‫ﻣﺘﺮﺟﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺠﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪www.onlinedoctranslator.

com -‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺭﺟﺎﻧﺎ ‪،‬ﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻳﻮﻧﻮ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺱ ﻛﻴﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻮﺳﺮﻳﻨﺪﺍﺭﺗﻮﺗﻮ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻱ ﺑﻲ )‪ .(2022‬ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪.‬ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱﻭ‪)3‬ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺒﻜﺮ(‪https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.29955 .‬‬

‫ﺑﺤﺚﺗﻤﺖ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻷﻗﺮﺍﻥ‬

‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫‪1‬ﺝ‬
‫‪1‬ﺏ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺍﻧﺊ ﺩﺑﻲ ‪Koesrindartoto‬‬ ‫‪1‬ﺃ‪، SK Wiryono‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺟﺎﻧﺎﺩﺍﺭﺟﺎﻧﺎ‬
‫‪1‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻭﻧﻎ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫‪https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.29955‬‬

‫ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ‪ ، 3.‬ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ‪2022 ،‬‬

‫ﺗﻬﺪﻑﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﻗﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ‬
‫‪2011‬ﻭ ‪ .2020‬ﻭﺗﻜﺸﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء‪ .‬ﺗﻜﺸﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺾﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺉﺤﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء‪ .‬ﻧﻈﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺤﺼﻨﺎ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍءﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻧﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻀﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺉﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺩﻋﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻝﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻊﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺪﻡ ﻣﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻭﻻ ً‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻔﺤﺺ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻷﺩﺍء ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ‪ .‬ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎً ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﺒﺪﻳﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺉﺢ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻀﻠﺔ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎءﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﺰءﺍً ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝﺃﻭﺳﻊ ﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻟﺔ )‪(Gertler et al.، 2011‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻦﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ )ﺭﺍﻣﺎﺳﺎﻣﻲ ‪ .(2020 ،‬ﻧﺤﻦ ﻧﻜﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱﺗﻔﺮﺿﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪﻟﻠﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻭﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪I.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﻗﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻧﺪﺭﺱ ﻛﻴﻒ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻔﺸﻲ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻗﺪ ﻃﻐﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻬﻤﺎً ﻷﻧﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎً ﻭﺳﻂ ﺍﻻﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺉﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ)ﺃﻱ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ(‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻭﺃﺩﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﺑﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺣﻬﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺃﻧﺪ ﻟﻮﻥ )‬
‫‪ .(1991‬ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﻫﺆﻻء ﺍﻟﻤﺆﻟﻔﻮﻥ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺣﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺊﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺮﺿﻴﻦ ﺍﻵﺧﺮﻳﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺤﺪﺙﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻧﻘﺺ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺿﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺴﺒﺐﺍﻟﺠﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺷﺒﻪ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻔﺖﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺑﺎء‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺷﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺯﺍﺩﺕﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﺻﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﺯﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻲ ‪،‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻭﺳﻴﺎﻭﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﻦ ﻭﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ )ﺩﺍﺵ ﻭﺁﺧﺮﻭﻥ ‪.(2021 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎءﺓ)‪ .(Narayan، 2020b‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ )‪Zheng ، 2020‬‬
‫& ‪ .(Huang‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎءﺓ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻭﺿﻮﺣﺎً ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺛﺮﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺒﺎﺭﻋﻦ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﺤﻦﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻭﺻﻞﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻹﺻﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ )‪، 2020a‬‬ ‫‪2011‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 2020‬ﻭﻭﺟﺪﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ .(Narayan‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺩﺕ ﺗﻜﻬﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﻨﺎءﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻣﻨﻪ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺉﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎءﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﺉﺪ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ )‪، 2021‬‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪.(Haldar & Sethi‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺬﻣﺎﺭﺱ ‪ ، 2020‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﺓ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﺺ ﻧﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻳﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔﺑﺎﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻴﻘﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء‪ .‬ﻳﻨﺠﺬﺏ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﻗﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻭﺗﺠﻨﺐ‬
‫ﻣﻦﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻈُﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﻻﻉ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺭﺟﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﺍﻟﻤﺆﻟﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺳﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪darjana@sbm-itb.ac.id :‬‬

‫ﺏﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪sudarso_kw@sbm-itb.ac.id :‬‬

‫ﺝﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪deddypri@sbm-itb.ac.id :‬‬

 ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻳﻦﻳﻌﺎﻟﺞﺭﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﺃﻡ ﻻ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺭﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﻫﻤﻲ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﻘﺪﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔ )ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎً‬
‫ﻣﻨﻪﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ‬
‫ﺟﻤﻌﻨﺎﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺪﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ‪ 2011‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪2020‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﻤﻨﺎﺑﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ .1‬ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞﻓﻲﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪1‬ﺗﺒﻴﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ‬
‫‪18.87‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‪ .‬ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ /‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪، COVID-19‬‬
‫ﺣﺪﺛﺖﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺒﺎﻃﺆ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ )ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ( ؛ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ؛‬
‫ﻫﻮﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﻫﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﻳﺴﻤﺒﺮ ‪) 12 :2020‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪-19‬‬
‫‪ ، (COVID‬ﻭﺻﻔﺮ ﺑﺨﻼﻑ ﺫﻟﻚ ؛ ﻭ‬
‫ﻫﻮﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢﺍﻷﺛﺮ )ﺑﻴﻜﺮ ‪ .(2000 ،‬ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ‪ 18.88‬ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ ٪5‬ﺳﻴﺞ‪-‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯﺍﻟﻠﻄﻒ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ‪) 2020‬ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺭﺝ( ﻟـ‬
‫ﻫﻮ‪ ، 21.55‬ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ‪ 2.36‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻛﻮﻓﻴﺪ ‪ .19-‬ﺗﻜﺸﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﺍء ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺧﻀﻊ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2020‬ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ (‪-19 )2011-2019‬‬
‫‪.COVID‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ .2.‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻔﺘﺮﺽ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺤﻠﻞ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ)‪ ٪ 45‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ( ﻭﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ )‪ ٪ 30‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ( ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ‪ COVID-19‬ﻭ ‪ COVID-19‬ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻛﺒﻴﺮ)ﺍﻧﻈﺮﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪ . (2‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﻼﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﻭﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻊﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ )ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ( ﻟﻸﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎً‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺯﺍﺩﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜﺮﺓ )‪ (NPLs‬ﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﺃﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜﺮﺓﻟﻼﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫‪.2020‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺎﺭﺱ ‪.2020‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ .3.‬ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﺛﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ)ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎء( ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺑﺎء ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ )ﺍﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‪. (3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕﺑﻤﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ )‪.(Han & Qian ، 2020‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻮﺑﺎء ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺉﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡﻭﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ )‪ .(Liu et al. ، 2020‬ﺗﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻔﺸﻲ ‪ ، COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻜﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲﺃﻭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ )‪.(Haldar & Sethi ، 2021‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎً‪.‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ‬
‫ﺃ‪.‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻦﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﻤﻴﺔ ﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺤﻠﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ)‪ .(SMEs‬ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎء‪ .‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺭﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 2011‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 2020‬ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ‪) 2010‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ( ﻣﻦ ‪ .Statistics Indonesia‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎً ﺛﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎءﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻱ ‪،‬ﺑﻨﻚ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻌﺪﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ )‪ (DID‬ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ‪ .‬ﻧﺤﻦ ﻧﻄﺒﻖ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔﻛﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺷﺒﻪ )ﺑﺮﺗﺮﺍﻧﺪ ﻭﺁﺧﺮﻭﻥ ‪ ، (2002 ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺗﺠﺮﻳﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻭﻥﺿﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺗﺠﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﻞﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻞ )‪ Khandker‬ﻭﺁﺧﺮﻭﻥ ‪،‬‬
‫‪ ، (2010‬ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺷﺎﺉﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔﻋﻼﺝ ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺗﺤﻜﻢ ﻭﻓﺘﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺎً‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﺮﺑﺎﻟﻮﺑﺎء‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺑﻄﺔ ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺎً‬
‫ﻟﻢﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻮﺑﺎء ‪.COVID-19‬‬
‫ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕﻣﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺑﻄﺔﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺧﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ DID‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ )ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩﺑﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻟﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺘﻴﻦ(‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺗﺠﺮﻳﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺯﺍﺉﻒﻷﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﻳﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﻼﺝﺗﻮﺣﻲ ﺑﻮﻗﺎﺉﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻛﺴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﻳﻦ)ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ( ﻳﺠﺘﺎﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺟﺬﺭ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺩﻳﻜﻲﻓﻮﻟﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺰﺯ ﻟﻼﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻻﻧﺞ & ﻻﻧﺞ )‪ (2020‬ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺲ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻠﺘﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﻴﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﻭﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪ ، DID‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﻴﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭﺍﻟﺨﻄﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‪ .1‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ‪DID‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔﺏ‪ :‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻛﻮﻓﻴﺪ ‪:19-‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔﺃ‪ :‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ‪:COVID-19‬‬ ‫ﺧﻂﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ‪- 01 :2011‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫‪12 :01-2020:2020‬‬ ‫‪12 :01-2019:2011‬‬ ‫‪12:2020‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ‪Yt:‬‬

