Chương 2

Lựa chọn dự án
(Project Selection)
 Project selection
❖ Screening models (mô hình sàn lọc)
▪ Checklist
▪ Simple scoring models
▪ Analytic hierarchy process
▪ Profile models
❖Financial models (mô hình tài chính)
▪ Payback period (thời gian hoàn vốn)
▪ Net present value (NPV)
▪ Internal rate of return (IRR)
 Check list model
❖A checklist is a list of criteria applied to possible
projects.
▪ Requires agreement on criteria
(Yêu cầu phải có sự đồng thuận về các tiêu chí)
▪ Assumes all criteria are equally important
(Giả định các tiêu chí quan trọng như nhau)

Checklists are valuable for recording opinions and

encouraging discussion
(checklist có giá trị trong việc thu thập ý kiến và
khuyến khích thảo luận)
Project Criteria Performance criteria
High Medium Low
Cost X
Profit potential X
Anpha
Time to market X
Development risks X
Cost X Source:
Profit potential X Pinto
Beta (2013)
Time to market X
Development risks X
Cost X
Profit potential X
Gama
Time to market X
Development risks X
Cost X
Profit potential X
Delta
Time to market X
Development risks X
 Simple scoring models
❖ Each project receives a score that is the weighted
sum of its grade on a list of criteria. Scoring models
require:
(Mỗi dự án sẽ nhận được một điểm số là tổng của các
điểm điểm số của các tiêu chí nhân với trọng số của
tiêu chí đó)
▪ agreement on criteria
▪ agreement on weights for criteria
▪ a score assigned for each criteria
Score =  (Weight  Score)
Relative scores can be misleading!
Project Criteria Important Score Weighted
weight score
Cost 1 3 3
Profit potential 2 1 2
Anpha Development risks 2 1 2
Time to market 3 2 6
Total score 13
Cost 1 2 2
Profit potential 2 2 4
Beta Development risks 2 2 4
Time to market 3 3 9
Total score 19
Gama Total score 18
Delta 16

Source: Pinto (2013)

 Analytic Hierarchy Process
The AHP is a four step process:
1. Construct a hierarchy of criteria and subcriteria
2. Allocate weights to criteria
3. Assign numerical values to evaluation dimensions
4. Scores determined by summing the products of
numeric evaluations and weights
Analytic Hierarchy Process

Tiêu chí lựa

chọn dự án

Tài chính Chiến lược Công nghệ

(50%) (30%) (20%)

Chiếm thị phần

Ngắn hạn (35%)
(18%)

Giữ chân KH
Dài hạn (15%)
(12%)
 Analytic Hierarchy Process
Example from IT company
Project Total Finance(50%) Strategy(30%) Technology
Market (20%)
Short-Term Long-Term share Retention
35% 15% 18% 12% 20%
Anpha 100 Excellent Excellent Excellent Excellent Excellent
Beta 64 Good Excellent Good Excellent Good
Gama 61 Good Fair Excellent Good Very good
Delta 42 Poor Fair Good Very good Excellent

Very
Excellent good Good Fair Poor
100 80 50 20 0
Gama = 0.35*Good + 0.15*Fair + 0.18*Excellent + 0.12*Good + 0.20*Very good
Gama = 0.35*50 + 0.15*20 + 0.18*100 + 0.12*50 + 0.20*80 = 61
 Profile Models
Show risk/return options for projects. Requires:
(thể hiện các sự lựa dự án với các mức rủi ro và
sinh lời khác nhau)
▪ Criteria selection as axes
▪ Rating each project on criteria
X6
Maximum
Desired Risk X2
X4 X5
R
i X3
s X1
k Efficient Frontier

Minimum Return
Source: Pinto (2013) Desired Return
 Time value of money (giá trị theo thời gian của tiền)

❖FV = PV*(1+i)n
❖PV = FV/(1+i)n

Where
FV: future value
PV: present value
i: discounted rate
(1+i)n: discounted factor
 Payback Period (thời gian hoàn vốn)
❖ Determines how long it takes for a project to reach a
breakeven point
(Xác định bao lâu thì dự án có thể lấy lại vốn đầu tư
ban đầu)
Cash flows should be discounted
(dòng tiền nên được chiết khấu)
Lower numbers are better (faster payback)
(thời gian hoàn vốn càng ngắn càng tốt)
 Payback Period Example

A project requires an initial investment of $200,000 and

will generate cash savings of $75,000 each year for the
next five years. What is the payback period?

Year Cash Flow Cumulative Divide the cumulative

CF amount by the cash
flow amount in the
0 -200,000 -200,000 third year and subtract
from 3 to find out the
1 75,000 -125,000 moment the project
2 75,000 -50,000 breaks even.

