B GIO DC V O TO

TR NG I HC KI NH T THNH PH H CH MINH
-------o0o-------

L KIM IN

XY DNG CHIN LC PHT TRIN I TU

VN TI XNG DU VIN DNG CA TNG
CNG TY XNG DU VIT NAM N NM 2015

CHUYN NGNH : QUN TR KINH DOANH

M S
: 60.34.05

LUN VN THC S KINH T

NGI H NG DN KHOA HC: PGS.TS. L THANH H

THNH PH H CH MI NH NM 2008

LI CM N
Ti xin chn thnh cm n n Qu thy c Trng i Hc Kinh T
TP.HCM tn tnh ging dy v hng dn cho ti nhiu kin thc qu
bu trong sut thi gian theo hc ti trng.
Xin chn thnh cm n PGS. TS L THANH H ngi tn tnh
hng dn ti thc hin lun vn ny.
Xin chn thnh cm n cc thy c trong hi ng chm lun vn tt
nghip ng gp kin thit thc cho lun vn
Xin chn thnh cm n cc cn b lnh o ang cng tc ti Tng cng
ty xng du Vit Nam, cng ty vn ti xng du Vitaco, cc bn ng
nghip ang cng tc ti cc cng ty vn ti bin, h tr cho ti nhiu
thng tin v kin thit thc trong qu trnh ti thu thp thng tin
hon thnh lun vn ny.

LI CAM OAN
Ti xin cam oan y l cng trnh nghin cu ca ti.
Cc s liu, kt qu nghin cu trong lun vn ny l trung thc, ni dung ca
lun vn ny cha tng c ai cng b trong bt k cng trnh no.
L KIM IN

LI M U
1. S cn thit ca ti
Hot ng vn ti v phn phi hng ho l mt phn trong qu trnh sn xut
hng ho, l mt qu trnh khng th thiu c thc y nn sn xut hng
ho ca mt quc gia pht trin. Lch s khng nh rng hot ng vn ti
lu thng hng ho xut pht t nhu cu phc v li ch cho con ngi, ng
thi gn lin vi s pht trin ca nhn loi. Qua cc giai on lch s, trong
tng iu kin x hi, iu kin kinh t, trnh t chc sn xut, quan h sn
xuthot ng vn ti c nhng hnh thi qui m phng thc sn xut khc
nhau.
Ngnh vn ti bin th gii v vn ti bin Vit Nam cng khng nm ngoi
quy lut . Vi d in tch i dng chim 75% din tch b mt hnh tinh, t
thu xa xa con ngi lun tm cch chinh phc n phc v cho mc ch
ca mnh. Ngy nay, bn cnh nhng hnh thc vn ti hng khng, ng b
nh my bay, t, tu ho th vn ti bin lun gi vai tr quan trng trong
ngnh vn ti. Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin th 150 ca t chc thng mi
th gii WTO, ng thi cng l thnh vin ca nhiu t chc quc t khc nh
AFTA, APEC, th b in gii gia cc quc gia ch mang hnh thc a l, vic lu
thng hng ho gia cc quc gia s tr nn thng xuyn hn. Lc ny cc
doanh nghip khng nhng phi cnh tranh vi cc doanh nghip trong nc m
cn phi cnh tranh vi cc doanh nghip ca cc nc khc u t vo. V vy
ngay t by gi cc doanh nghip cn phi nh hng pht trin cho mnh sn
sng cho vic hi nhp v pht trin vi th gii.
Hot ng vn ti bin thng chim t trng cao do nhu cu vn chuyn mt
khi lng hng ho ln, l loi hnh vn ti m khng c loi hnh vn ti no
cnh tranh c vi nhiu u th nh: gi cc vn ti thp, gi tr u t trn
n v vn ti thp, an ton cao, a mt khi lng ln hng ho n tt c

mi ni trn hnh tinh m cc phng tin vn ti khc nu c n c vi chi

ph rt cao.
Ngnh vn ti du th v cc sn phm du bng ng bin chim t trng
ln, nc ta c iu kin t nhin v iu kin a l cc k thun li cho hot
ng vn ti bin ni chung v vn ti xng du bng ng bin ni ring. Vi
trn 3200 km b bin cng vi nhiu cng nc su, cng vi vic xy dng cc
nh my lc du Dung Qut, nh my lc du Nghi Sn, kho cha du ngoi
quan Vn Phong, l c hi cho hot ng vn ti bin ni chung v vn ti xng
du ni ring pht trin.
Xut pht t nhu cu pht trin ngnh vn ti xng du Vit Nam lm
nn tng cho vic pht trin nn kinh t mt cch bn vng, gi vng c th
phn trong nc, nng lc cnh tranh vi cc hng tu vn ti xng du trong
khu vc v th gii ang hot ng th trng Vit Nam trong thi k m ca,
tc gi mnh dn chn ti XY DNG CHIN LC PHT TRIN
I TU VN TI XNG DU VIN DNG CA TNG CNG TY
XNG DU VIT NAM N NM 2015 lm ti lun vn tt nghip cho
mnh.
2. Mc tiu nghin cu
- Phn tch nhu cu tiu th xng du, nng lc vn ti trong nc v ngoi
nc, nng lc p ng ca cc cng ty vn ti hin hu, phn tch kh nng
pht trin i tu ca tng cng ty thng qua cc chin lc.
- xut cc chin lc pht trin i tu vn ti xng du vin dng
nhm pht trin tng cng ty mt cch bn vng trong giai on hi nhp vi
th gii.
- thc hin cc chnh sch, ch trng ca nh nc v vic pht trin
ngnh ng bin, gp phn hon thnh chin lc kinh doanh ca tng cng
ty, hng ti th trng trong khu vc v th gii kin ngh vi chnh ph v
cc chnh sch nhm m bo thc hin cc chin lc pht trin ngnh vn

ti ng bin ni chung, ngnh vn ti xng du bng ng bin ni ring

ca Vit Nam, to ra mi trng kinh doanh thun li trong tng lai.
3. i tng v phm vi nghin cu
3.1 i tng nghin cu
Nghin cu nhu cu tiu th xng du v nng lc vn ti xng du trong
nc ca cc cng ty vn ti xng du ng bin hin hu, nng lc vn ti
xng du bng ng bin ca tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam.
3.2 Phm vi nghin cu
Do vic u t pht trin tu vn ti xng du ti Vit Nam tri qua nhiu
thi k lch s, pht trin kinh t, vi nhiu h thng chnh sch khc nhau,
rt kh cho kt qu nghin cu c tnh nht qun, nhm m bo tnh hiu
qu, thit thc ca ti nn tc gi ch gii hn thu thp s liu nghin cu
t nm 1996 cho n nay, tp trung cho hot ng vn ti t nm 20052007.
Phm vi nghin cu thng qua cc ngun thng tin th cp l cc ngun
thng k ca tng cng ty, ngun thng tin s cp v nhu cu vn ti xng
du trong nc v khu vc, thng qua bng cu hi ly kin cc chuyn
gia trong ngnh nhm phn loi tm quan trng cc yu t trong cc ma trn,
phn loi mc phn ng ca doanh nghip i vi cc yu t, t
ti s nghin cu vic pht trin i tu vn ti xng du trong tng lai
thng qua cc chin lc.
4. Phng php nghin cu
Vic nghin cu ca tc gi da trn cc ti liu hng dn qun tr chin
lc kinh doanh, ti liu d bo nhu cu vn ti xng du quc t m tc gi
thu thp trn Internet, cng nh ngun d bo mc tiu th xng du trong
nhng nm va qua, hin ti v tng lai ca Vit Nam, ly kin ca cc
chuyn gia l cc cn b hot ng trong cc lnh vc v tu du, tu bin
ch hng ri, hng container, tu gas ti cc cng ty ca Vit Nam.
Nhm nghin cu cc vn cho kt qu mt cch chnh xc v hiu qu khi
p dng vo thc t tc gi s dng mt s phng php nghin cu sau:

4.1 Phng php chuyn gia

Tham kho kin cc chuyn gia trong ngnh vn ti xng du, ngnh
vn ti hng ri, ngnh vn ti hng container bng ng bin ti Vit Nam.
4.2 Phng php nghin cu ti bn
Cc thng tin th cp c thu thp v s dng ch yu t cc ngun
thng k ca tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam. Ngun thng tin ni b t cc
bo co hot ng vn ti ca cng ty t nm 1996 cho n nay...
5. Kt cu ti
ti gm 3 chng:
-

Chng 1. Mt s vn l lun lin quan n chin lc v xy

dng chin lc ca mt cng ty

Chng 2. Xy dng chin lc pht trin i tu vn ti xng

du ca tng cng ty n nm 2015

Chng 3. Cc gii php thc hin chin lc pht trin i tu

vn ti xng du n nm 2015

Mc d, ht sc n lc c gng nghin cu thc hin hin ti ny, nhng

do y l mt ti mi, s liu phi thu thp t nhiu ngnh, nhiu ngun
khc nhau, nhng quan trng hn c l s liu khng c cng b cng khai,
nn chc rng lun vn cn nhiu khim khuyt, mong c thy hng dn,
cc thy c trong hi ng chm lun vn, cc bn c chn thnh gp
lun vn ny c hon thin hn.
Xin trn trng cm n.
Ngi thc hin ti

MC LC
CHNG 1. MT S VN L LUN LIN QUAN N CHIN LC
V XY DNG CHIN LC CA MT CNG TY-------------------------

1.1. Khi nim v chin lc v qun tr chin lc------------------------

1.1.1.

Khi nim v chin lc-------------------------------------------

1.1.2.

Khi nim v qun tr chin lc-------------------------------

1.1.3.

Li ch ca qun tr chin lc----------------------------------

1.2. Cc loi chin lc------------------------------------------------------------

1.2.1.

Chin lc cp cng ty--------------------------------------------

1.2.2.

Chin lc cp kinh doanh (SBU)------------------------------

1.2.3.

Chin lc cp chc nng----------------------------------------

1.3. Cc yu t nh hng n xy dng chin lc------------------------

1.3.1.

nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi ca t chc -------------------

1.3.1.1.Mi trng v m------------------------------------------

1.3.1.2.Mi trng vi m------------------------------------------

nh gi tnh hnh bn trong ca t chc---------------------

1.4. Cng c xy dng chin lc----------------------------------------------

1.3.2.
1.4.1.

Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi------------------------- 10
(EFE matrix_ External Factor Evaluation matrix )

1.4.2.

Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn trong ------------------------

11

(IFE matrix_ Internal Evaluation matrix)

1.4.3.

Ma Trn hnh nh cnh tranh-----------------------------------

12

1.4.4.

Ma trn SWOT-----------------------------------------------------

12

1.4.5.

Ma trn QSPM-----------------------------------------------------

14

1.5 Tm tt chng 1-------------------------------------------------------------

15

CHNG 2. XY DNG CHIN LC PHT TRIN I TU VN TI

XNG DU CA TNG CNG TY N NM 2015--------------------------

16

2.1 Gii thiu khi qut v tng cng ty--------------------------------------

16

2.1.1. S b my t chc ca tng cng ty--------------------------- 17

2.1.2. Kt qa hot ng kinh doanh nm 2007 ca tng cng ty-

17

2.1.2.1. Nhp khu---------------------------------------------------

17

2.1.2.2. Xut bn-----------------------------------------------------

18

2.1.2.3. Kt qu v ti chnh---------------------------------------

18

2.2. Gii thiu khi qut v th trng vn ti xng du------------------- 19

2.2.1 Th trng vn ti xng du quc t n nm 2015-----------

19

2.2.2. Th trng vn ti xng du Vit Nam n nm 2015--------

25

2.2.2.1. D bo tiu th xng du ca VN n 2015---------- 26

2.2.2.2. Tnh hnh nhp khu xng du ca VN trong giai
on 2000 n nm 2007---------------------------------

27

2.3. Cc yu t nh hng n chin lc pht trin i tu cng ty---- 28

2.3.1. D bo tc ng ca cc nh my lc du n hot ng nhp
khu du ca cng ty n 2015-----------------------------------

28

2.3.2. D bo tc ng kho ngoi quan Vn Phong n vic pht trin

i tu-------------------------------------------------------------------

33

2.3.3. D bo tc ng vic u t i tu vin dng i vi i tu

hin hu ca cng ty-----------------------------------------------

35

2.4. Phn tch cc yu t mi trng nh hng n hot ng ca cng

ty--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36
2.4.1 Mi trng v m-----------------------------------------------------

36

2.4.2. Mi trng vi m-----------------------------------------------------

40

2.4.3. Cc c hi v nguy c ca cng ty--------------------------------

44

2.5. Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi ca cng ty (EFE)-----------

48

2.6. Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn trong ca cng ty (IFE)------------

50

2.7. Ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh ca cng ty-------------------------------

52

2.8. Ma trn SWOT ---------------------------------------------------------------

53

2.9. Ma trn QSPM----------------------------------------------------------------

55

2.10. lch gia gi thu v gi cc vn ti khi pht trin i tu---

63

2.10.1. Chi ph qun l v khai thc------------------------------------- 70

2.10.2. T sut ni hon (IRR)-------------------------------------------

70

2.10.3. Thi gian hon vn------------------------------------------------

71

2.10.4. So snh chi ph vn vi gi cho thu tu trn----------------

71

2.10.5

So snh tng chi ph qun l v vn ph vi gi thu

nh hn-------------------------------------------------------------

71

2.10.6. Chi ph vn ti trung bnh---------------------------------------

71

2.11.

73

Tm tt chng 2--------------------------------------------------

CHNG 3. CC GII PHP THC HIN CHIN LC PHT TRIN

I TU VN TI XNG DU N NM 2015--------------------------------

74

3.1. Phng n u t-------------------------------------------------------------

74

3.2. Cc gii php thc hin chin lc pht trin i tu----------------

74

3.2.1.

Chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n mua tu

a nng---------------------------------------------------------------

3.2.2.

74

Chin lc tng cng cng tc marketing v pht trin

thng hiu---------------------------------------------------------

78

Chin lc ti cu trc li c cu t chc---------------------

79

3.3. Kin ngh -----------------------------------------------------------------------

81

3.2.3.
3.3.1.

i vi nh nc---------------------------------------------------- 81

3.3.2.

i vi cng ty------------------------------------------------------

82

3.4. Tm tt chng 3-------------------------------------------------------------

83

KT LUN---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

84

TI LIU THAM KHO

PH LC

DANH MC BNG BIU

Bng 2.1

Tc tng trng kinh t v nhu c u tiu th xng du Vit Nam giai

on 19962007------------------------------------------------------------------ 26

Bng 2.2. Bng tng lng xng du Vit nam nhp khu v sn lng do tng
cng ty nhp t 2000 2007--------------------------------------------------- 28
Bng 2.3. Bng d bo nng lc 2 nh my lc du (Dung Qut v Nghi Sn) khi
hot ng ht cng sut-------------------------------------------------------- 30
Bng 2.4. Bng d bo nhu cu nhp khu xng du ca Vit Nam v sn lng
xng du do tng cng ty nhp n 2015----------------------------------- 31
Bng 2.5. Bng d bo lng DO do tng cng ty nhp khu n nm 2015--- 31
Bng 2.6. Bng gi th p th gii t 4/2007 n 6/2008-------------------------------- 46
Bng 2.7. Nng lc ng tu du ca mt s nc trn th gii n 2009------- 47
Bng 2.8. Ma tr n nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi (EFE) ca tng cng ty------- 48
Bng 2.9. Ma tr n nh gi cc yu t bn tr ong (IFE) ca tng cng ty-------- 50
Bng 2.10. Ma tr n hnh nh cnh tranh ca tng cng ty--------------------------- 52
Bng 2.11. Ma tr n SWOT ca tng cng ty--------------------------------------------- 53
Bng 2.12. Ma tr n QSPM (Nhm S+O)-------------------------------------------------- 55
Bng 2.13. Ma tr n QSPM (Nhm S+T)-------------------------------------------------- 57
Bng 2.14. Ma tr n QSPM (Nhm W +O)------------------------------------------------ 59
Bng 2.15. Ma tr n QSPM (Nhm W +T)------------------------------------------------- 61
Bng 2.16. Mc gi thu tr n tu Aframax---------------------------------------------- 64
Bng 2.17. Mc gi thu nh hn tu Aframax---------------------------------------- 64
Bng 2.18. n gi nhin liu chy my giai on 2001 2007---------------------- 65

Bng 2.19. Bng tng hp n gi chi ph qun l v khai thc tu Aframax---- 68

Bng 2.20. Cng thc tnh cc ch s kinh t qun l v khai thc----------------- 69
Bng 2.21. D tnh chi ph khai thc------------------------------------------------------- 72
Bng 2.22. Bng tnh chi ph vn ti = chi ph khai thc+chi ph thu tu--------- 72

DANH MC HNH NH
Hnh 1.1. Cc yu t bn ngoi nh hng n t chc------------------------- 4

Hnh 2.1. Biu mc tng trng kinh t trung bnh hng nm cc khu
vc kinh t ln--------------------------------------------------------------- 20
Hnh 2.2. D bo tnh hnh s dng nng lng trn th gii n 2025------ 21
Hnh 2.3. Bng d bo nhu cu nng lng th gii t nm 2007 2015---- 21
Hnh 2.4. Biu d bo mc tiu th du th gii theo ngnh kinh t giai
on t 2003 2030--------------------------------------------------------- 22
Hnh 2.5. Biu d bo i tu du th gii c 55.000 120.000 DWT n
nm 2010---------------------------------------------------------------------- 23
Hnh 2.6. S 1s tuyn chnh vn ti du th trn th gii nm 2005---- 24
Hnh 2.7. Biu tng hp v d bo gi thu tu du tu c 55.000120.000
DWT giai on 2000 2012----------------------------------------------- 24
Hnh 2.8. Kho xng du ngoi quan Vn phong----------------------------------- 34
Hnh 2.9. Biu k hoch thay th i tu du trn Th gii t
1991-2010---------------------------------------------------------------------- 45
Hnh 2.10. Biu k hoch thanh thi tu du v n n 2015---------------45

DANH MC CC T VIT TT
1/ AFRAMAX

Average freight rate Assessment

80.001dwt - 120.000dwt

2/ BARREL

n v o lng du =159 litres

42 US gallons

3/ CF

Cost Freight - Phng thc giao nhn ngoi thng

4/ CIF

Cost insurance freight - Phng thc giao nhn ngoi thng

5/ DH (Double hull) Double side, double bottom - Thn tu v kp, y i

6/ DWT

Dead weight tonne - o lng sc cha ca tu vt=tn

7/ EIA

Energy information admin istration - C quan thng tin nng lng

8/ FOB

Free on Board - Phng thc giao nhn ngoi thng

9/ HANDYMAX

30.001dwt -50.000dwt

10/ IEA

International energy agency - T chc nng lng th gii

11/ IMO

International marit ime organization - T chc hng hi quc t

12/ LR1

Long range one - 50.000 dwt - 80.000 dwt

13/ LR2

Long range two - 80.000 dwt - 120.000 dwt

14/ MARPOL

Marine policy - Chnh sch v hng hi

15/ MEPC

Marine environment protection committee - T chc bo v

mi trng bin

16/ METRIC TON 1000 kg = 7,1 barrels

17/ OPEC

Organization of petroleum exporting countries - T chc cc

quc gia xut khu du m

18/ P&I insurance Protection and indemnity - Bo him trch nhim ch tu

19/ SH (Single hull) Single side, single bottom - Thn tu v n, y n
20/ SHIP-BROKER Cng ty mi gii mua bn tu bin

CHNG 1. MT S VN L LUN LIN QUAN N CHIN LC

V XY DNG CHIN LC CA MT CNG TY
1.1.

Khi nim v chin lc v qun tr chin lc

1.1.1 Khi nim v chin lc

Thut ng chin lc xut pht t lnh vc qun s vi ngha ch ra cc
k hoch ln v di hn trn c s chc chn rng ci g i phng c th lm
c, ci g i phng khng th lm c. T thut ng chin lc kinh
doanh ra i, theo quan im truyn thng chin lc l vic xc nh nhng mc
tiu c bn di hn ca mt t chc t a ra cc chng trnh hnh ng c
th cng vi vic s dng cc ngun lc mt cch hp l t c cc mc tiu
ra.
Theo Alfred Chandler(1): Chin lc bao gm nhng mc tiu c bn di
hn ca mt t chc, ng thi la chn cch thc hoc tin trnh hnh ng, phn
b ngun lc thit yu thc hin cc mc tiu .
Theo William J. Glueck(2): Chin lc l mt k hoch mang tnh thng
nht, tnh ton din v tnh phi hp, c thit k m bo rng cc mc tiu c
bn ca t chc s c thc hin.
Theo Fred R. David (3): Chin lc l nhng phng tin t ti nhng mc
tiu di hn. Chin lc kinh doanh c th gm c s pht trin v a l, a dng
ha hot ng, s hu ha, pht trin sn phm, thm nhp th trng, ct gim chi
tiu, thanh l v lin doanh .
Theo Michael E. Porter(4): Chin lc l ngh thut xy dng cc li th
cnh tranh vng chc phng th.

(1) (2) (4)

Nguyn Khoa Khi v ng Th Thanh Phng (2007), Qun tr chin lc, nh xut bn thng k,
trang 4.
(3)

Fred David (2006), Bn dch khi lun v qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn thng k, trang 20.

1.1.2. Khi nim v qun tr chin lc

Theo Alfred Chander(4): Qun tr chin lc l tin trnh xc nh cc mc
tiu c bn di hn ca t chc, la chn cch thc hoc phng hng hnh ng
v phn b ti nguyn thit yu thc hin cc mc tiu .
Theo Fred R. David (5): Qun tr chin lc c th c nh ngha nh l
mt ngh thut v khoa hc thit lp, thc hin v nh gi cc quyt nh lin quan
nhiu chc nng cho php mt t chc t c nhng mc tiu ra.
Theo John Pearce II v Richard B. Robinson (6): Qun tr chin lc l mt
h cc quyt nh v hnh ng hnh thnh v thc hin cc k hoch nhm t
c cc mc tiu ca doanh nghip.
1.1.3. Li ch ca qun tr chin lc
Gip cho doanh nghip thy c mc ch v hng i ca mnh la
chn phng hng nhm t c mc tiu ca mnh v cho bit v tr ca doanh
nghip trong qu trnh thc hin mc tiu .
Gip doanh nghip nhn din c c hi v nguy c t mi trng bn
ngoi, cc im mnh, im yu ca ni b doanh nghip hin ti t pht huy
im mnh, gim thiu im yu, nm bt ly c hi v c cc bin php phng
cc e do t bn ngoi.
Gip doanh nghip a ra cc quyt nh kinh doanh ph hp vi mi
trng kinh doanh nhm nng cao hiu qu v nng sut trong sn xut kinh doanh.
Gip doanh nghip la chn li th cnh tranh thch hp trong mi trng
kinh doanh lun thay i, tm ra cch tn ti v tng trng nng cao v th cnh
tranh ca doanh nghip.

(4) (3)

PGS-TS ng Th Thanh Phng, Th.s Nguyn nh Ho, Th.s Trn Th Nhi (2005), Gio trnh
qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn thng k, trang 26.

(5)

Fred David (2006), Bn dch khi lun v qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn thng k, trang 9.

1.2.

Cc loi chin lc
Trong mt t chc, qun tr chin lc c th tin hnh 3 cp c bn: cp

cng ty, cp n v kinh doanh v cp b phn chc nng, tin trnh qun tr chin
lc mi cp c hnh thc ging nhau gm cc giai on c bn: phn tch mi
trng xc nh nhim v v mc tiu, phn tch v la chn chin lc, t chc
thc hin v kim tra chin lc, nhng ni dung tng giai on v ra quyt nh
ph thuc vo nh qun tr l khc nhau.
1.2.1. Chin lc cp cng ty
Chin lc cp cng ty xc nh nhng nh hng ca t chc trong di hn
nhm hon thnh nhim v, t c cc mc tiu tng trng, v d: chin lc
tng trng tp trung (thm nhp th trng, pht trin th trng, pht trin sn
phm mi), chin lc tng trng hi nhp (pha trc, pha sau), chin lc tng
trng a dng ho (ng tm, hng ngang, hn hp), chin lc lin doanh v.v...
Trn c s chin lc cp cng ty, cc t chc s trin khai cc chin lc ring ca
mnh.
1.2.2. Chin lc cp kinh doanh (SBU)
Chin lc cp kinh doanh (SBU _ Strategic Business Unit) trong mt cng
ty c th l mt ngnh kinh doanh hay mt chng loi sn phm v.v...Chin lc
ny nhm nh hng pht trin tng ngnh hay tng chng loi sn phm gp
phn hon thnh chin lc cp cng ty, phi xc nh r li th ca tng ngnh so
vi i th cnh tranh a ra chin lc ph hp vi chin lc cp cng ty, v
d: chin lc to s khc bit, chin lc chi ph thp, chin lc phng th
cng c th trng, chin lc tn cng pht trin th trng. Trong nn kinh t
th trng c s cnh tranh gay gt th chin lc marketing c xem l chin
lc ct li ca cp n v kinh doanh, ng vai tr lin kt vi cc chin lc ca
cc b phn chc nng khc.
1.2.3. Chin lc cp chc nng
Cc cng ty u c cc b phn chc nng nh: marketing, nhn s, ti
chnh, sn xut, nghin cu v pht trin v.v...Cc b phn ny cn c chin lc

h tr thc hin chin lc cp n v kinh doanh v cp cng ty, v d: b phn

marketing c chin lc 4Ps, b phn nhn s c chin lc thu ht ngi ti gii
v cng ty, b phn ti chnh c chin lc gim thiu chi ph, chin lc u t
cho sn phm mi v.vChin lc cp chc nng thng c gi tr trong tng thi
on ca qu trnh thc hin chin lc cp n v kinh doanh v cp cng ty.
Nh vy cc chin lc ca 3 cp c bn ny khng c lp m c mi quan
h chc ch vi nhau, chin lc cp trn l tin cho chin lc cp di, ng
thi chin lc cp di phi thch nghi vi chin lc cp trn th tin trnh thc
hin chin lc mi c kh nng thnh cng v t hiu qu.
1.3.

