1.

1.1

,
S
.

:
:
100 :
:

: 0 100

S
S.

: A, B, C

.
, ,
,
. :
100
,
.
,
.

.

. ,

.

S
, :

1
1. S
.
2. ,
,
. n1, n2,nk
, :

n1 ( A ) n 2 ( A ) n ( A)
k
n1 n2 nk

n( A )
n

.
,
.

.

.


.
S n ,
n , 0 .
n
n =1 ,

0
=0 .
n

:

.

.


. :

2
.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 6.

:
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

. ,


.

: A B

A B.

B.
A B AB AB.

: A B

.
, .. A B = .

: A B

A B.


A B.
A B, , A
B. ,
A + B.

:
.

.

3


.

: A A = , A A = .

: B
,
B.


B.
,
B , , AB.

B
: B (
AB),
B.
: .

: .
B: .

B, .. AB.

E
: AB BA, A B
.

,

.
: A ( B C )= AB AC , ( A B) C=AC BC
B
: A B= A B , A B= A

: 1, 2, , n

1, 2, , n.

4
 1 2 n ,
e
1, 2,
, n.

: 1, 2, , n

1, 2, , n.
A 1 2 A N , a
e
1, 2,
, n.

. ,
1, 2,
1, 2,

1, 2,

2.

.
:
A:
B:

A
B. ,
B,
.
,
.
B
, B.


. , n
A B.

5
 n(B)
B, n(B)
AB.
n ( AB )
n ( B )

B.
n ( AB )
n ( AB ) n P ( AB )
=
n (B ) n (B) P ( B)
n
n
n , .

: B
P(A|B) :

P ( AB )
P ( A|B )= , A F
P (B)

P ( AB ) P ( AB )
P ( A|B )= P ( B ) P ( B| A )= P ( A ) ,

:
P ( AB )=P ( A ) P ( B| A )=P(B)P( AB)

n

n .
: n 1,2, , n F,
:
P(1,2, , n-1, n)= P(A1)P(A2A1)P(A3A2A1) P(AnAn-1A2A1)

B
:
B,
P( AB)=P( A)
B
.
B,
P(A|B) = P(A), :

6
 P ( AB ) P ( A|B ) P ( B ) P ( A ) P ( B )
P ( B| A )= = = =P ( B )
P(A) P(A) P(A)
B A.
B . ,
P( AB)=P ( AB)P( B)=P( A) P(B)
, P(AB) = P(A)P(B) e ,
P ( AB ) P ( A ) P ( B| A )
P ( A|B )= = =P ( A )
P (B) P ( B)
B,
B
.
: A B
P ( AB )=P( A) P( B).

: A B ,

: A B ;
A B ; A B .
:
A B , P(AB) = P(A)P(B). ,

==(B+ B )=AB+A B , :

P( A)=P( AB )+P (A B)
A B :
,
P( A)=P( A) P(B)+ P( A B)

P( A B)=P
(A ) P ( A )P(B)=P( A)(1P (B))=P( A) P( B)

B
.
A B
A B ,
.

: 1, 2, , n
, k (2 k n)
i1<i2< <ik :
P ( A i 1 Ai 2 A i 1 )=P ( Ai 1 ) P ( A i2 ) P ( Aik )

7
: 1, 2, , n
, i, j {1, 2, , n} (i j)
Ai Aj , .. :
P( Ai A j )=P( A i) P( A j)
,
, .
T

Hi F, i = 1, 2, HiH= , ij H i= .
i=1

A F :

P( A)= P( H i ) P ( AH i )
i=1

: HiH= AHiAH= .
, :

A= A= A ( )
H i = A H i
i=1 i=1
,

A Hi

= P ( A H i )= P(H i )P( AH i )
i=1 i=1 i=1
P ( A )=P
,
Hi F, i = 1, 2,

. P(Hi),
,
( ).

P(Hj|A), j = 1, 2, , ..

.
, . .
.
a

Hi F, i = 1, 2, HiH= , ij H i= .
i=1

8
 P ( H j ) P ( A|H j ) P ( H j ) P ( A|H j )
P ( H j| A ) = =
, j=1, 2,
P ( A)
P ( H i) P ( A|H i )
i=1

:
P( A H j) P ( H j ) P ( A| H j )
P ( H j A )= =
P(A) P ( A)

, .. H1, H2, , Hn
,
:

P( A)= P( H i ) P ( AH i )
i=1

:
P ( H j ) P ( A|H j ) P ( H j ) P ( A|H j )
P ( H j| A ) = = , j=1, 2,
P ( A)
P ( H i) P ( A|H i )
i=1

3.

.
.

1: ,
= {E1, E2, , E6},
Ei
i .

X
R :
X(i) = i, i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

2:

.

9
 = {E1, E2, , }, En n , n
= 1, 2,

Y: R,
Y(En) = n, n = 1, 2,


.

: X

(, F, P) e X: R F-, ..
{E|X(E)<x} F, x R

:
X
F: RR
F(x) = P{E|X(E) < x} = P{X < x}, x R

:
:
-
lim F ( X )=0 lim F ( X )=1
- X , X +

- x0 R

X
( ),
(.. ) X
.
X Rx = {x1, x2, ,
xn} pi= P{X = xi},
pi=1 , P{X
i

Rxc} = 0.

X,
pi, i = 1, 2,
.

10

, X
:
x x2 xn
(
X: 1
p1 p 2 p n )

X,
.

X
:
0, x x1
p1, x1 < x x 2
p1 + p2, x2 < x x 3
p1 + p2 + p3, x3 < x x 4

p1 + p2 + p3 + + pn-1, xn-1 < x xn

1, x > xn

F ( x )= pi
i : x i <x

( )
p = P (A) q = 1 p.

IA A
.
IA 0 1,
, .
0

, 1 . ,
P(IA = 0) = q
P(IA = 1) = p
..

( 1p)
IA: 0
q

11

X n
, p = P(A), a q = 1 p.
Rx X e Rx =
{0, 1, 2, ,n},

pi=P ( X=i ) =P n ( i )= n p i q ni , i Rx
() i
,
n n

pi= (ni ) pi qni=( p+q )n=1

i=0 i=0

n p X~B(n, p).


n = 1, .. B(1, p) .

Rx = {x1 , x2, , xn} pi = P(X = xi) = 1/n, i = 1, 2,

, n
Rx X ~ U{x1 , x2, , xn}).

X , R x =
{0, 1, 2, }
i

Pi=P X=i = e
( )
i!
> 0 .
:

i i
Pi= e =e =e e =1
i=0 i ! i=0 i!

i=0

.. pi, i = 0, 1,
.
X ~ P() X
.

12

x, x+x (a, b) x > 0.
F ( x + X )F ( x )
p ( x )= lim p(x)
x 0 x
X
( , X).

X
F(x), X
:
F ( x + X )F ( x )
p ( x )= lim =F ' ( x)
x 0 x
p(x) ,


F ( x )= p ( t ) dt

p(x) = 0, x a x b.

-
: p(x),

X

F ( x )= p ( t ) dt

X -
.

: X -
p(x). :
1. p(x) 0, x R

2. p ( x ) dx=1

3. P(a<X<B)= p ( x ) dx
a

(a, b)
X
(a, b) ( X ~ U(a, b)),

13
 ,
0, , ..
p(x) = C, x (a, b)
p(x) = 0, x (a, b)
X ~ U(a, b)
C 2
:
b
1= p ( x ) dx= Cdx=C(ba)
a

1
, C=
ba

1
p ( x )=
ba , x (a, b)
0 , x (a, b)
X ~ U(a, b)
X

(a, b) :
x

xa: F ( x )= p ( t ) dt= 0 dx=0

a x
1 xa
a<xb: F ( x )= p ( t ) dt= 0 dx + dx=
a ba ba
a b
1
x>b: F ( x )= p ( t ) dt = 0 dx + dx + 0 dx=1
a ba b

..
F(x) = 0, x a
F(x) = (x-a)/(b-a), a < x b
F(x) = 1, x > b

X

X ~ E(),
:
p(x)=0, x <0

p ( x )= ex , x 0
X :
F( x )=0, x 0

14
 F ( x )=1 ex , x> 0

()
X ()
2, X ~ N(a,2),
:
2
( xa )
1 2
2

p ( x )= e
2
a R > 0 .
2
( xa )
1 , p(x) ,
2
2
e
2
( xa )

=1 .. a x = a.
2
2
e
1
e p ( a )=
2 . , ,
1
2 , ,
p(x) . , r
R,
2
( xa )
1 2
2

P ( a+r )= p ( ar )= e ,
2
x = a
p(x).

2.

.

,
,
.



.

15
2.1
: ( )

.
.

.
R(X) , X
, R(X) R
.

X
n, n

xi, i= 1, , n. R( X )={x k , k =1,. ., r }
r . x k fk

, x k fk
fk
n , k=1, .r.
:
fk
=1
r n
f k =n , r

k=1

k=1

x R ,

f
F n ( x )= k
k,x n
k x

n xi, i=1,n:
n
1
x = x i
n i=1

16
 r
1
x = x k f k
n k=1

^ .

n xi, i=1,n:
n
1
( x ix ) = n x i x
2 2 2

i=1
n
1
^ 2=
n i=1

x
( k ) f k x2
2

r
2 1
( x k x ) f k = n
k=1
r
1
^ 2 =
n k=1

2.2
X F(X).
n X
(X1, X2,., Xn),
Xi, i=1,2,n
F(X).
n- (x1,x2,
xn) Xi
xi R(X), i=1,2,n.

Y=h(X1, X2,., Xn), h e n ,

.

.

.

17

.
:
, , , ...
.

:
1. ,

2. ,

t

T^ =h( X 1 , X 2 , . , X n)

t
.
( h).

^
T t
^ ^
T t: E ( T )=t .

t
T^
, n ,
Var (T^ )
N(0,1).

2.3



.

,
.

( ).

18

.
.
H0, H1,, Hn.

.
.

: 0 H1
( ). T
X1, X2,., Xn

.


.
.

=1 . (
.)

tkr T X1, X2,., Xn

.
T
,
.
T >
tkr tkr>0, T < tkr tkr < 0.
T < tkr1 T > tkr2
tkr1 < tkr2.

19
 :
1. Vera Culjak, Verojatnost i Statistika, Gradjevinski fakultet - Sveuciliste u
Zagrebu;
2. E. Kovac-Striko, N. Kapetanovic, B. Ivankovic, Verojatnost I statistika
interna skripta;
3. I. Sosic, V. Serdar: Uvod u statistiku, Skolska knjiga, Zagreb, 1997;
4. Ivo Pavlic. Statisticka teorija i primjena. Zagreb: Panorama, 1965;
5. Zvonko Glumac, Vjerojatnost i statistika kratak uvod, Publisher, 2015;

20
21