Các giả định

Chi phí khới sự 150000 Chi phí biến đổ 75% DT

GIÁ 35000
Chi phí cố định 15000 Chi phí sử dụn 10%
Chi phí khấu hao 10000 Thuế 34%

0 1 2 3 4
Cầu sản phẩm 10 10 10 10
Doanh Thu 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000
Chi phí cố định 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Chi phí biến đổi 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
Khấu hao 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
OBT 62,500 62,500 62,500 62,500
Thuế 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250
OAT 41,250 41,250 41,250 41,250
Dòng tiền ròng-NCF (150,000) 51,250 51,250 51,250 51,250

Giá trị hiện tại thuần 12,455.60

IRR 13.8%
LSCK NPV
12,455.60
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%

25%

20%

15%
Column B
Column C
10%

5%
15%
Column B
Column C
10%

5%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Các giả định
Chi phí khới sự 150000 Chi phí biến đổ 75% DT
GIÁ 35000
Chi phí cố định 15000 Chi phí sử dụn 10%
Chi phí khấu hao 10000 Thuế 34%

0 1 2 3 4
Cầu sản phẩm 12 10 12 12
Doanh Thu 350,000 420,000 420,000 420,000
Chi phí cố định 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Chi phí biến đổi 262,500 315,000 315,000 315,000
Khấu hao 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
OBT 62,500 80,000 80,000 80,000
Thuế 21,250 27,200 27,200 27,200
OAT 41,250 52,800 52,800 52,800
Dòng tiền ròng-NCF (150,000) 51,250 62,800 62,800 62,800

Giá trị hiện tại thuần 38,567.55

STT NPV NPV NPV

1 38,567.55 34,705.98
2 38,567.55 19,011.20 Mean 11604.48091
3 38,567.55 25,594.41 Standard Error 1752.577739
4 38,567.55 7,205.60 Median 9136.389249
5 38,567.55 28,067.55 Mode 7205.604125
6 38,567.55 32,067.17 Standard Deviation 17525.77739
7 38,567.55 (13,656.34) Sample Variance 307152873.3
8 38,567.55 22,789.94 Kurtosis -0.67441937
9 38,567.55 (11,100.37) Skewness 0.305525394
10 38,567.55 49,067.55 Range 73223.89181
11 38,567.55 (9,794.77) Minimum -24156.3418
12 38,567.55 16,482.84 Maximum 49067.55003
13 38,567.55 39,873.15 Sum 1160448.091
14 38567.550031 -24156.3418 Count 100
15 38567.550031 12538.43658
16 38567.550031 7288.436582 -0.662137869766362
17 38567.550031 19011.20142 25.4%
18 38567.550031 -20211.9391
19 38567.550031 -5850.36883
20 38567.550031 4566.798716
21 38567.550031 18928.36896
22 38567.550031 -13656.3418
23 38567.550031 30678.74462
24 38567.550031 -3156.34178
25 38567.550031 -8406.34178
26 38567.550031 -5933.20128
27 38567.550031 25428.74462
28 38567.550031 788.0609248
29 38567.550031 3261.201421
30 38567.550031 -517.53637
31 38567.550031 22789.93921
32 38567.550031 18928.36896
33 38567.550031 7371.269039
34 38567.550031 -517.53637
35 38567.550031 45123.14733
36 38567.550031 17539.93921
37 38567.550031 11067.17437
38 38567.550031 -5933.20128
39 38567.550031 35928.74462
40 38567.550031 4649.631173
41 38567.550031 -1988.79858
42 38567.550031 41178.74462
43 38567.550031 30844.40953
44 38567.550031 7205.604125
45 38567.550031 7205.604125
46 38567.550031 -5767.53637
47 38567.550031 -4544.77153
48 38567.550031 -600.368827
49 38567.550031 -1823.13367
50 38567.550031 -8406.34178
51 38567.550031 -7155.96612
52 38567.550031 49067.55003
53 38567.550031 30844.40953
54 38567.550031 30761.57708
55 38567.550031 15066.79872
56 38567.550031 12538.43658
57 38567.550031 -5767.53637
58 38567.550031 21732.83929
59 38567.550031 15066.79872
60 38567.550031 8428.368964
61 38567.550031 38567.55003
62 38567.550031 -9794.77153
63 38567.550031 -1905.96612
64 38567.550031 5900.00683
65 38567.550031 41178.74462
66 38567.550031 8428.368964
67 38567.550031 7288.436582
68 38567.550031 25428.74462
69 38567.550031 7122.771669
70 38567.550031 -5933.20128
 71 38567.550031 4732.46363
72 38567.550031 -1988.79858
73 38567.550031 9844.409535
74 38567.550031 -11017.5364
75 38567.550031 -11100.3688
76 38567.550031 9844.409535
77 38567.550031 7205.604125
78 38567.550031 15094.40953
79 38567.550031 -16267.5364
80 38567.550031 49067.55003
81 38567.550031 21732.83929
82 38567.550031 -14961.9391
83 38567.550031 24123.14733
84 38567.550031 21567.17437
85 38567.550031 9844.409535
86 38567.550031 31984.34192
87 38567.550031 12621.26904
88 38567.550031 31984.34192
89 38567.550031 -1823.13367
90 38567.550031 3178.368964
91 38567.550031 -8406.34178
92 38567.550031 39873.14733
93 38567.550031 4649.631173
94 38567.550031 21650.00683
95 38567.550031 22872.77167
96 38567.550031 29373.14733
97 38567.550031 45123.14733
98 38567.550031 -3128.73096
99 38567.550031 12455.60413
100 38567.550031 12289.93921
 Histogram
20 120.00%
10 60.00%

Frequency
0 0.00% Frequency
31 4 9 81 87 Cumulative %
9 93 7 32 6 46 966
7 6 0 4
4 1 7 4 2 3 933 608
.3 17 .9 .1
1 5 6 89 . 777 745
4 1 9 1 Bin
-2 -2 1 4

Bin FrequencyCumulative %
TB -24156.34 1 1.00%
-16834 1 2.00%
-9511.563 9 11.00%
-2189.174 13 24.00%
Độ lệch chuẩn 5133.215 15 39.00%
12455.6 17 56.00%
19777.99 12 68.00%
27100.38 11 79.00%
34422.77 9 88.00%
41745.16 7 95.00%
More 5 100.00%

Số mẫu
CÔNG TY MPC
Giả định

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
CẦU 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
Giá 12 13 13 14 15 16
Doanh Thu 84,000 89,040 94,382 100,045 106,048 112,411
Chi phí HĐ 37,800 40,068 42,472 45,020 47,722 50,585
Khấu hao 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000
OBT 1,200 3,972 6,910 10,025 13,326 16,826
OAT 900 2,979 5,183 7,519 9,995 12,620
45,900 47,979 50,183 52,519 54,995 57,620
Tái sản cố định (270,000) 30,000
NWC (35,000) 35,000
NCF (305,000) 45,900 47,979 50,183 52,519 54,995 122,620
LSCK 12%
NPV (63,345)
IRR 5%

7,000 0.14
8,000 0.14
9,000 0.14
10,000 0.14
11,000 0.14
12,000 0.14
13,000 0.14
CÔNG TY MPC
Giả định

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
CẦU 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000
Giá 12 13 13 14 15 16
Doanh Thu 84,000 101,760 121,349 142,922 166,647 192,704
Chi phí HĐ 37,800 45,792 54,607 64,315 74,991 86,717
Khấu hao 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000
OBT 1,200 10,968 21,742 33,607 46,656 60,987
OAT 900 8,226 16,306 25,205 34,992 45,741
45,900 53,226 61,306 70,205 79,992 90,741
Tái sản cố định (270,000) 30,000
NWC (35,000) 35,000
NCF (305,000) 45,900 53,226 61,306 70,205 79,992 155,741
LSCK 12%
NPV (9,040)
IRR 11%
 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cầu sản phẩm 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 9,000.0 5,000.0
GIÁ bán 310.0 310.0 310.0 310.0 310.0
DT 1,550,000.0 1,550,000.0 1,550,000.0 2,790,000.0 1,550,000.0
DĐịnh phí 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0
Biến phí 775,000.0 775,000.0 775,000.0 1,395,000.0 775,000.0
Khấu hao 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0
OBT (25,000.0) (25,000.0) (25,000.0) 595,000.0 (25,000.0)
OAT (25,000.0) (25,000.0) (25,000.0) 446,250.0 (25,000.0)
0AT+KH (25,000.0) (25,000.0) (25,000.0) 846,250.0 (25,000.0)
TSCĐ (2,000,000.0) 262,500.0
NWC (100,000.0) 100,000.0
NCF (2,100,000.0) (50,000.0) (50,000.0) (50,000.0) 1,292,500.0 312,500.0
LSCK
WACC 8.5%
NPV ($1,002,064)
IRR -8%
npv npv 272868.856911269 Bin
1 ($1,002,064) -2146876.269 -2662216.57
2 -1002064.204 272868.85691 Mean -225334.76263744 -2158638.178
3 -1002064.204 -163501.0708 Standard Error 115080.866362781 -1655059.785
4 -1002064.204 134185.5514 Median -184176.21470492 -1151481.393
5 -1002064.204 1098092.1126 Mode #N/A -647903.0009
6 -1002064.204 -1196126.154 Standard Devia 1139242.45385923 -144324.6087
7 -1002064.204 -103601.8542 Sample Varianc 1297873368675.2 359253.78345
8 -1002064.204 -2434424.002 Kurtosis -0.2879082712962 862832.17565
9 -1002064.204 737179.13711 Skewness -0.1413740235193 1366410.5679
10 -1002064.204 -854179.1079 Range 5035783.92199433 1869988.9601
11 -1002064.204 745719.3534 Minimum -2662216.5697448 More
12 -1002064.204 118835.538 Maximum 2373567.35224953
13 -1002064.204 -1473235.752 Sum -22082806.738469
14 -1002064.204 -713872.874 Count 98
15 -1002064.204 -1242692.479
16 -1002064.204 -611470.9355
17 -1002064.204 -1434103.407
18 -1002064.204 490250.97197
19 -1002064.204 -1299859.536
20 -1002064.204 -1248472.704
21 -1002064.204 -2281728.034
22 -1002064.204 723577.5131
23 -1002064.204 -936739.0246
24 -1002064.204 -2600885.131
25 -1002064.204 -270657.2349
26 -1002064.204 985212.4354
27 -1002064.204 1458683.2077
28 -1002064.204 1307601.5174
29 -1002064.204 -684529.6236
30 -1002064.204 -1240010.622
31 -1002064.204 191005.78057
32 -1002064.204 710071.29876
33 -1002064.204 -29877.07628
34 -1002064.204 -2396210.585
35 -1002064.204 -732805.5203
36 -1002064.204 -1243021.355
37 -1002064.204 -174069.4561
38 -1002064.204 -398556.1691
39 -1002064.204 970645.56547
40 -1002064.204 2373567.3522
41 -1002064.204 -340828.8745
42 -1002064.204 1971115.8388
43 -1002064.204 -1054871.898
44 -1002064.204 -386443.966
45 -1002064.204 -2380555.118
46 -1002064.204 499028.06805
47 -1002064.204 1565602.0547
48 -1002064.204 -1974655.029
49 -1002064.204 -1024668.82
50 -1002064.204 88962.452799
51 -1002064.204 -2662216.57
52 -1002064.204 943967.32879
53 -1002064.204 527291.26842
54 -1002064.204 -419753.519
55 -1002064.204 -981633.547
56 -1002064.204 -868141.8695
57 -1002064.204 1114273.6382
58 -1002064.204 -669833.2464
59 -1002064.204 -328060.0201
60 -1002064.204 1387234.8699
61 -1002064.204 699677.65902
62 -1002064.204 -1307987.567
63 -1002064.204 546826.5462
64 -1002064.204 -25848.90125
65 -1002064.204 -611584.2801
66 -1002064.204 -1523243.44
67 -1002064.204 -2382044.654
68 -1002064.204 636582.65601
69 -1002064.204 -108888.7765
70 -1002064.204 1441421.9673
71 -1002064.204 235696.92915
72 -1002064.204 -1624791.671
 73 -1002064.204 1960951.6382
74 -1002064.204 -428857.0009
75 -1002064.204 -194282.9733
76 -1002064.204 419787.61225
77 -1002064.204 35760.333101
78 -1002064.204 493232.3786
79 -1002064.204 -376597.888
80 -1002064.204 -2624746.164
81 -1002064.204 -268718.2857
82 -1002064.204 812883.55437
83 -1002064.204 88941.354322
84 -1002064.204 1588559.6521
85 -1002064.204 14029.079936
86 -1002064.204 118694.78589
87 -1002064.204 -293825.8596
88 -1002064.204 1825159.6925
89 -1002064.204 10411.97519
90 -1002064.204 -1752969.864
91 -1002064.204 -282856.8638
92 -1002064.204 -720488.8576
93 -1002064.204 129378.63596
94 -1002064.204 -371152.9912
95 -1002064.204 -942315.6708
96 -1002064.204 -82611.45213
97 -1002064.204 76152.73756
98 -1002064.204 1437868.5782
99 -1002064.204 811758.25925
100 -1002064.204 -828580.2708
 Histogram
20 120.00%
10 60.00%
Frequency

0 0.00% Frequency
8 5 9 1 Cumulative %
FrequencyCumulative % 7 44 1 46 179 050
1 1.02% 69 9 3 4 5 6 0
6 .5 1.3 83 8.9
7
7 8.16% 2 2 1 1 48 5 3 . 9 9 8
66 15 92 86
2 10.20% -2 -1 35 1 Bin
11 21.43%
13 34.69%
17 52.04%
17 69.39%
14 83.67%
6 89.80%
7 96.94%
3 100.00%
 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cầu sản phẩm 5,000.0 5,500.0 6,050.0 6,655.0 7,320.5
GIÁ bán 310.0 310.0 310.0 310.0 310.0
DT 1,550,000.0 1,705,000.0 1,875,500.0 2,063,050.0 2,269,355.0
DĐịnh phí 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0
Biến phí 775,000.0 852,500.0 937,750.0 1,031,525.0 1,134,677.5
Khấu hao 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0 400,000.0
OBT (25,000.0) 52,500.0 137,750.0 231,525.0 334,677.5
OAT (25,000.0) 39,375.0 103,312.5 173,643.8 251,008.1
0AT+KH (25,000.0) 439,375.0 503,312.5 573,643.8 651,008.1
TSCĐ (2,000,000.0) 262,500.0
NWC (100,000.0) 100,000.0
NCF (2,100,000.0) (50,000.0) 478,750.0 606,625.0 747,287.5 1,264,516.3
LSCK
WACC 8.5%
NPV $106,645
IRR 10%