‫ﻻﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪:‬‬
‫‪*2.672‬‬ ‫‪*2.3634‬‬ ‫‪*2.3261‬‬
‫)‪(0.0463‬‬ ‫)‪(0.0271‬‬ ‫)‪(0.0403‬‬ ‫‪t_CreditX‬‬

‫‪*18.8765‬‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﻣﺮﺽ ﻓﻴﺮﻭﺱ ﻛﻮﺭﻭﻧﺎ‬

‫)‪(4.6597‬‬ ‫‪t_CreditX‬‬
‫‪*91585.83‬‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻣﺮﺽ ﻓﻴﺮﻭﺱ ﻛﻮﺭﻭﻧﺎ‬
‫)‪(22504.84‬‬
‫‪*2547.846‬‬ ‫‪*2279.06‬‬ ‫‪*2391.79‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ)‪(α‬‬
‫)‪(156.0203‬‬ ‫)‪(106.3604‬‬ ‫)‪(165.7446‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪108‬‬ ‫‪120‬‬ ‫ﻥ‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‪:‬ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ )ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪ ((SD‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﻤﺔ )*( ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ‪ .٪5‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻋﻴﻨﺘﻴﻦ‪:‬ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔ ‪ A‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ (‪ COVID-19 )2011-2019‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔ ‪ B‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ (‪ .COVID-19 )2020‬ﻳﻈُﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻊ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‪ .2‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔ‪ :B‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪01-2020: 12‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔﺃ‪ :‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ‪01-2019: 12‬‬ ‫ﺧﻂﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ‪- 01 :2011‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫‪COVID-19:2020:‬‬ ‫‪COVID-19:2011:‬‬ ‫‪12:2020‬‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‪:‬‬

