BÀI GIẢNG

SUPPLY CHAIN
QUẢN TRỊ CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG MANAGEMENT
SCMA430709

GVHD: Ths. Chu Thị Huệ

Nguồn hình ảnh: medium.com

Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh, tháng 02 năm 2022
 NỘI DUNG CHÍNH

• Chương 1: Tổng quan về chuỗi cung ứng

• Chương 2: Hoạt động điều hành chuỗi cung ứng: Lập kế hoạch và tìm nguồn
cung ứng
2.1. Tổng quan về hoạt động chuỗi cung ứng
2.2. Lập kế hoạch cho hoạt động của chuỗi cung ứng
2.3. Tìm nguồn cung ứng
• Chương 3: Hoạt động điều hành chuỗi cung ứng: Sản xuất và phân phối
• Chương 4: Giá trị thông tin trong chuỗi cung ứng
• Chương 5: Hợp đồng cung ứng và liên minh chiến lược
• Chương 6: Tính bền vững và quản trị chuỗi cung ứng
 MỤC TIÊU CỦA CHƯƠNG

• Xác định được khái niệm của các hoạt động kinh doanh trong
bất kỳ chuỗi cung ứng nào (Gain a conceptual appreciation of
the business operations in any supply chain)
• Áp dụng được các hiểu biết về hoạt động điều hành chuỗi cung
ứng gồm lập kế hoạch và tìm nguồn cung ứng (Exercise an
executive-level understanding of operations involved in supply
chain planning and sourcing)
• Đánh giá được hiệu quả hoạt động của 2 quy trình lập kế hoạch
và nguồn cung ứng trong doanh nghiệp (Start to assess how
well these operations are working within your own company)
 2.1. TỔNG QUAN VỀ HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG

“It’s not what you know, but what you can remember
when you need it”
As a way to get a high-level understanding of these operations and
how they relate to each other, we use a simplified version of the Supply
Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model developed by the Supply
Chain Council (Supply Chain Council Inc., 12320 Barker Cypress Rd,
Suite 600, PMB 321, Cypress, TX 77429, www.supply-chain.org). Readers
can get information on the full model at their web site. Our simplified
model identifies five categories of operations:
1. Plan
2. Source
3. Make
4. Deliver
5. Return
“Do what you do the best
Outsource the rest”

Nguồn: Michael H.Hugos (2011), Essentials of Supply Chain Management, Third Edition
SCOR MODEL
Nguồn: semanticscholar.org/paper/Systemic-Assessment-of-SCOR-for-Modeling-Supply-Kasi
Model When applied?

Make To - Consumer goods

Stock - Mass production, lot size selling

- Several optional goods

Make To
- Partly completed product and assembled
Order completely after received the order

Assemble - Variety of product and differentiation

To Order - Not regular demand, limit quantity

Engineer - Complicated products

To Order - Special demand
2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.1. Dự báo nhu cầu (Demand Forecasting and Planning)

All forecasts deal with four major variables that combine to

determine what market conditions will be like. Those variables are:
1. Supply
2. Demand
3. Product Characteristics
4. Competitive Environment
2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.1. Dự báo nhu cầu (Demand Forecasting and Planning)

1. Supply
Supply is determined by the number of producers of a product
and by the lead times that are associated with a product
• Few suppliers / long lead times  instability and difficult to
forecast
• Many suppliers / short lead times  easy to forecast
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.1. Dự báo nhu cầu (Demand Forecasting and Planning)

2. Demand
• Demand refers to the overall market demand growing or declining for a
group of related products or services (yearly or quarterly rate of growth or
decline)
• Many products have a seasonal demand pattern. For example, snow skis
and heating oil are more in demand in the winter, and tennis rackets and
sun screen are more in demand in the summer.
• The market is a developing market—the products or services are new and
there is not much historical data on demand or the demand varies widely
because new customers are just being introduced to the products.
Markets where there is little historical data and lots of variability are the
most difficult when it comes to demand forecasting.
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.1. Dự báo nhu cầu (Demand Forecasting and Planning)

3. Product Characteristics
• Product characteristics include the features of a product that influence
customer demand for the product.
• Is the product new and developing quickly like many electronic products
or is the product mature and changing slowly or not at all? Forecasts for
mature products can cover longer timeframes than forecasts for products
that are developing quickly. It is also important to know whether a product
will steal demand away from another product.
• Can it be substituted for another product? Or will the use of one product
drive the complementary use of a related product? Products that either
compete with or complement each other should be forecasted together.
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.1. Dự báo nhu cầu (Demand Forecasting and Planning)

4. Competitive Environment
• Competitive environment refers to the actions of a company and
its competitors (direct and indirect).
• What is the market share of a company?
• Regardless or whether the total size of a market is growing or shrinking,
what is the trend in an individual company’s market share? Is it growing or
declining?
• What is the market share trend of competitors? Market share trends
can be influenced by product promotions and price wars, so forecasts
should take into account such events that are planned for the upcoming
period. Forecasts should also account for anticipated promotions and
price wars that will be initiated by competitors.
2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

Nguồn: Michael H.Hugos (2011), Essentials of Supply Chain Management, Third Edition
2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

1. Qualitative
• Qualitative methods rely upon a person’s intuition or subjective
opinions about a market.
• These methods are most appropriate when there is little historical
data to work with. When a new line of products is introduced, people
can make forecasts based on comparisons with other products or
situations that they consider similar. People can forecast using
production adoption curves that they feel reflect what will happen in
the market.
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

2. Causal
Causal methods of forecasting assume that demand is strongly related to
particular environmental demand. If prices are lowered, demand can be
expected to increase and if prices are raised, demand can be expected to
fall. or market factors. A strong causal relationship exists between price
and
For example:
• Revenue & expenses; advertising & profits; price & salary
• Price and demand for gold; loan needs and interest rates
• Gasoline prices increased, transport costs increased
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

3. Time series
• Time series methods are the most common form of forecasting.
They are based on the assumption that historical patterns of demand
are a good indicator of future demand. These methods are best when
there is a reliable body of historical data and the markets being forecast are stable
and have demand patterns that do not vary much from one year to the next.
• Mathematical techniques such as moving averages and exponential smoothing are
used to create forecasts based on time series data. These techniques are
employed by most forecasting software packages.
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

4. Simulation
Simulation methods use combinations of causal and time series methods to imitate
the behavior of consumers under different circumstances. This method can be used
to answer questions such as what will happen to revenue if prices on a line of
products are lowered or what will happen to market share if a competitor
introduces a competing product or opens a store nearby.
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

Notes:
• Dự báo ngắn hạn độ chính xác cao hơn (Short-term forecasts are inherently more
accurate than longterm forecasts).
• Sử dụng nhiều phương pháp dự báo cùng lúc (Most companies do several forecasts
using several methods and then combine the results of these different forecasts into the
actual forecast that they use to plan their businesses).
• Dự báo tổng hợp chính xác hơn dự báo đơn lẻ (Aggregate forecasts are more accurate
than forecasts for individual products or for small market segments. For example,
annual forecasts for soft drink sales in a given metropolitan area are fairly accurate but
when these forecasts are broken down to sales by districts within the metropolitan area,
they become less accurate).
• Càng ít số liệu thì độ chính xác của dự báo càng thấp (The
more narrowly focused or specific a forecast is, the less data is available, the more
accuracy is diminished).
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

Notes:
• Trong dự báo thường có sai số (There are no perfect forecasts and businesses need to
assign some expected degree of error to every forecast).
• Thường là +/- 5% đối với dự báo chính xác (An accurate forecast may have a degree of
error that is plus or minus 5 percent).
• Dự báo mang tính suy đoán sai số là +/- 20% (A more speculative forecast may have a
plus or minus 20 percent degree of error).
• Phải có kế hoạch dự phòng khi có sai số xảy ra (It is important to know the degree of
error because a business must have contingency plans to cover those outcomes).
• Dự báo nhu cầu xong => tiến hành lập kế hoạch, mục đích là thỏa mãn nhu cầu nhằm
tối đa hóa lợi nhuận (Once demand forecasts have been created, the next step is to
create a plan for the company to meet the expected demand. This is called aggregate
planning, and its purpose is to satisfy demand in a way that maximizes profit for the
company).
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.2. Cách thức dự báo nhu cầu (Forecasting Methods)

Exercise:
Sales at a shop of company appears to vary with the day of the week. Sales
has been recorded in the over a four - week period as follows:

Mon
Week Tue wed Thu Fri
(Unit)
1 84 51 57 48 63
2 76 55 60 46 65
3 65 56 62 50 68
4 80 56 63 49 69
- Draw a graph of the time series of sales at this shop
- Give the comments about the trend of sales
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.3. Định giá sản phẩm (Product Pricing)

Product promotion and
company cost structure

Nguồn: Michael H.Hugos (2011), Essentials of

Supply Chain Management, Third Edition
 2.2. LẬP KẾ HOẠCH CHO HOẠT ĐỘNG CHUỖI CUNG ỨNG –PLANNING

2.2.4. Quản trị tồn kho (Inventory Management)

• Inventory management is a set of techniques that are used to

manage the inventory levels within different companies in a supply
chain. The aim is to reduce the cost of inventory as much as possible
while still maintaining the service levels that customers require.
• Inventory management takes its major inputs from the demand
forecasts for products and the prices of products.
• There are three kinds of inventory: cycle inventory; seasonal
inventory; and safety inventory.
Hiệu ứng “BullWhip Effect”

• Biến động nhu cầu thay đổi đột ngột => ảnh hưởng đến toàn bộ chuỗi
cung ứng

• Bốn nguyên nhân chính gây ra hiệu ứng Bullwhip:

1. Việc cập nhật dự báo nhu cầu
2. Dung lượng đơn hàng theo gói/ lô (order batching)
3. Sự biến động về giá cả (price fluctuation): nhà sản xuất tăng công suất
nhưng giá lại giảm => dư thừa hàng hóa (VD hàng công nghệ vòng đời
ngắn, nhanh lỗi thời, do đó cần sản xuất nhiều, nhanh dù giá thành giảm
=> dư thừa
4. Sự hạn chế và thiếu hụt (rationing and shortage gaming): hàng thiếu =>
nhu cầu ảo về hàng hóa
Hệ thống PUSH: mô hình sản xuất truyền thống: lưu kho nhiều, thiếu thông tin

Push đơn hàng Push đơn hàng Push đơn hàng

Nhà cung cấp
Hệ thống bán Công ty nguyên liệu, phụ
Nhà sản xuất
sỉ và lẻ thương mại tùng
Giao hàng Giao hàng Giao hàng

Gia tăng tồn

kho Gia tăng tồn Gia tăng tồn Gia tăng tồn
kho kho kho

Không thỏa mãn Chi phí lưu kho bãi

nhu cầu khách hàng tăng cao
Hệ thống PULL: khai thác tốt dòng thông tin, giảm thiểu chi phí, tồn kho hàng hóa

Pull đơn hàng

Pull đơn hàng
Pull đơn hàng & dự báo
& dự báo
& dự báo Nhà cung cấp
Hệ thống bán Công ty nguyên liệu, phụ
Nhà sản xuất
sỉ và lẻ thương mại tùng
Cập nhật đơn
hàng Cập nhật đơn Cập nhật đơn
hàng hàng

Giảm thiểu
Giảm thiểu Giảm thiểu Giảm thiểu
tồn kho
tồn kho tồn kho tồn kho

Chi phí sản xuất, chi

Thỏa mãn nhu cầu
phí lưu kho bãi
khách hàng
thấp
Một ví dụ minh họa cho hiệu ứng Bullwhip chính là trò chơi nổi tiếng
Beer (Beer-game). Trong trò chơi này, người chơi sẽ đóng vai người
tiêu dùng, người bán lẻ, nhà bán sỉ và nhà cung cấp một nhãn hiệu
bia phổ thông. Người chơi không thể trao đổi với nhau và phải tự
đưa ra quyết định dựa trên đơn hàng của người có liên quan trực
tiếp đang đóng vai trò là khách hàng của mình. Khi chơi, người ta
phát hiện ra rằng càng đi ngược sâu vào chuỗi cung ứng thì mức độ
biến động đơn hàng càng lớn.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)

2.3.1. Sourcing

• Sourcing is the choice of who will perform a perform a particular supply chain activity,
such as production, storage, transportation, or the management of information. All the
stage level, these decisions determine what functions a firm performs and what functions
the firm outsources. Sourcing decisions affect both the responsiveness and efficiency of
a supply chain.

