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Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering
8th International
Conference on
Engineering,
Project, and Product
Management
(EPPM 2017)
Proceedings
Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering
Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering (LNME) publishes the latest develop-
ments in Mechanical Engineering—quickly, informally and with high quality.
Original research reported in proceedings and post-proceedings represents the core
of LNME. Also considered for publication are monographs, contributed volumes
and lecture notes of exceptionally high quality and interest. Volumes published in
LNME embrace all aspects, subfields and new challenges of mechanical
engineering. Topics in the series include:
• Engineering Design
• Machinery and Machine Elements
• Mechanical Structures and Stress Analysis
• Automotive Engineering
• Engine Technology
• Aerospace Technology and Astronautics
• Nanotechnology and Microengineering
• Control, Robotics, Mechatronics
• MEMS
• Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
• Dynamical Systems, Control
• Fluid Mechanics
• Engineering Thermodynamics, Heat and Mass Transfer
• Manufacturing
• Precision Engineering, Instrumentation, Measurement
• Materials Engineering
• Tribology and Surface Technology
123
Editor
Sümer Şahin
Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences
Bahçeşehir University
Beşiktaş, Istanbul
Turkey
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG
part of Springer Nature
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
v
vi Preface
Conference Chair
Prof. Wejdan Abu-Elhaija
Organization
Scientific Committee
Chair
Prof. Subhi Bazlamit, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Co-Chair
Prof. Erwin Pesch, Professor, Management Information Systems, University of
Siegen, Germany
Co-Chair
Dr. Zoubir Hamici, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Co-Chair
Dr. Saeb Al-Ganideh, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Ernest Abbott, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Dr. Joanna Ejdys, Bialystok University of Technology, Poland
Dr. Katarzyna Halicka, Bialystok University of Technology, Poland
Dr. Alicja Gudanowska, Bialystok University of Technology, Poland
Dr. Julia Siderska, Bialystok University of Technology, Poland
Dr. Arkadiusz Jurczuk, Bialystok University of Technology, Poland
Dr. Nicholas Chileshe, University of South Australia, Australia
Dr. David Chua, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Dr. Agata Czarnigowska, Lublin University of Technology, Poland
Dr. John Smallwood, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa
Dr. Jozef Gawlik, Kracow University of Technology, Poland
Dr. Hsiang-Hsi Huang, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology,
Taiwan
Dr. Sittimont Kanjanabootra, University of Newcastle, Australia
ix
x Organizing Committee
Organizing Committee
Chair
Dr. Hesham Ahmad, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Co-Chair
Dr. Chien-Ho Ko, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology,
Taiwan
Eng. Amal Qassed, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Mr. Ahmad Al-Abbadi, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Najm A. Najm, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Loai Dabbour, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Mr. Hani A. Abu Elrub, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Mr. Malik Sarayreh, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Mousa Bani-Baker, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Mohammed M. Yassin, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Nabeel Abu Shaban, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Abdul Sattar Yousif, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Ahmad Alaboushi, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Mr. Ayman Alkhadar, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Arch. Dana Shreim, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Dr. Yousef Jaradat, Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Jordan
Organizing Committee xi
Sponsors
Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan
Association of Engineering, Project, and Production Management (EPPM)
ARAB BANK
Jordan Engineers Association
Jordan Tourism Board
Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Électriques (CIGRE)
Keynote
xiii
xiv Keynote
lives? Does it serve the underprivileged by giving them the same access to health
care as everyone else and help save their lives too? Every large city in the world
today is dotted with new housing and construction projects, but how many are
meant to shelter the homeless? Are new factories and assembly lines providing
enough jobs to the unemployed or are they rather creators of unemployment by
adopting automation and robotics without first examining the consequences?
I guess my point here is that engineering, production, and project management
are definitely tools that are necessary, even imperative, for our development and
progression as a human race. However, if these tools are not inclusive but rather
serve only a certain privileged group that can afford them, the goal of sharing our
technologies and resources together to benefit the entire human family could remain
a distant dream.
Also, let not our focus on a profit-making model of doing business, which
includes production and project management, blind us to the fact that the massive,
steadily growing disparity between the haves and the have-nots today is a testament
to our lack of focus on the well-being, prosperity, and success for all humankind.
Gordan Stanley Brown, the great professor of Electrical Engineering at MIT, put is
rather eloquently when he said, “Engineering is not merely knowing and being
knowledgeable, like a walking encyclopedia; engineering is not merely analysis;
engineering is practicing the art of the organizing forces of technological change.
Engineers operate at the interface between science and society.” In other words,
engineers are meant to, and must make it their goal to use the tools of science to
serve society. What is any progress, if it does not hold the promise of equality,
dignity and a decent livelihood for all? I would argue that all progress, including
technological progress, cannot be truly successful if it does not recognize that all
humans, irrespective of their social status, must have access to its benefits. In fact, I
would go so far as to say, engineering, production, and projects, apart from relying
on the regular elements of organization, strategies, planning, training, and budget,
need to make “empathy” and “social responsibility” a fundamental and essential
feature of their studies and proposals.
The 10 top inventions that changed the world as listed by National Geographic
are:
1. Printing Press
2. Light Bulb
3. Aeroplane
4. Personal computer
5. Vaccine
6. Automobile
7. Clock
8. Telephone
9. Refrigeration
10. Camera
xvi Keynote
All of the above are indeed engineering feats that will go down in the annals of
history as having completely transformed human existence. Today, I would add to
the list the World Wide Web, space technology, quantum computing, artificial
intelligence, indeed this amazing list could go on.
But I stop here to laud scientists and engineers who revolutionized the world,
and yet others who stood on the shoulders of giants and continued to improve,
develop, and transform it through their incredible knowledge, imagination, and
innovation.
I reiterate what has been said before that “Engineering is the art of directing the
great sources of power in nature for the use and convenience of man.” Indeed, I ask
all the illustrious scientists and engineers gathered here today to use this great and
noble profession as a tool for bringing about a social renewal that promises equality
and dignity to all; to harness its inevitable disruption and make it positively
transformative for all people.
Contents
xvii
xviii Contents
1 Introduction
Crowd safety is a major concern in facilities management and to those who attend
events in large buildings and at venues such as sport stadiums, concert halls, and
religious events (i.e. Hajj). Crowd safety can be achieved when there are no inju-
rious or serious incidents outcomes experienced by any individual in the crowd. In
large buildings used by large numbers of people, there are many threats and dif-
ferent levels of risk that require effective management. A flaw or hazard in large
buildings or spaces during an event has resulted in many crowd disasters across the
world. Two key existing crowd safety models were identified; FIST [5], and six
dimensions and loci of crowd disaster [4]. These models include important factors
that may cause risk to crowd safety and lead to crowd disaster. The acronym FIST
is defined as: Force (F), Information (I), Space (S) and Time (T) while the six
dimensions and loci of crowd disaster model involve 6 factors (Stampede, Riot,
Structural and Mechanical failure, Terrorist attacks, Explosion (fire, chemical) and
Natural disaster). Two more factors have been added from analyses of previous
studies and major crowd incidents including user behavior and perceived safety.
The research in this paper used the Holy Mosque during Hajj event as a case study
in order to test, verify and to measure the reliability of the factors. The Holy
Mosque is the largest mosque in the world, at approximately 356,800 square meters
and has 32 doors. It can accommodate around 1.2 million worshipers at the same
time. Hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam which is mainly concentrated in four
holy places: The Holy Mosque, the Mina, Muzdalifah and Arafat. It takes place
once a year in a period ranging between 4 and 6 days. The Holy Mosque is a large
building and has unique characteristics that facilitate an in-depth understanding of
risk factors that may affect crowd safety.
Human stampede is a phenomenon that has occurred many times around the world.
It has been associated with grave consequences such as loss of life, serious injury,
property damage, psychological trauma and distress. Stampede can occur in many
types of large gatherings including political rallies, social events, sporting events or
religious events (pilgrimages, etc.). Several studies have reported that religious
events have seen the worst incidents of human stampede with most incidents
occurring in developing countries. Sociological theorists have stressed that indi-
viduals lose their sense of responsibility during a stampede situation. Studies on
crowd disaster have shown that when the crowds need to turn in order to change the
direction (e.g. in corners and stairwells), there is a risk of trampling and/or stam-
pede to occur. They further state that when such restricted passage has sudden
changes in the escape direction, it could also trigger trampling and stampede as
people rush to flee.
Riot is a risky phenomenon, with many possible causes of incidents. The National
Disaster Management Authority of India, defined riot as “a form of civil disorder
characterized often by what is thought of as disorganized groups lashing out in a
sudden and intense rash of violence against authority, property or people”. It has
frequently occurred in some part of the world. One example of a riot occurred in
1992 in Los Angeles in which resulted in 52 people dead and 2500 injured as well
as at least $446 million in property damage. Riots are often aggressive and violent,
they usually start peacefully and then transform into a violent mob. Once they start,
it is likely impossible to control them.
Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Perceived Risk … 3
The failure of any temporary or permanent structure in a crowded venue can have
an overwhelming effect. It has been indicated that structural failure is not uncom-
mon. Insufficient design, poor construction, inadequate codes of practice and
overloading have all caused significant failures. According to the National Disaster
Management Authority of India (NDMA), structural failures have also been cited as
reason for crowd disasters on numerous occasions.
In recent decades, terrorism has been increasing worldwide. Most studies on ter-
rorism have lacked theoretical and empirical analysis. Furthermore, accepted def-
initions of terrorism are unclear but several elements are shared in common. These
common elements refer to the violence or threat of actions that result in fatalities
and serious injuries. Although many terrorist events seem irrational, these events
must have been planned. According to the current definition of the U.S. Department
of Defense (US DoD 2015): terrorism is the unlawful use of violence or threat of
violence, often motivated by religious, political, or other ideological beliefs, to
instill fear and coerce governments or societies in pursuit of goals that are usually
political. The Oxford English Dictionary defines terror as ‘the state of being
terrified or greatly frightened; intense fear, fright or dread’. Nowadays, terrorism
has become one of the main risk dimensions which requires safety planning. It is a
veritable threat which targets public venues particularly, crowded places including
sports and, religious events.
Fire and explosion are major accidents which are classified as technological dis-
aster. The International Labour Office (ILO), defined major accident as “an
occurrence such as a major emission, fire or explosion resulting from uncontrolled
developments in the course of an industrial activity, leading to a serious danger to
man, immediate or delayed, inside or outside the establishment, and to the envi-
ronment, and involving one or more dangerous substances”. Many technological
disasters have occurred around the world, such as: the fire that swept through a tent
in Mina, Makkah during Hajj in 1997; the Gothenburg, Sweden, Disco in 1998; the
Rhode Island Rock concert in 2003. A number of disaster cases were reviewed by
4 M. Alkhadim et al.
the researcher with respect to the fire and behavior of the people within the fire
situation. These disasters included the Beverly Hills Supper Club in 1977;
Summerland Woolworth’s in 1937; Bradford King’s Cross in 1985. In these cases,
the fire made people to panic in response to save their lives; and it is the panic that
resulted in fatalities. For example, due to behavior of the people who panicked at
the Beverly Hills Supper Club event in Kentucky, USA in 1977, 300 people were
stampeded.
Natural disasters are catastrophic events which occur due to natural forces and are
not controllable by mankind. Examples include flood, climate change (heat waves
or cold waves), strong wind, volcanoes, earthquakes, etc. Asia and the Pacific are
the regions most exposed to natural disasters. Most natural disasters result from
heavy rains. Another natural disaster threat comes from climate change. Several
studies have shown the significant association between climate change (e.g. high
temperature) and mortality. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change 7 report in 2014, the increase of heat and decrease of cold due to climate
change will result in increase of mortality in some parts of the world. Numerous
studies have discovered that exposure to heat waves may cause cramps, fluid loss,
fainting, heat exhaustion, dehydration, heat stress, heat stroke and ultimately
mortality. Within a short time of exposure to high temperatures, people affected by
heat may suffer fatalities. The elderly (aged 60 years or older), particularly women,
and those with chronic lung diseases are more affected. High temperatures are likely
to affect people physically and psychologically. It can increase aggressive behavior
by directly increasing feelings of hostility and indirectly increase aggressive
thoughts. This could be worse within large gathering events including sport, reli-
gious and political events.
Perceived force refers to the feeling of the individual while within a crowd that may
be produced by either hearing, seeing or sensing the force. The force may reach
such a high level that it cannot be controlled or resisted because of crowd pressure.
It has been emphasized that crowd compression, compressive asphyxia and a
subsequent loss of footing or inability to move are the main reasons of deaths
during an event (not by trampling). Berlonghi [3], claims that serious injuries and
fatalities may occur from suffocation when people in a crowd are being swept along
with movement and compressed. Generally, the forces that can be created when
density exceeds a certain level may lead to a serious incident.
Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Perceived Risk … 5
In large buildings, it is crucial to obtain real time information about the crowd
condition including crowd action, reactions whether real or perceived. Information
communicated to—or withheld from—the crowd can influence their perceived
safety. The communicating with the crowd is essential in maintaining order and
managing behavior. It was found that poor information prior to or during an event
has led to many crowd incidents. Information comprises all means of communi-
cation such as signs and announcements. Fruin [5], suggests that actions and
training of personnel, sights and sounds all affect group perceptions. Setting up a
communication center and a centralized crowd management system is good prac-
tice. Experts have highlighted that real-time information and communication are
significant factors in minimizing risk of crowd disasters.
Fruin [5], claimed that architects and engineers typically pay minimal attention to
planning people’s movement and perceptions but greater emphasis to meeting the
local building codes regarding space in large buildings involving physical facilities,
seating areas, corridors, stairs, escalators, and lifts. It has been shown that human
psychology usually undergoes a change when the capacity becomes high and the
venue does not have enough space to accommodate the crowd. Generally, when the
individuals within a crowd perceive risk or a possible disaster, they panic and move
to an exit ignoring alternative exits made available. Fruin [5], stated that within a
high- density crowd it is difficult to describe the psychological and physiological
pressure, and individuals may lose their control. Several studies have emphasized
that crowd density has an effect on perceived safety and on people’s behavior [1]. It
has been argued that insufficient or poor use of space is considered a key risk factor
to crowd safety.
Poor real time information and interventions are key risk factors to crowd safety [5].
Failure to detect the behavior of the crowd at the right time can lead to serious
incidents. Time plays an important role, for example, the inflow of the pedestrian
compared to the rapid egress is much less while the pedestrian is leaving an event. It
has been emphasized that the flow of the pedestrians must not exceed the capacity of
the spaces available. It was indicated that lack of consideration is sometimes given to
how crowd flow and density can be successfully managed by controlling timings.
6 M. Alkhadim et al.
Feeling unsafe during an event can drive people to panic from real or perceived risk
through acting unusually by pushing and shoving. Studies in urban design have
identified several factors that may have an influence on perceived safety including
characteristics of the environment, the physical condition, and the configuration of
spaces. The perception could differ from one person to another, for instance women
and older people have a more diverse sense of safety compared with others. Crowd
studies have defined the perceived crowding as “the psychological counterpart to
population density” is closely tied to perceived safety. There is a negative corre-
lation between perceived safety and perceptions of crowding; people’s sense of
safety declines as perceptions of crowding increase.
Crowd behavior refers to the way in which persons act or behave towards others.
Berlonghi [3], suggested important factors that can influence crowd behaviors and
play an important role in designing, management and crowd control at events.
These factors include location and time of the event, size of the crowd, crowd
mobility, demographics of the crowd, schedule of event activities, crowd movement
models, weather conditions and density of crowd in different areas. At some events,
the crowd can turn into a mob and become aggressive. The aggressive behaviour
may be in response to such strictures or emotional triggers such as elation, fear, or
anger, and may be exaggerated by impairments such as drug or alcohol intoxication
and lack of accurate information. Aggressive behavior may also result from
physical discomfort due to environmental conditions such as heat, cold, noise, etc.,
and may become more likely if others are displaying aggressive behavior and are
either rewarded or go unpunished. Psychological experiments, they have shown that
when people get a high level of arousal responsibility is diffused, people may act
irrationally and not be able to control their own behaviour [3]. Those people may
start throwing objects, screaming and pushing people while some may turn into
mobs carrying out theft, vandalism, rioting, group violence leading to a potential
crowd disaster.
3 Method
Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) is used as statistical technique for this study.
This statistical technique does not specify variables to factors instead the factors are
determined by the researcher based on the theory being tested prior to any results
Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Perceived Risk … 7
being obtained. CFA is applied to test the theoretical pattern of the variables loading
on specific constructs and to show how well the theoretical specification of the
factors can match the reality (the actual data). CFA enables the research to accept or
reject the theory that has been studied [8]. 1940 pilgrims (both local and foreign)
were surveyed within the zone of Makkah during the Hajj of the year 2016 (1437
Arabic Calendar). The questionnaire covered thirteen sections: section one is
background information and sections two to thirteen are designed to test the per-
ceived risk factors to crowd safety. The items included in the questionnaire were
adapted from [1, 4, 5]. All the items were measured using a 5-point Likert scale
(1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree; or 1 = never occur to 5 = almost
always occurs). Several items were modified to attain the aim of the research.
To establish convergent validity, the model fit must be adequate, and the average
variance extracted (AVE) must exceed 0.50 [8]. Table 1 provides the result of the
model fit measures. Awang [2] recommend a comparative fit index (CFI) 0.90,
standardized root mean square residual (SRMR) 0.08, and root mean square
error of approximation (RMSEA) 0.06 for acceptable model fit. The values
included in Table 1 indicate that the model is fit and all measures of CFI = 0.940,
SRMR = 0.046, and RMSEA = 0.045 have achieved the required level. Also, the
results of AVE for all constructs as illustrated in Table 2 have achieved the standard
minimum required level of 0.50.
8 M. Alkhadim et al.
Fig. 1 The path diagram on the confirmatory factor analysis for all variables
To establish discriminant validity three criteria must be met [7, 8]. The
Fornell-Larcker test needs the square root AVE for each construct to be greater than
any inter-construct correlations [6]. All constructs for this study have met this
criterion. The square root of the AVE of the construct is greater than its estimates of
correlation as presented in Fig. 2.
The other two criteria for discriminant validity that must also be met are the
Maximum Shared Squared Variance (MSV) and Average Shared Squared Variance
(ASV). Hair et al. [8], recommend that MSV and ASV must be less than the results
of AVE (MSV < AVE, ASV < AVE). The results of ASV and MSV as detailed in
Table 2 indicate that our measurement model is valid.
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had been burned, and who had taken shelter in a fortified house.[54]
But he fought with disadvantage against an enemy who must be
hunted before every battle. Some flourishing towns were burned.
John Monoco, a formidable savage, boasted that “he had burned
Medfield and Lancaster, and would burn Groton, Concord,
Watertown and Boston;” adding, “what me will, me do.” He did burn
Groton, but before he had executed the remainder of his threat he
was hanged, in Boston, in September, 1676.[55]
A still more formidable enemy was removed, in the same year, by
the capture of Canonchet, the faithful ally of Philip, who was soon
afterwards shot at Stonington. He stoutly declared to the
Commissioners that “he would not deliver up a Wampanoag, nor the
paring of a Wampanoag’s nail,” and when he was told that his
sentence was death, he said “he liked it well that he was to die
before his heart was soft, or he had spoken anything unworthy of
himself.”[56]
We know beforehand who must conquer in that unequal struggle.
The red man may destroy here and there a straggler, as a wild beast
may; he may fire a farmhouse, or a village; but the association of the
white men and their arts of war give them an overwhelming
advantage, and in the first blast of their trumpet we already hear the
flourish of victory. I confess what chiefly interests me, in the annals
of that war, is the grandeur of spirit exhibited by a few of the Indian
chiefs. A nameless Wampanoag who was put to death by the
Mohicans, after cruel tortures, was asked by his butchers, during the
torture, how he liked the war?—he said, “he found it as sweet as
sugar was to Englishmen.”[57]
The only compensation which war offers for its manifold mischiefs,
is in the great personal qualities to which it gives scope and
occasion. The virtues of patriotism and of prodigious courage and
address were exhibited on both sides, and, in many instances, by
women. The historian of Concord has preserved an instance of the
resolution of one of the daughters of the town. Two young farmers,
Abraham and Isaac Shepherd, had set their sister Mary, a girl of
fifteen years, to watch whilst they threshed grain in the barn. The
Indians stole upon her before she was aware, and her brothers were
slain. She was carried captive into the Indian country, but, at night,
whilst her captors were asleep, she plucked a saddle from under the
head of one of them, took a horse they had stolen from Lancaster,
and having girt the saddle on, she mounted, swam across the
Nashua River, and rode through the forest to her home.[58]
With the tragical end of Philip, the war ended. Beleaguered in his
own country, his corn cut down, his piles of meal and other provision
wasted by the English, it was only a great thaw in January, that,
melting the snow and opening the earth, enabled his poor followers
to come at the ground-nuts, else they had starved. Hunted by
Captain Church, he fled from one swamp to another; his brother, his
uncle, his sister, and his beloved squaw being taken or slain, he was
at last shot down by an Indian deserter, as he fled alone in the dark
of the morning, not far from his own fort.[59]
Concord suffered little from the war. This is to be attributed no
doubt, in part, to the fact that troops were generally quartered here,
and that it was the residence of many noted soldiers. Tradition finds
another cause in the sanctity of its minister. The elder Bulkeley was
gone. In 1659,[60] his bones were laid at rest in the forest. But the
mantle of his piety and of the people’s affection fell upon his son
Edward,[61] the fame of whose prayers, it is said, once saved
Concord from an attack of the Indian.[62] A great defence
undoubtedly was the village of Praying Indians, until this settlement
fell a victim to the envenomed prejudice against their countrymen.
The worst feature in the history of those years, is, that no man spake
for the Indian. When the Dutch, or the French, or the English royalist
disagreed with the Colony, there was always found a Dutch, or
French, or tory party,—an earnest minority,—to keep things from
extremity. But the Indian seemed to inspire such a feeling as the wild
beast inspires in the people near his den. It is the misfortune of
Concord to have permitted a disgraceful outrage upon the friendly
Indians settled within its limits, in February, 1676, which ended in
their forcible expulsion from the town.[63]
This painful incident is but too just an example of the measure
which the Indians have generally received from the whites. For them
the heart of charity, of humanity, was stone. After Philip’s death, their
strength was irrecoverably broken. They never more disturbed the
interior settlements, and a few vagrant families, that are now
pensioners on the bounty of Massachusetts, are all that is left of the
twenty tribes.
Wordsworth.
LETTER
TO MARTIN VAN BUREN,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES