nu gi tr hng ho bn hng nm ca mt Cty l $ 3.000.000 (tnh theo gi mua) v gi tr hng lu kho trung bnh l $ 300.000, th t l hng bn trn hng lu kho ca Cty ny s l 10 ln

S liu ny phi c so snh vi h s trung bnh ca ngnh trc khi a ra bt k mt bnh lun no, v cc h s trung bnh ca tng ngnh khc nhau rt ln

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Tnh trng n nn ca Cty: H s thu nhp tr li nh k nh gi kh nng s dng thu nhp hot ng (thu nhp trc thu v li - EBIT) tr li ca mt Cty. H s ny cho bit mt Cty c kh nng p ng c ngha v tr n li ca n n mc no. R rng, h s thu nhp tr li nh k cng cao th kh nng thanh ton li ca Cty cho cc ch n ca mnh cng ln. EBIT

H s thu nhp tr li nh k =

Chi ph tr li hng nm

V d: Nu EBIT l 8.000 USD v chi ph tin n li hng nm l 3.000USD th h s tr li nh k hng nm l 2,67 hay ni cch khc, thu nhp cao gp 2,7 ln chi ph tr li T l tr li thp cho thy mt tnh trng nguy him, suy gim trong hot ng kinh t c th lm gim EBIT xung di mc n li m Cty ny c hn ch bi thc t EBIT khng phi l ngun duy nht thanh ton li. Cc Cty cng c th to ra ngun tin mt t khu hao v c th s dng ngun vn tr n li. Nhng g m mt Cty cn phi t ti l to ra mt an ton hp l, bo m kh nng thanh ton cho cc ch n ca mnh. Ch ring h s thu nhp tr li nh k th cha nh gi mt Cty v h s ny cha cp n cc khon thanh ton c nh khc nh tin n gc, chi ph tin thu v chi ph c tc u i

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Tnh trng n nn ca Cty: H s trang tri chung. Do H s thu nhp tr li nh k cha nh gi. Cc ngun thu tin mt

H s trang tri chung

+ +

Tt c chi ph trong mu s ca h s ny l c nh v u phi c cn nhc. r rng, mt Cty v cc nh u t ca Cty mun c h s trang tri chung cao nht, nhng iu ny ph thuc mt phn vo kh nng sinh li ca Cty. Khi cc h s n ln qu mc, Cty c th nhn thy chi ph vn ca mnh tng ln. Gi tr cc c phiu ca Cty cng c th gim xung tng ng vi mc ri ro ca Cty tng ln. Do , cc nh qun l ti chnh phi thn trng trnh tnh trng n trm trng trong c cu vn ca mnh. Cc ngun d liu quan trng ca ngnh c th tm thy trong cc BCTC hng qu t TTDGCK v cc ngnh sn xut, bn l, khai thc m. Bn cng c th tham chiu cc bo co ca cc t chc nh mc tn nhim c cc s liu tng hp tng t. Tm tt: Cc NT cn quan tm n cc ch s EPS, PE, ROE, ROA, PB v cc ch s nu chn CP thch hp.

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PHN 2

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Mc ch ca tr ph php BCTC: C nhiu l do m cc nh lnh o Cty cho ph php BCTC nhm mc ch y gi CP ca mnh ln cao.
Ph php thng qua cc c tnh k ton: Trong qu trnh lp bo co ti chnh, cc Cty thng s dng rt nhiu cc c tnh k ton (Accrual earnings management) c nh hng trc tip ti LN trong k ca Cty. V khng c mt tiu chun chnh xc v gi tr cc c tnh ny, nn n c xem l mt cng c c lc ph php LN. Mt s th thut lm tng mc LN thng gp nh gim mc khu hao, gim mc d phng, gim gi hng tn kho, gim d phng n kh i, khng ghi nhn chi ph khi ti sn b gim gi xung di gi tr thun, vn ho cc khon chi ph khng iu kin... Th thut ph php LN da trn cc c tnh k ton thc cht khng lm tng LN m ch n thun chuyn LN ca k sau sang k hin ti. Hu qu tt yu l LN cc nm sau s b gim. tip tc p ng k vng ngy cng cao ca th trng, bo co ti chnh cc nm tip theo cng phi c ph php. Tuy nhin, cng v sau, mc LN cn ph php cng ln khin cho vic s dng cc c tnh k ton tr ln v hiu. n khi giy khng th gi c la, khng hong l iu kh trnh khi