3 75,000 25,000 3 − 25, 000 = 2.67 years

75, 000
 Payback Period Example
A project requires an initial investment of $200,000 and
will generate cash savings of $75,000 each year for the
next five years. What is the discounted payback period?
Suppose discount rate is 5%.
Divide the cumulative
Cash Discounted Cumulative amount by the
Year Flow CF CF discounted cash flow
0 -200,000 -200,000 -200,000 amount in the third
year and subtract from
1 75,000 71,429 -128,571 3 to find out the
moment the project
2 75,000 68,027 -60,544 breaks even.
4,244
3 75,000 64,788 4,244 3− = 2.93 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
64,788
 Payback Period Example
❖ Advantages of Payback Period Method:
▪ Simple and easy to use (đơn giản dễ sử dụng)
▪ Reduces projects exposure to risk and uncertainty by
selecting the project with the shortest payback period (giảm
rủi ro bằng cách lựa chọn dự án có thời gian hoàn vốn
ngắn)
▪ Appropriate to High Technology Projects (thích hợp với dự
án công nghệ cao).
❖ Disadvantages of Payback Period Method:
▪ It does not look at the TOTAL project (what happens after
payback period?). (không quan tâm đến toán bộ dòng tiền
của dự án)
▪ It is not suitable for evaluation of long term projects due to
varying inflation and interest rates. (không phù hợp để đánh
giá các dự án dài vì sự thay đổi của lạm phát và lãi suất)
 Net Present Value

Projects will change the firm’s stock value if a

project is undertaken. (dự án sẽ thay đổi giá trị cổ
phiếu công ty nếu dự án được thực hiện)

𝐹𝑡
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝐼𝑜 + ෍
(1 + 𝑟 + 𝑝𝑡 )𝑡
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
𝐹𝑡 = 𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑡 Higher NPV
𝑟 = 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛
values are
𝐼 = 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑝𝑡 = 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑡 better!
 Net Present Value Example
Should you invest $60,000 in a project that will return
$15,000 per year for five years? You have a minimum
return of 8% and expect inflation to hold steady at 3%
over the next five years.
Discount
Year Net flow factor PV
0 -$60,000 1.0000 -$60,000.00
The NPV
1 $15,000 0.9009 $13,513.51 column total
2 $15,000 0.8116 $12,174.34 is -$4561, so
don’t invest!
3 $15,000 0.7312 $10,967.87
4 $15,000 0.6587 $9,880.96
5 $15,000 0.5935 $8,901.77
NPV= -$4,561.54
 Net Present Value Example
❖ Advantages of NPV:
▪ It provides profit and loss forecast. (nó đưa ra dự báo
lãi và lỗ)
▪ It looks at the TOTAL project. (xem xét toàn bộ dòng
tiền dự án)
▪ It can simulate ‘What if’ analysis using different value.
(có thể thực hiện phân tích độ nhạy)
❖ Disadvantages of NPV:
▪ Need to estimate discount rate before calculating
NPV. (muốn tính NPV cần có suất chiết khấu)
▪ Assumes fixed rate for duration of the project. (giả
định một suất chiết khấu cố định cho toàn bộ thời
gian dự án)
 Internal Rate of Return

A project must meet a minimum rate of return before

it is worthy of consideration. (dự án phải đáp ứng
một suất sinh lời tối thiểu trước khi nó được xem xét
cụ thể hơn) Higher IRR values are
better!
t
ACFt
IO = 
n =1 (1 + IRR )t

where
ACFt = annual after tax cash flow for time period t
IO = initial cash outlay
n = project's expected life
IRR = the project's internal rate of return
 Internal Rate of Return
❖ Four steps to find IRR
1. Pick an arbitrary discount rate and use it to
determine the NPV of cash flow.
2. If the NPV equals zero, you have found the IRR.
3. If the NPV is greater (or less) than zero, select the
higher (or lower) discount rate for the computation.
4. Calculate NPV and repeat steps 2-4 until you have
determine the IRR.
 Internal Rate of Return Example
Suppose that a project required initial cash investment of
$5,000 and was expected to generate inflows of $2,500, $2,000
and $2,000 for the next three years. Further, assume that our
company’s required rate of return for new project is 10%. Is the
project worth funding?
Discount
factor at
Year Net flow 12% PV
0 -5,000 1.000 -5,000
1 2,500 0.893 2,233
2 2,000 0.797 1,594
3 2,000 0.712 1,424

NPV= 251 > 0

 Internal Rate of Return Example

Discount
factor at
Year Net flow 15% PV
0 -5,000 1.000 -5,000
1 2,500 0.870 2,175
2 2,000 0.756 1,512
3 2,000 0.658 1,316

NPV= 3~0

Decision: Net present value at 15% discount rate is $3, which

suggests that 15% is a close approximation of the IRR.
 Internal Rate of Return Example
❖ Advantages of IRR:
▪ No need to estimate discount rate before calculating
IRR. (không cần phải ước lượng suất chiết khấu
trước khi tính IRR)
▪ We can compare between IRR and required rate of
return (có thể so sánh trực tiếp giữa IRR và xuất sinh
lời yêu cầu)
❖ Disadvantages of IRR:
▪ Difficult to calculate (khó tính toán)
▪ Accuracy is dependent upon predicted cash flows.
(độ chính xác phụ thuộc vào dòng tiền được dự báo)
 Reference
❖ Pinto (2013) Project Management – Achieving competitive
advantage, 3th edition: Pearson