Cc yu t nh hng n xy dng chin lc

Do c rt nhiu cc khi nim v chin lc v qun tr chin lc, lm nn tng

cho vic phn tch cc yu t mi trng bn ngoi v bn trong doanh nghip, t
lm c s thit lp cc ma trn, tc gi xin chn ly khi nim ca Fred R.
David lm c s xy dng chin lc pht trin i tu vn ti xng du vin
dng ca tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam n nm 2015 vi l do m hnh, cch
phn tch yu t, cch thit lp ma trn v la chn ma trn ph hp vi mi trng
ca tng cng ty.
1.3.1. nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi ca t chc
Hnh 1.1. Cc yu t bn ngoi nh hng n t chc
Mi trng v m
1/nh hng kinh t
2/nh hng vn ha,
x hi, t nhin v
nhn khu.
3/nh hng chnh
tr, lut php v
chnh ph
4/nh hng cng
ngh

Mi trng vi m
1/ Cc i th cnh
tranh
2/ Khch hng
3/ Nh cung cp
4/ Cc i th mi
tim n
5/ Sn phm thay
th

CC C HI V
MI NGUY C
CA T CHC

Mi trng bn ngoi l h thng cc yu t phc tp m nh qun tr khng

kim sot c nhng chng nh hng n hot ng v kt qu kinh doanh ca
doanh nghip, lun c nhiu c hi ln nguy c tc ng n hot ng ca doanh
nghip theo cc mc khc nhau. Vic nh gi cc yu t mi trng bn ngoi
nhm pht hin ra nhng tc nhn quan trng, nh hng tch cc hoc tiu cc i
vi cc hot ng ca doanh nghip, y l bin php quan trng gip nhng nh
qun tr ng x mt cch linh hot v kp thi vi cc tnh hung pht sinh trong
mi trng kinh doanh. Nu khng kim sot mi trng bn ngoi th doanh
nghip khng bit r mnh ang i din vi ci g v s khng th phn ng kp
thi khi cc yu t mi trng bn ngoi thay i.
C th phn chia cc yu t bn ngoi tc ng n doanh nhip lm hai
nhm l mi trng v m v mi trng vi m.
1.3.1.1. Mi trng v m
Mi trng v m gm cc yu t v kinh t, vn ho x hi, a l v nhn
khu, cng ngh, t nhin, nh hng gin tip n hot ng doanh nghip. Kh
nng tc ng tr li ca doanh nghip i vi nhm nhn t ny thp. V th doanh
nghip nn chn mi trng kinh doanh vi cc yu t v m n nh c bit l
vn chnh tr v lut php hn ch ri ro. Ngoi ra doanh nghip cng cn linh
hot thay i chnh sch kinh doanh khi cc yu t v m ny thay i.
Cc yu t kinh t cho ta ci nhn tng quan v sc khe ca nn kinh t,
n nh hng gin tip n hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca doanh nghip ang
hot ng trong nn kinh t , bn nhn t quan trng trong mi trng kinh t v
m cn phi xem xt l: tng trng kinh t, li sut, t gi hi oi, v t l lm
pht.
Tng trng kinh t dn n tng chi tiu, gim p lc cnh tranh, pht
trin th phn, tng doanh thu, tng li nhun, ngc li suy gim kinh t, gim chi
tiu, thu hp sn xut, tng p lc cnh tranh, thu hp th phn.
Mc li sut c th tc ng n nhu cu chi tiu ca khch hng.

T gi hi oi xc nh gi tr ng tin ca cc quc gia vi nhau, s

thay i t gi hi oi nh hng tnh cnh tranh trn th trng quc t.
Lm pht n lm gim tnh n nh ca nn kinh t, nu lm pht tng
th vic lp k hoch u t tr nn mo him v trong mi trng lm pht kh c
th d kin mt cch chnh xc gi tr thc ca d n di hn dn n cc cng ty
khng dm u t, t nn kinh t s b nh tr.
Cc yu t vn ho, x hi, t nhin v nhn khu cn quan tm nh sau:
Nhng bin i v vn ho, x hi c th gy ra kh khn hay to ra
thun li cho cc doanh nghip, tuy rng nhng yu t ny din ra mt cch chm
chp v kh nhn bit nh: cht lng cuc sng ca cng ng, cc chun mc v
o c v phong cch sng, tnh a dng ca lc lng lao ng, trnh vn ho,
ngh nghp ca ngi lao ng, truyn thng vn ho, cc tp tc x hi.
Cc yu t t nhin nh hng rt nhiu n qun tr chin lc, cc
hot ng sn xut, khai thc ti nguyn ca con ngi lm thay i rt nhiu
hon cnh t nhin, n lm cho iu kin t nhin ngy cng tt hn nhng n lm
cho mi trng tr nn xu i rt nhiu. Do i hi cc doanh nghip khng
c lm nhim mi trng, khng lm mt cn bng sinh thi, khng lng ph ti
nguyn thin nhin.
Cc yu t v nhn khu m cc nh qun tr quan tm khi nghin cu
vn x hi nh: quy m dn s v t l tng dn s hng nm, c cu dn s theo
gii tnh, tui, quy m gia nh, thu nhp bnh qun ngi hay h gia nh, vn
di chuyn lao ng, trnh dn tr. N lm nh hng trc tip n lc lng
lao ng, tng th trng v nhiu knh tiu th hng ha, dch v, tc ng n
chin lc ca doanh nghip.
Cc yu t chnh tr, lut php v chnh ph: tnh hnh chnh tr, s n nh
ca ca chnh ph c ngha rt quan trng i vi doanh nghip, do cc nh
qun tr trc khi a ra cc chin lc cng cn phi xem xt cc yu t sau:
S n nh h thng chnh tr, ca cc ng phi n chnh ph.

H thng lut php ni chung, cc lut c lin quan n kinh doanh,

nh lut bo v mi trng, chnh sch thu, bo h mu dch, bo h quyn kinh
doanh hp php, bo h bn quyn, chng c quyn, tha nhn v bnh ng gia
cc thnh phn kinh t.
Chnh sch i ngoi, chnh sch khuyn khch xut khu, khuyn
khch u t nc ngoi.
Quan h vi cc t chc on th, t chc chnh tr, chnh quyn a
phng, chnh ph trung ng.
Yu t cng ngh: ngy cng c nhiu cng ngh mi, tin tin ra i to
ra nhiu c hi v nguy c i ci doanh nghip, cng ngh mi ra i l c hi
doanh nghip nm bt v to ra sn phm mi c sc cnh tranh cao, ng thi
cng l nguy c nu doanh nghip khng kp thi nm bt doanh nghp khc
vn dng. Cng ngh cng hin i n cng lm rt ngn chu k sng ca sn
phm.
1.3.1.2. Mi trng vi m
Mi trng vi m bao gm cc yu t trong ngnh v l cc yu t ngoi
cnh i vi doanh nghip, quyt nh tnh cht v mc cnh tranh trong ngnh
sn xut kinh doanh . C 5 yu t c bn l: i th cnh tranh, khch hng,
nh cung cp, cc i th tim n mi v sn phm thay th. ra chin lc
thnh cng cn phi phn tch tng yu t ch yu , s hiu bit cc yu t ny
gip doanh nghip nhn ra cc mt mnh mt yu ca mnh lin quan n cc c
hi v nguy c m ngnh kinh doanh gp phi.
i th cnh tranh: l nhng doanh nghip kinh doanh nhng mt hng
cng loi vi cng ty, i th cnh tranh s chia x th phn vi cng ty, ng thi
n s vt qua nu li th cnh tranh cao hn, tnh cht cnh tranh trong ngnh tng
hay gim ph thuc vo th trng, tc tng trng, v mc u t ca i
th cnh tranh.

Khch hng: l mt phn ca cng ty, s trung thnh ca khch hng l

mt li th ln ca cng ty, s trung thnh ca khch hng c to dng bi s
tho mn nhng nhu cu ca khch hng v mong mun c phc v tt hn.
Nh cung cp: doanh nghip phi lun lun lin kt vi nh cung cp
c cung cp nhng ngun lc khc nhau nh nguyn vt liu, thit b, nhn cng,
vnCc nh cung cp c th gy p lc trong hot ng ca doanh nghip, cho
nn vic nghin cu hiu bit v nh cung cp cc ngun lc cho doanh nghip
l khng th b qua trong qu trnh nghin cu mi trng.
i th tim n mi: l nhng i th cnh tranh c th s tham gia th
trng trong tng lai v hnh thnh nhng i th cnh tranh mi, t th phn
b chia x, li nhun doanh nghip b gim xung, s xut hin ca i th cnh
tranh mi s nh hng n chin lc kinh doanh ca doanh nghip. V vy phi
phn tch cc i th tim n nh gi nhng nguy c m h to ra cho doanh
nghip.
Sn phm thay th: l nhng sn phm khc v tn gi, khc v thnh
phn nhng em li cho khch hng nhng tin ch tng ng nh sn phm ca
doanh nghip. S xut hin ca nhng sn phm thay th ny c th dn n nguy
c lm gim gi bn v st gim li nhun ca doanh nghip. Do doanh nghip
phi d bo v phn tch khuynh hng pht trin cc sn phm thay th, nhn din
ht cc nguy c m cc sn phm thay th to ra cho doanh nghip.
1.3.2. nh gi tnh hnh bn trong ca t chc
Bt k mt t chc no u c nhng mt mnh v mt yu trong lnh vc
kinh doanh, khng mt t chc no mnh hay yu u nhau mi mt. Nhng im
mnh v im yu bn trong cng vi nhng c hi v nguy c bn ngoi l nhng
im c bn cn quan tm khi thit lp chin lc cho doanh nghip. Vic nh gi
tnh hnh bn trong chnh l vic kim tra li nng lc ca doanh nghip, gip
doanh nghip pht huy nhng im mnh v hn ch nhng im yu.
Vi vic phn tch mi trng ni b ca doanh nghip, cc mt mnh
doanh nghip c th l cc k nng, ngun lc v nhng li th m doanh nghip c

c hn hn cc i th cnh tranh nh c cng ngh hin i, c thng hiu uy

tn, ngun vn di do, doanh nghip c hnh nh tt trong khch hng hay nm th
phn ln trong cc th thng truyn thng. Nhng mt yu ca doanh nghip th
hin nhng thiu st hoc nhc im v ngun nhn lc hay cc yu t hn ch
nng lc cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip, mng li phn phi km hiu qu, quan
h lao ng khng tt, sn phm lc hu so vi cc i th cnh tranh.
Nm r tnh hnh hot ng ca doanh nghip l mc tiu ca vic phn tch
tnh hnh ni b doanh nghip. S phn tch ny da trn ngun lc v kh nng
ca doanh nghip.
Doanh nghip s dng ngun lc ca mnh (nhn hiu sn phm, uy tn,
thng hiu, s hu cng ngh, khch hng truyn thng) mt cch hiu qu
to ra nng lc c bit, vi nng lc c bit ny doanh nghip to ra li th cnh
tranh cho sn phm mnh hay tnh khc bit ca sn phm so vi i th cnh tranh.
1.4.

Cng c xy dng chin lc

Theo Fred R David (7) cc k thut quan trng hnh thnh mt chin lc bao
gm ba giai on, cc cng c c s dng cho quy trnh ny c th p dng c
cho tt c cc quy m v cc loi t chc, n gip cho nh qun tr c th xc nh,
nh gi v la chn cc chin lc, n c th hin qua cc giai on sau:
Giai on 1: Giai on nhp vo bao gm cc ma trn EFE, ma trn IFE, ma
trn hnh nh cnh tranh, giai on ny tm tt cc thng tin c bn c nhp
vo cn thit cho vic hnh thnh chin lc.
Giai on 2: Gi l g iai on kt hp a ra cc chin lc kh thi c th
la chn bng cch sp xp, kt hp cc yu t bn trong, bn ngoi quan trng.
Trong giai on ny chng ta chn mt trong nhng ma trn nh SWOT, BCG, IE,
SPACE, ...trong ti ny tc gi ch s dng ma trn SWOT t kt hp cc
yu t a ra nhng chin lc thch hp.

(7)

Fred David (2006), Bn dch khi lun v qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn thng k, trang 259.

10

Giai on 3: Giai on quyt nh ch bao gm mt k thut l s dng ma

trn hoch nh chin lc c kh nng nh lng QSPM (Quantitative Strategic
Planning Matrix) ma trn ny s dng thng tin nhp vo giai on mt, nh
gi khch quan cc chin lc kh thi c th c la chn giai on 2 t
chn ra chin lc ph hp.
1.4.1. Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi (EFE matrix_ External Factor
Eval uation matrix)
Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi cho php cc nh chin lc tm tt
v nh gi cc thng tin kinh t, x hi, vn ha, nhn khu, a l, chnh tr, chnh
ph, lut php, cng ngh v cnh tranh. C nm bc pht trin mt ma trn
nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi.
Bc 1: Lp danh mc t 10 n 20 yu t c hi v nguy c ch yu c vai
tr quyt nh i vi s thnh cng ca doanh nghip nh nhn din trong qu
trnh kim tra cc yu t t bn ngoi.
Bc 2: Phn loi tm quan trng t 0,0 (khng quan trng) n 1,0 (rt
quan trng) cho mi yu t. S phn loi ny cho thy tm quan trng tng ng
ca yu t i vi s thnh cng trong ngnh kinh doanh ca doanh nghip, tng
s tm quan trng ca tt c cc yu t phi bng 1,0.
Bc 3: Phn loi t 1 n 4 cho tng yu t quyt nh s thnh cng cho
thy cch thc m cc chin lc hin ti ca doanh nghip phn ng i vi cc
yu t ny, trong 4 l phn ng tt, 3 l phn ng trn trung bnh, 2 l phn ng
trung bnh v 1 phn ng t. Cc mc ny da trn hiu qu ca chin lc doanh
nghip. Nh vy s phn loi bc ny da trn quy m doanh nghip, trong khi
s phn loi bc 2 da theo ngnh.
Bc 4: Nhn tm quan trng ca tng yu t i vi loi ca n xc
nh s im v tm quan trng ca tng yu t.
Bc 5: Cng tt c cc s im v tm quan trng cc yu t xc nh
tng s im quan trng ca ma trn cho doanh nghip.

11

Tng s im ca ma trn khng ph thuc vo s lng cc yu t c trong ma

trn, cao nht l 4 im, thp nht l 1 im. Nu tng s im l 4, doanh nghip
phn ng tt vi c hi v nguy c, nu tng s im l 2,5 doanh nghip phn ng
trung bnh vi nhng c hi v nguy c, nu tng s im l 1 doanh nghip phn
ng yu vi nhng c hi v nguy c.
1.4.2. Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn trong (IFE matrix_Internal Factor
Eval uation matrix)
Bc cui cng trong vic phn tch tnh hnh ni b l xy dng ma trn
nh gi cc yu t bn trong (IFE). Cng c hnh thnh chin lc ny tm tt v
nh gi nhng mt mnh v yu quan trng ca cc b phn kinh doanh chc
nng, v n cng cung cp c s xc nh v nh gi mi quan h gia cc b
phn ny. Ma trn IFE c th c pht trin theo 5 bc:
Bc 1: Lp danh mc t 10 n 20 yu t bao gm nhng im mnh v
im yu nh hng ln n s pht trin ca doanh nghip.
Bc 2: n nh tm quan trng t 0,0 (khng quan trng) n 1,0 (quan
trng nht) cho mi yu t. Tm quan trng c n nh cho mi yu t nht nh
cho thy tm quan trng tng i ca yu t i vi s thnh cng ca doanh
nghip trong ngnh. Khng k yu t ch yu l im mnh hay l im yu bn
trong, cc yu t c xem l c nh hng ln nht i vi thnh qu hot ng
ca t chc phi c cho l c tm quan trng nht. Tng cng ca tt c cc mc
quan trng ny phi bng 1,0.
Bc 3: Phn loi t 1 n 4 cho mi yu t s biu th yu t c i din
cho im yu ln nht (phn loi bng 1), im yu nh nht (phn loi bng 2),
im mnh nh nht (phn loi bng 3), im mnh ln nht (phn loi bng 4).
Nh vy s phn loi ny da trn c s doanh nghip, trong khi mc quan
trng bc 2 da trn c s ngnh.
Bc 4: Nhn mi mc quan trng ca tng yu t vi loi ca n
xc nh s im quan trng ca tng yu t.

12

Bc 5: Cng tt c s im quan trng ca tt c cc yu t xc nh

tng s im quan trng ca ma trn.
Tng s im ca ma trn nm trong khong t 1 im n 4 im, s khng ph
thuc vo s lng cc yu t trong ma trn. Nu tng s im di 2,5 im doanh
nghip yu v ni b, nu tng s im trn 2,5 im doanh nghip mnh v ni b.
1.4.3. Ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh
Ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh so snh gia cc doanh nghip vi cc i th
cnh tranh ch yu da trn cc yu t nh hng n cc kh nng cnh tranh ca
cc doanh nghip trong ngnh, qua gip nh qun tr chin lc nhn din nhng
im mnh, im yu ca doanh nghip cng nhng im mnh, im yu ca cc
i th cnh tranh, xc nh li th cnh tranh cho doanh nghip v cc im yu
m doanh nghip cn khc phc. xy dng ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh cn thc
hin 5 bc sau:
Bc 1: Lp danh mc khong 10 yu t c nh hng quan trng n kh
nng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh.
Bc 2: Phn loi tm quan trng t 0,0 (khng quan trng) n 1,0 (rt
quan trng) cho mi yu t. S phn loi ny cho thy tm quan trng tng ng
ca mi yu t ty thuc vo mc nh hng ca yu t, n kh nng cnh
tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh, tng s tm quan trng ca tt c cc yu
t phi bng 1,0.
Bc 3: Xc nh trng s t 1 n 4 cho tng yu t, trng s ca mi yu
t tu thuc vo kh nng ca doanh nghip i vi yu t, trong 4 l tt, 3 l
trn trung bnh, 2 l trung bnh v 1 l yu.
Bc 4: Nhn tm quan trng ca tng yu t vi trng s ca n xc
nh s im ca cc yu t.
Bc 5: Cng s im ca tt c cc yu t xc nh tng s im ca ma
trn.
So snh tng s im ca doanh nghip vi cc i th cnh tranh ch yu trong
ngnh nh gi kh nng cnh tranh ca doanh nghip.

13

1.4.4. Ma trn SWOT

Ma trn SWOT c s dng lit k tt c cc c hi, cc nguy c, cc
im mnh v cc im yu trong ni b doanh nghip, theo th t v v tr thch
hp. Cn c vo mi quan h gia cc yu t, cc nh phn tch s tin hnh la
chn nhng gii php chin lc ph hp thng qua nhng kt hp: im mnh_c
hi (S_O), im mnh_nguy c (S_T), im yu_nguy c (W_T), im yu_c hi
(W_O). Tu theo lnh vc kinh doanh ca doanh ngip m nh qun tr s s dng
mt hoc nhiu ma trn SWOT tin hnh phn tch v la chn gii php.
M hnh SWOT thng a ra 4 nhm chin lc c bn:
S_O: Cc chin lc ny da trn im mnh ca doanh nghip khai thc
cc c hi bn ngoi.
S_T: Cc chin lc ny da trn im mnh ca doanh nghip ngn
chn hoc hn ch cc nguy c t bn ngoi.
W_O: Cc chin lc ny gim im yu bn trong ni b tn dng cc
c hi t bn ngoi.
W_T: Cc chin lc ny gim im yu bn trong ni b ngn chn
hoc hn ch cc nguy c bn ngoi.
Cc chin lc gia khng bao gi xem xt tt c cc chin lc kh thi c li
cho cng ty v c v s bin php kh thi v v s cch thc hin cc bin php
ny. Do ch mt nhm chin lc hp dn nht c la chn pht trin.
lp c mt ma trn SWOT, theo FERD R DA VID( 8) phi tri qua tm bc
sau y:
1) Lit k cc c hi bn ngoi ca cng ty.
2) Lit k cc m i e do quan trng bn ngoi cng ty.
3) Lit k cc im mnh ch yu bn trong cng ty.
4) Lit k nhng im yu bn trong cng ty.
5) Kt hp im mnh bn trong vi c hi bn ngoi, ghi kt qu chin lc
S_O vo thch hp.
(8)

Fred David (2006), Bn dch khi lun v qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn thng k, trang 266

14

6) Kt hp nhng im yu bn trong vi nhng c hi bn ngoi, ghi kt

qu chin lc W_O vo thch hp.
7) Kt hp nhng im mnh bn trong vi mi e da bn ngoi, ghi kt
qu chin lc S_T vo thch hp.
8) Kt hp nhng im yu bn trong vi nguy c bn ngoi, ghi kt qu
chin lc W_T vo thch hp.
1.4.5 Ma trn QSPM
Ma trn QSPM l loi cng c dng nh lng li cc thng tin c
phn tch cc giai on u t cho php nh qun tr la chn c chin lc
ti u, ma trn QSPM theo Ferd R David ( 9) gm c 6 bc cn bn sau:
Bc 1: Lit k cc c hi/ mi e do ln t bn ngoi v cc im yu/
im mnh quan trng bn trong doanh nghip.
Bc 2: Phn loi cho mi yu t thnh cng quan trng bn trong v bn
ngoi, s phn loi ny ging nh trong ma trn EFE, ma trn IFE.
Bc 3: Xc nh cc chin lc c th thay th m doanh nghip nn xem
xt thc hin.
Bc 4: Xc nh s im hp dn theo tng chin lc. S im hp dn
biu th tnh hp dn tng i ca mi chin lc so vi cc chin lc khc,
thang im nh gi t 1 n 4: 1 l khng hp dn, 2 l hi hp dn, 3 l kh hp
dn, 4 l rt hp dn.
Bc 5: Tnh tng s im hp dn, y l kt qu ca vic nhn s im
phn loi (bc 2) vi s im hp dn (bc 4) trong mi hng. Tng s im hp
dn cng cao th chin lc cng hp dn.
Bc 6: Cng cc s im hp dn. l php cng ca tng s im hp
dn trong ct chin lc ca ma trn QSPM. Mc chnh lch gia cng tng s
im hp dn trong mt nhm chin lc th s im cng cao biu th chin lc
cng hp dn.

(9)

Fred David (2006), Bn dch khi lun v qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn thng k, trang 289

15

1.5 Tm tt chng 1
Trong nn kinh t ca t nc hin nay ang hi nhp vi nn kinh t th
gii, vic cnh tranh ngy cng gay gt, s thnh cng hay tht bi i vi doanh
nghip ph thuc vo vic xy dng cc chin lc ca doanh nghip v cc chin
lc ny c thc hin t hiu qu hay khng tu thuc vo nng lc qun tr
chin lc ca cc nh qun tr trong doanh nghip.
Nh qun tr nu khng hiu r v nm vng cc nguyn tt c bn qu trnh
xy dng chin lc v thc thi chin lc nh c trnh by chng 1 th
kh c th thit lp c mt chin lc ph hp cho doanh nghip v qun tr vic
thc thi chin lc mt cch tt nht.
Nhm nghin cu cc vn cho kt qu mt cch chnh xc, c hiu qu khi
p dng vo thc t ti s dng mt s phng php nghin cu sau:
Phng php nghin cu ti bn: cc thng tin th cp c thu thp v s
dng ch yu t cc ngun thng k ca tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam. Ngun
thng tin ni b t cc bo co hot ng vn ti ca tng cng ty t nm 1996 cho
n nay.
Phng php tham kho kin cc chuyn gia trong ngnh vn ti xng du,
ngnh vn ti hng ri, ngnh vn ti hng container bng ng bin ti Vit
Nam. bng bng cu hi chi tit lm d liu xy dng cc ma trn chin lc, t
xc nh cc chin lc ti u, qun l d liu Exel, kim nh d liu Eview.
T trong chng 2 s phn tch nhu cu tiu th xng du trong nc, nhu
cu vn ti trong nc, nng lc p ng ca cc cng ty vn ti hin hu, phn
tch kh nng pht trin i tu ca tng cng ty thng qua cc chin lc. t
xut cc gii php thc hin chin lc.

16

CHNG 2. XY DNG CHIN LC PHT TRIN I TU VN TI

XNG DU CA TNG CNG TY N NM 2015
2.1

Gii thiu khi qut v tng cng ty

Tng cng ty (Tcty) xng du Vit Nam l t chc kinh doanh thng mi

xng du v cc sn phm ha du ln nht Vit Nam.

