PHAÂN TÍCH TRIEÅN

VOÏNG (Prospective analysis)

5
CHÖÔNG
5-1

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Mụ c tiêu
• Mô tả tầm quan trọng của phân tích triển vọng (Describe the
importance of prospective analysis).
• Giải thích quá trình lập báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh dự báo, bảng
cân đối kế toán dự báo, báo cáo lưu chuyển tiền tệ dự báo
(Explain the process of projecting the income statement, the
balance sheet, and the statement of cash flows).
• Thảo luận và minh họa tầm quan trọng của phân tích độ nhạy
(Discuss and illustrate the importance of sensitivity analysis).
• Mô tả quá trình dự báo để định giá cổ phiếu (Describe the
implementation of the projection process for valuation of equity
securities).
• Thảo luận khái niệm các nhân tố chi phối giá trị và sự trở lại mức
cân bằng dài hạn của chúng (Discuss the concept of value drivers 5-2
and their reversion to long-run equilibrium levels).
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Nộ i dung
• Dự báo các báo cáo tài chính (Projecting Financial Statements)
• Vận dụng phân tích triển vọng trong mô hình định giá lợi
nhuận còn lại (Application of Prospective Analysis in the
Residual Income Valuation Model)
• Các xu hướng của các nhân tố chi phối giá trị (Trends in Value
Drivers)

5-3

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Phaân tích trieån voïng
Taàm quan troïng
 Ñònh giaù coå phieáu (Security Valuation) – nhöõng moâ hình
nhö chieát khaáu doøng tieàn tự do vaø lôïi nhuaän coøn laïi ñoøi
hoûi phaûi coù thoâng tin öôùc tính töø baùo caùo taøi chính
trong töông lai ñeå öôùc tính giaù coå phaàn hieän haønh.

 Ñaùnh giaù hoaït ñoäng quaûn trò (Management Assessment)–

döï baùo keát quaû hoaït ñoäng kinh doanh giuùp xem xeùt söï
phuø hôïp cuûa nhöõng keá hoaïch chieán löôïc cuûa coâng ty.

 Ñaùnh giaù khả năng thanh toaùn (Assessment of Solvency) –

höõu ích cho caùc chuû nôï trong vieäc ñaùnh giaù khaû naêng
ñaùp öùng caùc yeâu caàu ñoái vôùi caùc khoaûn nôï keå caû
ngaén haïn vaø daøi haïn 5-4

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Dự báo các báo cáo tài chính (Projecting Financial
Statements)

• Dự báo Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

• Dự báo Bảng cân đối kế toán
• Dự báo Báo cáo lưu chuyển tiền tệ

5-5

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Quaù trình laäp döï baùo (The Projection Process)

Döï baùo baùo caùo KQHÑKD

Keát quaû döï baùo doanh thu thöôøng bò aûnh höôûng

bôûi nhöõng nhaân toá sau:
1. Xu höôùng cuûa doanh thu trong quaù khöù
2. Nhöõng döï baùo veà kinh teá vó moâ
3. Tình hình caïnh tranh
4. Soá löôïng khu vöïc kinh doanh môùi so vôùi khu
vöïc kinh doanh cuõ (New versus old store mix)
5-6

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Income Statements
(in millions) 2005 2004 2003
Sales.......................................................................................... $46,839 $42,025 $37,410
Cost of goods sold ..................................................................... 31.445 28.389 25.498
Gross profit................................................................................ 15.394 13.636 11.912
Selling, general and administrative expense ............................. 10.534 9.379 8.134
Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................... 1.259 1.098 967
Interest expense......................................................................... 570 556 584
Income before tax ...................................................................... 3.031 2.603 2.227
Income tax expense.................................................................... 1.146 984 851
Income (loss) from extraordinary items
and discontinued operations................................................. 1.313 190 247
Net income................................................................................. $ 3,198 $ 1,809 $ 1,623
Outstanding shares ................................................................... 891 912 910

Selected Ratios (in percent)

Sales growth............................................................................ 11,455% 12,336%
Gross profit margin.................................................................. 32,866 32,447 5-7
Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales ................. 22,49 22,318
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ........................... 6,333 5,245
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt .............................. 5,173 4,982
Income
ÑAÏI tax
HOÏCexpense/Pretax income...........................................
KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH 37,809 37,803
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Quaù trình laäp döï baùo
(The Projection Process)
Döï baùo baùo caùo KQHÑKD
Caùc böôùc thöïc hieän:
1. Döï baùo doanh thu
2. Döï baùo giaù voán haøng baùn vaø lôïi nhuaän goäp, söû duïng
giaù trò bình quaân cuûa tyû leä lôïi nhuaän goäp treân doanh thu
3. Döï baùo chi phí BH vaø QLDN, söû duïng giaù trò bình quaân
cuûa caùc chæ tieâu naøy tính treân doanh thu
4. Döï baùo chi phí khaáu hao döïa treân moät tyû leä khaáu hao bình
quaân tính cho caùc taøi saûn coù theå khaáu hao ñöôïc (giaù trò
ñaàu naêm)
5. Döï baùo chi phí laõi vay döïa treân moät tyû leä laõi suaát tính
treân caùc khoaûn nôï chòu laõi (ñaàu naêm)
6. Döï baùo chi phí thueá TNDN döïa treân tyû leä bình quaân cuûa 5-8
chi phí thueá TNDN trong quaù khöù tính treân lôïi nhuaän tröôùc
thueá
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

1. Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455

2. Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%
3. Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
4. Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
5. Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328 5-9

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

1. Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455

2. Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%
3. Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
4. Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
5. Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328 5-10

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
(in millions) 2005 2004 2003
Cash ..................................................................................
$ 2,245 $ 708 $ 758
Receivables .......................................................................5,069 4,621 5,565
Inventories .........................................................................
5,384 4,531 4,760
Other current assets .......................................................... 1,224 3,092 852
Total current assets.......................................................13,922 12,952 11,935
Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).............................. 22,272 19,880 20,936

The Projection Process

Accumulated depreciation ................................................. 5,412 4,727 5,629
Net property, plant, and equipment ................................... 16,860 15,153 15,307
Other assets ......................................................................1,511 3,311 1,361
Total assets .......................................................................
$32,293 $31,416 $28,603
Accounts payable............................................................... $ 5,779 $ 4,956 $ 4,684
Current portion of long-term debt......................................504 863 975
Accrued expenses .............................................................. 1,633 1,288 1,545
Income taxes & other ......................................................... 304 1,207 319
Total current liabilities .................................................. 8,220 8,314 7,523
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities........................ 2,010 1,815 1,451
Long-term debt.................................................................. 9,034 10,155 10,186
Total liabilities ..............................................................19,264 20,284 19,160
Common stock ...................................................................74 76 76
Additional paid-in capital..................................................1,810
Retained earnings .............................................................
Shareholders’ equity......................................................13,029
11,145 Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
1,530
9,526
11,132
1,256
8,111
9,443
Total liabilities and net worth ............................................ $32,293 $31,416 $28,603

Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................................... 9.240 9.094 6.722
Inventory turnover rate.....................................................5.840 6.266 5.357
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................................... 5.441 5.728 5.444
Accrued expenses turnover rate ....................................... 28.683 32.628 24.214
Taxes payable/Tax expense...............................................
26.527% 122.663% 37.485%
Dividends per share .........................................................
$ 0.310 $ 0.260 $ 0.240
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...................... 3,012 2,671 3,189

1. Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455

CAPEX/Sales ....................................................................
6.431% 6.356% 8.524%

2. Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%

3. Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
4. Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
5. Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328 5-11

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

(in millions) Forecasting Step 2006 Estimate

Income statement
Total revenues......................................................................................... 1 $52,204
Cost of goods sold .................................................................................. 3 35,047
Gross profit............................................................................................. 2 17,157
Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................ 4 11,741
Depreciation and amortization expense .................................................. 5 1,410
Interest expense...................................................................................... 6 493
Income before tax ................................................................................... 7 3,513
Income tax expense................................................................................. 8 1,328
Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ...... 9 0
Net income.............................................................................................. 10 $ 2,185
Outstanding shares ......................................................................... 891
Forecasting Assumptions (in percent)
Sales growth........................................................................................... 1 11.455%
Gross profit margin................................................................................. 1 32.866
Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ............................... 1 22.49
5-12
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E .......................................... 1 6.333
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt............................................. 1 5.173
Income tax expense/Pretax income ......................................................... 1 37.809
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Quaù trình laäp döï baùo
(The Projection Process)
Döï baùo baûng caân ñoái keá toaùn
Caùc böôùc thöïc hieän:
1. Döï baùo caùc taøi saûn ngaén haïn (khoâng phaûi tieàn), söû duïng döï
baùo veà doanh thu vaø giaù voán haøng baùn vaø caùc tyû soá thích hôïp
veà voøng quay taøi saûn.
2. Taøi saûn coá ñònh taêng cuøng vôùi söï gia taêng veà caùc khoaûn chi
tieâu cho ñaàu tö (capital expenditures), ñöôïc öôùc tính töø nhöõng xu
höôùng trong quaù khö hay thoâng tin thu thaäp töø phaàn MD&A
(Management’s Discussion and Analysis) cuûa baùo caùo taøi chính.
3. Döï baùo nôï ngaén haïn, söû duïng döï baùo veà doanh thu vaø giaù voán
haøng baùn cuõng nhö caùc tyû soá veà voøng quay taøi saûn phuø hôïp.
4. Phaàn nôï daøi haïn ñeán haïn traû ñöôïc caên cöù töø thuyeát minh baùo
caùo taøi chính - lieân quan ñeán nôï daøi haïn.
5. Ñoái vôùi caùc khoaûn nôï ngaén haïn ñöôïc giaû söû laø khoâng thay ñoåi
so vôùi naêm tröôùc ngoaïi tröø chuùng coù nhöõng xu höôùng thay ñoåi 5-13
ñaùng keå.

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Quaù trình laäp döï baùo
(The Projection Process)
Döï baùo baûng caân ñoái keá toaùn

6. Giaû söû soá dö nôï daøi haïn laø baèng vôùi soá dö naêm tröôùc
tröø ñi phaàn nôï daøi haïn ñeán haïn traû ñaõ tính töø böôùc 4.
7. Giaû söû caùc khoaûn nôï daøi haïn khaùc baèng vôùi naêm tröôùc
ngoaïi tröø chuùng coù nhöõng xu höôùng thay ñoåi ñaùng keå.
8. Giaû söû döï ñoaùn ban ñaàu veà coå phieáu thöôøng laø baèng vôùi
naêm tröôùc
9. Giaû söû lôïi nhuaän chöa phaân phoái (retained earnings) laø baèng
vôùi soá dö naêm tröôùc coäng theâm (hoaëc tröø ñi) laõi (loã) vaø
tröø ñi coå töùc döï kieán.
10. Giaû söû caùc khoaûn voán chuû sôû höõu khaùc laø khoâng ñoåi so
vôùi naêm tröôùc ngoaïi tröø chuùng coù nhöõng xu höôùng thay 5-14
ñoåi ñaùng keå.
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
(in millions) 2005 2004 2003
Cash ..................................................................................
$ 2,245 $ 708 $ 758
Receivables .......................................................................5,069 4,621 5,565
Inventories .........................................................................
5,384 4,531 4,760
Other current assets .......................................................... 1,224 3,092 852
Total current assets.......................................................13,922 12,952 11,935
Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).............................. 22,272 19,880 20,936
Accumulated depreciation ................................................. 5,412 4,727 5,629
Net property, plant, and equipment ................................... 16,860 15,153 15,307
Other assets ......................................................................1,511 3,311 1,361
Total assets .......................................................................
$32,293 $31,416 $28,603
Accounts payable............................................................... $ 5,779 $ 4,956 $ 4,684
Current portion of long-term debt......................................504 863 975
Accrued expenses .............................................................. 1,633 1,288 1,545
Income taxes & other ......................................................... 304 1,207 319
Total current liabilities .................................................. 8,220 8,314 7,523
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities........................ 2,010 1,815 1,451
Long-term debt.................................................................. 9,034 10,155 10,186
Total liabilities ..............................................................19,264 20,284 19,160
Common stock ...................................................................74 76 76
Additional paid-in capital..................................................1,810 1,530 1,256
Retained earnings ............................................................. 11,145 9,526 8,111
Shareholders’ equity......................................................13,029 11,132 9,443
Total liabilities and net worth ............................................ $32,293 $31,416 $28,603

Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................................... 9.240 9.094 6.722
Inventory turnover rate.....................................................5.840 6.266 5.357
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................................... 5.441 5.728 5.444 5-15
Accrued expenses turnover rate ....................................... 28.683 32.628 24.214
Taxes payable/Tax expense...............................................
26.527% 122.663% 37.485%
Dividends per share .........................................................
$ 0.310 $ 0.260 $ 0.240
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...................... 3,012 2,671 3,189
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH....................................................................
CAPEX/Sales 6.431% 6.356% 8.524%
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Steps in Projection (Target)
1 Receivables: $5,650 = $52,204 (Sales)/9.24 (Receivable turnover).
2 Inventories: $6,001 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.84 (Inventory turnover).
3 Other current assets: no change.
4 PP&E: $25,629 = $22,272 (Prior year’s balance) + $3,357 (Capital expenditure
estimate: estimated sales of $52,204 = 6.431% CAPEX/sales percentage).
5 Accumulated depreciation: $6,822 = $5,412 (Prior balance) + $1,410 (Depreciation
estimate).
6 Net PP&E: $18,807 = $25,629 - $6,822.
7 Other long-term assets: no change.
8 Accounts payable: $6,441 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.441 (Payable
turnover).
9 Current portion of long-term debt: amount reported in long-term debt footnote
as the current maturity for 2006.
10 Accrued expenses: $1,820 $52,204 (Sales)/28.683 (Accrued expense turnover).
11 Taxes payable: $352 = $1,328 (Tax expense) x 26.527% (Tax payable/Tax
expense).
12 Deferred income taxes and other liabilities: no change.
13 Long-term debt: $8,283 = $9,034 (Prior year’s long-term debt) - $751 (Scheduled
current maturities from step 9).
14 Common stock: no change.
15 Additional paid-in capital: no change.
16 Retained earnings: $13,054 = $11,145 (Prior year’s retained earnings) + $2,185 5-16
(Projected net income) - $276 (Estimated dividends of $0.31 per share x 891
million shares).
17 Cash: amount needed to balance total liabilities and equity less steps (1)–(7).
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
Forecasting 2006 2005
(in millions) Step Estimate
Cash .......................................................................... 17 $ 1,402 $ 2,245
Receivables ............................................................... 1 5,650 5,069
Inventories................................................................. 2 6,001 5,384
Other current assets .................................................. 3 1,224 1,224
Total current assets ..................................... 14,277 13,922
Property, plant, and equipment.................................. 4 25,629 22,272
Accumulated depreciation ......................................... 5 6,822 5,412
Net property, plant, and equipment ........................... 6 18,807 16,860
Other assets .............................................................. 7 1,511 1,511
Total assets ................................................ $34,595 $32,293
Accounts payable....................................................... 8 $ 6,441 $ 5,779
Current portion of long-term debt.............................. 9 751 504
Accrued expenses ...................................................... 10 1,820 1,633
Income taxes & other ................................................. 11 352 304
Total current liabilities.................................... 9,364 8,220
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities................ 12 2,010 2,010
Long-term debt.......................................................... 13 8,283 9,034
Total liabilities ............................................. 19,657 19,264
Common stock ........................................................... 14 74 74
Additional paid-in capital.......................................... 15 1,810 1,810
Retained earnings ..................................................... 16 13,054 11,145
Shareholders’ equity ...................................... 14,938 13,029
Total liabilities and net worth......................... $34,595 $32,293
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................... 9.240 9.240
Inventory turnover rate....................................
Accounts payable turnover rate .......................
5.840
5.441
5.840
5.441
5-17
Accrued expenses turnover rate ...................... 28.683 28.683
Taxes payable/Tax expense............................. 26.527% 26.527%
Dividends per share......................................... $ 0.310 $ 0.310
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP.Capital
HOÀ CHÍexpenditures
MINH (CAPEX)—in millions......... 3,357 3,012
Khoa Keá toaùn CAPEX/Sales ................................................. 6.431% 6.431% ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Quaù trình laäp döï baùo
(The Projection Process)

Döï baùo baûng caân ñoái keá toaùn

Neáu soá dö tieàn döï kieán laø quaù cao hay quaù thaáp,
nhöõng ñieàu chænh tieáp theo caàn phaûi ñöôïc thöïc
hieän ñeå:
1. Ñaàu tö phaàn tieàn thöøa vaøo chöùng khoaùn
ngaén haïn hay caùc khoaûn ñaàu tö ngaén haïn
khaùc
2. Giaûm caùc khoaûn nôï phaûi traû daøi haïn
vaø/hoaëc voán chuû sôû höõu ñeå giöõ ñoøn baåy
taøi chính thoáng nhaát vôùi nhöõng naêm tröôùc. 5-18

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
The Projection Process

Target Corporation Projected Statement of Cash Flows

5-19

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Quaù trình laäp döï baùo
(The Projection Process)

Phaân tích ñoä nhaïy (sensitivity analysis)

 Thay
Thay ñoåi
ñoåi caùc
caùc giaû
giaû ñònh
ñònh ñeå
ñeå tìm
tìm ra
ra aûnh
aûnh höôûng
höôûng lôùn
lôùn
nhaát
nhaát ñoái
ñoái vôùi
vôùi keát
keát quaû
quaû döï
döï baùo
baùo veà
veà lôïi
lôïi nhuaän
nhuaän vaø
vaø
doøng
doøngtieàn.
tieàn.

 Khaûo
Khaûosaùt
saùtnhöõng
nhöõngnhaân
nhaântoá
toáaûnh
aûnhhöôûng.
höôûng.

 Chuaån
Chuaån bòbò caùc
caùc tình
tình huoáng
huoáng döïdöï kieán,
kieán, tình
tình huoáng
huoáng toát,
toát,
tình
tình huoáng
huoáng xaáu
xaáu ñeå
ñeå ñöa
ñöa ra
ra phaïm
phaïm vi
vi bieán
bieán ñoäng
ñoäng cuûa
cuûa
caùc
caùcchæ
chætieâu
tieâuphaân
phaântích.
tích.
5-20

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Vận dụng phaân tích trieån voïng –
Moâ hình ñònh giaù lôïi nhuaân coøn laïi
(Residual Income Valuation Model)
Moâ
Moâhình
hìnhñònh
ñònhgiaù
giaùtheo
theolôïi
lôïinhuaän
nhuaäncoøn
coønlaïi
laïi(RIVM)
(RIVM)xaùcxaùcñònhñònh
giaù
giaù trò
trò coå
coå phieáu
phieáu (equity
(equity value)
value) taïi
taïi thôøi
thôøi ñieåm
ñieåm tt (V
(Vt)t) baèng
baèng
vôùi
vôùi toång
toång cuûa
cuûa giaù
giaù trò
trò soå
soå saùch
saùch cuûa
cuûa coåcoå phieáu
phieáu vaø
vaø giaù
giaù trò
trò
hieän
hieäntaïi
taïicuûa
cuûacaùc
caùckhoaûn
khoaûnlôïilôïinhuaän
nhuaäncoøn
coønlaïi
laïidöï
döïkieán
kieán::

Trong
TrongñoùñoùBVBVt tlaø
laøgiaùgiaùtròtròsoå
soåsaùch
saùchcuûa
cuûacoå coåphieáu
phieáuvaøo
vaøothôøi
thôøiñieåm
ñieåm
cuối
cuối kỳ
kỳ thứ
thứ t,t, RI
RIt t++nnlaø
laø lôïi
lôïi nhuaän
nhuaän coøn
coøn laïi
laïi trong
trong kyø
kyø tt ++ n,n, kk laø
laø laõi
laõi
suaát
suaátsöû
söûduïng
duïngvoán.voán. Lôïi
Lôïi nhuaän
nhuaän coøn
coøn laïi
laïi của
của kỳ
kỳ thứ
thứ tt laø
laø phaàn
phaàn5-21
coøn
coøn laïi
laïi cuûa
cuûa lôïilôïi nhuaän
nhuaän thuaàn
thuaàn ((Ni
Nit)) tröø
tröø ñiñi phaàn
phaàn chichi phí phí söû
söû
t
duïng
duïng voán
voán tính
tính treân
treân giaù
giaù trò
trò soå
soå saùch
saùch cuûa
cuûa coå
coå phieáu
phieáu đầu đầu kỳ kỳ
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
thứ t : RI = NI - (k x BV )
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Vận dụng phaân tích trieån voïng –
Moâ hình ñònh giaù lôïi nhuaân coøn laïi
(Residual Income Valuation Model - RIVM)
Moät
Moätcaùch
caùchñôn
ñôngiaûn
giaûnnhaát,
nhaát,coù
coùtheå
theåñònh
ñònhgiaù
giaùcoå
coåphieáu
phieáu
döïa
döïavaøo
vaøodöï
döïbaùo
baùocaùc
caùcchæ
chætieâu
tieâusau
sauñaây:
ñaây:
1.
1. Toác
Toácñoä
ñoätaêng
taêngtröôûng
tröôûngdoanh
doanhthu.
thu.
2.
2. Tyû
Tyûsuaát
suaátlôïi
lôïinhuaän
nhuaäntreân
treândoanh
doanhthu.
thu.
3.
3. Voøng
Voøngquay
quayvoán
voánluaân
luaânchuyeån.
chuyeån.
4.
4. Voøng
Voøngquay
quaytaøi
taøisaûn
saûndaøi
daøihaïn.
haïn.
5.
5. Ñoøn
Ñoønbaåy
baåytaøi
taøichính
chính(Taøi
(Taøisaûn
saûn//Voán
VoánCSH).
CSH).
6.
6. Laõi
Laõisuaát
suaátsöû
söûduïng
duïngvoán
voáncoå
coåñoâng
ñoâng(Cost
(Costof
ofequity
equity 5-22
capital)
capital)
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 9-23

5-23

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Nhöõng xu höôùng cuûa caùc nhaân toá giaù trò
(Trends in value drivers)
Moâ
Moâhình
hìnhRIVM
RIVMñònh
ñònhnghóa
nghóagiaù
giaùtrò
tròcoøn
coønlaïi
laïinhö
nhösau:
sau:
RI
RIt t ==NI
NIt t––(k
(kXXBV
BVt-1t-1))
==(ROE
(ROEt t––k)k)XXBV
BVt-1t-1
Trong
Trongñoù:
ñoù: ROE
ROEt t ==NI
NIt t//BV
BVt-1t-1

--Giaù
Giaùcoå coåphieáu
phieáuchæ chæbò bòaûnh
aûnhhöôûng
höôûngkhikhiROE
ROE≠≠kk
--Giaù
Giaùtrò tròcuûa
cuûacoå coåñoâng
ñoângñöôïc
ñöôïcgia
giataêng
taêngkhi
khiROE
ROE >>kk
--ROE
ROElaø laømoät
moätnhaânnhaântoá toágiaù
giaùtrò
trò(value
(valuedriver),
driver),coù
coùcaùc
caùcthaønh
thaønhphaàn
phaàn
sau:
sau:
--Tyû
Tyûsuaát
suaátlôïilôïinhuaän
nhuaäntreân
treândoanh
doanhthu
thu
--Voøng
Voøngquay quaytaøi taøisaûn
saûn
--Ñoøn
Ñoønbaåy baåytaøi taøichính
chính
Hai
Haiquanquansaùtsaùtthöôøng
thöôøngthaáy:thaáy: 5-24
--ROE
ROEthöøông
thöøôngcoù coùhoäi
hoäituï
tuïveà
veàgiaù
giaùtrò
tròcaân
caânbaèng
baèng(ví
(víduï:
duï:giaù
giaùtrò
trò
bình
bìnhTEÁ
ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH
quaân
quaân cuûa
cuûa
TP. HOÀ CHÍ
ngaønh) trong daøi haïn.
MINH ngaønh) trong daøi haïn.
Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Nhöõng xu höôùng cuûa caùc nhaân toá giaù trò
(Trends in value drivers)
Söï hoäi tuï cuûa ROE

5-25

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Nhöõng xu höôùng cuûa caùc nhaân toá giaù trò
(Trends in value drivers)

Söï hoäi tuï cuûa tyû suaát lôïi nhuaän treân doanh
thu

5-26

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
Nhöõng xu höôùng cuûa caùc nhaân toá giaù trò
(Trends in value drivers)

Söï hoäi tuï cuûa voøng quay taøi saûn

5-27

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020
 Kết thú c chương 5!

5-28

ÑAÏI HOÏC KINH TEÁ TP. HOÀ CHÍ MINH

Khoa Keá toaùn ©Leâ Ñình Tröïc 2020