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Моделі міжнародної торгівлі
Моделі міжнародної торгівлі
, МЕ-101 ФМЕіМ
Анотація
applied at the state level. The benefits and losses of starting or restricting
international trade are highlighted throughout the text. The key point of this research
is the study of the basic economic and mathematical models.
Ключові слова
Торгівля, фактори виробництва, модель, теорія, експорт, імпорт, витрати,
зовнішньоекономічна діяльність.
Ключевые слова
Торговля, факторы производства, модель, теория, экспорт, импорт,
расходы, внешнеэкономическая деятельность.
Key words
Trade, factors of production, model, theory, export, import, costs, foreign
economic activity.
Постановка проблеми
Міжнародна торгівля є однією з основних форм міжнародних
економічних відносин. У ній поєднуються торгівля як товарами, так і
послугами як транспортування, фінансування, бізнес та туризм. Моделі
міжнародної торгівлі призначені для опису зовнішньої торговельної діяльності
окремої країни або групи країн. Їх використовують для аналізу механізмів
зовнішньої торгівлі (за допомогою теорії та практики) та для прогнозування
відповідних торговельних потоків (згідно з емпіричними методами).
Problem
International trade is one of the main forms of international economic relations.
It combines trade in both goods and such services as transportation, financing,
business and tourism. International trade models are designed to describe the foreign
trade activities of an individual country or group of countries. They are used to
analyze the mechanisms of foreign trade (using theory and practice) and to predict
related trade flows (according to empirical methods).
УДК 519.86: 519.866 Голубик А.Ю., Мастеренко А.Д., МЕ-101 ФМЕіМ
Pe
T=
Pi
I =f (Y , Pi , PY , Z ),
Pi
відношення PY
. Форма залежності у функції найчастіше логарифмічна,
E=f (Y w , Pe , PW ),
M αi M βj
F ij=G ε ij ,
d δij
national prices. As a result, goods produced in the country become more expensive
and lose competitiveness in foreign markets. And declining exports, in turn, could
lead to a negative trade balance and the outflow of money from the country.
In contrast with mercantilism, A. Smith presented a new theory of trade
regulation - the theory of absolute advantages [2, p. 58]. Its essence is that countries
export those goods that they produce at lower cost (in the production of which they
have an absolute advantage), and import those goods that are produced by other
countries with lower costs (in the production of which absolute advantage belongs to
their trading partners).
The rule of comparative advantage, which was formulated at the beginning of
the 19th century by the famous English economist David Ricardo [3]: each country
can benefit if it specializes in the production and export of those goods whose
production costs are relatively low, and vice versa, import goods from higher costs.
The modern implementation of this rule is the calculation of a special coefficient T -
the "terms of trade" index, which is set by the proportion:
Pe
T=
Pi
Where Pe - is the export price index, Pi - is the import price index. Mention
that an increase in the T coefficient is associated with an improvement in trading
conditions.
A significant breakthrough in the theory of international trade was made only
in the mid-1920s. XX century economists-neoclassicists E. Heckscher and B. Ohlin.
The Heckscher-Ohlin theory proposes a model of trade in terms of the relative
endowments of countries with factors of production. The theory had some
assumptions: there are only 2 countries and 2 goods; one product is labour-intensive,
the second is capital-intensive; each country is endowed with these factors of
production to varying degrees [4, p. 16]. A country will have a relative advantage in
those products that are factored-intensive, are abundant in that country, and therefore
will import those products that are factored-intensive compared to those that are
УДК 519.86: 519.866 Голубик А.Ю., Мастеренко А.Д., МЕ-101 ФМЕіМ
scarce in that country. This theory is based on Ricardo's Law of Comparative Cost.
But the Heckscher-Ohlin theory goes further, linking the model of international trade
with the structure of the economies of the countries that trade. Thus, the Heckscher-
Ohlin theory offers a tool for analysing the impact of changes in trade on countries'
own economic structures and, in particular, internal distribution of profits.
In 1948 Paul Samuelson proved and mathematically supported the theorem of
equalization of prices for factors of production, which was called the Heckscher-
Ohlin-Samuelson theorem - international trade leads to the equalization of absolute
and relative prices for homogeneous factors of production in the countries that trade.
Homogeneous capital is capital that has the same performance and riskiness;
homogeneous work is work with the same level of training, education and
productivity; homogeneous lands are lands with the same fertility, soil condition etc.
The main advantage of the theory of different relative endowments of
production factors, consisting of two interrelated theorems - the Heckscher-Ohlin
theorem and the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theorem, is that it is an important tool
for analysing the international economy, illustrating and proving the principle of
general equilibrium, to which the economic development. But despite the
mathematical attachment, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was valid only in 70% of
cases, and in 30% the "Leontief paradox" was fulfilled [5, p. 111].
In 1954, the American economist V. Leontief applied the theory of Heckscher-
Ohlin to the analysis of US foreign trade, namely: calculating the total cost of labour
and capital for exports and imports. According to the working hypothesis, the United
States should have exported capital-intensive goods, and imported goods. However,
the result was the opposite (exported labour-intensive and less capital-intensive
products than imported). This is what is called the "Leontief paradox". It was found
that the relative surplus of capital in the United States does not affect foreign trade.
Leontief himself and other economists have made numerous attempts to
explain this paradox. So, despite the differences in the calculation technique, all
studies basically confirmed the presence of the Leontief paradox, scientists began to
introduce into the Heckscher-Ohlin model other factors of production, such as
УДК 519.86: 519.866 Голубик А.Ю., Мастеренко А.Д., МЕ-101 ФМЕіМ
technology, labour force qualifications, in addition to capital and labour. The fact that
products can be produced in different ways is one of the explanations for the Leontief
paradox. Moreover, the fact that labour is not a homogeneous commodity is another
explanation for the Leontief paradox.
Among the practical models of international trade, the most common is
econometric.
With econometric models, the functions of import and export are represented in
the form of regression equations and connect the values of imports and exports of a
certain country with a number of variables, both internal and external for a given
country, character. These functions are considered production functions. Most often
they are used in the description of large commodity groups, imports or exports.
The import function can be represented as:
I =f (Y , Pi , PY , Z ),
Pi
muliticollinearity, the ratio P is used instead of the absolute values of Pi∧PY . The
Y
form of dependence in the function is most often logarithmic, since in this case the
parameters are the coefficients of the elasticity of imports for various factors.
E=f (Y w , Pe , PW ),
The export and import functions can be used as separate tools for economic
analysis, for example:
In addition, the export and import functions are the basis of foreign trade
blocks of macroeconomic models of countries and are applied in balance of payment
models.
Among the empirical models of international exchange, the most famous is the
gravitational model of international exchange. It argues that the volume of trade
between countries is directly proportional to the economic potential of the two
countries and indirectly proportional to the distance between them. The model also
includes in the study the effect of the presence of a common border, a common
language, the duration of economic relations, participation in joint economic
groupings. Although the gravity model has been used in empirical research since the
1960s, the theoretical basis for the model has been around for a relatively short time.
M αi M βj
F ij=G δ
ε ij
d ij
Where, ε ij - all other factors affecting exports, but are not included in the
equations; d ij - is the factor of trade costs associated with exports, including transport
costs based on the determination of the length. [6].
Висновки
Conclusions
The use of mathematical methods for modelling the latest trends in the
development of the world economy makes it possible to reveal the main problems of
the development of international trade at the present stage. The use of these models is
a powerful modern tool for studying the complex processes that take place in
international economic relations between countries in general, and in international
trade. In particular, for the analysis of the activities of modern transnational
УДК 519.86: 519.866 Голубик А.Ю., Мастеренко А.Д., МЕ-101 ФМЕіМ
Література.