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Ph php thng qua cc giao dch thc: ph php LN thng qua vic gin xp mt s giao dch thc (Real earnings management) nhm tng LN trong nm hin ti, mc d cc giao dch c th khng c li cho Cty v lu di.
1. Tng doanh thu (DT) thng qua cc chnh sch gi v tn dng Mt bin php cc doanh nghip thng s dng tng LN khi thy c nguy c khng t k hoch t ra l gim gi bn hoc ni lng cc iu kin tn dng nhm tng lng hng bn ra trong nhng thng cui nm ti chnh. Bin php th hai l cng b k hoch tng gi bn u nm sau. V d, tng LN Qu IV/2007, mt Cty sn xut t c th cng b k hoch tng gi bn t Qu I/2008, lp tc DT Qu IV/2007 s tng vt. Hai bin php ny cho php Cty tng LN trong nm hin ti, nhng s b gim vo cc nm sau, v thc cht Cty chuyn LN ca nm sau sang nm hin ti. Mt khc, tng gi bn nm sau cn lm gim kh nng cnh tranh ca Cty trn th trng.

2. Ct gim chi ph hu ch
Ct gim chi ph hu ch nh chi ph nghin cu v pht trin (R&D), chi ph qung co, chi ph duy tu, bo dng thit b cng l cng l mt cch c th lm tng LN. Tuy nhin, v cc chi ph ny c vai tr cc k quan trng i vi s pht trin ca Cty v lu di, nn s dng gii php ny cng ng ngha vi vic hy sinh cc khon LN tim nng trong tng lai.

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Ph php thng qua cc giao dch thc: Ngoi ph php thng qua cc c tnh k ton, doanh nghip cn c th ph php LN thng qua vic gin xp mt s giao dch thc (Real earnings management) nhm tng LN trong nm hin ti, mc d cc giao dch c th khng c li cho Cty v lu di.
3. Tr hon thanh l ti sn khng c nhu cu s dng hoc cc khon u t khng hiu qu i vi cc ti sn doanh nghip khng c nhu cu s dng hoc cc khon u t khng mang li hiu qu, gii php ti u l thanh l cng sm cng tt. Tuy nhin, thanh l ti sn thng em li mt khon l cho Cty trong nm hin ti. Do , nu LN trong nm hin ti c nguy c khng t c mc k vng ca th trng, lnh o Cty c th khng mun thanh l, mc d tr hon s gy nhiu thit hi cho Cty nh lm pht sinh chi ph bo qun, cn tr khng gian sn xut. Vi cc ti sn v cc khon u t khng hiu qu th cng nm gi lu, doanh nghip cng l 4. Bn cc khon u t hiu qu Ngoi tr hon thanh l cc khon u t khng hiu qu, Cty c th bn cc khon u t sinh li nhm tng thm LN cho nm hin ti. ng thi ny c v nh gt la non. V th, p dng bin php trn c ngha l Cty t nguyn b qua tim nng sinh li ln t cc khon u t ny trong nhng nm tip theo. 5. Sn xut vt mc cng sut ti u Trong iu kin thng thng, mi doanh nghip thng xc nh mt mc cng sut ti u, tu thuc vo nng lc ni ti cng nh iu kin th trng Tuy nhin, trong trng hp cn tng LN, Cty c th quyt nh sn xut vt mc cng sut ti u. iu ny cho php Cty gim gi thnh n v sn phm nh tn dng chi ph c nh. Mt tri ca bin php ny l my m, thit b phi lm vic qu mc nh hng tiu c ti nng sut v bn. Ngoi ra, sn phm lm ra nhiu, nu khng bn c, s pht sinh chi ph bo qun v hng tn kho lu ngy s b gim gi tr.

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C hai bin php ph php bo co ti chnh (da trn cc c tnh k ton hay cc giao dch thc), v bn cht, ch l chuyn LN ca cc nm sau sang nm hin ti. im khc bit l ch: trong khi s dng cc c tnh k ton khng lm thay i kh nng sinh li ch thc ca doanh nghip, th vic s dng cc giao dch thc ph php LN s gy ra nhng nh hng tiu cc n kh nng sinh li ca Cty trong di hn. Xt v mt ny, lm tng LN thng qua cc c tnh k ton c a chung hn. Tuy nhin, trong nhiu trng hp, s dng cc c tnh k ton khng sc gip cc doanh nghip t c mc LN k vng v c th s gp tr ngi t pha kim ton vin. Do , doanh nghip c th phi dng n cc giao dch thc tng LN. Kim ton vin d pht hin cc th thut ny nhng v n tun th cc chun mc k ton, nn cng khng th yu cu doanh nghip iu chnh li

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Tm li, d p dng bin php no, v lu di u khng c li cho NT cng nh cho chnh Cty. Xt trn phm vi ton x hi, hu qu cn nng n hn, v b bi ti chnh ca mt Cty khng ch nh hng ring n Cty , m cn lm xi mn lng tin ca NT i vi th trng. ngn chc nhng tc ng tiu cc ca Overvaluation, cc doanh nghip cn c thc cung cp thng tin y v minh bch cho nh u t. Bn cnh , cc NT cng cn tnh to khng y mi vic i qu xa vt tm kim sot. Tuy nhin, nhiu khi li ch ngn hn ca Overvaluation qu hp dn khin cc doanh nghip kh c th cng li c. Theo nh nhn xt ca Gio s M.C Jensen, Gim c Cty T vn Qun tr doanh nghip Monitor Group: Overvaluation cng ging nh mt loi heroin. N mang cho ta cm gic lng lng lc ban u, nhng khng lu sau s l nhng ni au khng cng.

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Chin Chin La

lc u t theo WAREN BUFFET

lc u t theo BENJAMIN GRAHAM

chn CP theo Phng php CANSLIM

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Warren Buffett - ngi c xem l NT ti chnh thnh cng nht th gii cho n hin ti. ng tng l ngi giu nht th gii, v hin ti l ngi giu th ba th gii ng t ra cc nguyn tc v thc hin theo cc nguyn tc

u t vo Cty ch khng u t vo CP

u t theo gi tr thc: Nhng cu hi Warren Buffett t ra trc khi quyt nh chn Cty/CP u t Chn thi im mua Khng quan tm (b ngoi tai) mt s vn . Danh ngn (W.B)

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u t vo Cty ch khng u t vo CP: Warren Buffett quan nim rng CP ch l t giy chng nhn quyn s hu ca c ng i vi Cty . ng khng u t vo CP, m u t vo Cty. Ni mt cch khc, ng hon ton khng quan tm n vic mua i bn li CP trong thi gian ngn. Thay vo , ng p dng chin lc buy and hold - mua v gi ngha l ng s gi CP trong thi gian di, rt di v i khi gi lun nu l nhng Cty ng xc nh l chin lc ca mnh

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u t theo gi tr thc: Nhng cu hi Warren Buffett t ra trc khi quyt nh chn Cty/CP u t: - Cty c pht trin tt khng, c li th cnh tranh khng? Warren Buffett ch mun mua CP ca Cty c li th cnh tranh cao; hoc l Cty dn u th trng ca ngnh kinh doanh chnh ca n; hoc l c thng hiu c khch hng nh gi cao. ng khng mun u t vo nhng Cty khng c li th cnh tranh v ch c th cnh tranh bng cch gim gi bn. ng cn xt xem Cty m ng sp u t c nguy c b Cty ln mnh khc nhy vo cnh tranh hay khng. ng l ngi sng ch ra t economic moat ng Cty c li th cnh tranh v to ra hng ro ngn cn s cnh tranh ca cc Cty khc.

- Cty c m hnh kinh doanh n gin khng? Warren Buffett ch u t vo cc Cty c m hnh n gin, d hiu, khng qu phc tp. ng ch u t vo nhng ngnh m ng bit rt r. - LN Cty tt, tng trng n nh khng?

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u t theo gi tr thc: Nhng cu hi Warren Buffett t ra trc khi quyt nh chn Cty/CP u t :

- T s n trn vn c thp khng? T s LN trn n c cao khng? Gi s LN khng t c mc k vng, Cty c kh nng tr c nhng mn n n hn khng?

- T l LN trn vn u t c tt khng? y l mt trong nhng ch s m Buffett c bit quan tm. ng ch u t vo nhng Cty to ra mc LN tt. - Chi ph vn hnh ca Cty c mc chp nhn c hay khng?

- Dng tin mt u t c ln to ra LN v s tng trng?

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u t theo gi tr thc: Nhng cu hi Warren Buffett t ra trc khi quyt nh chn Cty/CP u t: - Cty c gi li LN ti u t hay khng? Vic Cty chia c tc hay khng chia c tc l mt trong nhng im khc bit gia Benjamin Graham v Warren Buffett. Benjamin Graham cho rng Cty nn chia c tc cho nh u t. i vi ng, c tc c chia tt hn c tc c gi li trong Cty. Trong khi , Warren Buffett mun Cty gi li LN ti u t. ng cho rng, nu nh Cty ang lm ra LN tt - bng hay cao hn mc li sut mong mun - th Cty nn gi LN li ti u t. Khi Cty s tr thnh mt my in tin vi tc ngy cng tng cao nh hiu ng tuyt vi ca li sut kp.

- Ban lnh o c gii, c tm nhn, c b dy thnh tch v qun l kinh doanh, c o c khng? Buffett ch u t vo nhng Cty ng tin rng ban lnh o c nng lc.

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Chn thi im mua: ng khng bao gi vi v mua nhng CP c bin an ton khng r rng. Thng th ng s i khi th trng vo giai on iu chnh hoc khi th trng ang thi k gim gi mnh. Khi ng s mua c CP ca Cty vi gi thp hn gi tr ni ti ca n. Phng php u t n gin ny gip ng thnh cng ln v tr thnh mt trong nhng ngi c ti sn ln nht th gii. N cng gip ng thot c tn tht trong nhng giai on m hu ht mi ngi u b thit hi, v d nh giai on CP cc Cty Internet bng n v sp . Tuy vy, ng b mt s ngi ph bnh l qu thn trng v v th b qua nhng c hi ln.

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Khng quan tm : Vi chin lc u t ni trn Warren Buffett khng quan tm nhiu n s ln xung ca gi c th trng chng khon cng nh chu k kinh t. Ni ng hn ng ch quan tm n vic ln xung gi khi ng chn thi im mua. Khi mua ri, ng khng quan tm n s ln xung ca gi na. Mt im na kh c bit l ng rt t quan tm n vic a dng ha danh mc u t. Nhiu NT nghin cu v thc hin thnh cng cc phng php a dng ha danh mc u t tc l chn nhiu CP ca cc Cty khc nhau, ngnh khc nhau c tc dng b sung, tng h nhm t c LN cao nht c th trong khi gim ri ro n mc thp nht. Warren Buffett khng theo trng phi a dng ha ny. ng cho rng nu chn c doanh nghip tt u t th s t LN cao v ri ro thp. Vic a dng ha danh mc u t, tc l chn thm nhng CP khc vo danh mc u t s gim LN cao to ra t Cty/CP chnh yu. Theo ng, nu l u t vo doanh nghip c li sut thp hn k vng, th hy rt ra cng sm cng tt, v cng lu, NT cng b l v v th mt c hi u t Cty tt. Cn nu u t ng Cty lm n

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Li hay p :
Lut s 1: ng bao gi thua l. Lut s 2: Khng c bao gi qun lut s 1. Nguyn tc ny khc hn vi nguyn tc c bn ca cc nh kinh doanh CP thnh cng: phi bit chp nhn thng v thua. Gi l nhng g chng ta phi tr. Gi tr l nhng g chng ta nhn c. Nu l NT bn hy tp trung vo vic Cty s hot ng kinh doanh nh th no. Nu l nh u c, bn hy quan tm n gi th trng ca n, v khng phi l cch lm hay cuc chi ca chng ti. Nguyn tc lm giu: Hy s hi khi nhng ngi khc tham lam. Hy tham lam khi nhng ngi khc s hi. (Theo ng khi s ng tham lam s y gi CP ln qu cao, vt qua gi tr tht. Cn khi s ng s hi s y gi CP xung to ra nhng CP c bin an ton, v LN trong tng lai cao). Thi gian l k th ca nhng doanh nghip lm n thua l v l bn ca doanh nghip ang n nn lm ra. Nu doanh nghip bn u t c t sut LN trn vn ch s hu 20-25%, thi gian l bn ca bn. Nu t sut LN ca doanh nghip thp hn mc bn mong mun th thi gian l k th ca bn.

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Gii thiu: L mt NT thnh cng, Benjamin Graham c xem nh ng thy

ca Wall Street v cng l ngi i u trong chin lc u t theo gi tr

Ba tiu chun chnh

1/ Ch tiu LN

2/ doanh thu (Lng hng bn). 3/ Ch tiu LN/doanh thu

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1/ Ch tiu LN

Thu nhp dng hay LN sau thu c th c xem xt bng tng LN hay xt trn mt n v CP (EPS). Mt Cty c s gia tng v tc tng trng thu nhp khi tc tng trng thu nhp ca qu sau cao hn qu trc. Mt CP tt c tc gia tng v tng trng thu nhp cao hn so vi 3 hay 4 qu trc lin k. Tng trng ca ch s thu nhp t nht l 25% so vi cng qu ca nm trc. EPS hng nm ca CP tt t nht phi tng trng 25% so vi 3 nm trc . Theo cch ngh thng thng th nn chn mua nhng CP c P/E thp (P/E: Ch s gi chia cho thu nhp ca mi CP), v cho rng nhng CP c ch s ny cao l t v khng nn mua. Thc t cho thy, nhng CP tt nht thng c ch s ny cao. Nn chn CP ca nhng Cty thua l trc khi Cty tr li trng thi c li khi cc NT khc pht hin ra n. Mt s tiu ch chn la CP cn c vo ch tiu LN bao gm: Da vo thc hin thu nhp quan trng hn thu nhp d kin; la chn nhng Cty c tc tng trng thu nhp t nht 25% qu gn nht; la chn Cty c s gia tng v tc tng trng thu nhp 3 hay 4 qu gn nht; la chn Cty c thu nhp hng nm tng trng t nht 25% so vi mi nm ca 3 nm trc.

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1/ Ch tiu LN

EPS c th c xem xt bng tng LN hay xt trn mt n v CP. Mt Cty c s gia tng v tc tng trng thu nhp khi tc tng trng EPS ca qu sau cao hn qu trc. Mt CP tt l CP c tc tng trng EPS cao hn so vi 3 hay 4 qu trc lin k. Tng trng ca ch s thu nhp t nht l 25% so vi cng qu ca nm trc. EPS hng nm ca CP tt t nht phi tng trng 25% so vi 3 nm trc . Theo cch ngh thng thng th nn chn mua nhng CP c P/E thp, v cho rng nhng CP c ch s ny cao l t v khng nn mua. Thc t cho thy, nhng CP tt nht thng c ch s ny cao. Nn chn CP ca nhng Cty thua l trc khi Cty tr li trng thi c li khi cc NT khc pht hin ra n. Mt s tiu ch chn la CP cn c vo ch tiu LN bao gm: Da vo thc hin thu nhp quan trng hn thu nhp d kin; la chn nhng Cty c tc tng trng thu nhp t nht 25% qu gn nht; la chn Cty c s gia tng v tc tng trng thu nhp 3 hay 4 qu gn nht; la chn Cty c thu nhp hng nm tng trng t nht 25% so vi mi nm ca 3 nm trc.

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2/ doanh thu (Lng hng bn).

Lng hng bn l ch tiu quan trng nht o lng mt Cty c sc mnh hay khng v l nhn t chnh ca tng trng. Khi chn la CP tt hy tm Cty c tc bn hng mnh lm tin cho tng trng thu nhp. Mt s biu hin c th xem xt khi mt Cty gia tng lng hng bn nh nhiu khch hng hn, khch hng tng lng mua, Cty gii thiu sn phm mi hoc thm nhp vo th trng mi, Cty ci thin sn phm c. Tiu ch xc nh Cty c tng trng bn hng tt nu 3 qu gn nht c s tng lng hng bn ln hn hoc bng 25% so vi qu gn nht trc

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2/ doanh thu (Lng hng bn).

Cn xem xt k ch tiu doanh thu v i khi lng hng bn vn n cha nhng vn . Cty c th qu ph thuc vo mt s khch hng, ph thuc qu nhiu vo mt s mt hng hay qu ph thuc vo th trng xut khu. Vi nhng nh bn l, nu m thm mt ca hng mi cng lm tng thm lng hng bn ngay c khi lng hng bn nhng ca hng c ang xu i. Cng cn lu n vic Cty thm vo lng hng bn c m thc t n cha xy ra, hay cc n t hng m khng c chuyn i hay cha thu c tin bn c hch ton lm gia tng lng hng bn.

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3/ Ch tiu LN/doanh thu

LN rng nh gi t l chuyn doanh thu thnh thu nhp. Trn quan im ca nh u t, nn tm nhng Cty c s tng v t l LN dng/doanh thu. Con s ny cng ln th Cty c s tt ln v qun l v c s tt ln trong LN dng cc hot ng. LN rng c th l u mi ch yu tm CP mua v nn so snh ch s ny gia cc Cty c ngnh ngh tng ng. Tiu ch xc nh cho ch tiu ny l LN trc thu t nht t 18% doanh thu. Yu cu LN sau thu lun t 10% tr ln. Tuy nhin, cng cn phi xt c nhng ch tiu c bn khc nh tng trung thu nhp. Mc tng v LN rng s t i nu doanh thu gim, ngoi tr c s thay i v chin lc ca Cty khi ct gim nhng dy chuyn sn xut khng hiu qu. Nu LN c xu hng gim, c th l tn hiu cho thy Cty ang nh mt li th cnh tranh.

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Gii thiu: William J. ONeil l mt mu NT chng khon thnh cng ti M. Khi nghip bng ngh k ton

vin, ng nhanh chng b cun vo cn st CP trn th trng chng khon, ri vi nhng cng thc u t ca ring mnh, ng tr thnh mt nh ph thu ti Wall Street khi thu v hng triu USD LN mi nm t CP. Hin William l ch tch kim gim c iu hnh hng nghin cu u t William J. ONeil & Company do chnh ng thnh lp

Cc tiu chun chnh

C: Current Quaterly Earnings Per Share (li rng trn mi CP ca qu

gn nht) A: Annual Earnings Increases (s gia tng li rng hng nm) N: New Products, New Management, New Highs (sn phm mi, s qun l mi, mc gi trn mi) S: Supply and Demand (ngun cung v cu) L: Leader and Laggard (CP u bng v CP tt hu) I: Institutional Sponsorship (s ng h ca cc nh ch ti chnh v u t)
M: Market Direction (nh hng th trng)

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trn mi CP ca qu gn nht) William nhn nh rng, hu ht cc CP tt u c s gia tng LN so vi cng qu nm trc v t l tng cng cao th chng t CP cng c nhiu trin vng. Theo ng, cc NT trc khi b tin ra mua CP cn xem xt ti s gia tng mnh m LN ca CP , c th l mc tng trng ca li rng trn mi CP trong 3 thng gn nht.

Tiu chun C: Current Quaterly Earnings Per Share (li rng

Nhng phi tm hiu s gia tng LN ny u v nh th no? William cho rng NT c th nghin cu cc bo co ti chnh c kim ton ca Cty nim yt, cng vi vic thm d cc cc knh thng tin khc nh bo ch, ngi quen... iu quan trng l cc NT cn coi trng tin cy v tnh ng nht ca thng tin, chng hn c th c iu g khng ng, nu doanh thu ca Cty tng 20%, trong khi li rng ch tng 5%.

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Tiu chun A: Annual Earnings Increases (s gia tng li rng hng

nm) Theo ONeil, CP tt l CP c mc gia tng LN u n trong vng 5 nm trc . Cc NT cn c bit lu ti cc CP c mc gia tng LN hng nm n nh v t trn 25%, tuy nhin nn ch ti chu k kinh doanh ca tng ngnh, tng Cty. Theo ONeil, tiu ch ny c th gip bn loi b khong 80% cc CP ti.
c c s chnh xc v mc gia tng LN, NT cn nghin cu tt c cc thng tin lin quan n Cty m h mun u t. Cc thng tin ny bao gm lch s v c im ca Cty, tnh hnh ti chnh, cc chi tit ca t pht hnh CP v t chc bo lnh pht hnh CP. NT c th tm cc thng tin ny trong Bn thng co pht hnh, trong Bo co ti chnh ca Cty hoc t cc Cty dch v t vn u t. Cc quyt nh u t ch nn a ra khi bn c c s thng tin v CP cng nh v mc tng trng li rng hng nm.

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Tiu chun N: New Products, New Management, New

Highs (sn phm mi, s qun l mi, mc gi trn mi) Nhng nghin cu ca William ch ra rng gi CP tng s bt ngun t mt s nhn t ni ti no . Nhng nhn t ny thng l sn phm mi ca Cty, ban gim c mi, phng thc qun l mi hay mc gi trn mi ca CP trn th trng chng khon. Do vy, s khng bao gi tha nu cc NT quan tm n nhng nhn t ni ti ny. Nu xt thy nhng nhn t ny c s n nh, khng c biu hin t bin theo chiu hng xu, th s l mt CP c nhiu trin vng tng trng trn th trng chng khon.

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Trong KD, quy lut cung cu lun c nh hng rt ln n gi thnh sn phm, v u t CK cng khng phi l mt ngoi l. Gi CP cng chu tc ng t quy lut cung cu. William cho rng CP ca cc Cty i chng, c quy m ln, sn phm cht lng khng phi lc no cng ng mua, bi lng cu ca nhng CP ny kh ln, trong khi ngun cung li t nn gi thng b y ln cao gi to, khng phn nh ng gi tr thc t ca CP cng nh rt kh sinh LN ln. Chnh nhng CP c s lng lu hnh thp trn th trng mi c nhiu trin vng v c kh nng tng gi hn so vi cc CP c s lng lu hnh ln. T suy ra, CP c cc nh qun tr hng u nm gi vi t l ln thng l nhng CP c an ton cao. William c bit lu ti cc CP c Cty mua li v CP ca cc Cty c t l n di hn trn vn t c va phi, bi theo ng th t l ny cng cao bao nhiu Cty s cng phi ng u vi p lc tr li trong tng lai nhiu by nhiu. Cc NT nn so snh t s ny Cty mnh d nh u t vi t s n bnh qun cc

Tiu chun S: Supply and Demand (ngun cung v cu)

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Tiu

chun L: Leader and Laggard (CP u bng v

CP tt hu) Theo ONeil, NT trn th trng ch nn mua 2 hay 3 CP tt nht trong nhm nhng CP u bng hin ti, cn li nn dnh tin cho nhng CP c kh nng sinh li trong tng lai. c bit, cc NT cn trnh mua nhng CP c mc tng trng cao nhng khng bn vng, chng hn nh CP ln gi theo tro lu, theo s kin ni bt bi v cc CP ny c nh gi l nhng CP tt hu, khng sm th mun cng mt gi.

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nh ch ti chnh v u t)

Tiu chun I: Institutional Sponsorship (s ng h ca cc

nh ch ti chnh u t y thng l cc

c quan chc nng, cc c quan chnh ph chuyn v ti chnh u t. Cc c quan ny c th nm gi mt s lng CP nht nh ca cc Cty no , nh vy m Cty s c s ng h v tr gip mnh m t nhng c quan ny, mt iu kin v cng thun li cho hot ng kinh doanh, khin gi CP tng mnh. Tuy nhin, mt s lng qu ln cc nh ch ti chnh u t nm gi CP li tr thnh yu t bt li, v iu ng ngha vi vic ngun cung s hn ch bi cc c quan t khi mun bn tng phn CP

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Tiu chun M: Market Direction (nh hng th trng)

Cho d bn hon ton chnh xc khi nhn nh v c 6 tiu ch k trn, nhng n tiu ch nh hng th trng bn mc phi sai lm th s c n 5 trong s 7 CP bn mua s mt gi v khin bn thua l. Yu t th trng l rt quan trng bi n nh hng mnh m n gi CP. Khi hng lot cc CP cng ngnh trn th trng b mt gi, th

gi CP ca Cty m bn la chn chc chn cng s st gim theo. Ngc li, nu gi CP ca cc Cty ny tng theo s pht trin ca th trng th CP bn mua vo cng c n theo nhng ch s tch cc . Do , William nhn mnh n tm quan trng ca vic nghin cu cc th bin ng gi chng khon theo ngy, theo tun v theo thng trc mi quyt nh u t CP.

Mt trong nhng thnh cng ln nht ca William l u t vo CP ca hng dc phm Syntex. y l hnh ng to bo v liu lnh, theo nh gi ca cc NT chuyn nghip lc by gi, bi Syntex l hng sn xut thuc trnh thai u tin trn th gii. Nhng ri kt qu chng minh quyt nh ca William l ng. Ch mt thi gian ngn sau , Syntex cng b doanh thu hng qu tng trng trn 300% v CP ca Syntex t ch cn n danh vi mc gi 100 USD/CP tr thnh CP tng trng mnh m vi mc gi 550 USD/CP trong vng cha y su thng. Chnh nh khon LN kch s t Syntex m William c tin thnh lp Cty William J. ONeil & Company ca ring mnh.

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Goerge Soros, mt trong nhng NT ln nht ti ph

Wall, c kt rng: Khng c lnh vc no em li LN nhanh v ln bng u t CK. C kh nhiu ngi xem vic u t CK l cuc chi ngu hng vi hy vng s kim c nhiu tin mt cch nhanh chng. Tuy nhin, lnh vc u t y hp dn ny dng nh khng c ch cho nhng quyt nh theo cm tnh. i vi William ONeil cng nh nhiu cy i th khc ti ph Wall, cc quyt nh la chn CP cn c da trn s phn tch v phi kt hp gia cc yu t nh lng v nh tnh. Cha kho PT trong u t CP l tm ra nhng CP c tim nng tng trng ln nht trong thi im bn mua chng. Ni cch khc, bn phi c k nng phn on, xem xt v phn tch vn cng vi vic hoch nh mt k hoch u t thch hp xc nh thi im mua vo nhng CP mnh v bn i nhng CP yu.
Adwin