• Sourcing is the set of business processes required to purchase goods and services.
Sourcing decisions should be made to increase the size of the total surplus to be shared
across the supply chain.

• Outsourcing to a third party is meaningful if the third party raises the supply chain
surplus more than the firm can on its own. In contrast, a firm should keep a supply chain
function in-house if the third party cannot increase the supply chain surplus or if the risk
associated with outsourcing is significant.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.1. Sourcing
• Example: Zara

Zara has a sourcing strategy that varies by product type. For basic products such as white
T-shirts, Zara aims for efficiency because demand is predictable. These products are
sourced from suppliers in low cost countries. For trendy products for which demand is
unpredictable, in contrast, Zara sources from company – owned factories in Europe. These
factories are not low cost, but they are flexible and responsive to the rapidly evolving needs
of the trendy market.

• Example: Cisco

Cisco has outsourced almost all of its manufacturing. It does, however, have a sourcing
strategy that varies by product type. For low-end products such as routers for home
networks, Cisco aims for efficiency. These routers are produced and packed in China and
shipped in bulk for sale in the United States. Cisco aims for the lowest cost manufacturing
location and economies of scale in transportation because the targeted market segment
values low cost. For high-end products, in contrast, Cisco outsources to contract
manufacturers in the United States. These manufacturers are not low cost, but they are
responsive and can serve the rapidly evolving needs of the high-end market.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Components of Sourcing Decisions

• IN-HOUSE OR OUTSOURCE The most significant sourcing decision for a firm is whether to
perform a task in-house or outsource it to a third party. Within a task such as transportation, managers
must decide whether to outsource all of it, outsource only the responsive component, or
outsource only the efficient component. This decision should be driven in part by its impact on
the total supply chain surplus. It is best to outsource if the growth in total supply chain surplus is
significant with little additional risk.

• SUPPLIER SELECTION Managers must decide on the number of suppliers they will have for a
particular activity. They must then identify the criteria along which suppliers will be evaluated
and how they will be selected.