Tcty xng du Vit Nam hin c 43 cng ty thnh vin, 25 chi nhnh v 09
x nghip trc thuc cc cng ty thnh vin 100% vn nh nc, c 20 cng ty c
phn c vn gp chi phi ca Tcty; C 03 cng ty lin doanh vi nc ngoi. Ngoi
ra, Tcty xng du Vit Nam c 01 Ch i nhnh ti Singapore. Tcty c h thng c s
vt cht k thut hin i phc v cho vic kinh doanh xng du v cc sn phm
ha du. Mi hot ng qun l, iu hnh kinh doanh trong ni b ngnh u c
thc hin thng qua h thng mng ni b Petronet kt hp vi mng Internet.
Ngoi trung tm ha nghim ca ton Tcty t ti s 1 Khm Thin, H Ni, Tcty
cn c cc phng ha nghim hin i t ti cc kho xng du, cc cng kim
tra cht lng xng du, cc sn phm ha du t khi nhp khu n khi bn cho
khch hng theo ng tiu chun quc gia v quc t.
Hng nm Tcty u t hng trm t ng vo cc chng trnh u t pht
trin m rng v hin i ha c s vt cht k thut, to ra nng lc sn xut mi
v kh nng cnh tranh, u t vo cc cng trnh trng im to iu kin nng cao
hiu qu kinh doanh nh: mua thm tu vin dng ch du, ch gas, nng cp v
xy dng h thng cu cng, u t mi v m rng ci to h thng kho xng du,
nng cp tuyn ng cc kho cha du, pht trin thm ca hng xng du v ca
hng kinh doanh du m nhn, gas ho lng,
Tcty u t i tu vin dng c loi 20.000DWT-30.000DWT, trong
tu Petrolimex 06, 08, 09, 10 l nhng con tu ch sn phm du v kp u tin
ca Vit Nam, t ng ha cao, tr v ph hp lu di vi cng c quc t. Ngoi
ra Tcty m thm ngnh ngh kinh doanh bt ng sn, ang thc hin d n khu
th Anh Dng VII ti Hi Phng, vi tng din tch 17 hcta. D n cng ha
du v cng container ti nh V Hi Phng c Th tng chnh ph ph

17

duyt quy hoch chi tit nhm cng I khu vc pha Bc vi tng din tch ca d n
xp x 41 hcta bao gm: 2 bn container v 1 cng du cng h thng kho bi.
Tng gi tr u t nm 2007 l 619 t ng t 83% k hoch v tng 4%
so vi gi tr thc hin cng k nm trc, xy dng mi 89 ca hng xng du, ci
to li 75 ca hng xng du c, ci to li 50.000 m3 b cha ti tng kho xng du
Nh B, tp trung trin khai chin lc pht trin i tu vin dng Aframax.
Tcty cng vi cng ty c phn bo him Petrolimex (Pjico) v cng ty PB
Tankes limited ca Singapore gp vn t 1 l 100 triu USD, lin doanh xy dng
kho cha xng du ngoi quan ln ti vnh Vn Phong tnh Khnh Ho. Trong
Tcty gp 55% vn, Pjico gp 15% vn v PB Tankes Limited gp 30% vn. L
khi cng xy dng thc hin vo ngy 09/12/2007.
Tcty lun ch trng tm hng pht trin mi, m rng loi hnh kinh
doanh v lnh vc kinh doanh. Tcty ang bc u th sc trong kinh doanh kho
xng du ngoi quan, kinh doanh bt ng sn, kinh doanh trong lnh vc ti chnh
ngn hng, tham gia th trng chng khon, v.v
2.1.1. S b my t chc ca tng cng ty
C cu t chc ca Tcty c b tr theo loi c cu t chc trc tuyn chc
nng (xem ph lc) ngoi nhng u im ca c cu trc tuyn v c cu chc
nng n cn to iu kin cho i ng lnh o tr pht huy nng lc, pht huy
kh nng nhn s trong Tcty. Tuy nhin vi c cu ny n cng s c nhng
nhc im nh trch nhim khng r rng, xy ra nhiu tranh ci v.v, cn
phi c cc gii php c th khc phc hin tng ny.
2.1.2. Kt qa hot ng kinh doanh nm 2007
2.1.2.1. Nhp khu
Tng sn lng xng du nhp khu (bao gm c chuyn khu)
8.504.000m3 , tn tng 9%, kim ngch 4,331 t USD tng 21% so vi nm 2006.
Sn lng nhp khu cho th trng ni a 7.405.000 m3 , tn t 100% k hoch
b giao.

18

T trng nhp khu theo phng thc FOB l 72% v nhp theo phng
thc CF/ CIF l 28%. T chc chuyn ti 8 chuyn tu m ti Vn Phong vi tng
sn lng t 860.000m3 chim 18,6% tng nhp diesel, tng 33%so vi nm 2006.
C cu nhp khu v cc cng: Nh B 42,8%, Hn Gai 33,3%, Nha Trang 10,3%,
Nng 8,8%, Cn Th 3,6%, Nghi Hng, Quy Nhn 1,2%.
2.1.2.2. Xut bn
Tng sn lng xut bn (bao gm c chuyn khu) 8.261.000 m3 , tn tng
7% so vi nm 2006, trong xut bn ni a 7.022.000 m3 , tn t 100% k
hoch tng 6,1% so vi thc hin nm 2006.
Th trng ni a:
Xng t 2,462 triu m3 , tn t 104% k hoch, tng 12% so vi
cng k.
Diesel 3,334 triu m3 , tn t 101% k hoch, tng 6% so vi cng k.
Mazut 1,096 triu m3 , tn t 93% k hoch, gim 4% so vi cng k.
Du ho 130.000 m3 , tn t 93% k hoch, gim 7% so vi cng k.
Th trng ti xut chuyn khu 1.239.000m3 , tn trong ti xut
919.000m3 , tn.
2.1.2.3. Kt qu v ti chnh
Tng doanh thu 69.506 t ng tng 21% so vi cng k trong :
Doanh thu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh 68.106 t ng t 112%
so vi cng k.
Doanh thu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh khc v dch v: 1400 t
ng t 108% k hoch, tng 7% so vi cng k.
Np ngn sch nh nc 12.553 t ng t 104% k hoch, tng
14% so vi cng k.
i vi cc cng ty c phn tng doanh thu t 11.660 t ng t
108% k hoch, tng 27% so vi nm 2006. Trong khi vn ti doanh thu t
4.319 t ng t 108% k hoch, tng 23% so vi cng k. Tng li nhun sau

19

thu t 581 t ng t 134% k hoch, tng 67% so vi nm 2006. Trong khi

vn ti li nhun 339 t ng, t 156%, tng 72% so vi nm 2006.
i vi cc cng ty lin doanh doanh thu t 1.890 t ng, t 119%
k hoch tng 23% so vi cng k. Li nhun sau thu 100 t ng t 155% k
hoch tng 35% so vi nm 2006.
i vi chi nhnh Singapore khi lng kinh doanh xng du
366.000m3 , tn tng 37% so vi k hoch Tcty giao, thc hin 148 chuyn i l
tu bin (15% s tu ngoi Tcty), doanh thu t 304 triu SGD, tng gp 2 ln so
vi nm 2006, li nhun trc thu t 817.000SGD (tng ng hn 9 t ng).
2.2.

Gii thiu khi qut v th trng vn ti xng du

2.2.1 Th trng vn ti xng du quc t n nm 2015

nh gi tng lai i tu vn ti du cc nh phn tch trc ht da
vo kt qu nghin cu, nh gi tnh hnh n nh v mi mt (chnh tr, kinh t)
v mc pht trin kinh t th gii. y c coi l mt trong s cc yu t quan
trng nht c tc ng n nhu cu nng lng. Theo d bo ca IEA (c quan
nng lng th gii) th mc tng trng kinh t trung bnh hng nm ca th gii
c s bin ng ng u tt c cc khu vc kinh t ln (biu di y). Tuy
nhin s tip tc duy tr mc 3,8% cho giai on t nay n nm 2030 (t l ny
cao hn so vi mc tng trung bnh trong 30 nm qua), mc d mc tng trng
ca cc khu vc kinh t c khc nhau. IEA cng a ra d bo mc tng trng ca
Trung Quc lun dn u. iu c th d bo nhu cu tiu th nhin liu ca
Trung Quc trong vi thp nin na lin tc mc cao nht v y l mt th
trng vn ti cn c quan tm c bit.

20

Hnh 2.1. Biu mc tng trng kinh t trung bnh hng nm cc khu vc
kinh t ln

Ngun: C quan nng lng Hoa K thng 6/2006

Tng hp cc nghin cu v th trng nng lng th gii n 2025 cho
thy du m v cc sn phm du m (k c kh gas) lun ng vai tr quan trng
v l ngun nng lng chnh, chim t trng cao nht trong s cc ngun nng
lng khc c s dng trn th gii. Biu di y nu trong ti liu Hot
ng vn ti quc t trong thng mi th gii c trnh by ti ngy l hng hi,
do Intertanko t chc ngy 15/11/2005 ti Lisbon. Qua thy du m v kh gas
chim t trng 63% ngun nng lng th gii, tip theo l than (25%) v cc
ngun nng lng khc nh nguyn t, thy in (12%).
Nhn nh trn ph hp vi nh gi ngy 16/12/2003 vn phng nghin cu
nng lng Hoa K a ra kt qu nghin cu tng hp tnh hnh s dng nng
lng th gii t nm 1970 n 2003 v d bo cho n nm 2025. Theo trong
vng hn 20 nm na, mc d c th b tc ng ca chnh sch v ti nguyn, mi
trng ca cc quc gia nhng du m vn l ngun nng lng quan trng, chim
t trng s dng ln nht trong nn kinh t th gii vi 39% nhu cu nng lng th
gii, t ip theo l kh gas (24%), than (25%) v cc ngun nng lng khc l ht
nhn (6%) v thy in (6%).

21

Hnh 2.2. D bo tnh hnh s dng nng lng trn th gii n nm 2025
Global primary energy consumption by fuel
million tonnes oil equ ivalen ts

6%

6%

Oil: 3563
Gas: 2286

25%

39%
24%

Coal: 2412
Nuclear: 611
Hydro: 593

Source: BP

Ngun: BP
Da vo cc nghin cu, phn tch ton din v tnh hnh pht trin ca kinh
t th gii t chc nng lng th gii (IEA) a ra d bo vi 3 trng hp v
nhu cu nng lng th gii trong tng lai gn n 2015. Theo n nm 2015
nhu cu ti thiu l 91,8 triu thng/ngy, ti a l 102,6 triu thng/ngy v trung
bnh mc 98,2 triu thng/ ngy.
Hnh 2.3. Bng d bo nhu cu nng lng th gii t nm 2007 2015
vt : triu thng /ngy

Ngun: McQuilling

22

Ngoi ra hi ngh vn ti nng lng do Intertanko t chc ngy 5/12/2006

cng a ra d bo tiu th du m trn th gii n 2030 theo nhu cu s dng
in lc, vn ti, cng nghip, thng mi v dn dng. Theo tng nhu cu
lng du th gii vo nm 2010 d bo s s dng 92 triu thng/ngy, nm 2020
t104 triu thng/ngy v n nm 2030 l 118 triu thng/ngy.
Hnh 2.4. Biu d bo mc tiu th du th gii theo ngnh kinh t giai on
t 2003 2030
World Oil Consumption, 2003-2030
(million barrels per day)
1 40
1 20

Elec tric it y
Tra nsporta tion
Indus tria l
Comme rcial
Res ident ia l
98

1 00
80

118
104

111

92
80

60
40
20
0
2 00 3

20 10

2 015

2 020

202 5

20 30

Source: EI A / Internati onal Energy Outlook 2006

Ngun: T chc nng lng th gii (EIA)12/2006

Hi ngh ca Intertanko v th trng tu du v du sn phm trong giai
on n 2012, hp thng 3/2007 a ra kt qu nghin cu ca Gibson Shipbroker (London) v nh gi th trng tu ch du sng c trng ti t 55.000
DWT tr ln cho thy mt s kt lun sau:
So vi nm 2006 nhu cu du sng nm 2010 tng thm 5,5 triu
thng/ngy.
So vi nm 2006 nng lc lc du ca n tng 1,4 triu thng/ ngy
v cc nc Trung ng tng thm 3,0 triu thng/ ngy, nng sn lng lc du
ca cc thnh vin OPEC nm 2012 ln thm 50% (t 8,9 triu thng ln 13,3 triu

23

thng/ngy). ng thi nng nng lc xut khu ca cc nc thnh vin trn ln t

2,1 triu thng/ ngy n 5,3 triu thng/ngy.
Trn c s bo co cng d bo nng lc vn ti n nm 2010 ca i
tu sn phm c t 55.000 DWT n 120.000 DWT ca th gii s tng khong
200% - 215% so vi nm 2006. Biu di y phn nh d bo thc t .
Hnh 2.5. Biu d bo i tu du th gii c 55.000 120.000 DWT n
nm 2010

Ngun: Gibson ship-broker thng 3/2007

Qua phn tch trn thy s khc bit v a l gia ngun cung cp v khch
hng tiu th. Nh vy pht sinh nhu cu vn ti ln l t t yu. V ngun cung cp
nhin liu v khch hng nhu cu tiu th nhin liu ln nht ca th gii trong giai
on n 2030 cng c EIA a ra d bo trong vng 20 nm na bn cnh chu
M La Tinh v Chu Phi s l nhng ngun cung cp du tim nng th Trung
ng vn l ngun cung cp nng lng du m ln nht ca th gii. ng thi
cng ch ra mc tiu th nhin liu ca cc nc ln (Trung Quc, Nht Bn, Hoa
K, theo khu vc: ng Bc , Chu M, Chu u).
Da vo phn tch cc yu t a l kinh t th gii, bn kt lun cng d
bo phng thc v tuyn vn ti du v sn phm du th gii. Theo trong

24

tng lai tuyn vn ti tng lai s khng khc nhiu so vi tuyn vn ti nm

2005, c trnh by trong s di y.
Hnh 2.6. S mt s tuyn chnh vn ti du th trn th gii nm 2005

Seaborne Crude Oil Flows - 2005

Ngun:INTERTANKO 2005
V gi cc vn ti tu du th gii g iai on n 2012 c d bo s tng
ln nh trong biu di y. Theo mc gi thu nh hn tu du Aframax
tuyn vng Vnh - Nht bn trong giai on 2008 - 2009 s gim xung mc 23.000
- 25.000 USD/ngy ri tng ln mc gi nm 2006 l 33.000 USD/ngy v tip tc
tng ln mc 39.000 USD/ngy (nm 2011) v 45.000 USD/ngy vo nm 2012.

25

Hnh 2.7. Biu tng hp v d bo gi thu tu du tu c 55.000 120.000

DWT giai on 2000 2012

Ngun: Gibson ship-broker thng 3/2007

Nu d bo ny l chnh xc th giai on u t tu Aframax tt nht l giai
on 2008 2009. iu ny cng ph hp vi d bo nm 2004 v tnh hnh th
trng tu du ca Tcty xng du Vit Nam, khi xy dng k hoch u t i tu
ch du n 2015, trong c 2 n 3 tu Aframax.
Vi nhng dn chng trn c th thy trong tng lai hot ng vn ti xng
du vin dng th gii ni chung vn c rt nhiu c hi pht trin do nhu cu vn
ti vn tip tc pht trin vi nhng kt lun kh khch quan nh sau:
Trong giai on 2 nm 2005 2006 th trng tu du c kh khn do thay
i v c cu i tu du trc nhng yu cu mi m bo an ton mi trng
bin ca IMO. Giai on 2008 2010 kh khn v nng lc vn ti gim i do s
lng tu ng mi cha kp a ra th thng.
Nhu cu s dng nhin liu th gii v nng lc lc du ca th gii s tip
tc tng sau 2010 khin nhu cu vn ti trong tng lai s tng ln u n. y l
mt c s xem xt cn nhc khi quyt nh tham gia th trng vn ti xng du
th gii thng qua i tu Aframax ca Tcty xng du Vit Nam.
2.2.2. Th trng vn ti xng du Vit Nam n nm 2015

26

Cng nh nhiu nc trong khu vc, ti Vit Nam cung cp nhin liu c
ngun gc t sn phm du ng mt vai tr quan trng trong nn kinh t quc dn.
Xng du c coi l mt hng chin lc v do nh nc qun l v hn mc nhp
khu v gi bn trn th trng. K t khi nh nc Vit Nam thc hin chnh sch
i mi (1986), mc tiu th nhin liu ti Vit Nam tng ng k, c bit giai
on t 1996 n nay. Kt qu thng k trong nhng nm gn y (1996 2007)
cho thy tc pht trin kinh t tc ng mnh n tc tiu th xng du
nh sau:
Bng 2.1 Tc tng trng kinh t v nhu cu tiu th xng du Vit Nam
giai on 1996 2007
Hng mc nh gi
Nm
Tc pht trin
Tiu th xng du
T l tng nhu cu
3
kinh t (%/nm)
(triu tn - m )
xng du (%/nm)
1996
9,34
5.899.000
1997
8,15
5.947.000
0,81%
1998
5,76
6.731.000
13,18%
1999
4,77
7.325.000
8,82%
2000
6,80
7.800.000
6,48%
2001
6,90
7.021.000
- 9,99%
2002
7,08
8.483.000
20,82%
2003
7,34
11.500.000
35,56%
2004
7,79
11.480.000
- 0,17%
2005
8,44
12.400.000
8.01%
2006
8,17
13.100.000
5,65%
2007
8,48
14.048.000
7,24%
Trung bnh giai on 1996 - 2007
8,76%
Ngun : Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam
2.2.2.1. D bo tiu th xng du ca Vit Nam n 2015
Cc ch tiu trn c rt ra t kt qu thng k ca Tcty xng du Vit
Nam nn m bo tin cy cao. Trn c s , kt hp vi d bo pht trin kinh
t x hi Vit Nam; d bo nhu cu vn ti v t l tng trng cc ch s kinh t
cho cc nm tip theo n nm 2015 lm c s tnh ton, d bo v lp bng tng
hp khi nh gi tc ng ca cc nh my lc du phn sau nh sau:

27

Mc d tc tng tiu th xng du ca Vit Nam trong giai on 2001

2004 tng t bin v t l trung bnh 11 nm 1996 2007 l 8,76%/nm nhng
m bo an ton khi xc nh tc tng nhu cu tiu th xng du trung
bnh tng ng mc tng trng tiu th xng du trong giai on trc nm
2000, theo d bo mc trung bnh 7%/nm cho giai on n nm 2015. C s
chn 7% c da vo 2 yu t sau:
- Nu loi tr tc tng t bin t nm 2001 n nm 2004, th
nhng nm cn li t 1996 n nm 2007 t l tng bnh qun l 7,!7%.
- Thng thng cc doanh nghip khi lp k hoch cho doanh nghip
thng ly k hoch trung bnh ca 3 nm lin k trc lm ch
tiu cho d bo, nh vy theo thng k 3 nm 2005, 2006, 2007 th t
l t c khong 7% nm.
Do t 2 yu t trn m Tcty chn t l nhu cu tiu th xng du c
nc tng 7% /nm lm c s d bo cho nhng nm k tip.
Th phn (tng ng t l nhp khu xng du) ca Tcty trong giai
on sau 2010 (sau khi nh my lc du s 1 v 2 hot ng) chim 50% tng nhu
cu x hi.
Ring mt hng du DO nhp khu duy tr mc trung bnh 49-50%
tng sn lng xng du nhp khu ca Tcty.
2.2.2.2. Tnh hnh nhp khu xng du ca Vit Nam trong giai on 2000 n
nm 2007
Theo quyt nh 187/2003/Q-TTg ngy 15/9/2003 th t ngy 1/1/2004 c
nc c hn 10 n v tham gia th trng nhp khu v kinh doanh xng du,
trong c mt s n v ln nh: Tcty xng du VN (Petrolimex); Cng ty ch
bin v kinh doanh du m (PDC); Cng ty thng mi du kh (Petechim); Cng ty
thng mi k thut v u t (Petec); Cng ty xut nhp khu du kh TP H Ch
Minh (Saigon Petro); Cng ty xng du hng khng Vit Nam (Vinapco); Cng ty
lin doanh du kh Mekong (Petro Mekong); Cng ty xng du qun i v cng ty

28

du kh ng Thp, trong Tcty xng du Vit Nam l n v chnh, lun duy tr

th phn ln nht, khong 60% th trng xng du Vit Nam.
Sn lng nhp khu xng du cc loi t nm 2000 2007 ca cc n v
kinh doanh xng du trong ton quc v ca ring Tcty thc hin c tng hp
trong bng di y. Trong sn lng v t l mt hng du DO l mt hng
nhp khu chim t trng kh cao trong sn lng nhp v kinh doanh ca c nc.
Bng 2.2. Bng tng lng xng du Vit Nam nhp khu v sn lng do
tng cng ty nhp t 2000 - 2007
Tng lng xng - du cc li
Nm

Nhu cu
xng - du
ton quc
(m3 _ tn)

Lng xng du do
Cty nhp khu

Khi lng T l
(m3 _tn)
2000
7.800.000
4.810.000 61,7%
2001
7.021.140
4.228.500 60,2%
2002
8.483.180
5.031.950 59,3%
2003
11.500.000 7.200.000 62,6%
2004
11.480.000 7.460.000 65,0%
2005
12.400.000 7.700.000 62.1%
2006
13.100.000 7.710.000 58,8%
2007
14.048.000 8.504.000 60,5%
Trung bnh 61,3%
Ngun: Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam

Mt hng du DO
Nhu cu
ton quc
(m3 )

Cty thc hin

Khi lng
(m3 )

4.942.000
4.758.000
5.351.000
5.700.000
5.750.000
5.800.000
6.000.000
6.900.000

T l

2.987.000 60,4 %
2.548.000 53,6 %
2.829.000 52,9 %
3.200.000 56.0 %
3.600.000 62,6 %
3.570.000 61,6 %
3.560.000 59,3 %
4.624.000 67.0%
Trung bnh 59,2 %

S liu t bng tng hp trn cho thy:

Sn lng xng du nhp khu ca Tcty t trung bnh mc 61,3% tng
nhu cu c nc. Vi c s h tng (kho cng, h thng phn phi bn l, ...) ng
b; uy tn trong kinh doanh cng vic thc hin c ch kinh doanh xng du linh
hot ca nh nc to cho Tcty c s khng nh vai tr quan trng trong cung ng
xng du, phc v pht trin kinh t v nhu cu x hi Vit Nam, do t l th
phn 60% ca Tcty trong nhng nm ti vn c c s duy tr.

29

Lng du DO do Tcty nhp t t l trung bnh mc 59,2% tng lng

du DO trong nhu cu ton quc v tng ng 54,4% tng lng xng du do
Tcty nhp khu.
2.3.

Cc yu t nh hng n chin lc pht trin i tu tng cng ty

2.3.1.

D bo tc ng ca cc nh my lc du n hot ng nhp khu

du ca tng cng ty n 2015
Trong nhiu nm qua c nhiu cng ty nh nc cng nh a phng

lp d n xy dng nh my lc du. in hnh l nh my lc du s 1 Dung

Qut do tp on du kh quc gia (Petro Vit Nam) l ch u t vi cng sut 6,5
triu tn du th/nm vi ngun cung cp nguyn liu chnh l du th ni a t
m Bch H. Hin nay cng tc thit k t 80% khi lng v mua sm thit b
t khong 50% khi lng. y l nh my c iu kin kh thi cung cp sn
phm ra th trng theo k hoch nh vo cui nm 2009. Theo thit k khi nh
my lc du s 1 hot ng n nh s cung cp du DO khong 3 triu m3 /nm.
Tip theo l khu lin hp lc ha du Nghi Sn. Theo thng tin thng
2/2007 th y l sn phm lin doanh gia Petro Vit Nam vi tp on du kh
Idemitsu (Nht Bn) vi cng sut thit k 8,4 triu tn du th/nm vi ngun
nguyn liu trong nc 50% v 50% nhp khu t Trung ng. Sn phm chnh
ca lin hp ha du Nghi Sn gm 2,1 triu tn xng; 2,6 triu tn DO; 0,5 triu
tn kh ha lng, 0,8 triu tn du my bay v mt s ha cht ang c nhu cu s
dng nhiu. Theo k hoch th lin hp ha du Nghi Sn i vo hot ng nm
2013. Tuy nhin do vn u t ln (d kin ban u khong trn 5,25 t USD do
Vit Nam ng gp 29% v Idemitsu 71%) v trong iu kin gi c vt t, thit b
tng cao dn n vt kh nng thu xp vn ca cc bn th tin c th s b ko
di, kh hon thnh theo ng k hoch.
Ngoi 2 d n trn cn c d n nh my lc du s 3 ti Long Sn (Vng
Tu). D n ny c Th tng ph duyt vi cng sut 7 triu tn/nm, ch
yu s dng nguyn liu nhp khu. y l d n c thc hin vi hnh thc lin

30

doanh, hoc 100% vn nc ngoi hoc t u t v nh my a vo vn hnh

trc 2015.
Ngoi 3 d n lc du ln nu trn cn c mt s d n nh khc nh nh
my lc du s 4 Hi H (Qung Ninh), Nh my lc du nh V (Hi Phng)
hay Nhn Hi (Bnh nh).
Cn c vo hin trng trin khai cc d n th thy nh my lc du s 1
Dung Qut l s a vo hot ng nm 2009 2010. Cn cc nh my khc vi
nhiu l do khc nhau, tnh kh thi cha cao hoc tin s khng hon thnh nh
d kin.
Do vy yu t tc ng chnh n nhu cu nhp khu du DO (mt hng vn
chuyn chnh ca tu Aframax) l sn lng 3 triu m3 du DO ca nh my s 1.
Vic cc nh my lc du ra i v hot ng n nh trong tng lai chc chn s
tc ng n hot ng nhp khu, c bit l mt hng DO ca Tcty ni ring v
cc doanh nghip kinh doanh xng du ni chung, thng qua l hot ng vn ti
xng du ng bin. V vy vic xy dng chin lc phi xem xt c th tc ng
ca nh my n vn ti mt hng du DO nhp khu trong nhng nm sau 2009
2010.
Cng vi nh my s 1, gi nh nh my lc du s 2 i vo hot ng nm
2013 c nng sut tng ng th tng cng sut c hai nh my d kin m bo
khong 6 triu m3 DO/nm. D bo v nng sut v cc loi sn phm ca cc nh
my lc du s 1 v 2 sau khi i vo hot ng n nh nh sau:
Bng 2.3. Bng d bo nng lc 2 nh my lc du (Dung Qut v Nghi Sn)
khi hot ng ht cng sut
D bo nng lc ca nh
Loi sn phm
my lc du s 1
(tn - m3 du sn phm)
D.O
3.000.000
Xng
2.058.000
F.O
84.000
Du ha v Jet A1
572.000
Ngun: Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam

D bo nng lc ca 2 nh
my lc du
(tn - m3 du sn phm)
6.000.000
4.116.000
168.000
1.144.000

31

nh gi tc ng hot ng ca cc nh my lc du n hot ng
nhp khu v vn ti vin dng, gi thit l sau khi cc nh my lc du i vo
hot ng theo ng k hoch n nh s cung cp ton b sn phm cho nhu cu
ni a Vit Nam v xy dng bng d bo di y (vi t l th phn ca Tcty d
bo chim 50% th phn ton quc).
Bng 2.4. Bng d bo nhu cu nhp khu xng du ca Vit Nam v sn lng
xng du do tng cng ty nhp n 2015
n v: tn m3
Sn lng xng du
Tng nhu cu Hai nh my lc Lng xng du c
Nm
nhp khu ca
c nc
du cung cp
nc nhp khu
cng ty (50%)
2006 13.100.000
13.100.000
6.550.000
2007 14.048.000
14.048.000
7.024.000
2008 15.031.000
15.031.000
7.515.000
2009 16.083.000
16.083.000
8.041.000
2010 17.209.000
6.000.000
11.209.000
5.105.000
2011 18.414.000
6.000.000
12.414.000
6.207.000
2012 19.703.000
6.000.000
13.703.000
6.852.000
2013 21.082.000
12.000.000
9.041.000
4.020.000
2014 22.558.000
12.000.000
10.558.000
5.279.000
2015 24.137.000
12.000.000
12.137.000
6.068.000
Ngun: Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam
T 1996 2007 Tcty nhp khu t trung bnh 54,6% tng nhu cu du
DO ca c nc. Cn c t l cc mt hng nhp khu trong bng "Qui hoch i
tu du Tcty t 2005 2015" d bo t l du DO do Tcty nhp khu duy tr mc
50% sn lng nhp khu hng nm cho cc nm sau 2005. Trn c s lp bng
cn i nhu cu nhp khu DO cho giai on n 2015 ca Vit Nam v ca Tcty,
lm c s xc nh nhu cu vn ti cho tu Aframax ti bng di y.
Bng 2.5. Bng d bo lng DO do tng cng ty nhp khu n nm 2015
n v: m3
D bo tng sn lng xng du
D bo sn lng du DO do
Nm
cng ty nhp khu
cng ty nhp khu
2006
6.550.000
3.275.000
2007
7.024.000
3.512.000
2008
7.515.000
3.758.000

32

2009
8.041.000
2010
5.105.000
2011
6.207.000
2012
6.852.000
2013
4.020.000
2014
5.279.000
2015
6.068.000
Ngun: Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam

4.020.000
2.503.000
3.103.000
3.426.000
2.010.000
2.640.000
3.034.000

Trn c s phn tch v s liu tng hp trong cc bng trn c th i n kt

lun s tc ng ca cc nh my lc du khi ra i nh hng n hot ng vn
chuyn nhp khu ca Tcty, nh sau:
Trong vng 2 3 nm ti nh my lc du u tin i vo hat ng. Vi
cng sut ch bin ca nh my l 6,5 triu tn du th/nm, cho d phng n
cng ngh c la chn ti a l xng hay du DO th vn cn mt lng nhin
liu kh ln phi nhp khu v trong thi gian xy dng nh my nhu cu tiu th
xng du ca x hi tip tc tng. Tng t nh vy ti nm 2015, nng lc cung
cp du D.O theo thit k ca c hai nh my vn ch p ng mt phn nhu cu x
hi. Vi mc khc nhau theo tng nm nhng nhu cu nhp khu DO vn tip
tc tn ti vi khi lng ln.
Vo giao on cc nm 2010 v 2013, khi cc nh my lc du bt u
khai thc ht nng sut s khin nhu cu nhp khu du DO gim xung (cn
khong 2 triu m3 /nm), th Tcty s c bin php iu chnh phng n khai thc
ph hp nhm m bo hot ng kinh doanh cng nh kh nng khai thc hiu
qu tu Aframax nh cho thu nh hn, chuyn sang chuyn ch du th trong
trng hp cc nh my lc du trong nc c nhu cu nhp du th t Trung ng
v.v...
Vic Tcty u t tu Aframax trc ht l p ng nhu cu vn ti thay
th vic thu tu ch du t Trung ng v Vit Nam nh hin nay vi sn lng
trung bnh gn 1 triu m3 /nm. Nh vy trong giai on trc mt, n khong

33

2010 2012 nng lc vn ti bng tu Aframax vn ch m bo c mt phn

nhu cu nhp khu ca Tcty.
Vic u t tu Aframax nm trong chin lc pht trin i tu vin
dng ca Tcty, ngoi vic vn chuyn phc v kinh doanh ca Tcty th cn mc
tiu l hng ti th trng trong khu vc v th gii. Trong giai on 3 4 nm
hot ng; thit lp h thng qun l v khai thc hon chnh; to dng uy tn trn
th trng khu vc v quc t, kt hp cht ch vi cc i tc trong v ngoi nc,
nu trong trng hp c kh khn v ngun hng ni a, th Tcty vn c c hi
m bo ngun hng vn ti cho i tu vin dng.
Nh xc nh Tcty u t tu Aframax u tin vi mc tiu trc ht
l phc v v m bo ch ng trong hot ng kinh doanh. V lu di vic u t
tu Aframax c mc tiu to dng c hi pht trin hot ng vn ti ra khu vc v
th gii. Do vy vic ra i cc nh my lc du ti Vit Nam khng nhng khng
hon ton gy kh khn cho hot ng ca i tu vin dng Tcty m cn l c
hi pht trin i tu (khi cc nh my l c du cn phng tin ch du th nhp
khu lm nguyn liu sn xu t) do c s chun b sm v rt kinh nghim trong
cng tc qun l, khai thc i tu vin dng ny.
2.3.2. D bo tc ng kho ngoi quan Vn Phong n vic pht trin i tu
Cng ty lin doanh kho xng du ngoi quan Vn Phong c u t vi
s vn 150 triu USD v c sc cha 1 triu m3 xng du cc loi. Tcty cng vi
cng ty c phn bo him Petrolimex (Pjico) v cng ty PB Tankes limited ca
Singapore gp vn lin doanh xy dng kho cha xng du ngoi quan ln ti vnh
Vn Phong tnh Khnh Ho. Trong Tcty gp 55% vn, Pjico gp 15% v PB
Tankes Limited gp 30%.
Cng ty lin doanh kho xng du ngoi quan Vn Phong c xy dng ti
o M Giang nm trn vnh Vn Phong; cch t lin 425mt, c din tch
430km2 , c su trung bnh 25-30mt. Vn u t giai on 1 l 100 triu USD;
quy m b cha giai on 1 l 505.000m3 gm 29 bn cha xng, du diesel, du
F.O; cng vi 4 cu tu c kh nng tip nhn tu 150.000DWT v cc cu cng

34

xut hng cho tu t 500DWT n 60.000DWT vi cng sut nhp hng ti a

6.000m3 /h, xut hng ti a 4.200m3 /h. i km l cc cng trnh h tr nh vn
phng, trm in, trm bm nc, cp nc, trm x l mi trng v ng b
ni o vi t lin... Ton b cc thit b c u t hon ton mi, hin i v t
ng ho cao, tng ng vi cc kho xng, du ngoi quan ti chu . D n ny
s c trin khai trong vng 30 thng, sau giai on 2 s u t tip 50 triu
USD na, nng sc cha ca b cha ln 1 triu m3 . Vic u t kho xng du ti
vnh Vn Phong c ngha quan trng trong cung cp xng du vo Vit Nam v
cc th trng khc, tng thm 1 kho d tr vi khi lng ln nhm n nh th
trng xng du trong nc mi khi th trng du trn th gii bin ng.
y l d n mang tm chin lc quc gia trong vic cung ng v phn
phi xng du Vit Nam, c nh hng ln n th trng xng du trong nc v
khu vc. V vy vic xy dng kho xng du ngoi quan khng nh hng n
chin lc pht trin i tu ca Tcty. Vic xy dng tng kho xng du ngoi quan
ti Vn Phong s to iu kin thun li cho vic nng cao hiu qu khai thc i
tu vin dng thng qua vic rt ngn thi gian tr hng ti cng Vit Nam, tng
vng quay vn ti, to mi lin hon thng nht trong hot ng kinh doanh xng
du ca Tcty. cng l c hi rt thun li cho vic u t v khai thc tu
Aframax.
Cng vi cc nh my lc du s 1, 2 vi tng nng lc sc cha thit k
1.000.000 m3 tng kho xng du ngoi quan Vn Phong khi c khai thc 100%
nng lc t nm 2009, s tr thnh mt trong cc trung tm phn phi du sn phm
ln ca Vit Nam.

35

y l iu kin tt cho hot ng vn ti xng du vin dng v ni a

Vit Nam cng pht trin.
Hnh 2.8. Kho xng du ngoi quan Vn Phong

Ngun: Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam

2.3.3. D bo tc ng vic u t i tu vin dng i vi i tu hin hu
ca tng cng ty
Tng hp v nh gi kt qu vn ti trong 2005 2007 (l giai on m
nng lc vn ti ca i tu Tcty kh n nh mc cao nht t trc n nay) cho
thy nng lc ca Tcty vn ti cc mt hng xng du nhp khu t cc nc trong
khu vc v chuyn ti t tu m (tu Aframax do Tcty thu) ti Vn Phong nh sau:
xng chim t l l 45%; du DO chim t l 55% - 60% v du FO chim t l l
60%. Ring sn lng du FO t nm 2008 c kh nng tng ln do cng ty VIPCO
(cng ty con m Tcty ang c c phn chi phi) mi c u t tu Petrolimex 10
ch du FO. Tuy nhin mc tiu u t tu Aframax nhm ch du DO t Trung
ng v Vit Nam nn khng tc ng n hot ng ca cc tu ch FO hin c.
i tu du ca Tcty thuc 2 cng ty vn ti c phn (cng ty con) qun l
(trong Tcty nm gi 51% vn) tnh n thng 4/2007 c tng trng ti hn

36

240.000 DWT, ch yu vn chuyn cc mt hng xng du cc loi do Tcty nhp

khu t cc nc trong khu vc v tham gia chuyn ti t tu m ti Vn Phong n
cc cng ni a Vit Nam. Tuy nhin t 2007 2010 nng lc vn ti ca i tu
Tcty c thay i do n 2009 s c t nht 3 tu Petrolimex 01, 03 v 04 vi tng
nng lc gn 80.000 DWT phi thanh l gii bng hoc khng c chy tuyn
quc t do ht tui khai thc hoc khng p ng yu cu mi ca IMO. Nh vy
s tu mi u t thm ca VITACO v VIPCO cng ch p ng thay th i tu
c v nng lc vn ti thc t ch t 160.000 DWT, tng ng giai on 20042005 (trc khi c phn ha 2 cng ty con).
Mt khc cc tu ny ch hot ng trn cc tuyn ngn trong khu vc v
Vit Nam. Hu ht khi lng hng ha do i tu Tcty vn chuyn u thuc cc
hp ng ngn hn vi l hng nh. Vi mc tiu u t tu c Aframax l chuyn
ch hng nhp khu trc tip t Trung ng hoc cc trung tm du m khc trn
th gii nn khi u t, tu Aframax s gip chuyn dch t l xng du nhp khu
theo phng thc ngn hn (ph thuc nhiu hn) sang phng thc hp ng di
hn vi l hng ln (m bo ch ng ngun v hiu qu kinh t cao hn), qua
tc ng tch cc ti hiu qu kinh doanh xng du.
Theo tnh ton lng du D.O do Tcty nhp t Trung ng t khong 1
triu m3 /nm. y l sn lng hp l cho mt tu Aframax chy chuyn tuyn
Trung ng Vit Nam vi tn sut 38 40 ngy/chuyn. Nh vy khi u t tu
Aframax, Tcty hon ton c c hi ch ng trong vn ti v tc ng tch cc n
chi ph vn ti v gi thnh u vo hng ha kinh doanh.
2.4.
2.4.1

Phn tch cc yu t mi trng nh hng n hot ng ca tng

cng ty
Mi trng v m
nh hng kinh t
Vic Vit Nam ra nhp WTO cui nm 2006 l bc trin khai chnh

sch hi nhp quc t ca Vit Nam nhm pht huy ni lc, tranh th ngun lc bn
ngoi v ch ng hi nhp kinh t quc t pht trin nhanh, c hiu qu v bn

37

vng. Ch ng hi nhp kinh t quc t nhm m rng th trng, tranh th vn,

cng ngh, kin thc qun l y mnh cng nghip ha, hin i ha theo nh
hng x hi ch nghi, thc hin dn giu, nc mnh, x hi cng bng, dn ch,
vn minh, thc hin thng li nhng nhim v nu ra trong chin lc pht trin
kinh t - x hi n 2015 v giai on sau .
ng thi nh nc ch trng tip tc y mnh sp xp, i mi,
nht l c phn ha mnh hn na nhng doanh nghip nh nc, pht trin v
nng cao hiu qu kinh t nh nc, pht trin mnh khng hn ch qui m cc
doanh nghip thuc cc thnh phn kinh t khc, khuyn khch pht trin mnh kinh
t tp th, kinh t t nhn, kinh t c vn u t nc ngoi v cc t chc kinh t
c phn; nng cao sc cnh tranh ca doanh nghip. l ng li chin lc v
c s quan trng cho Tcty nhm pht trin theo hng i tt, n u v to ra th
bt ph trong hot ng vn ti xng du vin dng.
Quyt nh 1195/Q-TTg ngy 04/11/2004 ca Th tng chnh ph
ph duyt quy hoch pht trin vn ti bin Vit Nam n nm 2010 v nh hng
nm 2020 th nh nc khuyn khch v yu cu cc doanh nghip vn ti bin pht
trin vn ti bin vi tc nhanh, ng b nhm p ng nhu cu vn ti bin ca
nn kinh t quc dn, phc v cho s nghip CNH-HH; tng sc cnh tranh ca
vn ti bin ch ng hi nhp v m rng th trng vn ti trong khu vc v
trn th gii.
Trc nhu cu pht trin ca thi k i mi, nh thc y v vai
tr ca hot ng vn ti xng du ng bin, Tcty tp trung pht trin i tu
vn ti bin xa. Vi mt li th l n v ang qun l v khai thc i tu bin ch
sn phm du ln nht v hin i nht Vit Nam, vi tng trng ti trn 230.000
DWT. i tu ang c khai thc hiu qu gp phn quan trng trong hot ng
kinh doanh xng du c nc.
Tm li trong nn kinh t hin nay, Tcty c y cc iu kin cn
hi nhp vi th gii thng qua hot ng vn ti xng du, cn li ph thuc

38

vo cc chin lc ca Tcty c ph hp hay khng, xy dng v pht trin i tu

vin dng pht trin trong nn kinh t hin nay.
nh hng x hi, t nhin v nhn khu
Mi trng x hi c nh hng n chin lc kinh doanh ca Tcty.
Vi mc sng ngy cng cao, i sng nhn dn ngy cng c ci thin v nhu
cu cng c nng ln. Ngi dn mong mun c c ch tt hn, nhu cu i
li nhiu hn, tin nghi, thoi mi hn, mi trng sng sch s hn, mun t
c nhng yu cu trn khi thc hin chin lc, Tcty cng ch n vic bo
v mi trng. Tu Aframax chc chn l i tng trin khai thc hin qui nh
ny trc tin, tuy nhin tu Aframax l loi tu c nng lc vn ti ln, hot ng
trn phm vi ton cu nn chc chn p ng mi yu cu m bo mi trng ca
mi quc gia trn th gii. V vy mi tc ng ti mi trng ca tu Aframax, t
nhiu gc u c kim sot cht ch t khu thit k, lp t n vn hnh
khai thc.
V tr a l thun li: Vit Nam c trn 3.200 km b bin, nm trn
ng ba ng ca tuyn hng hi quc t Chu u - Bc ; Chu c - ng Bc ;
ng Nam - ng Bc , vi qung ng tng ng tuyn C Ot - Vit
Nam. Trong trng hp c thm cc i tc khc trong khu vc ng Bc hoc
Ty n th xt trn kha cnh a l v mi trng, hot ng ca tu Aframax
khng b nh hng.
iu kin t nhin: vi nhiu thun li v v tr a l chin lc
hng hi cng nh iu kin t nhin, c bit vi su t nhin 22 - 23 mt, vnh
Vn Phong c a im l tng tip nhn thun li cc tu bin c ln n
250.000 DWT v tin hnh cc hot ng chuyn ti xng du t tu m sang cc
tu ni a hoc bm ln kho trung chuyn trn b. ng thi m bo vic chuyn
ti bng tu n cc cng ni a c ba min Bc, Trung v Nam l thun li v
hiu qu kinh t.
Vit Nam l nc c dn s ng, v mt dn s thuc loi cao
trn th gii, dn s trung bnh nm 2007 ln n gn 85,2 triu ngi, ng th

39

t trong khu vc ng Nam v ng th 14 trn th gii, nhu cu tiu dng trong

nm 2008 s tng mnh do nhiu tc ng, ngoi vic tng trng kinh t th dn s
ng vai tr quan trng trong tiu dng, vic pht trin cng ngh to ra sn phm
p ng nhu cu tiu dng, vic vn chuyn lu thng hng ho s nh hng tt
n chin lc vn ti ca Tcty.
nh hng chnh tr, lut php v chnh ph
y l yu t ht sc quan trng doanh nghip tn ti v pht trin.
S n nh v chnh tr l mt th mnh to nim tin cho vic u t lu di vo
Vit Nam. Song song vi vic gi gn n nh v chnh tr, Vit Nam cam kt xy
dng mt nn kinh t m, hi nhp, nn kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch
ngha. chnh ph Vit Nam cam kt to mt sn chi bnh ng v mt mi trng
cnh tranh lnh mnh gia cc thnh phn kinh t, khuyn khch pht trin nn kinh
t hng ha nhiu thnh phn.
Theo Quyt nh s 181/TTg ngy 23/12/1992 ca Th tng chnh
ph v vic pht trin ngnh hng hi trong khuyn khch cc doanh nghip pht
trin i tu vn ti xng du di mi hnh thc: lin doanh, lin kt, thu mua,
vay mua... phn u c th ch c ti a lng hng xut nhp khu (cho n nay
vn cha thc hin c).
Theo quyt nh 149/2003/Q-TTg ngy 21/7/2003 ca Th tng
chnh ph v chnh sch v c ch khuyn khch pht trin i tu bin Vit Nam
quy nh r i vi hng ha xut nhp khu bng ngun ti chnh c ngun gc t
ngn sch nh nc, ca cc cng ty c phn, doanh nghip vn ti bin Vit Nam
c dnh quyn vn ti, tr trng hp iu c quc t c quy nh khc. Cc
doanh nghip vn ti c min thu thu nhp trong 02 nm khi c thu nhp chu
thu v gim 50% s thu phi np trong 2 nm tip theo khi thc hin cc bin
php pht trin i tu.
Quyt nh 1195/Q-TTg ngy 04/11/2004 ca Th tng chnh ph
ph duyt quy hoch pht trin vn ti bin Vit Nam n nm 2010 v nh hng
nm 2020 th nh nc khuyn khch v yu cu cc doanh nghip vn ti bin pht

40

trin vn ti bin vi tc nhanh, ng b nhm p ng nhu cu vn ti bin ca

nn kinh t quc dn, phc v cho s nghip CNH-HH; tng sc cnh tranh ca
vn ti bin ch ng hi nhp v m rng th trng vn ti trong khu vc v
trn th gii.
nh hng cng ngh
u thng 12/2003, u ban an ton chng nhim bin ca IMO
hp v thng qua ngh quyt sa i quy nh ca cng c MARPOL 73/78, n
nh thi hn loi b tu du c kt cu v n (khng c y i hoc mn kp)
ch du sng ti a n nm 2010 hoc khng qu 25 tui v tu du v n
khng c php ch du en t thng 4/2005.
Mt khc hin nay vn khng hong du m lm cho gi du ln
cao, dn n chi ph vn ti cng tng theo t tc ng mnh n thng mi
th gii, tn ti cc hng tu cn phi hp tc chc ch vi nhau hn bng cch
ng dng cc cng ngh tin tin trong phn tch v qun l chi ph th hiu qu
hn, hin nay ngnh vn ti bin ton cu c khong 90.000 tu ch hng cc loi
v 1,2 triu thy th, tiu th trung bnh mi nm 369 triu tn du t tng
ng 7,29 triu thng du/ngy tc 8,5% lng du cung ng cho ton th gii,
Theo IMO cc hng vn ti bin v cc xng ng tu chp nhn chi nhiu tin
hn ng mi nhng con tu hin i hn th lng du tiu th s gim c
t 30% n 40%. T nhng vn c nu ra Tcty nhn thy vn u t
nhng con tu thuc th h mi, c nhng cng ngh tin tin n khng nhng
tit kim c nhin liu, lm gim chi ph nng cao kh nng cnh tranh m cn
lm cho mi trng ngy cng tt hn.
Tuy nhin pht trin i tu c cng ngh hin i p ng c cc
tiu chun ca IMO, khng phi cng ty no cng thc hin c m cn ph
thuc vo ti chnh ca cng ty . Tcty d on c iu ny v vi b dy
truyn thng vn ti xng du, thng qua kt qu hot ng kinh doanh hng nm
t c, Tcty chun b c cc phng n ti chnh, v d nh lin doanh vi
cc ngn hng hay cc cng ty khc v c hng ng mt cch tch cc.

41

2.4.2. Mi trng vi m
Cc i th cnh tranh
Theo quyt nh 187/2003/Q-TTg ngy 15/9/2003 th t ngy
1/1/2004 c nc c hn 10 n v tham gia th trng nhp khu v kinh doanh
xng du, trong c mt s n v ln nh: Cng ty ch bin v kinh doanh du
m (PDC); Cng ty thng mi du kh (Petechim); Cng ty thng mi k thut
v u t (Petec); Cng ty xut nhp khu du kh TP H Ch Minh (Saigon Petro);
Cng ty xng du hng khng Vit Nam (Vinapco); Cng ty lin doanh du kh
Mekong (Petro Mekong); Cng ty xng du Qun i v Cng ty du kh ng
Thp. Trong Tcty l n v chnh, lun duy tr th phn ln nht khong 50% n
60% trong th trng xng du Vit Nam.
Hin cc cng ty vn ti xng du khc trong nc cn kh khn v
ngun hng, cc loi c tu ny ti cc cng ty hu nh rt t u t v gi thnh
cao v khng c th phn ln tiu th nn khng xy ra cnh tranh ln, i vi
Tcty th tu c u t m bo cho hot ng vn ti v pht trin ra th trng
khu vc.
Hin nay s tu du trong nc cng c m bo yu cu ca cng c
quc t l rt t, c bit sau khi IMO trin khai thc hin cng c MAPOL 73/ 78
th s tu ch du s thiu ht trm trng do khng tiu chun chy nc ngoi.
Vic thu tu rt kh khn v gi rt cao, do vic cnh tranh l khng nht thit
l quan trng trong lc ny.
Khch hng
Vi chnh sch pht trin nn kinh t nhiu thnh phn ca ng v nh
nc Vit Nam, ti th trng ni a v ang pht trin cc doanh nghip kinh
doanh xng du tham gia bn bun, bn l xng du trn th trng ni a di
hnh thc i l, tng i l. Tcty cng vi cc i l, tng i l v cc i tc ca
mnh thc hin kinh doanh bnh ng, hai bn cng c li trn c s chp hnh
nghim tc lut php v cc quy nh ca nh nc trong lnh vc kinh doanh xng
du. Cc doanh nghip ny thc s l i ng bn hng tin cy v ang st cnh

42

vi doanh nghip pht trin ngy cng vng mnh. Tcty nh gi cao, coi trng cc
i l, tng i l ca mnh v ch trng tip tc pht trin mi quan h vi cc
doanh nghip ny mt cch cht ch, ton din, bn vng v lu di.
i vi nhm khch hng l cc c s kinh t trng yu trong nn
kinh t quc dn s dng nhiu diesel v nhin liu t l, hot ng sn xut kinh
doanh ca cc doanh nghip ny c nh hng n ton b i sng kinh t-x hi
v an ninh quc phng ca t nc, Tcty ch trng dnh cho nhm khch hng
ny nhng u i nht nh v ngun, gi c, cng n.
i vi nhm khch hng tiu dng trc tip vi s lng nh l,
Tcty cng vi h thng i l, tng i l ca mnh lun n lc phc v vi tinh
thn s lng, ng cht lng v thi gian m ca bn hng.
i vi khch hng tiu dng mt hng chnh sch, Tcty phi hp
cht ch vi cc tnh min ni bo m cung ng y v s lng, tin , ng
a ch v cc chnh sch khc theo ng ch o ca nh nc.
Nh cung cp
Trc nm 1995, Tcty thng nhp xng du t Singapore theo phng
thc CF. n giai on 1995 - 2001, cng vi vic duy tr phng thc nhp CF t
Singapore, Tcty tm kim ngun hng t cc nc khc trong khu vc nh Trung
Quc, i Loan, Thi Lan,..., chuyn sang nhp khu nhiu l hng theo phng
thc mua FOB v s dng i tu du Tcty ch v Vit Nam.
Cng vic duy tr quan h vi cc nh cung cp t cc nc trong khu
vc, Tcty tm kim cc nh cung cp khc t Trung ng. u nm 2002 cho
n nay Tcty tha thun vi ngi bn Trung ng a tu Aframax (trng ti
100.000 t n) n giao hng ti vng bin Vit Nam. Vic Tcty ch ng a tu
Aframax n cng Vit Nam l bc tin trong chin lc kinh doanh v vn ti
xng du. Thc t hn 5 nm chuyn ti thnh cng ti Vn Phong (Khnh Ha)
vi nng sut trung bnh 1 triu tn/nm, to cho Tcty c tm nhn v c hi pht
trin i tu trng ti ln, vn ti xng du vin dng.

43

Trong vi nm gn y vi mc tng trng kinh t hng nm ca

Vit Nam t khong 7%/nm, lng xng du nhp khu v tiu th ti Vit Nam
trung bnh trong 10 nm qua tng u trong cc nm qua v t mc khong 10%
n 11%/nm. Trn c s d bo nhu cu tiu th v nhp khu xng du t nay
n 2015 duy tr trung bnh mc khong 7%/nm, to ra c hi ln cho pht trin
hot ng vn ti xng du bng ng bin ca Tcty. Vic Tcty u t tu
Aframax ch hng nhp khu trc tip t Trung ng v Vit Nam, thay cho
vic dng tu nc ngoi nh hin nay l da trn ngun hng nhp khu n nh.
Kt qu nghin cu th trng v cc vn lin quan n xng du th
gii trong nhiu nm qua ca nhiu vin nghin cu lin quan n nng lng th
gii xc nh Trung ng v s lun l trung tm cung cp du du ln nht cho
cc khu vc khc trn th gii. Tuyn vn ti Trung ng - Vit Nam ph hp
cc tu du Aframax hat ng hiu qu, m bo hiu qu kinh t u t.
Cc i th mi tim n
S kin Vit Nam gia nhp vo t chc thng mi th gii cng vi s
ra i ca lut doanh nghip m rng cc thnh phn kinh t v chnh sch khuyn
khch u t, trong thi gian qua xut hin rt nhiu doanh nghip t nhn vn
ti xng du di dng cng ty c phn, cng ty trch nhim hu hn, cng ty lin
doanh, cng ty 100% vn u t nc ngoi. Cc cng ty ny s tr thnh nhng
i th ln trong vic chim lnh th phn vn ti xng du ti Vit Nam. Li th
ca cc cng ty t nhn l c ch thong, sn sng vn chuyn vi gi thnh thp,
c cu t chc tinh gn. Li th ca cng ty lin doanh hoc 100% vn nc ngoi
l h c li th l c nhiu kinh nghim trong cng vic vn chuyn xng du quc
t, cng tc marketing c thc hin ngay t nc ngoi, l i th tim n ln
trong th trng vn ti xng du c vn u t nc ngoi.
Sn phm thay th
Cuc khng hong v du m hin nay lm cho th gii ang i tm
gii php bo m an ninh nng lng. m bo cho an ninh nng lng trong
bi cnh du th ngy cng khan him, h in nay mt s nc ang pht trin ngun

44

nng lng thay th trong trong vic sn xut ethanol (cn cng nghip) t
cy ma v cc cht thi nng nghip khc rt c quan tm, tuy nhin cc quc
gia cn phi cn nhc gia vn an ninh lng thc v an ninh nng lng, mt
khc ngi ta ch ang tin hnh cc quc gia c nn nng nghip truyn thng
nh Brazil, Cuba, y c th xem l i th tim n cho chin lc vn ti xng du
ca Tcty, nu Vit Nam cng gii quyt vn nng lng ging nh cc nc
khc trn th gii.
Kh t l ngun nng lng quan trng ng th ba trong nn kinh
t th gii sau du m (chim 36,4% tng tiu th nng lng ton th gii) v than
(27,8%), hin nay v tr ca n ngy cng c tng cng, con s thng k cho
thy tng lng kh tiu th ton cu nm 2005 l 97 Tcf (2,75 nghn t m3 ) v nm
2007 khong 100 Tcf. Nu nm 1977 du m chim n 46,8% tng nng lng s
cp tiu th ton th gii th n 2005 ch cn chim 36,4% trong lc kh t
tng t 18,6% ln 23,5% v than gn nh gi nguyn t l 27,5%. Cc nc pht
trin v M l cc quc gia tiu th kh t ln nht chim n 74% nhu cu ton
cu, ring M chim 23%, kh t l loi nhin liu sch hn nhiu ln so vi than
hoc du m, tr lng cn di do v gi tng i r nn c li th ln. Tnh
n ngy 1/1/2006 tr lng kh t ton cu t 6.347,79 Tcf (179,82 t m3 ) tc l
cho nhu cu cho khong 65 nm i vi mc tiu th nh hin nay.
Trong cc nm gn y v hin nay gi du th gii ang tng cao t
bin, iu ny tr thnh nhn t quan trng cho kh t ln ngi, ngoi ra cc th
trng mi ni tuy cn nh v quy m nh Thailan, Philippine, Singapore v cc
nc trn bn o ng Dng cng dn tr thnh th trng tim nng, cng ch
trng thnh lp mt t chc OPEC v kh t do mt s nc xut khu ln cng
s gp phn quan trng kh t ln ngi trong nhng thp nin tip theo ca th
k 21 ny Tuy nhin chi ph khai thc v vn chuyn loi kh t nay vn cn
cao, cc nh my kh ho lng v cc nh my ti kh ho vic u t v xy dng
cn rt cao hn xy dng cc nh my lc du, cc thit b s dng kh t thay th

45

cho cc thit b s dng cc sn phm du cha i tr v ph bin, do khng

nh hng n vic u t tu Aframax ca Tcty.
2.4.3. Cc c hi v nguy c ca tng cng ty
Cc c hi
Ngoi ra nhu cu vn ti l mt trong cc yu t tc ng mnh n gi
tu. Bn cnh nhu cu vn ti tng, p lc v thi hn (nm 2010) m t chc IMO
yu cu loi b tt c cc tu v n khai thc cho nn gi tu giai on ny s bin
ng. Gi tu ng mi thc t khi nhn tu s cao hn do phi tnh thm li sut,
chi ph khc v ch tu ch c th nhn tu sau khi k hp ng t 3 6 thng.
Theo Clarkson Research Studies (ngy 18/3/2005) nhu cu vn ti xng
du nm 2004 tng khin i tu du th gii tng 5,5% trng ti so vi nm 2003.
ng thi Clarkson d bo tc tng trng kinh t th gii giai on 2005-2007
l 4,3% v Fearnley d bo tng nhu cu xng du th gii trung bnh 1,7%/nm
trong giai on 2005 - 2007. Vi t l d bo 1,7%/nm cng nng lc vn ti 2,2
t tn nm 2003 th nhu cu vn ti hng nm, s tng trung bnh khong: 2.200
triu tn x 1,7%/nm = 37,4 triu tn tu/nm.
Cn i nhu cu v nng lc ng tu th gii vi 32,9 triu DWT nm
2005; 37,7 triu DWT nm 2008 v 38,2 triu DWT nm 2009 cho thy nhu cu
vn ti lun cao hn nng lc ng tu mi ca cc nh my.
Trn y mi ch xem xt nhu cu ng tu di gc p ng nhu
cu vn ti m cha xt n nhu cu p ng thay th tu c. Theo yu cu mi ca
cng c MARPOL giai on 2010 v 2015 s c thay i rt ln trong c cu i
tu du th gii nhm m bo cc yu cu cng c. Theo yu cu ca IMO k
hoch thay th tu v n ca INTERTANKO c tng hp trong biu sau:

46

Hnh 2.9. Biu k hoch thay th i tu du trn th gii t 1991-2010

100
2010
26
80

49

17

D H share (%)

78

60
94
40

74
49

20

83

60

22
0

1991

1997

SH* share (%)

40

End 02 End 03 End 05 End 10

End 05, all tankers

built 1982 and earlier
gone
End 10, all tankers
built 1987 and earlier
gone
trading beyond 2010
s ubject to
adminis trations

Ngun: INTERTANKO, Tank Industry, 31/5/2004

Theo cc ch tu du lp k hoch ng mi t nm 2003 a s
tu du v kp t 60% tng trng ti vo cui 2003 ln 83% n cui 2010 v n
nm 2015 c 100% tu du th gii m bo yu cu cng c nh biu di
y:
Hnh 2.10. Biu k hoch thanh thi tu du v n n 2015
vt: triu DWT

70
60
50

MARPOL*
EU
OPA90

40
30
20
10

-2
00
2
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15

Phase out year

Ngun: INTERTANKO, Tank Industry, 31/5/2004

47

Vi tnh trng nh trn c th d bo n 2008 - 2010, trong iu kin

bnh thng s tu mi ng ra cha hon ton m bo nhu cu vn ti v thay th
tu thanh thi th s mt cn bng trong cung cu vn tn ti v duy tr mc cao.
Tuy nhin vi k hoch thanh thi tu v n sau 2010 gim xung th tnh trng
nng v nhu cu vn ti c th c ci thin sau nm 2010, trc khi chun b
cho thi im thay tu mi vo 2015. Do , y chnh l c hi ln cho Tcty. Bi
v hin nay s lng tu v kp hin rt t nc ta, v n nm 2010 s lng tu
tham gia vn chuyn xng du t nc ngoi v Vit Nam s gim i ng k, ch
cn c chy trong nc. Do , u t tu Aframax ti thi im ny l thch hp
nht.
Cc nguy c.
Do hin nay gi du tng cao, gi st thp cng tng theo dn n gi
tu trn th trng c th d bo l duy tr mc cao nh hin nay. D bo ny c
th c gii thch bng cc l do:
Gi thp ng tu vn tip tc tng v duy tr mc cao.
Bng 2.6. Bng gi thp th gii t 4/2007 n 6/2008
Hot
Hot
World
Rolled
Rolled
Steel
Prices
Steel Coil Steel Plate
USD/Ton
May-07
623
800
Jun-07
611
800
Jul-07
599
808
Aug-07
603
814
Sep-07
602
810
Oct-07
611
826
Nov-07
615
833
Dec-07
630
837
Jan-08
639
847
Feb-08
699
887
Mar-08
800
978
Apr-08
915
1065
May-08
998
1160
Jun-08
1073
1225
Ngun: MEPS Ltd thng 09/2008

Col d
Rolled

Steel
Wire

Medium
Steel

Steel Coil

Rod

Sections

696
686
681
686
673
680
688
705
716
772
890
985
1080
1144

606
602
590
594
580
584
584
598
621
687
758
852
920
1005

815
812
819
825
821
844
853
859
871
905
970
1042
1105
1184

48

Nhu cu nng lc vn ti tu du cn ang mc cao do s tu thanh

thi v ng mi cha hon ton cn bng. Tnh trng mt cn bng gia nng lc
v nhu cu vn ti vn tip tc din ra v ch c th gim dn sau nm 2010 v
chm dt sau nm 2015.
Bng 2.7. Nng lc ng tu du ca mt s nc trn th gii n 2009
vt: triu tn DWT
Japan
S.Korea
China
Europe
Others Total
2002
7.7
7.2
2.4
8.3
2.1
27.7
2003
8.0
7.5
3.0
8.6
2.2
29.3
2004
8.5
8.5
3.5
8.5
2.3
31.3
2005
9.0
9.5
4.0
8.0
2.4
32.9
2006
9.8
10.5
5.0
8.1
2.5
35.9
2007
10.0
11.0
5.5
7.3
2.5
36.3
2008
10.0
11.5
6.0
7.5
2.7
37.7
2009
9.0
13.0
6.5
7.0
2.7
38.2
Ngun: INTERTANKO
Theo Clarkson Research Studies (ngy 18/3/2005) nhu cu vn ti xng du nm
2004 tng khin i tu du th gii tng 5,5% trng ti so vi nm 2003, v
Fearnley d bo tng nhu cu xng du th gii trung bnh 1,7%/nm trong giai
on 2005 - 2006. Vi t l d bo 1,7%/nm cng nng lc vn ti 2.200 triu tn
nm 2003 th nhu cu vn ti hng nm, s tng trung bnh khong: 2.200 triu tn x
1,7%/nm = 37,4 triu tn tu/nm. Cn i nhu cu v nng lc ng tu th gii
nm 2007 l 36,3 triu DWT; nm 2008 l 37,7 triu DWT v nm 2009 l 38,2
triu DWT, iu ny cho thy nhu cu vn ti lun cao hn nng lc ng tu mi
ca cc nh my.
n giai on sau 2010 nhu cu thay th tu c tm n nh, do
vic ng mi trc nm 2010 tip tc b sung nhm p ng nhu cu vn ti v
mt phn thay th tu c. Khi gi tu trn th trng khi ph thuc ch yu
vo gi thnh tu ng mi (qua gi st thp v thit b) nn c xu hng n nh
vo sau nm 2010.
Tm li th trng tu du th gii bin ng khng theo mt quy lut
no tng t nh th trng xng du. Theo d bo ca INTERTANKO gi tu s

49

cn tip tc tng. Mi yu t l thuyt xc nh gi tu nh trc y u khng

th p dng c. Gi tu hin nay ch cn ph thuc nhiu vo nhu cu gia ngi
mua v ngi bn m ngi bn th ang nm quyn ch ng. Bn thn cc cng
ty vn ti xng du hin cng trong tnh trng kh x trong vic quyt nh bn
tu c v u t tu mi v khng chc chn s u t c mt con tu tng t
trong tng lai mt khi bn tu i. Do y chnh l nguy c cho chin lc
ca Tcty nu vic u t tu Aframax khng thc hin c.
2.5.

Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi ca tng cng ty (EFE)

T cc yu t c phn tch chng ta lp c ma trn nh gi phn ng

ca Tcty trc cc yu t mi trng bn ngoi theo ma trn EFE. C s cho

im v mc quan trng v phn loi trong ma trn l s kt hp gia l thuyt
v nhn nh ca cc chuyn gia c ly theo s ng lm nn tng tnh tng s
im quan trng cho ma trn a ra kt lun cui cng cho Tcty phn ng vi
mi trng nh th no.
Bng 2.8. Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn ngoi (EFE) ca tng cng ty
TT
I

Cc yu t bn ngoi

Mc
quan trng
ca cc yu
t

Phn
loi

S im
quan
trng

Mi trng v m
Yu t kinh t

Tc tng trng kinh t cao

0.05

0.20

0.05

0.15

Hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii lm

tng c hi v thch thc
Lm pht

0.04

0.12

Gi du th tng

0.04

0.08

Yu t chnh tr lut php

5

Tnh hnh chnh tr n nh

0.04

0.12

Php lut ngy cng hon chnh

0.04

0.12

Chnh ph quan tm n vic pht trin

vn ti ng bin

0.05

0.15

50

Yu t x hi t nhin v nhn khu

8

Nhu cu x hi ngy cng tng cao

0.03

0.09

iu kin t nhin thun li

0.05

0.15

Dn s ng

0.03

0.06

10

Yu t cng ngh
11

S pht trin ca cng ngh ng tu

0.05

0.15

12

nhim m i trng

0.03

0.06

II

Mi trng vi m
Yu t i th cnh tranh

13

Nhiu cng ty tham gia cnh tranh

0.10

0.20

14

S lin doanh lin kt

0.10

0.20

0.05

0.15

0.05

0.15

0.05

0.10

0.08

0.24

Yu t khch hng
15
16
17

18

Cng bng v bnh ng i vi mi

khch hng
Phc v khch hng tiu dng mi lc
mi ni
i vi khch hng vng su, vng xa
thc hin ch chnh sch y .
Yu t nh cung cp
Thun li khi c nhiu nh cung cp
Yu t cc i th tim n

19

Ngy cng nhiu cc cng ty vn ti

ng bin t nhn, nc ngoi tham
gia th trng.
Yu t sn phm thay th

0.04

0.12

20

Kh t ngy cng c s dng nhiu

0.03

0.06

Tng cng

1.00

2.67

Cc mc phn loi trn cho thy cch thc m trong cc chin lc ca

Tcty ng ph vi mi nhn t, vi mc 4 l phn ng tt nht, 3 v 2 l mc trung
bnh, 1 l km. Nh vy tng s quan im quan trng l 2.67 cho ta thy cc chin

51

lc ca Tcty vn dng c hi hin c ti thiu ha nhng nguy c c th c mi

e da t bn ngoi mc trn trung bnh.
2.6.

Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn trong ca tng cng ty (IFE)

Dng nh gi thc trng ca doanh nghip, nhn bit c cc im

mnh cng nh cc im yu nhm gip nh qun tr ca doanh nghip t a ra

nhng quyt nh ph hp v ng n. C s cho im v mc quan trng
v phn loi trong ma trn l s kt hp gia l thuyt v nhn nh ca cc chuyn
gia c ly theo s ng lm nn tng tnh tng s im quan trng cho ma trn
a ra kt lun cui cng v tnh hnh ni b ca Tcty nh th no.
Bng 2.9. Ma trn nh gi cc yu t bn trong (IFE) ca tng cng ty
TT

Cc yu t bn trong

Mc
quan trng
ca cc yu
t

Phn
loi

S
im
quan
trng

0.05

0.15

0.04

0.12

0.03

0.06

0.05

0.15

0.05

0.10

0.05

0.15

0,04

0.08

0.06

0.24

Yu t v ngun nhn lc
1
2

3
4
5

6
7
8

Ban lnh o Tcty c trnh chuyn

mn v c nng lc qun l
Cn b lnh o cc phng ban c
trnh chuyn mn v gn b vi
Tcty
Trnh qun l cc phng ban chuyn
mn cn hn ch.
Cn b k thut qun l i tu c
chuyn mn tt
Thu th c tay ngh cao, c o to
chnh quy theo tiu chun hng hi
quc t t.
Cng tc tuyn dng v o to thy
th mi cha tt.
Trnh ngoi ng thu th cn km
Yu t v cng ngh
i tu hin hu ca Tcty c trang

52

9
10
11

12

13
14

15
16
17

18
19
20
21

b cng ngh tin tin

Yu t v ngun vn
Hiu qu s dng vn tt
C kh nng huy ng vn pht
trin i tu
Ngun vn u t cho i tu cng
ngh hin i ph hp mi trng cn
t
Yu t v qun l

0.06
0.05

3
3

0.18
0.15

0.05

0.10

Qun l sn xut theo m hnh trc

tuyn chc nng. Gim c nm vng
tnh hnh ca doanh nghip
Phng php d bo xy dng k
hoch hng nm cha thc t
Cng tc qun l tu theo lut hng hi
quc t cn km
Yu t v marketing
Tcty c thng hiu truyn thng lu
i
Tcty xy dng c thng hiu i
vi nc ngoi.
Chin lc marketing m rng th
trng cha tt
Yu t v vn ha

0.06

0.18

0.04

0.08

0.04

0.12

0.06

0.24

0.03

0.12

0.03

0.06

Phong cch lnh o tp trung dn ch

Tinh thn lm vic ca nhn vin tt
Mi quan h gia cc phng ban ca
Tcty cha tht s chc ch
Chu s qun l ca nh nc
Tng cng

0.06
0.05
0.04

3
3
2

0.18
0.15
0.08

0.06
1.0

0.18
2.87

Tng s im ca Tcty l 2.87 im > 2.5 im, gn mc trung bnh. iu

c ngha l Tcty cn phi xem xt li cc vn ni b bn trong doanh nghip.
Nht l trong chin lc marketing pht trin th trng, xy dng thng hiu
nc ngoi, trong vn gii quyt nhn s, xy dng vn ho Tcty v u t v

53

pht trin i tu c cng ngh tin tin. Tcty cn phi tng cng trnh chuyn
mn ca cn b qun l, to dng mt mi tng lm vic tt, ci m trong n v.
Bn cnh pht huy nhng th mnh l c i ng cn b k thut c trnh
chuyn mn cao, i ng thy th lnh ngh c kh nng lm vic tt trn cc con
tu hin i v c kh nng huy ng ngun vn ln cho chin lc pht trin i
tu ca Tcty.
2.7.

Ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh ca tng cng ty

nh gi nng lc cnh tranh ca Tcty i vi cc cng ty vn ti xng

du trong ngnh, chng ta s dng ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh. C s cho im

v mc quan trng v trng s trong ma trn l s kt hp gia l thuyt v nhn
nh ca cc chuyn gia c ly theo s ng lm nn tng tnh tng s im cho
ma trn a ra kt lun cui cng v nng lc cnh tranh Tcty so vi cc i th
cnh tranh trong cng ngnh nh th no.
Bng 2.10. Ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh ca tng cng ty

TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Cc yu t thnh
cng
Nm vng th trng
vn ti xng du
trong nc
Tm hiu th trng
vn ti xng du khu
vc
Kh nng huy ng
vn cho vic pht
trin i tu
Doanh thu v li
nhun
nh v thng hiu

Mc

quan
trng
0.12

Tng cng ty
Cng ty U
Cng ty PDC
xng du
LC
Vit Nam
Trng im Trng im Trng im
s
s
s
3
0.36
3
0.36
3
0.36

0.08

0.24

0.24

0.24

0.14

0.42

0.42

0.28

0.10

0.20

0.20

0.30

0.08

0.24

0.16

0.16

Kh nng cnh tranh 0.10

v th phn
Nng lc qun l v 0.08
vn hnh i tu th
h mi

0.30

0.20

0.20

0.24

0.16

0.16

54

8
9
10

C cu qun l linh 0,10

hot
i ng thy th 0.08
c o to chnh
quy
Nng lc vn ti
0.12
Tng cng

1.00

0.20

0.30

0.30

0.24

0.24

0.16

0.36

0.24

0.24

2.80

2.52

2.40

Qua phn tch ma trn hnh nh cnh tranh, kt qu tng s im ca mi

cng ty chng ta c th xp hng th t cc i th cnh tranh nh sau: Tcty xng
du Vit Nam, cng ty c phn vn ti sn phm du m Phng ng, cng ty c
phn u Lc. Nh vy ti thi im ny nng lc cnh tranh ca Tcty l ln nht,
cc i th cnh tranh cha tim lc cnh tranh vi Tcty, tuy nhin thng
qua cc yu t trn ma trn chng ta c th thy c cu t chc ca Tcty hot ng
cha hiu qu v t sut li nhun trn doanh thu cha cao hn i th cnh tranh,
t cn hon chnh hn v c cu t chc, cng tc qun l, mt vn cn
phi lu l chng ta cha so snh c vi cc cng ty lin doanh hoc cng ty c
vn 100% nc ngoi do khng th ly c s liu c nn y cng c th xem
l i th cnh tranh tim n cn phi quan tm n.
2.8.

Ma trn SWOT
Qua phn tch cc yu t mi trng v m, cc yu t mi trng vi m,

nng lc cnh tranh, thng qua cc ma trn EFE, ma trn IFE, ma trn hnh nh
cnh tranh cho php chng ta pht ha ma trn SWOT nhm khi nim c cc
chin lc ca Tcty.

55

Bng 2.11. Ma trn SWOT ca tng cng ty

C HI
(OPPORTUNITIES-O)

SWOT

IM MNH
(STRENGTH-S)
S1. ang chim lnh th
trng nhiu nht.
S2. S hu i tu th h
mi m bo cc tiu
chun mi trng.
S3. Thng hiu c
truyn thng lu i,
ngi tiu dng d dng

E D0
(THREATEN-T)

O1. Nhu cu vn ti trn T1.i tu trn th gii

ngy cng tng. Gia nhp
th gii ngy cng tng..
WTO to iu kin cho
O2. Nhu cu tiu th xng i th tim n tham gia
du trong nc ngy cng th trng d dng hn.
tng, dn n nhu cu vn
T2. nhim mi trng,
ti ngy cng tng.
lm cho cc quy nh bo
O3. Thc hin cng c v mi trng ngy cng
Marpol 73/78, thanh thi kh khn hn.
tu v n n nm 2010.
T3. Lm pht tng cao,
O4. Chnh ph khuyn nhu cu s gim.
khch v to iu kin pht
trin vn ti ng bin.
T4. Gi du tng cao, lm
cc vn chuyn tng, gi
O5. Vn ti du th cho thp tng dn n gi
cc nh my lc du.
ng mi tu tng theo.
O6. Tng vng quay vn
ti khi kho xng du ngoi
quan Vn Phong hot
ng.

T5. m bo an ninh
nng lng, nhiu sn
phm thay th ang e
do .

KT HP S + O

KT HP S + T

S1, S2, S3, S4, S5 + O1,

O2,O3,O4,O5,O6: Pht
trin i tu mi vi cc
li th, vic huy ng vn
d dng kt hp vi nhu
cu tiu th xng du th
gii v trong nc tng, u
i ca chnh ph cho mt
trong nhng ngnh kinh t
mi nhn hin nay (chin
lc pht trin i tu
vi phng n mua tu

S1, S2, S3, S5 +

T1,T4: Lin doanh lin
kt vi cc cng ty hin
hu c tim lc mnh
nhm i ph vi cc i
th tim n, gi ng mi
tu tng (chin lc pht
trin i tu vi phng
n lin doanh )
S1, S2, S3, S4, S5+ T1
,T2,T3,T5: a dng ho

56

nhn bit.

mi )

S2 , S4 , S5 + O5 , O6:
Nghin cu pht trin i
tu mi a nng p
ng nhu cu vn ti a
dng (chin lc pht
trin i tu vi phng
S5. Nng lc cnh tranh n mua tu a nng
tt.
mi).
S4. D dng huy ng
vn do hot ng kinh
doanh c hiu qu, pht
trin th trng tim nng
mi.

IM YU
(WEAKNESS ES-W)

KT HP W + O

W2,W3,W4+O1,O2,O3:
W1. C cu t chc cha Tng cng cng tc
marketing, d bo kt hp
linh hot.
vi nhu cu tiu th xng
W2. Cng tc d bo du th gii, trong nc
cha chnh xc.
gia tng(chin lc pht
trin i tu vi phng
W3. Cng tc qung co n thu tu nh hn ).
cha thng xuyn.
W1,W2,W3,W5,W6+
W4. Ngun vn cho vic O1,O2,O3,O4:Tngcng
u t pht trin i tu cng tc o to nghip v
cn hn ch.
chuyn mn trong mi
W5. Trnh ngoi ng trng mi kt hp vi
nhu cu tiu th, cc chnh
thy th cn km.
sch lin quan( chin lc
W6. Chu s qun l ca ti cu trc li c cu t
chc ).
nh nc.

2.9

i tu a nng, cng
ngh mi m bo cc
quy nh v mi trng,
c th vn ti c cc
loi sn phm a dng
ca du m do khng
hong du m nn ngy
cng c nhiu sn phm
thay th e do. (chin
lc pht trin i tu
vi phng n mua tu
a nng mi).
KT HP W + T
W1,W2,W3,W5,W6
+T2,T3,T5:Ti cu trc
li c cu t chc, o to
li i ng nhn vin,
thu th c trnh tay
ngh cao ph hp vi yu
cu hin nay ( chin lc
ti cu trc li c cu t
chc )
W1,W2,W3,W5,W6+
T1,T2,T3,T5:y mnh
cng tc marketing, hon
thin cng tc d bo
m bo thi im u t
i tu l hp l ( chin
lc marketing ).

Ma trn QSPM.
Vic la chn chin lc c quyt nh trn c s s dng ma trn hoch

nh chin lc c th nh lng ( QSPM ). Ma trn QSPM cho php ta c th

nh gi khch quan cc chin lc c th thay th t la chn chin lc
ph hp. C s cho im phn loi ging nh cch cho trong ma trn EFE, s
im hp dn trong ma trn l s kt hp gia l thuyt v nhn nh ca cc

57

chuyn gia c ly theo s ng lm nn tng tnh tng s im hp dn cho ma

trn a ra kt lun cui cng cho Tcty chn la chin lc ph hp .
Bng 2.12. Ma trn QSPM (Nhm S +O)
Cc chin lc c th thay th

Cc yu t quan trng

chin lc
pht trin
i tu vi
phng n
mua tu
mi

chin lc
pht trin
i tu vi
phng n
mua tu a
nng mi

AS

TAS

AS

TAS

12

12

12

12

Phn
loi

Cc yu t bn trong
1/ Ban lnh o cng ty c trnh chuyn
mn v c nng lc qun l
2/ Trnh qun l cc phng ban chuyn
mn cn hn ch.
3/ Cng tc tuyn dng v o to thu th
mi cha tt.
4/ i tu hin hu ca Tcty c trang b
cng ngh tin tin.
5/ Ngun vn t c u t cho i tu
cng ngh hin i ph hp mi trng cn
t.
6/ Qun l sn xut theo m hnh trc
tuyn chc nng. Gim c nm vng tnh
hnh ca doanh nghip.
7/. Phng php d bo xy dng k hoch
hng nm cha thc t.
8/ Tng cng ty c thng hiu truyn
thng lu i.
9/ Tng cng ty xy dng c thng
hiu i vi nc ngoi.

58

10/ Chin lc marketing m rng th

trng cha tt.
11/ Tinh thn lm vic ca nhn vin tt

1/ Tc tng trng kinh t cao

12

16

2/ Hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii lm

tng c hi v thch thc

12

3/ Lm pht

4/ Gi du th tng

5/ Tnh hnh chnh tr n nh

6/ Chnh ph quan tm n vic pht trin

vn ti ng bin
7/ iu kin t nhin thun li

12

8/ nhim mi trng

9/ Thun li c nhiu nh cung cp

12

10/ Ngy cng nhiu cc cng ty vn ti

ng bin t nhn, nc ngoi tham gia
th trng.
11/ Kh t ngy cng c s dng nhiu.

12

12/ Mi quan h gia cc phng ban ca

cng ty cha tht s chc ch
Cc yu t bn ngoi

12/ Phc v khch hng tiu dng mi lc

mi ni.

184

Tng cng
AS: s im hp dn

TAS: tng s im hp dn

195

59

Bng 2.13. Ma trn QSPM (Nhm S+T)

Cc chin lc c th thay th

Cc yu t quan trng

Chin lc
pht trin
i tu:
phng n
lin doanh

Chin lc
pht trin
i tu:
phng n
mua tu a
nng

AS

TAS

AS

TAS

12

12

12

12

12

12

Phn
loi

Cc yu t bn trong
1/ Ban lnh o Tcty c trnh chuyn
mn v c nng lc qun l
2/ Trnh qun l cc phng ban chuyn
mn cn hn ch.
3/ Cng tc tuyn dng v o to thu th
mi cha tt.
4/ i tu hin hu ca Tcty c trang b
cng ngh tin tin.
5/ Ngun vn t c u t cho i tu
cng ngh hin i ph hp mi trng cn
t.
6/ Qun l sn xut theo m hnh trc tuyn
chc nng. Gim c nm vng tnh hnh ca
doanh nghip.
7/. Phng php d bo xy dng k hoch
hng nm cha thc t.
8/ Tng cng ty c thng hiu truyn thng
lu i.
9/ Tng cng ty xy dng c thng
hiu i vi nc ngoi.
10/ Chin lc marketing m rng th trng
cha tt.
11/ Tinh thn lm vic ca nhn vin tt

60

12/ Mi quan h gia cc phng ban ca

Tcty cha tht s chc ch

1/ Tc tng trng kinh t cao

12

16

2/ Hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii lm tng

c hi v thch thc
3/ Lm pht

12

4/ Gi du th tng

5/ Tnh hnh chnh tr n nh

6/ Chnh ph quan tm n vic pht trin

vn ti ng bin

7/ iu kin t nhin thun li

8/ nhim mi trng

9/ Thun li c nhiu nh cung cp

10/ Ngy cng nhiu cc cng ty vn ti

ng bin t nhn, nc ngoi tham gia th
trng.
11/ Kh t ngy cng c s dng nhiu.

12

12/ Phc v khch hng tiu dng mi lc

mi ni.

Cc yu t bn ngoi

Tng cng

185

195

61

Bng 2.14. Ma trn QSPM (Nhm W+O)

Cc chin lc c th thay th

Cc yu t quan trng

chin lc
pht trin
i tu vi
phng n
thu tu
nh hn

chin lc
ti cu trc
li c cu t
chc

AS

TAS

AS

TAS

12

12

12

12

Phn
loi

Cc yu t bn trong
1/ Ban lnh o Tcty c trnh chuyn
mn v c nng lc qun l
2/ Trnh qun l cc phng ban chuyn
mn cn hn ch.
3/ Cng tc tuyn dng v o to thu th
mi cha tt.
4/ i tu hin hu ca Tcty c trang b
cng ngh tin tin.
5/ Ngun vn t c u t cho i tu
cng ngh hin i ph hp mi trng cn
t.
6/ Qun l sn xut theo m hnh trc
tuyn chc nng. Gim c nm vng tnh
hnh ca doanh nghip.
7/. Phng php d bo xy dng k hoch
hng nm cha thc t.
8/ Tng cng ty c thng hiu truyn
thng lu i.
9/ Tng cng ty xy dng c thng
hiu i vi nc ngoi.
10/ Chin lc marketing m rng th
trng cha tt.
11/ Tinh thn lm vic ca nhn vin tt

62

12/ Mi quan h gia cc phng ban ca

Tcty cha tht s chc ch

1/ Tc tng trng kinh t cao

16

12

2/ Hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii lm

tng c hi v thch thc
3/ Lm pht

4/ Gi du th tng

5/ Tnh hnh chnh tr n nh

6/ Chnh ph quan tm n vic pht trin

vn ti ng bin

7/ iu kin t nhin thun li

8/ nhim mi trng

9/ Thun li c nhiu nh cung cp

10/ Ngy cng nhiu cc cng ty vn ti

ng bin t nhn, nc ngoi tham gia
th trng.
11/ Kh t ngy cng c s dng nhiu.

Cc yu t bn ngoi

12/ Phc v khch hng tiu dng mi lc

mi ni.
Tng cng

176

188

63

Bng 2.15. Ma trn QSPM (Nhm W+T)

Cc chin lc c th thay th

Cc yu t quan trng

chin lc
ti cu trc
li c cu t
chc

chin lc
marketing

AS

TAS

AS

TAS

16

12

16

12

12

Phn
loi

Cc yu t bn trong
1/ Ban lnh o Tcty c trnh chuyn
mn v c nng lc qun l
2/ Trnh qun l cc phng ban chuyn
mn cn hn ch.
3/ Cng tc tuyn dng v o to thu th
mi cha tt.
4/ i tu hin hu ca Tcty c trang b
cng ngh tin tin.
5/ Ngun vn t c u t cho i tu
cng ngh hin i ph hp mi trng cn
t.
6/ Qun l sn xut theo m hnh trc
tuyn chc nng. Gim c nm vng tnh
hnh ca doanh nghip.
7/. Phng php d bo xy dng k hoch
hng nm cha thc t.
8/ Tng cng ty c thng hiu truyn
thng lu i.
9/ Tng cng ty xy dng c thng
hiu i vi nc ngoi.
10/ Chin lc marketing m rng th
trng cha tt.
11/ Tinh thn lm vic ca nhn vin tt

64

12/ Mi quan h gia cc phng ban ca

Tcty cha tht s chc ch

1/ Tc tng trng kinh t cao

12

12

2/ Hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii lm

tng c hi v thch thc
3/ Lm pht

4/ Gi du th tng

5/ Tnh hnh chnh tr n nh

6/ Chnh ph quan tm n vic pht trin

vn ti ng bin

7/ iu kin t nhin thun li

8/ nhim mi trng

9/ Thun li c nhiu nh cung cp

10/ Ngy cng nhiu cc cng ty vn ti

ng bin t nhn, nc ngoi tham gia
th trng.
11/ Kh t ngy cng c s dng nhiu.

Cc yu t bn ngoi

12/ Phc v khch hng tiu dng mi lc

mi ni.
Tng cng

188

186

Thng qua ma trn QSPM cho chng ta thy cc chin lc c tng s im

hp dn v t c th ra quyt nh chn la chin lc ph hp i vi Tcty nh
sau:

65

Nhm kt hp S+O: chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n mua tu

mi c tng s im hp dn l 184; chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n
mua tu a nng mi c tng s im hp dn l 195.
Nhm kt hp S+T: chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n lin
doanh c tng s im hp dn l 185; chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n
mua tu a nng c tng s im hp dn l 195.
Nhm kt hp W+O: chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n thu
tu nh hn c tng s im hp dn l 176; chin lc ti cu trc li c cu t
chc c tng s im hp dn l 188.
Nhm kt hp W+T: chin lc ti cu trc c cu t chc c tng s
im hp dn l 188 ; chin lc marketing c tng s im hp dn l 186.
T nhng kt qu trn , chng ta s chn cc chin lc sau y pht
trin i tu:
Chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n mua tu a nng.
Chin lc marketing.
Chin lc ti cu trc li c cu t chc.
2.10. lch gia gi thu v gi cc vn ti khi pht trin i tu
Gi thu tu Aframax:
C nhiu thng tin tng hp v mc gi thu tu trn v thu tu nh hn
cho th trng tu du, trong c tu Aframax. Theo kin nh gi d bo tnh
hnh chung trn th trng nm 2007 c chiu hng thp hn nm 2006 cht t do
c s tng thm mt s tu ng mi tham gia th trng vn ti, khin chnh lch
cung cu gim i. iu khin mc gi thu cc loi tu u c xu hng
chung l gim. Tuy nhin n 2009 2010 th nhu cu vn ti c v ln hn kh
nng p ng do tip tc c thm nhiu tu b thanh thi khin th trng thu tu
tr nn si ng hn v gi thu tng d bo s tr li v t mc cao hn gi thu
nm 2006.

66

V mc gi v thi hn thu trn tu Aframax c th hin nay trn th

trng c Capital Shipbrokers LTd tng hp thng 3/2007 nh sau:
Bng 2.16. Mc gi thu trn tu Aframax
Tu ng mi

Tu mi mua li

Tu 5 tui (thu 15

Tu 10 tui (Thu

thu trn 20 nm

thu trn 20 nm

nm)

trn 10 nm)

(ch 3 4 nm )

(thu ngay)
18.688 USD/ngy

14.988 USD/ngy

18.286 USD/ngy 21.135 USD/ngy

Ngun Capital Ship-brokers LTd thng 3/2007

Mc gi thu tu trn ch yu c tnh trn c s chi ph vn u t v li
nhun ca ch u t m cha phn nh hiu qu khai thc v qun l con tu.
V mc gi thu nh hn ( tnh thm chi ph qun l) mt s tu
Aframax c 105.000 110.000 DWT c th c tng hp u nm 2007:
Bng 2.17. Mc gi thu nh hn tu Aframax
Tu
Nm Ngi thu
Thi gian
ng
giao tu
Alinissos
2004 Shell
1/03/2007
Cido Shipping
2007 Teekay
1/04/2007
Maersk Pointer
2001 Teekay
1/04/2007
Ngun: Capital Ship-brokers LTd thng 3/2007

Thi hn
thu
3 nm
12 thng
5 nm

Gi thu
(USD/ ngy)
27.000
30.000
25.000

ng thi tham kho tng hp mc gi thu nh hn tu du thi hn 3 nm

trung bnh trong 4 nm 2003 - 2006 ca Clarkson ng trn Shipping Intelligence s
cui nm 2006 cho thy mc gi thu nh hn tu Aframax mi trong giai on
2005 - 2006 (l giai on gi thu tu du trn th trng bt u thay i theo
chiu hng tng) khong 28.500 USD/ngy.
Vi m c tiu u t ch hng cho Tcty l di hn nn trong qu trnh tnh
ton hiu qu kinh t cho vic u t, nn ly mc gi thu nh hn 3 nm trung
bnh theo d bo ca McQuilling cho giai on 2007 2011 l 35.833 USD/ ngy
v giai on 2005 2006 l 28.500 USD/ngy ca Clarkson nh sau:
(35.833 USD/ ngy + 28.500 USD/ ngy)/ 2 =

32.000 USD/ngy.

67

Chi ph khai thc v qun l c xc nh da vo cc d kin chnh sau:

Thi gian khai thc:
Chn tuyn chnh l Trung ng -Vit Nam v Tcty c bn hng ang giao
dch mua bn hng l Kuwait. Da vo thit k my tu, khong cch Kuwait Vit
Nam, thi gian nhn hng v thi gian tr hng, d tnh tng thi gian trung bnh l
38ngy/chuyn khp kn. m bo an ton Tcty chn: 38ngy/chuyn,
9chuyn/nm (350ngy/nm) lm c s tnh ton.
Lng hng ch trung bnh mi chuyn:
thun li cho tnh ton chn nng sut ch hng bng 83% dung tch
thit k c tu c sc cha trung bnh (120.000 m3 ), tng ng 105.000
m3 /chuyn = 87.500 tn du DO =

650.000 thng/chuyn.

n gi nhin liu trung bnh:

Do tu hot ng trn tuyn Trung ng - Vit nam nn d n ly n gi nhin
liu khu vc Trung ng tnh, do gi du th hin nay bin ng do ta ly
mc gi trung bnh c th gi FO l 320 USD/tn v gi DO l 613 USD/tn. Mc
gi ny cng ph hp vi nh gi ca McQuilling trong bng di y, ng trong
tp ch Tanker Market Outlook 2007 - 2011 (s thng 1/2007), theo mc gi du
FO nm 2007 khong 318 USD/tn.
Bng 2.18. n gi nhin liu chy my giai on 2001 2007.

Ngun worldscale Associaton, McQuilling

Chi ph qun l tu:

68

Chi ph thu cng ty nc ngoi (Thomeship ManagementCo.Ltd)

qun l k thut v thuyn vin:

170.000 USD/nm

Chi ph qun l ca Tcty:

250.000 USD/nm

Lng, cc chi ph khc:

840.000 USD/nm.

Chi ph sa cha nh v bo dng (ph thuc tui tu):

- Nm tu 1 tui: c bo hnh.
- Nm th 2-3 :

150.000 USD/nm.

- Nm th 4-5 :

200.000 USD/nm.

- Nm tu 6-9 :

250.000 USD/nm.

- Nm tu 10-15:

300.000 USD/nm.

- Nm tu 16-25:

350.000 USD/nm.

Chi ph hng sa cha ln (ph thuc tui tu):

- Ln ln th 1 (tu 2,5 tui) :

400.000 USD.

- Ln ln th 2 (tu 5 tui) :

800.000 USD.

- Ln ln th 3 (tu 7,5 tui) :

1.000.000 USD.

- Ln ln ln 4 (tu 10 tui) :

1.250.000 USD.

- Ln ln ln 5 (tu 12,5 tui):

1.500.000 USD.

- Ln ln ln 6 (tu 15 tui) :

1.500.000 USD.

- Ln ln ln 7 (tu 17,5 tui) :

1.500.000 USD.

- Ln ln ln 8 (tu 20 tui) :

1.250.000 USD.

- Ln ln 9 (tu 22,5 tui)

1.000.000USD.

Chi ph du bi trn lm trn:

170.000 USD/nm.

- Cho my chnh hot ng 1 nm l 16.250 USD x 9 chuyn

(trung bnh trong 1 nm) (xem ph lc):
- Cho cc my ph (xem ph lc):

146.250 USD/nm.
21.500 USD/nm

Chi ph bo him tu: bo him thn tu v bo him P&I

- Tu t 0 - 5 tui: bo him thn tu mc 0,8% x gi tr tu ng
mi: 0,8% x 70.000.000 USD) =

560.000 USD/nm.

- Tu 5 - 10 tui: gi tr trung bnh 60.000.000 USD, nn bo him l:

69

1,05% x 60.000.000 USD =

630.000 USD/nm.

- Tu 10 - 20 tui: gi tr trung bnh l 40.000.000 USD/nm, nn bo

him:1,05% x 40.000.000 USD =

420.000 USD/nm.

- Tu trn 20 tui: gi tr trung bnh l 15.000.000 USD, nn bo

him:1,05% x 15.000.000 =

158.000 USD/nm.

- Mc ph Bo him P&I c tnh theo tn ng k (GRT) ca tu

c nh sau: 4,4 USD/ GRT x 60.000 GRT =

264.000 USD/nm.

Tng cng ph bo him trung bnh hng nm ca cc phng n nh sau:

- tu t 0 - 5 tui: 560.000 + 264.000 =

824.000 USD/nm

- tu 5 - 10 tui:

630.000 + 264.000 =

894.000 USD/nm

- tu 11 - 20 tui: 420.000 + 264.000 =

684.000 USD/nm

- tu trn 20 tui: 158.000 + 264.000 =

422.000 USD/nm

Chi ph nhin liu:

- Nhin liu FO tiu th cho my chnh (18.000 HP) :
52 tn/ngy x 320 USD/tn x 38 ngy/chuyn 435.000 USD/chuyn.
- Nhin liu tiu th cho my pht in:

510.000 USD/nm.

Chi ph nhin liu cc my ph hot ng l

67.500USD/chuyn.

Chi ph phc v tu hot ng ti 2 u bn (cng ph, hoa tiu, lai d t,

i l v cc dch v khc) khong

70.000 USD/chuyn

- Chi ph ti u cng Vit Nam

20.000 USD/chuyn

- Chi ph ti cng Trung ng

50.000 USD/chuyn

Cc chi ph khc (nc ngt phc v chy ni hi, v sinh, mi trng,

an ton v nhiu chi ph vt khc):

30.000 USD/chuyn

Sau khi khai thc n ht i d n con tu s c thanh l bn di dng

ct ph. Do gi tr con tu bn ct ph ln nn d n xc nh y l mt trong cc
d liu u vo khi tnh ton hiu qu u t. Gi tr con tu khi ct ph c tnh
da trn t trng ca con tu v n gi mua ct ph, nh sau:
Gi tu bn ct ph (USD) = LDT x n gi (USD/ GT).

70

trong : LTD l tn t trng ca con tu. Vi tu ch du trng ti 100.000 DWT

thng c LTD = 20.000 tn.
Theo tng hp u nm 2007 ca Capital Sh ipbrokers Ltd th gi ct ph tu
du ln mc trung bnh 435 USD/tn. Nn tm ly mc gi ct ph tu du tng
ng gi u nm 2007 lm mc trung bnh cho tnh ton. Nh vy gi tr con
tu sau khi bn ct ph l: 20.000 tn x 435 USD/tn =

8.7000.000 USD

Tng hp cc chi ph qun l v khai thc tu Aframax theo n v nm hoc

chuyn vn ti, lm c s u vo tnh ton hiu qu kinh t khi u t pht trin
i tu, c tng hp trong bng di y. Cc s liu ny c lm trn tin
cho tnh ton.
Bng 2.19. Bng tng hp n gi chi ph qun l v khai thc tu Aframax
Tt
I.

Ni dung

USD/nm

Chi ph qun l k thut v thuyn

vin

1. Qun l thuyn vin

840.000

2. Sa cha nh, bo dng

theo tui tu

3. Sa cha ln

theo tui tu

4. Du bi trn

170.000

5. Bo him: Thn tu v P&I

6. Qun l ph ca cng ty
II.

USD/chuyn.

theo tui tu
250.000

Chi ph khai thc

1. Nhin liu my chnh

2. My pht in

435.000
510.000

3. Nhin liu cc my ph

67.500

4. Chi ph cng d hng Vit Nam

20.000

5. Chi ph cng xp hng Trung ng

50.000

6. Cc chi ph khc

30.000

71

xc nh cc ch tiu kinh t da trn c s phn tch tng chi ph c th

khi khai thc tu Aframax, ta lp bng tnh di y.
Cc cng thc tnh s dng trong bng c tng hp nh sau:
Bng 2.20.Cng thc tnh cc ch s kinh t qun l v khai thc
Stt

Nm d n

n v

Cng thc tnh

Chi ph qun l

Chi ph qun l TV

USD/nm

Theo s liu ti bng 2.19

Sa cha nh, bo dng

USD/nm

Theo s liu ti bng 2.19

Ln , sa cha ln

USD/nm

Theo s liu ti bng 2.19

Bo him thn tu v P&I

USD/nm

Theo s liu ti bng 2.19

e.

Du bi trn cc loi

USD/nm

Theo s liu ti bng 2.19

Qun l ph ca cng ty

USD/nm

Theo s liu ti bng 2.19

Cng chi ph qun l

g/s ngy tu

USD

1a + 1 b + 1c + 1d + 1e + 1f

thng

650.000 x (ngy nm t/38)

Nng sut vn ti/ nm

Chi ph vn

Gi tu

USD

Ti thi im mua

Khu hao c bn (15 nm )

USD

Gi tu / s nm khu hao

Li vay ngn hng

USD/nm

Vn vay v vn t c x 8.0%

USD

3a + 3 b + 3c
Chi ph qun l + chi ph vn

Cng chi ph vn

Tng vn v qun l ph

USD

n gi thu tu nh hn

USD/ ngy

Doanh thu

USD/nm

Ngy nm t * (5)

Li trc thu

USD/nm

(6) - (4)

Thu DN (28%)

USD/nm

(7) * 28%

Li rng

USD/nm

(7) - (8)

10
11

Gi tr u t v thanh l
Thu hi rng

USD
USD

Theo mc trung bnh 32.000

75 triu USD (nm 1) v 8,7

triu USD (nm cu i).
(3b) + (3c) + (9)

72

Kt qu tnh ( xem ph lc ) cho thy:

- Chi ph qun l tu trung bnh:

8.549 USD/ngy.

- Chi ph vn trung bnh:

14.676 USD/ngy.

- Chi ph vn v qun l:

23.225 USD/ ngy.

- T sut ni hon (IRR):

11,15 %

- Thi gian hon vn:

14,3 nm

- Gi tr NPV (sau 25 nm):

13.180.902 USD.

- Gi tr thu hi (NPV + gi bn ct st vn):

21.880.902 USD.

Trn c s bng tnh v kt qu tng hp trn, i chiu vi mt s ch tiu

kinh t qun l, khai thc tu Aframax do McQuilling a ra c th rt ra mt s
kt lun nh sau:
2.10.1. Chi ph qun l v khai thc
Trong bng tng hp chi ph qun l tu du do McQuilling a ra trong tp
ch Tanker Market Outlook 2007 - 2011, s thng 1/2007. Theo tu Aframax c
chi ph trung bnh 7.500 USD/ngy (bao gm c chi ph sa cha ln) v tng mc
ph qun l hng nm l 2.372.500 USD, trong khi kt qu tnh chi ph qun l
tu ca Tcty l 8.549 USD/ ngy v tng ph qun l trung bnh nm khong gn 3
triu USD.
L do l Tcty tng mt s chi ph hng nm theo t l trt gi; chi ph 2
u bn ca McQuilling l 87.500 USD/chuyn, trong khi ca cng ty l 90.000
USD/chuyn; chi ph bo him a ra ph hp vi bn cho v cch tnh ca cng
ty c phn bo him Petrolimex (PJICO), trong thc t cc cng ty qun l thng
cn nhc v mua vi mc bo him thp t hiu qu qun l.
Kt qu xc nh chi ph qun l trung bnh ngy v tng chi ph qun l
trung bnh hng nm ca Tcty l ph hp vi nhu cu m bo duy tr tnh trng k
thut ca con tu trong thi gian di. iu m bo cho d n c hiu qu v kh
nng cnh tranh trn th trng, khi a tu tham gia th trng vn ti.
2.10.2.T sut ni hon (IRR)

73

Mc d t sut ni hon khi khai thc tu l 11,15% th p hn ca

McQuilling nhng cao hn li vay. Vi IRR = 10,63% > 8.0%, do Tcty hon
ton c kh nng tr vn cng li vay v c hiu qu. L do IRR thp hn so vi
McQuilling do li vay d n tnh mc 8%/nm trong khi MacQuilling ch tnh
6%/nm.
2.10.3. Thi gian hon vn
Thi gian hon vn khi u t tu Aframax l 14,3 nm sm hn so vi thi
gian d kin 15 nm. iu cho thy vic u t tu c tnh kh thi.
2.10.4. So snh chi ph vn vi gi cho thu tu trn
Cng ty mua li tu ng mi vi v n ph trung bnh l 14.676 USD/ngy v
cho thu tu trn vi mc ph 21.135 USD/ ngy (theo tng kt ca Capital
Shipbroker nu bng 2.15) s c li trung bnh:
21.135USD/ngy 14.676USD/ ngy =

6.459 SD/ngy.

2.10.5. So snh tng chi ph qun l v vn ph vi gi thu nh hn

Theo tnh ton tng chi ph qun l v vn khi a tu vo hot ng kinh
doanh l 23.225 USD/ ngy. So vi mc gi thu nh hn trung bnh 32.000
USD/ ngy th s c li: 32.000 USD/ngy - 23.225 USD/ ngy = 8.775 USD/ ngy.
Nu so vi phng n cho thu tu trn th phng n u t ny hiu qu
hn (cao hn 2.316 USD/ ngy) do c s tham gia qun l ca Tcty. y cng l
yu t khuyn khch Tcty tham gia qun l con tu sau khi u t.
2.10.6. Chi ph vn ti trung bnh
c thm c s xc nh an ton khi u t, gi s Tcty l ngi thu
tu, d n xy lp bng d liu, trn c s xc nh chi ph khai thc theo ngy
tu trung bnh v cc ph vn ti d u DO (USD/ thng v USD/t n) trung bnh
trong cc bng di y.
Bng 2.21. D tnh chi ph khai thc
1.

Chi ph khai thc

a. Chi ph nhin liu

b. My n chy 1 nm

USD/chuyn

502.500

USD/nm

510.000

74

c. Chi ph u bn Vit Nam

USD/chuyn

20.000

d. Chi ph u Trung ng

USD/chuyn

50.000

e. Chi ph khc

USD/chuyn

30.000

USD/ ngy

32.000

2.

n gi thu nh hn

3.

Nng sut vn chuyn du DO

thng/chuyn

650.000

4.

S chuyn khai thc trong thi

chuyn

tng s ngy tu thu =

hn thu
5.

Sn lng vn ti trong thi hn

38 ngy/chuyn
thng

Tnh t bng2.18

USD

Tnh t bng 2.18

thu
6.

Tng ph qun l v khai thc

tu trong thi hn thu

7.

Cc ph vn ti trung bnh

USD/ thng

Bng 2.22. Tnh chi ph vn ti = chi ph khai thc + chi ph thu tu

(xem ph lc)
T bng trn cho thy chi ph khai thc trung bnh 17.299 USD/ ngy thp
hn cht t so vi mc 18.552 USD/ ngy theo tng kt ca McQuilling, tuy nhin
mc chnh khng nhiu cho thy phng php tnh ton ca Tcty l st vi thc t.
Mt khc cc ph vn ti du DO trung bnh tuyn Trung ng Vit Nam
l 2,88 USD/thng (khong 22,69 USD/tn). So vi mc gi nhp khu DO trung
bnh ti Trung ng v Singapore nm 2004 - 2006 l 2,97 USD/thng th cc ph
vn ti theo tnh ton ca Tcty l 2,88 USD/thng thp hn mc gi nhp khu ti
Trung ng v Singapore. T cho thy c c hi gim gi u vo hng ha khi
u t tu ch hng cho chnh cho Tcty.
2.11. Tm tt chng 2
- Vic u t tu Aframax khng nh thng hiu v nng cao uy tn ca
tng cng ty trn th trng trong nc, khu vc v th gii, trong lnh vc hot
ng hng hi c trong vn ti bin v kinh doanh xng du.

75

- To s ng b trong hat ng ca h thng kho - cng xng du v hiu

qu trong kinh doanh xng du ca tng cng ty, m bo an ninh nng lng cho
quc gia c bit khi kho xng du ngoi quan Vn Phong i vo hot ng.
- Hng nm gp phn gim mt lng ln ngoi t m tng cng ty phi
thanh ton chi ph vn ti t vic thu tu Aframax cho cc ch tu nc ngoi.
ng thi tng phn np ngn sch cho nh nc qua thu thu nhp doanh nghip
v tng doanh thu cho cc ngn hng qua cc khon li vay.
- Nng cao trnh qun l ca i ng cn b qun l, khai thc tu v
nng lc ca thuyn vin ca tng cng ty.
- To c hi m rng phm vi hot ng lin quan n khai thc i tu vin
dng nh thu v cho thu tu; mi gii v a dng ho ngnh ngh khc.
t c iu trong chng ny lun vn phn tch cc yu t lin quan
n chin lc, s dng cc ma trn trong phn tch chn cc chin lc ti u
nht nhm lm c s cho vic a ra cc gii php thc hin chin lc pht
trin i tu.

76

CHNG 3. PHNG N U T V GII PHP THC HIN CHIN

LC PHT TRIN I TU VN TI XNG DU N NM 2015
3.1.

Phng n u t.
Xut pht t mc ch u t l phi chc chn, m bo pht trin bn

vng, to tin pht trin lu di, cn c tnh hnh th trng vn ti xng du ca

Vit Nam v khu vc c phn tch trong chng 2, phng n u t i tu
vin dng ca Tcty c xc nh nh sau:
Tu u tin s u t vo nm 2008 2009, vi con tu u tin s ch
du D.O trong vi nm u s da vo ngun hng nhp khu ca chnh Tcty. Tuy
nhin vic ch ng tm cc ngun hng bn ngoi cn sm c nghin cu th
trng, t chc trin khai cc hot ng tm kim ngay th trng mi sau khi con
tu i vo hot ng nhm m bo lng hng cho con tu u tin v to tin
cho vic vn ra th trng khu vc v th gii khi u t con tu tip theo.
Trn c s thc t khai thc v qun l tu, Tcty s tip tc xy dng cc
phng n khai thc tu v lp n, tm kim cc i tc u t thm mt tu
Aframax ch du F.O vo khong nm 2010 2012.
Con tu Aframax th ba khong nm 2014 2015 c th ch du D.O
hoc F.O, s c u t trn c s nghin cu kh nng lin doanh u t nu c,
nhu cu vn ti trong nc v quc t, nng lc khai thc hai con tu trc trn
nguyn tc m bo hiu qu kinh t.
3.2.

Cc gii php thc hin chin lc pht trin i tu.

3.2.1. Chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n mua tu a nng.

Trong vi nm gn y vi mc tng trng kinh t hng nm ca Vit
Nam t trung bnh khong 7%/nm, lng xng du nhp khu v tiu th ti Vit
Nam trung bnh trong 10 nm qua tng u, nht l trong cc nm va qua t
mc khong 10 - 11%/nm. Trn c s d bo nhu cu tiu th v nhp khu xng
du t nay n 2015 duy tr trung bnh mc khong 7%/nm, to ra c hi ln cho
pht trin hot ng vn ti xng du bng ng bin ca Tcty. Vic Tcty u t

77

tu Aframax ch hng nhp khu trc tip t Trung ng v Vit Nam, thay cho
vic thu tu nc ngoi nh hin nay l da trn ngun hng nhp khu n nh.
Tcty l n v c nhiu kinh nghim qun l, khai thc i tu du. Vic u
t, t chc qun l v khai thc cc tu du c trng ti ln l ph hp vi qui lut
pht trin, nhm ti mc ch m rng phm vi hot ng vn ti xng du ra khu
vc v th gii c. Mt khc do tnh hnh du m trn th gii ang gia tng lm
ny sinh nhu cu s dng ngun nng lng thay th khc, do vic u t tu
phi m bo yu cu vn ti c nhiu loi sn phm du m.
Trn y l cc yu t c bn c tc ng thc y Tcty nghin cu xy
dng chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n mua tu a nng ch du c
100.000 DWT ( c gi chung l tu Aframax), bng cc gii php sau y:
Gii php nghin cu pht trin i tu a nng thch nghi vi
tnh hnh khng hong du m hin nay.
Trong bi cnh ngun du th ngy cng khan him, th kh t l
ngun nng lng quan trng ng th ba trong nn kinh t th gii sau du m.
Kh t l loi nhin liu sch hn nhiu ln so vi than hoc du m, tr lng
cn di do v gi tng i r nn c li th ln. Hin nay cc nc pht trin v
M l th trng tiu th kh t ln nht, chim n 74% nhu cu ton cu. Gi
du tng cao t bin v tr thnh khuynh hng khng th o ngc, iu ny tr
thnh nhn t kh t ln ngi, ngoi h thng ng ng vn chuyn kh t
th cng nghip kh ho lng ang c pht trin mt cch nhanh chng. Do khi
u t i tu chng ta cn phi nghin cu tnh kh thi ca i tu a nng, mc d
gi thnh s cao hn gi thnh ca tu chuyn dng, thi gian thu hi vn s lu
hn nhng n c th vn chuyn c mt s sn phm ca du m m tu du
thng thng khng th vn chuyn c, y chnh l vn m nh qun tr cn
cn nhc a ra chin lc u t mt cch thch hp.
Gii php da vo cc chnh sch khuyn khch vn ti ng bin,
cc chnh sch v mi trng vi li th hin c so vi i th cnh tranh
pht trin i tu

78

Vic chnh ph khuyn khch v to iu kin pht trin vn ti ng

bin thng qua cc quyt nh pht trin ngnh vn ti bin Vit Nam n nm
2010, vic thc hin cng c Marpol 73/78, thanh thi tu v n n nm 2010
kt hp vi vic Tcty ang s hu i tu th h mi m bo cc tiu chun mi
trng, vi thng hiu truyn thng lu i, ngi tiu dng d dng nhn bit t
so vi cc i th cnh tranh cha kp u t i tu thay th, y chnh l c
hi cho Tcty pht trin th phn trong nc v pht trin th trng khu vc v
th gii.
Gii php huy ng vn
Vic huy ng vn vo thi im hin nay u t pht trin i tu
nhm duy tr th phn vn ti ca Tcty v tranh th c hi l iu ht sc cn thit.
Theo tiu chun an ton v bo v mi trng, n nhng nm 2008-2010, hng
lot tu khng m bo kt cu s b thay th. Thm vo , theo nhn nh ca cc
chuyn gia trong ngnh vn ti th gi mua tu tiu chun hin nay l chp nhn
c v gi bn tu khng tiu chun v mi trng ang thun li.
Huy ng vn m bo tnh ch ng trong vic mua hng nhp
khu ca Tcty, gp phn n nh th trng xng du trong nc v p ng nhu
cu vn ti ngy cng tng vi tc tng trng v nhu cu tiu th xng du hng
nm ca Vit Nam khong 7%/nm.
Huy ng vn pht trin i tu thm nhp th trng vn ti khu
vc v th gii. Do hng lot tu khng t tiu chun hot ng s b loi b dn
n vic mt cn bng cung cu trong vn ti xng du v y l thi im tt
m rng hot ng vn ti. Thm vo , gi cc trong thi gian ti s mc cao
do thiu ht phng tin vn ti.
Vic huy ng vn u t pht trin i tu s em li hiu qu
kinh t, x hi rt ln nhm nng cao uy tn ca ngnh vn ti Vit Nam trong khu
vc v th gii, gp phn a Tcty tr thnh mt Tcty vn ti xng du hng u
ca Vit Nam v c uy tn trong khu vc.

79

Tng cng ngun vn cho Tcty c th c thc hin huy ng t cc

ngun nh sau:
Ngn hng l i tc chin lc cung cp tn dng di hn ti tr
cho cc d n u t ca Tcty.
Lin doanh lin kt vi cc cng ty vn ti xng du trong khu vc v
quc t.
Huy ng vn t cc t chc cho thu ti chnh.
Huy ng vn t cc ngun vn ng trc ca khch hng.
Huy ng vn t c phn ha Tcty v t vic pht hnh thm c phiu.
Huy ng vn t cn b cng nhn vin trong Tcty.
Gii php tit kim nhm gim chi ph u vo
Gi du ln cao, dn n chi ph vn ti cng tng theo t tc ng
mnh n thng mi th gii, v ic tit kim tn ti l phng chm cc hng
tu cn phi thc hin ngay, bng cch ng dng cc cng ngh tin tin trong
vic phn tch v qun l chi ph th vic tit kim tr nn c hiu qu hn.
Theo IMO, cc hng vn ti bin v cc xng ng tu chp nhn chi
nhiu tin hn ng mi nhng con tu c cng ngh hin i th lng du
tiu th cho mi con tu s gim c t 30% n 40% v nu cc hng chp
nhn cho tu hi hnh chm hn th s gim thm khong 10% lng du tiu
th. Nh vy mi ngy lng du tiu th cho cc con tu trn th gii s khong
50% (c t nh khong 4 triu thng/ ngy).
T nhng vn c nu ra Tcty nhn thy vn khi u t nhng
con tu thuc th h mi, c nhng cng ngh tin tin n khng nhng tit kim
c nhin liu, lm gim chi ph, nng cao nng lc cnh tranh m cn lm cho
mi trng ngy cng tt hn.
Gii php quan h tt vi nhiu nh cung cp.
Vic Tcty thng nhp xng du t Singapore theo phng thc CF,
cng vi vic duy tr phng thc nhp CF t Singapore, Tcty tm kim ngun
hng t cc nc khc trong khu vc nh Trung Quc, i Loan, Thi Lan...,

80

chuyn sang nhp khu nhiu l hng theo phng thc mua FOB v s dng i
tu du Tcty ch v Vit Nam.
C ng vic duy tr quan h vi cc nh cung cp t cc nc trong khu
vc, Tcty cng tm kim thm cc nh cung cp khc t Trung ng. u nm
2002 cho n nay Tcty tha thun vi ngi bn Trung ng a tu Aframax
(trng ti 100.000 t n) n giao hng ti vng bin Vit Nam. Vic Tcty ch ng
a tu Aframax n cng Vit Nam l bc tin trong chin lc kinh doanh v
vn ti xng du.
Vic c thm nhiu nh cung cp s gip Tcty ch ng c ngun
hng trong bi cnh khng hong du m hin nay. N gip Tcty hn ch vic qu
t nh cung cp m qu nhiu i th cnh tranh.
Khi Tcty thc hin chin lc kinh doanh a dng ha sn phm, chin
lc pht trin i tu a nng s c nhiu nh cung cp la chn cho ph hp
vi chin lc ca mnh.
3.2.2. Chin lc tng cng cng tc marketing v pht trin thng hiu.
Gii php phn khc th trng v nh v thng hiu pht trin
i tu hp l
Tng cng cng tc marketing bng vic phn khc th trng kt
hp vi cc chnh sch ca chnh ph khuyn khch pht trin i tu pht trin
th trng mi trong khu vc.Vic u t tu Aframax nm trong chin lc pht
trin th trng mi ca cng ty, phn khc th trng gip cho nh qun tr nm
bt c th hiu, nhu cu khch hng th trng mi, t s dng chu k sng
ca con tu mt cch hiu qu, n l yu t khng th thiu c trong chin lc
pht trin i tu ca Tcty.
Gi tr thng hiu c mt ngha ht sc quan trng, n phi lun lun
c nh v trong tm tr ca khch hng. Nh qun tr cn phi tng cng cng
tc marketing, tng cng cng tc qung b hnh nh ca Tcty gn lin vi thng
hiu t gip khch hng phn bit c cng ty vi i th cnh tranh, lm

81

cho khch hng khi c nhu cu s dng n sn phm th hnh nh thng hiu ca
Tcty s xut hin ra trong tm tr ca h.
Vic nh v thng hiu ngy cng quan trng trong chn lc pht trin
i tu ca Tcty.
Cc bc cn lm tng cng cng tc marketing v pht trin thng
hiu ca Tcty trong giai on hin nay:
Thng xuyn cp nht thng tin v hot ng ca Tcty trn mng ni
b Petronet v mng Internet. Nhng bi vit c a ln mng ca Tcty thng
qua cc d n v ang thc hin t c hiu qu tt, li nhun cao t to
c s tin cy v nng lc vn ti ca Tcty i vi cc khch hng th trng
mi.
m bo phng thc vn ti theo ng tiu chun quc t, giao, nhn
hng ng thi hn tin v thanh ton ng hn cho nh cung cp.
Thit lp h thng qun l v khai thc hon chnh, to dng uy tn
trn th trng khu vc v quc t, ngoi vic vn chuyn phc v kinh doanh ca
Tcty th cn mc tiu l hng ti th trng trong khu vc v th gii. Kt hp
cht ch vi cc i tc trong v ngoi nc, th trong trng hp c kh khn v
ngun hng ni a, Tcty vn c c hi m bo ngun hng vn ti cho i tu
vin dng
3.2.3. Chin lc ti cu trc li c cu t chc.
C cu t chc ca Tcty c b tr theo loi c cu t chc trc tuyn chc
nng ngoi nhng u im ca c cu trc tuyn v c cu chc nng n cn to
iu kin cho i ng lnh o tr pht huy nng lc, pht huy kh nng nhn s
trong t chc, tuy nhin n s c nhng bt cp nh sau: nhiu vn tranh lun
xy ra, khng pht huy ht kh nng chuyn mn ca mnh, vic phn nh chc
nng nhim v cho cc phng ban khng r rng, d chng cho, v xung t ln
nhau. Do cn phi c nhng gii php c th cho c cu t chc nh sau
Gii php c cu li cc phng ban

82

Hon thin, giao quyn hn chc nng nhim v cho phng ban v cho
tng v tr cng tc mt cch r rng, thit lp h thng qun l cht lng theo tiu
chun ISO trong Tcty.
Thng xuyn m cc lp bi dng nghip v chuyn mn cho nhn
vin gip h pht trin ngh nghip. Hnh thc o to thng qua hc ti lp,
tho lun nhm gia cc nhn vin trao i kinh nghim vi nhau. Pht trin
ngh nghip cho cn b, cng nhn vin c xem nh l chin lc ca Tcty
nhm gip h thng tin ngh nghip.
iu tra s gn b trung thnh v s hi lng ca nhn vin i vi
Tcty. Chm lo phc li v quan tm n i sng ca cn b cng nhn vin.
K kt hp ng lao ng, ng bo him x hi, bo him y t v bo
him tai nn cho tt c i tng lao ng.
Phn phi mt s c phn vi gi u i ngoi c phiu u i cho
ngi lao ng khi cng ty c phn ha cng l mt cch gi chn ngi ti gii
cho Tcty.
To dng mt mi trng vn ho c th ca Tcty. To ra mt s
on kt thng nht trong Tcty. Xem Tcty l cn nh th 2 cho tt c mi ngi.
To s gn b, trung thnh sut i ca i ng nhn vin i vi Tcty, tt c mi
cn b, cng nhn vin u c nhn bit c s mng v mc tiu ca Tcty
trong thi gian ti v cng nhau phn u hon thnh nhim v.
Mt nt c th vn ho ca Tcty l bo m mi trng lm v ic
thoi mi, cng bng v to c hi cho tt c nhn vin u c th thng tin. y
khng nhng l ngun ng lc thc y mi ngi hng say lm vic, m cn
tng thm thu nhp cho mi ngi. Vic tuyn dng nhn s vo nhng v tr mi
s c cng khai ton Tcty v u tin khuyn khch mi ngi tham gia d tuyn
vo nhng v tr nu nhn thy mnh c nng lc hon thnh nhim v.
Gii php v ngun nhn lc cho i tu.
Bt c mt t chc hay mt Tcty th ngun nhn lc l yu t then cht
quyt nh s tn ti ca t chc hay Tcty . Hin nay chin lc pht trin ngun

83

nhn lc ca Tcty ang t ra yu km, cng tc o to cha ph hp vi mi

trng cnh tranh hin nay. Khi Tcty thc hin chin lc pht trin i tu vn ra
th trng khu vc v th gii th ngun nhn lc hin nay khng th p ng c
nhng yu cu ca t chc hng hi quc t. T nhng yu cu cp bch nu trn
vic thc hin chin lc ngun nhn lc theo cc bc sau y :
D bo nhu cu v ngun nhn lc cho chin lc pht trin i tu
ca Tcty bao gm s lng, trnh chuyn mn, tui ph hp vi cng vic.
Xy dng li thang bng lng v thng cho ph hp vi cc chc
danh trn cc con tu vin dng quc t ( v c th mi trng lm vic trn bin
rt khc nghit ).
Xy dng k hoch o to bi dng chuyn mn nghip v hng hi
quc t, bt buc v c ch khen thng khi t thnh tch hc tp cao i vi
cc thy th ca Tcty tham gia cc lp ting anh chuyn ngnh v ting anh giao
tip. C cn b tham quan hc hi chuyn mn, nghip v, phng thc qun l i
tu vin dng cc nc tin tin trong khu vc.
Lin kt vi trng i hc hng hi, trng i hc bch khoa trong
vic o to, cp nht kin thc cho thy th. Lin h vi cc t chc an ton hng
hi quc t hun luyn v cp giy chng nhn cho s quan trn cc tu ang hot
ng vin dng v mi trng, v cu ho, cu nn v.v... cng tc tuyn dng
thu th phi t c cc chun ca mt thuyn vin quc t c th xut khu
thuyn vin ra nc ngoi em doanh thu v cho Tcty.
3.3.

Kin ngh

3.3.1. i vi nh nc.
Rt ngn thi gian cp php, n gin ho th tc giy t u t. Theo
ngh nh 49/2006/N-CP, th cc th tc ng k tu bin quc gia t cc hng hi
Vit Nam, b giao thng vn ti, hon thnh th tc ng k cho mt con tu
c php hot ng mt khong t 30 n 45 ngy. Tuy nhin vn thi gian n
cn ph thuc vo hnh thc mua tu ca Tcty, nu Tcty t ng mi mi mt con
tu nc ngoi phi mt t 2- 3 nm ; cn nu Tcty mua tu c ng mi

84

thng qua ship-broker phi mt t 2- 3 thng. Nh vy ty theo hnh thc mua tu

m Tcty c th tin hnh song song cc th tc php l cn thit mt con tu c
th hot ng ngay khi bn giao con tu gia ngi mua v ngi bn.
Theo thng l quc t, vic mua tu cn phi thc hin nhiu cng on,
t qu trnh chun b, giao dch m phn v k kt hp ng, t chc thc hin,
gim st, tip nhn, a tu v, lm th tc, khai thc iu ny yu cu ch u
t phi quyt nh nhanh chng, ng thi im trong thi gian ngn. Do Tcty
cn c s h tr tch cc t cc b, cc ngnh lin quan.
Vic u t pht trin i tu c kim tra hiu qu kinh t vi mc
gi tu trn th trng hin nay. Tuy nhin vic mua bn tu trn th gii mang tnh
c hi rt cao. V vy Tcty trnh h s v ngh cc c quan qun l Nh nc
khn trng xem xt, thm nh v cho php trin khai.
3.3.2. i vi tng cng ty.
Do gi nhin liu trn th gii tng t bin dn n bin ng gi cc
vn ti cng tng theo. S c s cnh tranh v gi cc t cc i th cnh tranh
hoc do s cnh tranh khng lnh mnh t cc cng ty vn ti khc ln trong nc
v ngoi nc, Tcty cn phi c chin lc v gi h tr chin lc pht trin
i tu vin dng.
Vic bin ng gi nhin liu, m chi ph nhin liu chim t trng ln
trong tng chi ph hot ng vn ti nn vic gi nhin liu bin ng c nh hng
ln n kt qu kinh doanh, ngh Tcty xem xt li cc ch tiu k hoch kinh
doanh ca cng ty cho ph hp vi thi im h in ti.
Vic cc nc trn th gii rt quan tm n vn mi trng, m hot
ng vn ti xng du l i tng gy ra nhim mi trng do tai nn trn bin,
Tcty cn cp nht thng xuyn vic thay i cc chnh sch, quy nh ca ngnh
hng hi quc t.
Tnh hnh lm pht, li sut ngn hng,... nh hng rt ln n vic kt
qu thc hin chin lc, ngh Tcty phi kim tra cng tc d bo vic thc
hin chin lc t hiu qu cao.

85

3.3.

Tm tt chng 3

Trong chng ny lun vn xc nh c mc tiu ca chin lc pht trin i

tu vn ti xng du n nm 2015. Trn c s cc ma trn c phn tch, a
ra cc chin lc h tr cho chin lc then cht pht trin i tu, t xut
cc gii php thc hin cc chin lc :
Chin lc pht trin i tu vi phng n mua tu a nng.
Chin lc marketing.
Chin lc ti cu trc li c cu t chc.
thc hin cc chin lc h tr cn phi c thc hin mt cch ng b, v
phi t c s nht qun v quyt tm thc hin ca tt c mi ngi trong Tcty.
i vi chin lc then cht th n mang tnh c hi rt cao v ph thuc vo nng
lc ca nh qun tr d on thi im thch hp thc hin, tuy nhin cn phi
cn phi c s h tr t pha nh nc th chin lc mi c kh nng thc hin
c.

86

Kt lun
Vic tng cng ty u t tu du Aframax nhm mc tiu phc v chin lc
kinh doanh ca Tcty v l bc chun b cho qu trnh hi nhp quc t, ph hp
vi ch trng ca ng v nh nc nn rt cn h tr ca cc c quan qun l
nh nc.
T cc phn tch trn cho thy y l mt chin lc mang tnh kh thi v
phng din qun l, khai thc, ti chnh v hiu qu kinh t. Cc d kin nu ra
trong phn tch u da trn cc ti liu c tin cy, c tnh tng hp v mang
tnh c trng.
Vi vic u t tu ch du c Aframax phc v cho hot ng vn ti v
kinh doanh xng du ca Tcty, cng vi phng n khai thc v qun l hp l,
m bo hiu qu kinh t v an ton k thut, chc chn Tcty s thu c nhng li
ch kinh t, x hi sau:
- V ti chnh: tng thm doanh thu cho Tcty, tng thm ngn sch cho nh
nc.
- To c hi cho vic hi nhp vi khu vc v th gii trong hot ng vn
ti bin v kinh doanh xng du.
- Tng th ch ng trong hot ng kinh doanh xng du v m phn hp
ng thng mi.
- Nng cao hiu qu kinh doanh thng qua vic gim chi ph so vi mua CF
ti Singapore.
- To thm vic lm v thu nhp cao cho ca ngi lao ng. c bit i
ng cn b qun l v thuyn vin ca Tcty c thm nhiu c hi hc tp v tin
b v mi mt chuyn mn v ngoi ng.
T i n kt lun vic Tcty xy dng chin lc u t tu ch du
Aframax l ng n v c tnh kh thi.

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. nh Lnh (2008), Khng hong vn ti ng bin, Thi bo kinh t Si Gn,
(30), trang 59.
2. Dong Ngc (2007), Tng quan kinh t Vit nam 2007, Thi bo kinh t Vit
Nam, kinh t 2007-2008 Vit Nam v Th gii, trang 4.
3. o Duy Hun (2007), Qun tr chin lc ( trong ton cu ho kinh t ), Nh
xut bn thng k.
4.

Fred David (2006), Bn dch khi lun v qun tr chin lc, Nh xut bn
thng k.

5.

Hong Ngc Nhm (2007), Gio trnh kinh t lng, Khoa ton thng k, trng
i hc kinh t TP. HCM.

6. L Th Gii, Nguyn Thanh Lim v Trn Hu Hi (2007), Qun tr chin lc,

Nh xut bn thng k.
7. Nguyn Khoa Khi v ng Th Thanh Phng (2007), Qun tr chin lc, Nh
xut bn thng k.
8. Nguyn Th Lin Dip v Phm Vn Nam ( 2006), Chin lc v chnh sch kinh
doanh, Nh xut bn lao ng x hi.
9.

Phm Th Thu Phng (2007), Qun tr chin lc trong nn kinh t ton cu,
Nh xut bn khoa hc v k thut.

10. Phm Tr Cao v V Minh Chu (2006), Kinh t lng ng dng, Nh xut bn
lao ng x hi
11. Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam ( 01/2008), bo co tng kt nm 2007 v
phng hng nhim v gii php nm 2008.
12. Trn Ngc Ton (2007), Cuc khnh hong m thm v du m 2007, Thi
bo kinh t VN, kinh t 2007-2008 Vit Nam v Th gii, trang 109.
13. Website: www.intertanko.com
14. Website: www.petrolimex.co m.vn
15. Website: www.meps.couk/world-price.htm

PH LC 1: S b my t chc ca cng ty

Ngun : Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam.

PH LC 2: Bng tnh chi ph vn ti

Bng 2.22. Tnh chi ph vn ti = chi ph khai thc + chi ph thu tu
1

b
c
d
e
f

S ngy tu
Tng chi ph nhin liu cho
chuyn
T my pht in chy c nm
Chi ph u bn Vit Nam
Chi ph u bn Trung ng
Chi ph khai thc khc
Cng chi ph khai thc

Chi ph khai thc

Chi ph vn ti

a.

Lng hng vn chuyn trung

bnh
b
Lng hng vn chuyn /nm
c Chi ph khai thc
d
Chi ph thu tu
a

e Chi ph thu tu n v
f

Chi ph vn
ti

Chi ph khai thc

Chi ph vn ti

Nm1

Nm2

Nm3

Nm4

Nm5

350

350

320

350

320

USD/chuyn

502,500

4,628,289

4,628,289

4,231,579

4,628,289

4,231,579

USD/nm
USD/chuyn
USD/chuyn
USD/chuyn

510,000
20,000
50,000
30,000

510,000
184,211
460,526
276,316
6,059,342

510,000
184,211
460,526
276,316
6,059,342

510,000
160,000
400,000
252,632
5,554,211

510,000
175,000
437,500
276,316
6,027,105

510,000
160,000
400,000
252,632
5,554,211

USD/ngy
tu

17,299

17,312

17,312

17,357

17,220

17,357

Chi ph vn
ti

Nm1

Nm2

Nm3

Nm4

Nm5

5,986,842 5,986,842
1.01
1.01
11,200,000 11,200,000

5,473,684
1.01
10,240,000

5,986,842
1.01
11,200,000

5,473,684
1.01
10,240,000

1.87

1.87

1.87

1.87

1.87

thng/chuyn
thng/nm
USD/thng
USD/ngy

650,000

32,000

USD/thng
US D/thng

2.88

2.883

2.883

2.885

2.877

2.885

US D/tn DO

22.69

22.70

22.70

22.72

22.66

22.72

b
c
d
e
f

S ngy tu
Tng chi ph nhin liu cho
chuyn
T my pht in chy c nm
Chi ph u bn Vit Nam
Chi ph u bn Trung ng
Chi ph khai thc khc
Cng chi ph khai thc

Chi ph khai thc

Chi ph vn ti

a
b
c
d
e

Lng hng vn chuyn trung

bnh
Lng hng vn chuyn /nm
Chi ph khai thc
Chi ph thu tu
Chi ph thu tu n v

Chi ph vn ti

a.

Chi ph vn
ti

Chi ph khai thc

Nm6

Nm7

Nm8

Nm9

Nm10

350

320

350

350

310

USD/chuyn

502,500

4,628,289

4,231,579

4,628,289

4,628,289

4,099,342

USD/nm
USD/chuyn
USD/chuyn
USD/chuyn

510,000
20,000
50,000
30,000

510,000
175,000
437,500
276,316
6,027,105

510,000
160,000
400,000
252,632
5,554,211

510,000
175,000
437,500
276,316
6,027,105

510,000
175,000
437,500
276,316
6,027,105

510,000
155,000
387,500
244,737
5,396,579

USD/ngy
tu

17,299

17,220

17,357

17,220

17,220

17,408

Chi ph vn
ti

Nm6

Nm7

Nm8

Nm9

Nm10

5,986,842
1.01
11,200,000
1.87
2.877
22.66

5,473,684
1.01
10,240,000
1.87
2.885
22.72

5,986,842
1.01
11,200,000
1.87
2.877
22.66

5,986,842
1.01
11,200,000
1.87
2.877
22.66

5,302,632
1.02
9,920,000
1.87
2.888
22.74

thng/chuyn
thng/nm
USD/thng
USD/ngy
USD/thng
US D/thng
US D/tn DO

Ngun: Tng cng ty xng du Vit Nam

650,000

32,000
2.88
22.69

PH LC 3 : B ng cu hi tham kho kin chuyn gia

Xin Anh/ Ch vui lng cho bit kin ca cc anh/ch v nhng cu hi sau y:
-

Mc quan trng: t 0,0 (khng quan trng) n 1,0 (rt quan trng) cho
mi yu t, tng s tt c cc yu t bn ngoi cng ty, tng s tt c cc yu
t bn trong cng ty, hoc cc yu t thnh cng phi bng 1,0.
Phn loi t 1 n 4 cho tng yu t, trong 4 l phn ng tt, 3 l phn

ng trn trung bnh, 2 l phn ng trung bnh v 1 phn ng t i vi hiu

qu ca chin lc doanh nghip .
Bng 1: Mi trng bn ngoi
TT

Cc yu t bn ngoi ca cng ty
1 Tc tng trng kinh t cao
2 Hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii lm tng c
hi v thch thc
3 Lm pht
4 Gi du th tng
5 Tnh hnh chnh tr n nh
6 Php lut ngy cng hon chnh
7 Chnh ph quan tm n vic pht trin vn ti
ng bin
8 Nhu cu x hi ngy cng tng cao
9 iu kin t nhin thun li

10 Dn s ng
11 S pht trin ca cng ngh ng tu
12 nhim m i trng
13 Nhiu cng ty tham gia cnh tranh
14 S lin doanh lin kt
15 Cng bng v bnh ng i vi mi khch hng
16 Phc v khch hng tiu dng mi lc mi ni

Mc
quan
trng

Phn
loi

17 i vi khch hng vng su, vng xa thc hin

ch chnh sch y .
18 Thun li khi c nhiu nh cung cp
19 Ngy cng nhiu cc cng ty vn ti ng bin
t nhn, nc ngoi tham gia th trng.
20 Kh t ngy cng c s dng nhiu
Bng 2: Mi trng ni b cng ty
Mc
TT

Cc yu t bn trong ca cng ty

quan
trng

1 Ban lnh o cng ty c trnh chuyn mn v

c nng lc qun l
2 Cn b lnh o cc phng ban c trnh
chuyn mn v gn b vi cng ty
3 Trnh qun l cc phng ban chuyn mn cn
hn ch.
4 Cn b k thut qun l i tu c chuyn mn
tt
5 Thu th c tay ngh cao, c o to chnh
quy theo tiu chun hng hi quc t t.
6 Cng tc tuyn dng v o to thy th mi
cha tt.
7 Trnh ngoi ng thu th cn km
8 i tu hin hu ca cng ty c trang b cng
ngh tin tin
9 Hiu qu s dng vn tt
10 C kh nng huy ng vn pht trin i tu
11 Ngun vn u t cho i tu cng ngh hin
i ph hp mi trng cn t
12 Qun l sn xut theo m hnh trc tuyn chc

Phn
loi

nng. Gim c nm vng tnh hnh ca doanh

nghip
13 Phng php d bo xy dng k hoch hng
nm cha thc t
14 Cng tc qun l tu theo lut hng hi quc t
cn km
15 Cng ty c thng hiu truyn thng lu i
16 Cng ty xy dng c thng hiu i vi
nc ngoi.
17 Chin lc marketing m rng th trng cha
tt
18 Phong cch lnh o tp trung dn ch
19 Tinh thn lm vic ca nhn vin tt
20 Mi quan h gia cc phng ban ca cng ty
cha tht s chc ch
21 Chu s qun l ca nh nc
Bng 3 : So snh li th cnh tranh ca cng ty
Tng cng ty
xng du Vit
Cng ty PDC
Nam
Phn
Phn
Mc
Mc
Cc yu t thnh
loi
loi

TT
cng
quan
quan
trng
trng
1 Nm vng th trng
vn ti xng du
trong nc
2 Tm hiu th trng
vn ti xng du khu
vc
3 Kh nng huy ng
vn cho vic pht
trin i tu

Cng ty U
LC
Mc

quan
trng

Phn
loi

5
6
7
8
9
9
10

Doanh thu v li
nhun
nh v thng hiu
Kh nng cnh tranh
v th phn
Nng lc qun l v
vn hnh i tu th
h mi
C cu qun l linh
hot
i ng thy th
c o to chnh
quy
Nng lc vn ti

Cm n cc Anh/Ch tr li cc cu hi trn
Danh sch cc chuyn gia c mi ng gp kin cho cc yu t i vi
cng ty.
Tt H v Tn
n v cng tc
1/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/

Nguyn Quang
Nguyn Tin
Phm Huy
ng
Phan Anh
Dng nh
Trng Vn
Trung Khnh
Trn Thanh
Trn Huy
Nguyn Thanh

Chin
Dng
Hip
Hiu
Hun
Ninh
Minh
Ngc
Sn
Thch
T

Trng phng KT Cty Vitaco

Cn b KT Cty Vitaco
Cn b KT Cty Vinashinlines
Ph phng KT Cty Vitranschart
TS trng H Hng Hi TP.HCM
Trng phng KT Cty Vitranschart
Ph Tng G Cty Vitaco
Trng phng KT-Cty Vinashin
Ph phng KT Cty u Lc
Nguyn trng phng KT- Vitaco
Cn b KT Cty Vitranschart

PH LC 4 : Kim nh d bo
1. M hnh d bo tiu th xng du c nc 1996-2007
1.1. th

Nhn trn th, s c 2 m hnh c th ph hp l m hnh xu th tuyn tnh ( m

hnh LINEAR) v m hnh tng trng m (m hnh GROWTH). Ta s c lng
c hai m hnh v la chn m hnh tt hn dng cho d bo.
1.2. M hnh xu th tuyn tnh

Theils U=0.040 (<0.55) nn m hnh c chnh xc tt.

M hnh xu th tuyn tnh c vit di dng sau:

TTXD = 4151258 + 793832.2 T

Kt qu d bo theo m hnh xu th tuyn tnh

1.3. M hnh tng trng m (GROWTH)

10

Kt qu d bo m hnh GROWTH

Theils U=0.040 (<0.55) nn m hnh c chnh xc tt

Ta thy M hnh GROWTH c MAPE nh hn so vi m hnh LINEAR nn m
hnh tng trng m s tt hn. Vy, ta s s dng m hnh GROWTH d bo
M hnh tng trng m (m hnh GROWTH) c dng:
Log(ttxd) = 15.42240 + 0.085767T +u
Hay:

TTXD = e

15.42240 + 0.085767T

Kim nh hin tng t tng quan

Tht vy th AC(1), AC(2) ca chui sai s u nm trong ng gii hn

11

Kim nh hin tng phng sai thay i

Kt qu kim nh White cho thy Prob(F)=0.32 (>0.05) nn tin cy 95%, m

hnh khng b hin tng phng sai ca sai s thay i.
Kim nh tnh phn phi chun ca sai s

Sai s ca m hnh c phn phi chun v Prob(JB)=0.24 (>0.05).

Qua cc kim nh m hnh log(ttxd) khng b hin tng t tng quan, v sai s
ca m hnh c phn phi chun.

12

Nh vy m hnh GROWTH c chnh xc tt hn m hnh LINEAR. V v ic

kim nh c thc hin gin tip thng qua m hnh Log-Linear. Kt qu cho
thy m hnh Log-Linear khng b hin tng t tng quan, khng b hin tng
phng sai ca sai s thay i, v c phn phi chun. V vy, kt qu d bo tnh
ton t m hnh ny c tin cy cao.
V kt qu d bo theo m hnh GROWTH nhu cu tiu th xng cu c nc l:

2. M hnh d bo nhu cu nhp khu du DO c nc 1996 - 2008

2.1 th

Nhn trn th, s c 2 m hnh c th ph hp l m hnh xu th tuyn tnh ( m

hnh LINEAR) v m hnh tng trng m (m hnh GROWTH). Ta s c lng
c hai m hnh v la chn m hnh tt hn dng cho d bo.

13

2.2. M hnh xu th tuyn tnh

Theils U=0.025 (<0.55) nn m hnh c chnh xc tt.

M hnh xu th tuyn tnh c vit di dng sau:
TTXD = 3149731 + 304159.3 T

14

Kim nh hin tng t tng quan

M hnh LINEAR khng b vi phm hin tng t tng quan

Kim nh hin tng phng sai thay i

M hnh Linear b vi phm hin tng phng sai ca sai s thay i, v Sig (F)
trong kim nh White <0.05.

15

Kim nh tnh phn phi chun ca sai s

Sai s ca m hnh c phn phi chun v Prob = 0.98 > 0.05

Kt qu d bo theo m hnh LINEAR

16

2.3. c lng v kim nh m hnh GROWTH

Kt qu d bo theo m hnh GROWTH

H s Theils U ca m hnh d bo = 0.023 (<0.55) nn m hnh c chnh xc

tt. Ngoi ra h s MAPE=4.05 % l rt nh.
M hnh tng trng m (m hnh GROWTH) c dng:
Log(ncnk do)=15.04+0.058T+u
NCNKDO=e

15.04+0.058T

17

Kim nh hin tng t tng quan

th AC(1) ca phn d nm trong ng gii hn, nn m hnh khng b vi

phm hin tng t tng quan.
Kim nh hin tng phng sai thay i

Prob(F) trong kim nh White ln 0.05 (=0.998) nn m hnh khng b vi phm

hin tng phng sai ca sai s thay i.

18

Kim nh tnh phn phi chun ca sai s

Prob(JB)=0.68 (>0.05) nn sai s ca m hnh c phn phi chun.

Kt qu d bo theo m hnh GROWTH

19
BNG TNH HIU Q U U T TU VIN DNG (AFRAMAX)
1
2
3

1
a
b
c
d
e.
f
g
2

3
a
b
c

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Nm d n
Chi ph qun l
Cc chi ph qun l TV
USD/nm
Sa cha nh,vt t, vt liu
USD/nm
Sa cha ln, ln
USD/nm
Bo him tu (thn v + P&I)
USD/nm
Du bi trn cc lai
USD/nm
USD/nm
Qun l ph ca Petrolimex
USD/nm
Chi ph thu qun l
Cng chi ph qun l
USD
S ngy tu
USD/ngy
Chi ph vn
Ga tu
USD
S d vay
Khu hao c bn 15 nm
USD/nm
Li vay ngn hng 8%/nm
Li vn t c (25.000.000 x 8%) USD/nm
USD
Cng chi ph vn
Tng vn v qun l ph
USD
n gi thu nh hn
Doanh thu
Li trc thu
Thu DN (28%)
Li rng
Gi tr u t tu v gi bn ct
ph
Thu hi rng
T l chit khu 8%
Gi tr hin ti dng tin (PV)
Gi tr hin ti dng tin tch ly
Tng gi tr hin ti rng
(NPV)
Thi gian hon vn (PB)
T sut ni hon (IRR)

865,453
200,000

882,848
250,000
894,000
170,000
262,753
184,032
2,459,601
350

824,000
170,000
252,500
171,700
2,244,900
350

824,000
170,000
257,575
176,885
2,317,028
350

75,000,000
50,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
11,000,000
13,254,000

45,054,000
5,000,000
3,604,320
2,000,000
10,604,320
12,849,220

39,703,220
5,000,000
3,176,258
2,000,000
10,176,258
12,832,167

35,295,387
5,000,000
2,823,631
2,000,000
9,823,631
12,140,659

29,236,046
5,000,000
2,338,884
2,000,000
9,338,884
12,467,142

24,463,188
5,000,000
1,957,055
2,000,000
8,957,055
11,416,656

USD/ngy
USD
USD
USD
USD

32,000
11,200,000
(2,054,000)

32,000
11,200,000
(1,649,220)

32,000
10,240,000
(2,592,167)

32,000
11,200,000
(940,659)

32,000
10,240,000
(2,227,142)

32,000
11,200,000
(216,656)

(2,054,000)

(1,649,220)

(2,592,167)

(940,659)

(2,227,142)

(216,656)

USD

(75,000,000)

USD
USD

(66,054,000)
0.926
(61,161,111)
(61,161,111)

8,955,100
0.857
7,677,555
(53,483,556)

7,584,091
0.794
6,020,496
(47,463,060)

8,882,972
0.735
6,529,250
(40,933,811)

7,111,742
0.681
4,840,132
(36,093,679)

8,740,399
0.630
5,507,934
(30,585,745)

9,000,000

8,604,320

8,176,258

7,823,631

7,338,884

6,957,055

14,3 nm
11%

(50,000,000)

824,000
170,000
250,000
170,000
2,254,000
350

874,107
200,000
800,000
824,000
170,000
260,151
180,423
3,128,258
320

13,180,902

848,400
150,000

856,884
150,000
400,000
824,000
170,000
255,025
173,417
2,655,909
320

USD

840,000

20

891,677
250,000
1,000,000
894,000
170,000
265,380
187,712
3,471,057
320

900,594
250,000

BNG TNH HIU Q U U T TU VIN DNG (AFRAMAX)

9
10
11
12
13
946,533
300,000

14

15

16

965,558
300,000
1,500,000
684,000
170,000
287,369
219,935
3,906,927
330

975,214
350,000

894,000
170,000
268,034
191,466
2,482,628
350

909,600
250,000
894,000
170,000
270,714
195,296
2,494,314
350

918,696
300,000
1,250,000
894,000
170,000
273,421
199,202
3,806,117
320

927,883
300,000
684,000
170,000
276,156
203,186
2,358,038
350

937,161
300,000
1,500,000
684,000
170,000
278,917
207,249
3,870,078
350

684,000
170,000
281,706
211,394
2,382,239
330

955,998
300,000
684,000
170,000
284,523
215,622
2,394,522
350

17,679,844
5,000,000
1,414,387
2,000,000
8,414,387
11,885,444

12,325,288
5,000,000
986,023
2,000,000
7,986,023
10,468,651

4,798,716
5,000,000
383,897
2,000,000
7,383,897
9,878,211

5,000,000
2,000,000
7,000,000
10,806,117

5,000,000
2,000,000
7,000,000
9,358,038

5,000,000
2,000,000
7,000,000
10,870,078

5,000,000
2,000,000
7,000,000
9,382,239

5,000,000
2,000,000
7,000,000
9,394,522

5,000,000
2,000,000
7,000,000
10,906,927

2,469,456

32,000
10,240,000
(1,645,444)

32,000
11,200,000
1,321,789
370,101
951,688

32,000
10,240,000
(566,117)

(1,645,444)

32,000
11,200,000
731,349
204,778
526,572

(566,117)

32,000
11,200,000
1,841,962
515,749
1,326,213

32,000
11,200,000
329,922
92,378
237,543

32,000
10,560,000
1,177,761
329,773
847,988

32,000
11,200,000
1,805,478
505,534
1,299,944

32,000
10,560,000
(346,927)
(97,140)
(249,787)

32,000
11,200,000
8,730,544
2,444,552
6,285,992

6,768,943
0.583
3,949,613
(26,636,132)

8,512,595
0.540
4,599,090
(22,037,042)

8,335,585
0.500
4,169,868
(17,867,174)

6,433,883
0.463
2,980,133
(14,887,041)

8,326,213
0.429
3,570,970
(11,316,071)

7,237,543
0.397
2,874,128
(8,441,943)

7,847,988
0.368
2,885,689
(5,556,254)

8,299,944
0.340
2,825,808
(2,730,447)

6,750,213
0.315
2,127,949
(602,498)

6,285,992
0.292
1,834,821
1,232,323

6,414,387

5,986,023

5,383,897

5,000,000

5,000,000

5,000,000

5,000,000

5,000,000

5,000,000

684,000
170,000
290,242
224,333
2,469,456
350

21
BNG TNH HIU Q U U T TU VIN DNG (AFRAMAX)
19
20
21
22
23

17

18

984,966
350,000
1,500,000
684,000
170,000
293,145
228,820
3,982,111
330

994,816
350,000

1,004,764
350,000

684,000
170,000
296,076
233,396
2,494,892
350

3,982,111

1,024,960
350,000

684,000
170,000
299,037
238,064
2,507,801
350

1,014,812
350,000
1,250,000
684,000
170,000
302,027
242,826
3,770,839
335

2,494,892

2,507,801

32,000
10,560,000
6,577,889
1,841,809
4,736,080

32,000
11,200,000
8,705,108
2,437,430
6,267,678

4,736,080
0.270
1,280,015
2,512,338

6,267,678
0.250
1,568,480
4,080,819

24

25

1,045,561
350,000

1,056,017
350,000

1,066,577
350,000

422,000
170,000
305,048
247,682
2,272,007
350

1,035,209
350,000
1,000,000
422,000
170,000
308,098
252,636
3,285,307
350

422,000
170,000
311,179
257,689
2,298,740
340

422,000
170,000
314,291
262,842
2,312,308
350

422,000
170,000
317,434
268,099
2,326,011
346

3,770,839

2,272,007

3,285,307

2,298,740

2,312,308

2,326,011

32,000
11,200,000
8,692,199
2,433,816
6,258,383

32,000
10,720,000
6,949,161
1,945,765
5,003,396

6,258,383
0.232
1,450,143
5,530,962

5,003,396
0.215
1,073,470
6,604,431

32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
11,200,000
11,200,000
10,880,000
11,200,000
8,927,993
7,914,693
8,581,260
8,887,692
2,499,838
2,216,114
2,402,753
2,488,554
6,428,155
5,698,579
6,178,507
6,399,138
Gi tu ct bn st vn 435 USD/t x 20.000 tn =
6,428,155
5,698,579
6,178,507
6,399,138
0.199
0.184
0.170
0.158
1,276,990
1,048,199
1,052,294
1,009,140
7,881,421
8,929,621
9,981,915
10,991,055
Gi tr thu hi = NPV + gi tu bn ct st vn =

32,000
11,072,000
8,745,989
2,448,877
6,297,112
8,700,000
14,997,112
0.146
2,189,847
13,180,902
21,880,902

KT QU T C & IM MI KHI NGHIN CU

TI
Kt qu t c khi nghin cu ti:
Xng du l ngun nng lng ch yu ca mi hot ng trong nn kinh t bt k
cc quc gia no trn th gii, vic cung ng xng du trong giai on khng hong
du m hin nay l vn ai cng quan tm, vic nghin cu ti vi mc tiu
thc hin cc chnh sch, ch trng ca nh nc v vic pht trin ngnh ng
bin, lm nn tng cho vic pht trin nn kinh t mt cch bn vng, gi vng
c th phn trong nc, nng lc cnh tranh vi cc hng tu vn ti xng du
trong khu vc v th gii ang hot ng th trng Vit Nam trong thi k m
ca, ng thi gp phn hon thnh chin lc kinh doanh ca tng cng ty, hng
ti th trng trong khu vc v th gii, kin ngh vi chnh ph v cc chnh sch
nhm m bo thc hin cc chin lc pht trin ngnh vn ti ng bin ni
chung, ngnh vn ti xng du bng ng bin ni ring ca Vit Na m.
im mi ca ti:
s dng cc ngun d liu th cp c tin cy cao, lun vn s dng phn mm
Eview ki m nh l i cc d liu.