Lp k hoch ti chnh v thm nh d n u t

1. Tng quan v lp k hoch ti chnh v tnh ton dng tin ca d n u t 2. Thm nh v ra quyt nh u t

1. Tng quan v lp k hoch ti chnh v tnh ton dng tin cho d n

The Importance of Capital Budgeting
Bn hiu nh th no v hoch nh u t?
0 -500m 1 150m 2 250m 3 300m n CFn

All of the cash flow estimates are forwardlooking.

1.2. Tnh ton dng tin

Dng tin t do ca d n
Free cash flow l s tin cn li to ra t hot ng ca d n sau khi tr i cc khon u t thm cho ti sn di hn v vn lu ng rng ca d n.
It is cash a firm can distribute to creditors and stockholders.

u t lin quan n d n
Long-term Assets
plant equipment Licenses

Working Capital
cash and cash equivalents accounts receivable Inventories accounts payable.

1.2. Calculating Project Cash Flows

FCF Calculation
C th tnh FCF trc tip hoc gin tip, nhng phng php thng c s dng l gin tip: FCF = [(Revenue Op Exp D&A) x (1 t)] + D&A Cap Exp Add WC (11.2)
Op Exp = operating expenses D&A = depreciation & amortization Cap Exp = capital expenditures Add WC = additional working capital t = tax rate

The Free Cash-Flow Calculation

V d
Gi s bn ang lm cho mt trung tm ngh thut bi din ngoi tri v ang cn phi nh gi mt d n m rng s gh ngi bng cch xy dng thm 4 khu ngi trong nh v 5000 ngh ngi ngoi tri. Mi khu ngi trong nh c k vng to ra doanh thu hng nm l $400000, trong khi nhng ch ngi ngoi tri mi s to ra doanh thu hng nm l $2500. Chi ph khng k khu hao ca d n l 60% tng doanh thu. D n xy dng mi ny s mt 10 triu USD v c khu hao theo phng php ng thng trong vng 10 nm. D n cng cn b ra ngay 1triu USD cho vn lu ng rng, nhng nhu cu vn lu ng rng s khng tng thm trong sut cc nm hot ng v c thu hi ton b khi d n kt thc. Bit thu thu nhp l 30%, tnh dng tin ca d n qua cc nm

FCF Calculation Worksheet for the Performing Arts Center Project

Completed FCF Calculation Worksheet for the Performing Arts Center Project

Using Excel Performing Arts Center Project

1. 2. Estimating Cash Flows

5 Nguyn tc tnh ton dng tin cho d n 1. Include cash flows only Do not include allocated costs or overhead unless they occur because of the project. 2. Include the impact of the project on cash flows of other product lines If a project is expected to affect cash flows of another project, include the expected impact on the cash flows of the other project in the analysis. 3. Include all opportunity costs Benefits that could have been earned by choosing another project are a cost to the firm. 4. Ignore sunk costs Sunk costs have already been incurred or committed to and will not be influenced by the project. 5. Include only after-tax cash flows Incremental pre-tax cash flows earnings of a project only matter to the extent that they determine the free after-tax cash flows.

Ch
Tnh ton y cc hng mc u t ban u, u t thm qua cc nm ca d n. Lp bng khu hao ph hp cho tng loi ti sn c nh tng hp nn bng khu hao ca d n Nghin cu th trng, d on doanh thu, chi ph, nhu cu vn lu ng rng, t l tng trng, gi tr thanh l st vi thc t, bi cnh u t. Nn c s iu chnh doanh thu cho ph hp vi tnh hnh kinh t v vng i ca sn phm. Not only you need to forecast, but you also need to explain why and how you come up with those forecast, be reasonable and practical Gi bn trung bnh trn mt sn phm khng nn nh hn tng ca.
cost of making the unit fixed cost (overhead) for the unit adequate return (in $) for the unit

Estimating Average Price of a Unit

Ex: Gi s bn d nh kinh doanh bnh m Doner-kebab cng trng Ngoi Thng. Tng vn u t cho ti sn c nh l 10.000.000 ng lm khong 4000 sn phm. Bn phi b ra chi ph bin i trung bnh l 10.000 vnd cho 1 bnh doner-kebab. Mc li nhun ph hp cho 1 sn phm l 7500vnd Average price of a unit?

2. Thm nh d n u t

2.1. Phng php NPV 2.2. Phng php IRR/MIRR 2.3. Phng php thi gian hon vn

2.1. Phng php NPV (Net Present Value)

NPV Equation
FCF FCF2 FCFn 1 NPV FCF0 ... 2 1 k (1 k) (1 k) n FCFt t t 0 (1 k)
n

Gi tr hin ti rng l: Tng gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin k vng trong tng lai ca d n theo mt li sut chit khu hp l tr khon u t thun ban u ca d n (I) ngha: NPV th hin gi tr tng thm ca khon u t c tnh n yu t gi tr thi gian ca tin t v bao hm c yu t ri ro ca u t.

Pocket Pizza Project Timeline and Cash Flows

Self-Rising Pizza Dough Project Timeline and Cash Flows

Net Present Value

NPV Example
Find the net present value of the example in Exhibit 10.3
$80 $80 $80 $80 $80 $30 P $300 (1.15 ) (1.15 ) (1.15 ) (1.15 ) (1.15 )
B 1 2 3 4 5

$300 $69.57 $60.49 $52.60 $45.74 54.69 $16.91

NPV Example Excel Solution

Net Present Value

2.2. Phng php IIR (Internal Rate of Return)

Internal Rate of Return
T sut hon vn ni b (IRR) l li sut chit khu m ti NPV ca d n bng 0 gii phng trnh NPV = 0 tm c IRR
ngha:

IRR o lng t l hon vn ca mt d n u t v cng c s dng lm tiu chun xem xt d n. IRR chnh l kh nng sinh li ch thc ca bn thn d n.IRR ch thay i khi cc yu t ni ti, tc gi tr cc dng ngn lu thay i. Nh vy khi NPV = 0, khng c ngha l d n khng mang li hiu qu no m l khi NPV=0 th d n mang li cho ng vn ca bn mt sut sinh li bng IRR.

Time Line and Expected Net Cash Flows for the Ford Project

Internal Rate of Return

Calculating the IRR

Calculator Solution
Find the IRR of the cash flows in Exhibit 10.8 using a financial calculator.

Enter

3
N i

-560
PV

240
PMT

0
FV

Answer

13.7

Using Excel - Internal Rate of Return

2.3. Phng php MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return)

MIRR l t sut sinh li d kin ca mt d n vi gi nh l cc dng tin to ra trong cc nm ca d n c ti u t vi chi ph bng chi ph s dng vn ca doanh nghip.

MIRR Equation nghaPV :

TV (1 MIRR ) (10.5)

Pr oject Cost

MIRR khc phc nhc im ca IRR l gi nh cc dng tin c ti u t vi chi ph bng chnh t l IRR. ph hp vi mc tiu ca ch s hu Tiu ch thm nh d n theo MIRR ging IRR

Modified Internal Rate of Return

MIRR Example
A project costs $1,200.00 and will generate net cash inflows of $400 for four years. Calculate the MIRR of the project.
continued on next slide

Modified Internal Rate of Return

MIRR Example
TV $400(1 .08 ) $400(1 .08 ) $400(1 .08 ) $400(1 .08 )
3 2 1 n 0

$1,802.44 $1,802.44 $1,200.00 (1 MIRR )

$1,802.44 (1 MIRR ) $1,200.00

4

1.5020 1 MIRR 1.1071

MIRR 0.1071or 10.71%

IRR versus NPV: A Final Comment

2.3. Phng php thi gian hon vn Payback Period Computing the Payback Period
Thi gian hon vn ca d n l di thi gian thu hi y cc khon u t ban u ca d n.
Remaining cost to recover PB Years before cost recovery (10.2) Cash flow during the year

D n c PP nh hn hoc bng PP gc c chp thun v ngc li.

Payback Period Cash Flows and Calculations

Payback Period

Payback Period Example

Calculate Payback Period

$70,000 - $60,000 PB 2 years $20,000 2 years $10,000 $20,000

2 years 0.5 2.5 years

Payback Period with Various Cash Flow Patterns

Payback Period

Discounted Payback Period: Chit khu tt c cc dng tin nhn trong tng lai v thi im hin ti theo chi ph s dng vn Tnh thi gian b p c ton b khon u t ban u theo gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin

Discounted Payback Period Cash Flows and Calculations

Payback Period

Evaluating the Payback Rule Payback period does not account for differences in the overall risk of projects The biggest weakness of the ordinary and discounted payback methods is their failure to consider cash flows after the payback period

Payback Period

THE END