• PROCUREMENT Procurement is the process of obtaining goods and services within a supply chain.
Managers must structure procurement with a goal of increasing supply chain surplus. For example, a firm
should set up procurement for direct materials to ensure good coordination between the supplier and
buyer. In contrast, the procurement of MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) products should be
structured to ensure that transaction costs are low. Purchasing is the act of buying.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Components of Sourcing Decisions
• SOURCING-RELATED METRICS directly impact the cost of goods sold and accounts payable. The
performance of the source also impacts quality, inventories, and inbound transportation costs with the
following sourcing-related metrics:
 Days payable outstanding measures the number of days between when a supplier performed a supply
chain task and when it was paid.
 Average purchase price measures the average price at which a good or service was purchased during the
year. The average price should be weighted by the quantity purchased at each price.
 Range of purchase price measures the fluctuation in purchase price during a specified period. The goal is
to identify if the quantity purchased correlated with the price.
 Average purchase quantity measures the average amount purchased per order. The goal is to identify
whether a sufficient level of aggregation is occurring across locations when placing an order.
 Supply quality measures the quality of product supplied.
 Supply lead time measures the average time between when an order is placed and when the product
arrives. Long lead times reduce responsiveness and add to the inventory the supply chain must carry.
 Fraction of on-time deliveries measures the fraction of deliveries from the supplier that were on time.
Supplier reliability measures the variability of the supplier’s lead time as well as the delivered quantity
relative to plan. Poor supplier reliability hurts responsiveness and adds to the amount of inventory the
supply chain must carry.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Sourcing Strategy
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Sourcing Strategy
Case study: Telefon AB LM Ericsson
On 17 March 2000 there were thunderstorms in New Mexico, and lighting hit an electronic
power line. This caused a surge in power, which started a small fire in Philips chip-making factory
in Albuquerque. The automatic sprinkler system put this out within 10 minutes, and fire damage
to the building was slight. Unfortunately, thousands of chips that were being processed were
destroyed. But more importantly, the sprinklers caused water damage throughout the factory
and smoke particles got into the sterile area, contaminating millions of chips held in stock.
Four thousand miles away, Ericsson was Sweden’s largest company with an annual revenue
of $30 billion, 30 per cent of which came from mobile telephones. For many years, Ericsson
moved towards single sourcing as a way of lowering costs and speeding deliveries. Now the
Philips plant was its sole source of many radio frequency chips, including those used in an
important new product.
 At first, Philips thought that the plant would return to normal working within a week, so Ericsson
was not too concerned when it heard about the fire. However, it soon became clear that there was
more extensive damage. Philips actually shut the factory completely for three weeks, it took six
months for production to return to half the previous level, and some equipment took years to replace.
Ericsson had no alternative suppliers, an at a time of booming sales it was short of million of chips.
In 2001 Ericsson said production lost due to the fire cost it more than $400 million. When this
figure was published, its share price fell by 14 per cent in a few hours. For a variety of reasons,
including problems with component supply, marketing mix, design, and the consequences of the fire,
Ericsson’s mobile phone division lost $1.7 billion that year. It decided to withdraw from handset
production and outsource manufacturing to Flextronics International. It also changed its approach to
procurement, moving away from single sourcing and ensuring that there were always backup
suppliers. And it also introduced systems for risk management to avoid similar problems in the future.
Case study: Nokia
At the time of the 2000 fire in Albuquerque, Nokia was another leader in the
communications industry, with revenues of $20 billion, more than 70 per cent of which
came from mobile telephones. It also used the Philips factory as a source of chips, and
between them Ericsson and Nokia bought 40 per cent of its production.
But Nokia’s reaction to the problem was much faster and more positive than Ericsson’s.
In the 1990s Nokia had suffered from shortages of components that limited production
and cost millions of dollars in lost sales. It took various measures to stop this happening
again, including the appointment of a “supply chain troubleshooter” who identified
problems and sorted them out as quickly as possible. And it carefully avoided single –
sourcing key components.
Its proactive risk management meant that Nokia did not have to wait until Philips told it about the
fire, but its “events management system” quickly noticed a hiccup. The company immediately
contacted Philips, and within hours of hearing about the fire had assembled a team to assess
problems, find ways around them, monitor conditions and offer technical support. More directly, it
put pressure on Philips to divert capacity in other plants to maintain its supplies – and it negotiated
with other suppliers, redesigned chips so that other companies could make them, and redesigned
products to use slightly different chips. Nokia used its considerable influence to get everyone’s
cooperation. Alternative Japanese and US suppliers were delivering new chips within five days, and
10 million chips were supplied by other Philips factories in Eindhoven, the Netherlands and
Shanghai, China. As a result of its actions, Nokia’s production was hardly affected by the fire.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Procurement
Type of procurement

Nguồn: https://www.netsuite.com/portal/resource/articles/accounting/procurement.shtml
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Procurement
Procurement process

Purchasing
• Identify needs • Conduct three-
• Create purchase way matching
• Negotiate terms
request • Approve invoice
• Create orders and arrange
• Assess vendors
• Receive and payment
inspect goods/ • Keep records
Sourcing services
Payment

Nguồn: https://www.netsuite.com/portal/resource/articles/accounting/procurement.shtml
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Procurement
Procurement process

Nguồn: https://www.kissflow.com/procurement/procurement-process/
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Procurement

Several factors supporting purchasing decision making

• Product: product reliability, quality, technical
specification, standard, competitive price, in-
stock availability,…

• Delivery: leadtimes, on-time delivery ratio,…

• Services: technical services, post purchasing

services,…

• Vendor/ supplier: reliability, convenience in

ordering/ communication, vendor’s flexibility in
adjusting to the buyer’s needs, problem solving
ability in late delivery and other unexpected Nguồn: https://www.printerest.com
events (contingency plan),…

• …
? Liệt kê một số chi phí khi mua hàng ở nước ngoài
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Procurement
Purchasing Methods
• Forward purchasing
 Pros: discounts, delivery terms, minimize risk of rising material costs
and protection against future availability
 Cons: may suffer a loss in business when prices fall, incurring inventory
costs
• JIT purchasing
Using “PULL system” in order to balance manufacturing and needs
Buyer and supplier/vendor: long-term and stable agreement/ contract. The
close coordination between buyer and supplier/vendor is essential element.
 2.3. TÌM NGUỒN CUNG ỨNG (SOURCING)
2.3.2. Procurement

? Thực hành đàm phán qua thư tín

- Inquiry
- Offer
- Acceptance
- Order