‫ﻻﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪:‬‬
‫‪*22.7303‬‬ ‫‪*5.3223‬‬ ‫‪*5.3398‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪(0.0998‬‬ ‫)‪(0.0766‬‬ ‫)‪(0.0977‬‬
‫‪*41.6365‬‬ ‫‪*8.2706‬‬ ‫‪*7.9726‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪(0.1596‬‬ ‫)‪(0.1217‬‬ ‫)‪(0.1582‬‬
‫‪18.4964‬‬ ‫‪*8.6372‬‬ ‫‪*8.4144‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪(0.1511‬‬ ‫)‪(0.0575‬‬ ‫)‪(0.1382‬‬
‫‪14.5569‬‬ ‫‪*13.4112‬‬ ‫‪*12.9291‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪(0.2392‬‬ ‫)‪(0.0984‬‬ ‫)‪(0.2221‬‬
‫‪* 41338.799-‬‬ ‫‪*1808.431‬‬ ‫‪*1779.204‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪1‬‬
‫)‪(182.1004‬‬ ‫)‪(139.7457‬‬ ‫)‪(185.7102‬‬
‫‪* 45923.1760-‬‬ ‫‪*3642.514‬‬ ‫‪*3859.366‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪2‬‬
‫)‪(153.5992‬‬ ‫)‪(117.1909‬‬ ‫)‪(162.0112‬‬
‫‪* 14552.0630-‬‬ ‫‪*1731.067‬‬ ‫‪*1934.754‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪3‬‬
‫)‪(171.4535‬‬ ‫)‪(65.184‬‬ ‫)‪(164.3405‬‬
‫‪* 907.1470-‬‬ ‫‪*1041.112‬‬ ‫‪*1352.609‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪4‬‬
‫)‪(186.603‬‬ ‫)‪(76.7945‬‬ ‫)‪(181.5038‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪108‬‬ ‫‪120‬‬ ‫ﻥ‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‪:‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ )ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ( ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﻤﺔ )*( ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻗﺪ ﺍﺟﺘﺎﺯ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺎً ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ .٪5‬ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔ ‪ B‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻦﻛﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﻞ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ )‪ .1‬ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ .2 ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ .3 ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻮﻥ ‪.4 ،‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ( ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﻈُﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻊ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﺤﻢﺍﻟﻌﺠﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺉﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﺎﺭﺱ ‪ ، 2020‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ ٪ 320‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻟﻸﻏﺬﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﺑﺎﺕ )‪ .(٪480‬ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻔﺰﺓﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺑﺮﻳﻞ ‪2020‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‪ ٪480‬ﻣﻨﺬ ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪.2020‬‬
‫ﺗﻢﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻊﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﺧﺼﺼﺖ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ‪ 700‬ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻭﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺪﻳﺔ)ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 460‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ( ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻛﺠﺰءﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ‪.‬ﺧﻔﺾ ﺑﻨﻚ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺉﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥﻟﻠﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﺎء ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪-19‬‬
‫‪ .COVID‬ﻭﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪،‬ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﻥ ﻳﺤﻘﻘﺎﻥ ﺃﺩﺍء ًﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻴﺎ‪ ً.‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﻛﻴﻒﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮ ﺣﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ‬
‫‪.COVID-19‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺫﻱ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺑﻤﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺻﻌﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻫﻴﺉﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﻴﺪ‪-‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ‬

 ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‪ :3‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔ‪ :B‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪01-2020: 12‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔﺃ‪ :‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ‪01-2019: 12‬‬ ‫ﺧﻂﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ‪- 01 :2011‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫‪COVID-19:2020:‬‬ ‫‪COVID-19:2011:‬‬ ‫‪12:2020‬‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‪:‬‬

‫ﻻﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ)‪(SD‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫‪(0.4487)44.5463‬‬ ‫‪(0.4322) *11.9326‬‬ ‫‪(0.4569) *12.5433‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪(0.3683) *45.6548‬‬ ‫‪(0.3448) *13.5098‬‬ ‫‪(0.3542) *13.8039‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪(0.4409) * 127.3115-‬‬ ‫‪(0.1899) *28.0318‬‬ ‫‪(0.4756) *27.1966‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪(0.5651) * 108.2615-‬‬ ‫‪(0.4854) *28.5675‬‬ ‫‪(0.6808) *26.019‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪*1891.366‬‬
‫‪(348.4054) *28097.218‬‬ ‫* ‪(335.6237) 2237.982‬‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪1‬‬
‫)‪(364.5463‬‬
‫‪*2533.503‬‬
‫‪(241.4657) * 25316.089-‬‬ ‫‪(226.0487) *2684.881‬‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪2‬‬
‫)‪(241.5494‬‬
‫‪*4628.198‬‬
‫‪(113.1093) *65530.419‬‬ ‫‪(48.7264) *4470.399‬‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪3‬‬
‫)‪(130.2013‬‬
‫‪*6407.774‬‬
‫‪(113.3429) *54750.625‬‬ ‫‪(97.3447) *6052.225‬‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪4‬‬
‫)‪(151.7185‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪108‬‬ ‫‪120‬‬ ‫ﻥ‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‪:‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ )ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ( ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﻤﺔ )*( ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻗﺪ ﺍﺟﺘﺎﺯ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺎً ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ .٪5‬ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺣﺔ ‪ B‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ )‪ .1‬ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ .2 ،‬ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ‪ .3 ،‬ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ‪ .4 ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎء( ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻰ‪ .‬ﻳﻈُﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻊ ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﺎﺉﺪﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ )‪ ٪6.17‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ، 2020‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ( ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱﻇﻞ ﺟﺬﺍﺑﺎً ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﻳﺪﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻬﺪﻑﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥﻟﺘﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻊﺍﻟﻤﻜﺘﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻟﺪﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ‬
‫ﺳﻴﻤﺎﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﻭﺑﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎًﻟﻌﺪﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻟﻬﻴﺉﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ )‬
‫ﺗﻢﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﻣﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪ 4‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮﻩ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﻟﻮﺝ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2020‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔﻭﺍﻵﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﺎﻣﻼ ًﺩﺍﻓﻌﺎً ﻟﻼﻧﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ‪،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺇﻗﻨﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻵﻣﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ‪ 150‬ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺃﻭﺍﺉﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ، 2020‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ ، ٪3.50‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝﻓﻲ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺑﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺧﻔﺾ ﺑﻨﻚ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻔﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻛﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﺮﺍﺯﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻗﺪﻣﺖ ﻫﻴﺉﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ )ﺍﻟﻼﺉﺤﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪2020 / 11‬‬
‫‪ POJK.03 /‬ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻛﺄﺛﺮ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻛﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ‪ (COVID-19‬ﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻳﻨﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺠﻨﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻒﻋﻦ ﺳﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻇﻞ ﺍﻷﺩﺍء ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺩﻳﺴﻤﺒﺮ ‪ 2020‬ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺎً ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎً ‪،‬‬
‫‪ ، (٪23.81‬ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﻠﺔ ﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺮ )‪ ، (٪31.67‬ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺉﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ)‪ ( .(٪1.59‬ﻭﺻﺎﻓﻲ ﻫﺎﻣﺶ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺉﺪﺓ )‪ (٪4.32‬ﻭﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜﺮﺓ)‪ .(٪3.06‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺩﻯ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺮﺿﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ )‪1.(LAR‬ﺫﻛﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2020‬ﺃﻧﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪ LAR‬ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫‪، ٪25‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻠﺖ ﻓﺉﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫)‪ (BUKU‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ )ﺑﺮﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 30‬ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻭﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ( ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ‪ .LAR‬ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ‪ .٪27‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪.‬ﺧﺎﺗﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻔﺎﻅﺑﺄﺭﺑﺎﺣﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻌﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ‬

‫ﻣﻦﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺯﺍﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﻳﻈُﻬﺮﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻔﺸﻲ ﻣﺮﺽ ﻛﻮﻓﻴﺪ ‪ 19-‬ﻗﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕﺍﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﻔﻆ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻤﻮ‪) ٪136.61‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺳﻨﻮﻱ(‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬

‫‪1‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ‪ LAR‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ ﺳﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻤﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺫﻛﺮﻓﺉﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ‬

 ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺾﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻱ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻃﺆ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺉﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺑﺎء ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﺛﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﺑﺘﻔﺸﻲ ‪ ، COVID-19‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﺉﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪-19‬‬

‫‪ COVID‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺑﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻵﻣﻨﺔﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻻ ﺗﻈﻞ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻷﺑﺤﺎﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‪ .4‬ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﻣﻨﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‪:‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻨﻔﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ‪،‬ﻣﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ‪ .COVID‬ﻳﺴُﺘﻤﺪ ﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬

‫ﺇﻋﺘﺮﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻨﻚ ﺇﻧﺪﻭﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻮﺩﺃﻥ ﻧﺸﻜﺮ ﻭﻧﺮﺳﻞ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻧﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﺮﺭﻱ ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ‪Economics Letters‬‬

‫ﺩﻋﻤﻨﺎﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺭﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ Asian‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭﺓ ﺳﻮﺯﺍﻥ ﺷﺎﺭﻣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻳﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺟﻌﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ‬

‫ﻫﺬﺍﻣﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺡ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﻪ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺗﺮﺧﻴﺺ (‪.Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License )CCBY-SA-4.0‬‬
‫ﺍﻋﺮﺽﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺧﻴﺺ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0‬ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪/by-sa/4.0/legalcode‬‬
‫‪ https://creativecommons.org/licenses‬ﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ‬

 ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪ COVID-19‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻲ‪Huang، W.، & Zheng، Y. )2020(. COVID-19:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‪.‬ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺃﺑﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔﻭ‪c.13685.13685 ، (2)1‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.46557/001‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻋﺪﻭ ‪Kahn-Lang، A.، & Lang، K. )2020(.‬‬
‫ﻣﺰﺍﻟﻖﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺗﺄﻣﻼﺕ ﻓﻲ ‪ 16‬ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎءﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻭ‪، (3)38‬‬
‫‪/10.1080/07350015.2018.1546591.613-620‬‬
‫‪http: //doi.org‬‬
‫‪Khandker، SR، Koolwal، GB، & Samad، HA )2010(.‬‬
‫ﺩﻟﻴﻞﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﻚ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪.COVID‬ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ‪X‬ﻭ‪/10.1016/j.mex.2020.101202.101202 ،8‬‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ‪Liu، L.، Wang، EZ، & Lee، CC )2020(.‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ‪ COVID-19‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪:‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺃﺑﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔﻭ‪، (1)1‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.4655 7 / 001c.13154.13154‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﺭﺍﻳﺎﻥ ‪ .PK )2020a( ،‬ﺃﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻭ ‪COVID-19 — Is‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙﺃﻱ ﺍﺗﺼﺎﻝ؟ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺃﺑﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔﻭ‪c.13176.13176 ، (1)1‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.46557/001‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﺭﺍﻳﺎﻥ ‪ 2020) PK،‬ﺏ(‪ .‬ﻫﻞ ﺗﻜﺜﻒ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ‪.COVID-19‬ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱﻭ‪، (2)1‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17654.17654‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﻣﺎﺳﺎﻣﻲ ‪،‬ﻙ‪ .(2020) .‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ﻛﻮﻓﻴﺪ ‪.19-‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔﺃﺑﺤﺎﺙ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺎﻧﺎﻭ‪.29 - 819 ،10‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﻜﺮ ‪،‬ﺟﻴﻪ ﺇﻝ )‪.(2000‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪ :‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻤﺎﺭﺳﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-4697-0‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻧﻜﻲ ‪،‬ﺏ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﺪ ﻟﻮﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻲ ﺇﺱ )‪ .(1991‬ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺉﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕﺑﺮﻭﻛﻴﻨﻐﺰ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱﻭ‪.205-248 ، (2)22‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.2307/2534592‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺗﺮﺍﻧﺪ ‪،‬ﺇﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻓﻠﻮ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻮﻟﻴﻨﺎﺛﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺱ‪.(2002) .‬ﻛﻴﻒ‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐﺃﻥ ﻧﺜﻖ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ؟‪.‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ‪.NBER‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.3 386 / w8841‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﺵ ‪،‬ﺩﻱ ﺑﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺜﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺍﺵ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻛﻴﻪ )‪ .(2021‬ﻣﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺽﻭﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﻜﺲ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻣﻦ ‪-19‬‬
‫‪https: // d oi.org‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺮﺗﻠﺮ ‪،‬ﺑﻴﺠﺎﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺭﺗﻴﻨﻴﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺱ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻳﻤﺎﻧﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﻟﻴﻨﻐﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻝ ﺑﻲ ‪،‬‬
‫‪& Vermeersch ، CMJ )2011(.‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﻚﻋﺎﻟﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻟﺪﺍﺭ ‪،‬ﺃ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻴﺜﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ‪ .(2021) .‬ﺍﻷﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬
‫‪.‬ﻋﻠﻰﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ‪ Covid-19‬ﻧﺸﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ‪.33-58 ،2021‬‬
‫ﻫﻞﺍﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ‪Han، H.، & Qian، Y. )2020(.‬‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺟﺎﺉﺤﺔ ‪COVID-19‬؟ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺭﺟﺔ‪.‬ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱﻭ‪/ 001c.18072.18072 ، (3)1‬‬
‫‪https://doi.org/10.46557‬‬

‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﺭﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻱ‬