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2
[1]
더구나 Fed 가 연내 보유자산 축소 가능성을 내비치면서 글로벌 금융시장에 미국발 금융긴축의 충격이 예고되고
있다. Fed 는 2008 년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 미 국채와 주택담보부증권 등을 사들이는 방식으로 시중에 자금을
공급하고 4 조 5000 억 달러 규모의 자산을 보유해 왔다 . 그러나 경기회복세가 뚜렷해지면서 2015 년 12 월부터
금융완화 축소에 나섰는데 이제 실업률도 4% 대까지 떨어지면서 이르면 올 9 월 보유자산도 줄이는 양적긴축
(QT) 에 나서겠다는 것이다.
[2]
[번역과제 BA]
[1]
When the world’s central bankers meet this week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., the topic on the table will be how to foster a dynamic
global economy. For America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, the biggest problem is at home, not abroad, and its latest view
on the economy, released last week, shows it may not have a handle on it.
As Fed officials try to make sense of how low unemployment, which should drive up wages and prices, persists side by side with
low inflation, most simply assume that inflation will rise by next year as labor demand lifts wages and higher wages lead to rising
prices. This belief has led to two interest rate increases so far this year, in effect tapping the brakes on growth to fight inflation,
with another rate increase expected this year. A more plausible view is that persistently low inflation shows the economy is more
fragile than policy makers(정책입안자, 정책결정자 always not set) want to admit, and needs to be helped, not handicapped.
[2]
A pivotal year for the ECB: Whereas 2018 will be known as the year when the ECB reached the end of its monetary easing path –
with the cessation of QE net purchases under which the ECB accumulated a bond portfolio worth €2.6 trillion over the course of
close to four years – 2019 will mark the beginning of monetary tightening.
First rate hike since 2011: Given the challenging macro backdrop the unwinding of monetary stimulus will proceed at a gradual
pace at best in 2019. Assuming that the economic upswing in the Eurozone remains intact next year, as is plausible from today’s
point of view, the ECB will raise rates for the first time since 2011 starting off with a 15bp hike in the deposit rate in September
followed by a 25bp hike in all key rates in December. This will also reflect an attempt to win back policy room to fight the next
crisis.
Safety nets to ensure a smooth departure from the zero lower bound: For the great unwind to proceed without any tantrums, the
ECB will put safety nets in place. For one the reinvestment of maturing bonds will weigh on long-term rates until at least 2021. In
addition the ECB is likely to extend its forward guidance beyond the first rate hike to ensure that market expectations remain
aligned with its monetary policy intentions.