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Textbook Climate Change and The Health of Nations Famines Fevers and The Fate of Populations 1St Edition Mcmichael Ebook All Chapter PDF
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i
“The seminal work of Tony McMichael has led to the growing recognition that
human health is threatened by unsustainable global environmental trends. This
book is essential reading for those concerned with the future of humanity in the
Anthropocene epoch. It compellingly describes how human health will be under-
mined in the absence of decisive and prompt action but also articulates a visionary
way forward through policies which can reduce the environmental footprint of
humanity whilst safeguarding health and creating more resilient societies.”
—Professor Sir Andy Haines, London School of Hygiene
and Tropical Medicine
“The greatest risks of climate change may well be those it poses to human health.
Tony McMichael helps us face the future by understanding the past: this is an
unprecedented investigation into the interactions between climate and human
wellbeing over the entire life of our species. That McMichael’s colleagues have
brought his final work to publication is fitting tribute to a lifetime of pioneering
research and teaching in climate change and medical science.”
—Sir David King, UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate
Change; Former UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser’.
“Tony McMichael was a master at mixing solid research with a good dose of in-
spiration. He told us that the Earth is no longer able to sustain our avid desire to
consume. After reading this book you too may be inspired to become a visionary
campaigner, as was Tony, to protect our health from unsustainable environmental
trends.”
—Maria Neira, Director of the Department of Public Health, Environmental
and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization
“For decades Tony McMichael has been among the most insightful authorities on
global health and environmental issues. In this book, he provides a guide to the
linkages between climate change and human health through the ages. In stirring
prose, McMichael carries the story from climate’s role in early human evolution to
the current health impacts of a warming Earth. No book could be more timely.”
—J.R. McNeill, Georgetown University; author of Something New Under
the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-century World
ii
“This book constitutes the third in the McMichael trilogy on climate and
health. The earlier books described the effects of climate change on human health;
this latest volume documents impacts on the health of societies throughout his-
tory from changes in climate. While we now better understand how climate has
shaped humans and their world in the past, this book gives a sobering and, in the
end, frightening vision of where we might be headed in the future.”
—Kirk R. Smith, Professor of Global Environmental Health, School
of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, USA
“Tony McMichael clarifies our thoughts about climate change by shifting the
focus from the physics of what’s happening in the oceans and atmosphere to the
long term consequences for health, well-being and the future of our (and other)
species. Seen through that prism, the need for immediate and meaningful correc-
tive action is obvious.”
—Peter Doherty, Laureate Professor, The Peter Doherty Institute for
Infection & Immunity, Melbourne University
“The untimely death of Tony McMichael robbed us of the major source of wisdom
about the health impacts, not just of climate change, but of how uncontrolled
consumption by homo-sapiens is damaging all our futures. This scholarly book
of the historical interplay between climate, human activity and health is his last
magnum opus; I hope that politicians read it!”
—Fiona Stanley AC, FAA, FASSA
iii
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE HEALTH
OF NATIONS
Q
iv
CLIMATE
CHANGE AND
THE HEALTH
OF NATIONS
Q
FAMINES, FEVERS, AND THE FATE
OF POPULATIONS
A NTHONY J . M C M ICHAEL
WITH
A LISTAIR W OODWARD
AND C AMERON M UIR
1
vi
1
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers
the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education
by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University
Press in the UK and certain other countries.
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America
vii
q
List of Illustrations xi
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xix
1. Introduction 1
2. A Restless Climate 22
ix
x
x Contents
Notes 281
Index 355
L I S T OF I L LUS T R AT IONS
q
1.1 Reconstructed global temperature variations during the
11,000 years of the Holocene 2
1.2 Schematic diagram of the main paths, direct and indirect, by
which climatic changes affect human health 7
1.3 Variations in average Northern Hemisphere temperature during
the past 12,000 years 11
1.4 Changes in globally averaged daily energy use per person
during the Holocene 16
1.5 Relationships between temperature and malaria cases
in the Solomon Islands, and rainfall and diarrhea cases
in Suva, Fiji 20
2.1 The Milankovitch cycles in Earth’s orbital and axial
geometry 26
2.2 Schematic representation of the Hadley (three-cell) Circulation,
plus main winds, and high-and low-pressure regions 28
2.3 Map of world climate oscillations 30
2.4 Global land-ocean surface temperature trend during
1880–2012, shown as deviations from the 1951–1980 average
global temperature 44
3.1 Graph of daily death rate in relation to maximum daily
temperature, New York City 54
xi
xii
q
This book is about how climate has played upon the health and fates of
populations throughout the 200,000-year odyssey of the human spe-
cies. You may ask: “Why write a book about the past when today’s big
challenge is to avert future climate change?” My answer is that knowl-
edge about past human experiences of natural climate shifts alerts us
to the risks that humankind faces. The landscapes of past millennia are
littered with famines and fevers, often provoked by natural changes in
climate systems. The future prospect may be darker if, as now seems
likely, unusually large and rapid climate change, accompanied by ex-
treme weather variability, lies ahead.
“Histories are written to help explain how we got where we are,”1 and
I argue that history can also help explain where we may be heading.
Earth’s biography offers us a natural historical analog of future climate
change—albeit one that cannot clearly predict the consequences of the
more extreme forms of climate change that may occur later this century.
But historical insights may help jolt us out of policy-paralyzing
complacency and deferral of responsibility—the “moral economy of
inaction.”2
Naive assumptions that incremental technical adjustments and
adaptations will allow us to pursue business as usual reflect a deep
ignorance about the complex nature of the real world. Yet I believe
xv
xvi
xvi Preface
that there is still cause for optimism. Global information flows are
heightening awareness of the causes, processes, and consequences of
climate change. Young researchers, willing to look beyond the conven-
tional bounds of their disciplines, are now engaging with this topic,
responding to challenges, and knowing that their work is contributing
to the global common good at this epochal time. As people’s knowl-
edge about, and experiences of, climate change accumulate, as climate
science strengthens, and with a reality check garnered from history’s
archives, we humans may yet take extraordinary international action.
Many national governments now see that their future economic secu-
rity is threatened by climate change—and that responding to it pro-
vides social and economic opportunities.
Despite the economic stranglehold exerted by the fossil fuel indus-
try, for example, renewable energy systems are now evolving rapidly.
As an environmental epidemiologist3 and medical graduate, my in-
terest in this topic began when writing an Australian national news-
paper column, Spaceship Earth, in the early 1970s—a time of rising
concerns about “limits to growth” and the environmental hazards as-
sociated with industrial expansion.4 There was much concern about
direct chemical toxicity and the spread of synthetic pesticides through
nature’s food chains, but concern also was growing that human intru-
sion on the natural environment was endangering living organisms and
their ecosystems.
The risks posed by climate change to human health and physical
survival are now better known. Since the early 1990s, I have contrib-
uted to the assessment of health risk by the UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and have done likewise in Asian and
Pacific countries for the World Health Organization. My knowledge of
this field has benefited greatly from working with colleagues who are
experts on diverse aspects of climate change, the physical and social sci-
ences, and population health.
My hope for this book is that better insights into the influence
of climate change on human populations and their societies will help
motivate more effective changes in how we live and how we care for
the planet. Exposure to unusual climatic fluctuations and shifts over the
past two million years accelerated the evolution of a powerful, flexible,
and creative human brain. Having long used that brain to satisfy the
xvii
Preface xvii
basic urges to own, acquire, control, and consume, we must now apply
our collective brainpower to halting the unusual change in climatic
behavior that our creative and acquisitive actions have caused.
Tony McMichael, Australian National University,
Canberra, July 2014
My husband, Tony McMichael, worked on this book in between other
commitments from around 2011 to September 2014. The book stems
from Tony’s keen interest in the long history of health and disease and
upon his pioneering work, stretching over more than 20 years, on the
impact of climate change on human populations. He wanted this book
to contribute to a better understanding of the intertwined relationship
between humans and their environment, and to how human popula-
tions are impacted by, and impact upon, the life support systems of our
planet. A full manuscript was submitted to Oxford University Press
in early 2014 and was subsequently accepted subject to attention to
reviewer comments and a reduction in length. Tony was looking for-
ward happily to completing the book, but he died unexpectedly on
September 26, 2014.
The book has been revised and edited, therefore, by Alistair Woodward
and Cameron Muir. Alistair, a longstanding colleague of Tony’s and
his successor as a coordinating lead author for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, applied his population health perspective.
Cameron brought his knowledge of environmental history and overall
editing expertise.
My family, as well as Tony’s many friends and colleagues, miss him
sorely. We are happy that this, his last book, has been published and
joins his many other publications in expanding our understanding of
the intersections between environments and human well-being and the
grave risks that we humans face in a warming world.
Judith Healy, Australian National University,
Canberra, January 1, 2017
xviii
AC K NOW L E D G M E N T S
q
Tony McMichael enjoyed discussing aspects of this wide-ranging book
with many people during its gestation, and some people read and com-
mented upon early drafts of the whole book or particular chapters. Tony
did not keep an up-to-date list, however, of the many people whom he
consulted, since he knew who they were, what suggestions they had
made, and the lines of inquiry along which they directed him. We are
embarrassed, therefore, that the following acknowledgments are very
partial and hope that the many people not mentioned will understand.
Tony appreciated the support given him by the Australian National
University and by his colleagues at the National Centre for Epidemiology
and Population Health, whose director he was from 2001 to 2007, then
as an NHMRC Australia Fellow and latterly as emeritus professor. The
Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center offered a stimulating environ-
ment for researching and presenting his ideas during a residency in
2012. Tony also appreciated the steadfast assistance of Andrew Schuller
in shepherding the book through to a publisher—as did we during the
later stages of the book. We are also grateful to Laura Ford for checking
and completing the references.
Many other people assisted in various ways, and as acknowledged,
the following is a very incomplete (in family name alphabetic order)
roll call: Phillip Baker, John Brooke, Colin Butler, Andrew Glikson,
xix
xx
xx Acknowledgments
1
2
0.4
1961–1990 Average (°C)
0
0.7°C
–0.4
–0.8
–1.2
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Years before Present
Introduction 3
evolution of life and for the emergence of human cultures and societies,
and the health of their populations.
Some argue that it is the fact that the future may be like the past that
makes science possible, while the fact that the future may not be like
the past makes science necessary.15 Although climate change this cen-
tury will differ greatly in speed and extent from natural climate changes
over past epochs, thus making new modes of science necessary, I believe
insights from studying past climatic experiences will help us anticipate
the scale and nature of hazards that may lie ahead.
Historian Geoffrey Parker concludes from his research on the global
crisis of the seventeenth century that Europe’s dire climate at that time
strongly influenced the health and survival of communities and their
social and political stability. He wrote:16
“We have only two ways to anticipate the impact of a future cata-
strophic climate change … Either we ‘fast-forward’ the tape of
history and predict what might happen on the basis of current
trends; or we ‘rewind the tape’ and learn from what happened
during global catastrophes in the past. Although many experts
(mainly climatologists, sociologists, and political scientists) have
tried the former, few have systematically attempted the latter [my
emphasis] … [from which] we may learn some valuable lessons
for dealing with the climate challenges that undoubtedly await us
and our children.”
The history of natural climate changes over the past six or seven mil-
lennia should shed light on how those changes influenced the health
and survival of human societies. Interesting questions abound. Did
climate change during the approaching depth of the glacial period
around 23,000 years ago b.c.e. (Before Current Era) hasten the demise
of our cousins, the Neanderthals? How did the prolonged drying of
the Sahara 5,500 years ago, or of southern Mesopotamia 4,000 years
ago, affect food yields and hence the health and the viability of those
societies? How did climatic fluctuations influence the outbreaks of the
first two bubonic plague pandemics in the sixth and fourteenth centu-
ries c.e. (Current Era) respectively?17 Did the five dynastic collapses in
5
Introduction 5
China over the past millennium mostly occur after periods of unusually
adverse climatic conditions?
Other exogenous environmental factors, such as regional differ-
ences in soil fertility, water supplies, numbers of plants and animal
species amenable to domestication, and access to trade routes, influ-
enced the long-term development, wealth, technical sophistication,
and power of societies.18 The same can be said of the natural shifts,
cycles, and fluctuations in the climate. Examples include:
But are the past and future comparable? Does today’s global connect-
edness, for example, offset the risks that once applied to regionally
isolated societies? Have rich urban-industrial populations buffered
themselves against the main risks of climate change? The answers may
surprise us unpleasantly. The OECD warns, for example, that modern
hyper-integrated IT-dependent urban populations have become
increasingly vulnerable to the potential havoc caused by major ex-
ternal environmental stressors.19 The partial collapse of New York’s
infrastructure caused by Superstorm Sandy in late 2012 underscores
that point.
Introduction 7
Figure 1.2 Schematic diagram of the main paths, direct and indi-
rect, by which climatic changes affect human health. McMichael,
“Globalization, Climate Change, and Human Health.”
Source: Author.32
Permission received from Massachusetts Medical Society.
8
Then he grasped his trusty rifle, and boldly fought for Freedom;
Smote from border unto border the fierce invading band:
And he and his brave boys vowed—so might Heaven help and
speed ’em—
They would save those grand old prairies from the curse that blights
the land;
And Old Brown,
Osawatomie Brown,
Said, ‘Boys, the Lord will aid us!’ and he shoved his ramrod down.”
...
William Allingham.
JOHN BROWN
Mr. Chairman: I have been struck with one fact, that the best
orators who have added their praise to his fame,—and I need not go
out of this house to find the purest eloquence in the country,—have
one rival who comes off a little better, and that is John Brown.
Everything that is said of him leaves people a little dissatisfied; but
as soon as they read his own speeches and letters they are heartily
contented,—such is the singleness of purpose which justifies him to
the head and the heart of all. Taught by this experience, I mean, in
the few remarks I have to make, to cling to his history, or let him
speak for himself.
John Brown, the founder of liberty in Kansas, was born in
Torrington, Litchfield County, Connecticut, in 1800. When he was five
years old his father emigrated to Ohio, and the boy was there set to
keep sheep and to look after cattle and dress skins; he went
bareheaded and barefooted, and clothed in buckskin. He said that
he loved rough play, could never have rough play enough; could not
see a seedy hat without wishing to pull it off. But for this it needed
that the playmates should be equal; not one in fine clothes and the
other in buckskin; not one his own master, hale and hearty, and the
other watched and whipped. But it chanced that in Pennsylvania,
where he was sent by his father to collect cattle, he fell in with a boy
whom he heartily liked and whom he looked upon as his superior.
This boy was a slave; he saw him beaten with an iron shovel, and
otherwise maltreated; he saw that this boy had nothing better to look
forward to in life, whilst he himself was petted and made much of; for
he was much considered in the family where he then stayed, from
the circumstance that this boy of twelve years had conducted alone
a drove of cattle a hundred miles. But the colored boy had no friend,
and no future. This worked such indignation in him that he swore an
oath of resistance to slavery as long as he lived. And thus his
enterprise to go into Virginia and run off five hundred or a thousand
slaves was not a piece of spite or revenge, a plot of two years or of
twenty years, but the keeping of an oath made to heaven and earth
forty-seven years before. Forty-seven years at least, though I incline
to accept his own account of the matter at Charlestown, which
makes the date a little older, when he said, “This was all settled
millions of years before the world was made.”
He grew up a religious and manly person, in severe poverty; a fair
specimen of the best stock of New England; having that force of
thought and that sense of right which are the warp and woof of
greatness. Our farmers were Orthodox Calvinists, mighty in the
Scriptures; had learned that life was a preparation, a “probation,” to
use their word, for a higher world, and was to be spent in loving and
serving mankind.[155]
Thus was formed a romantic character absolutely without any
vulgar trait; living to ideal ends, without any mixture of self-
indulgence or compromise, such as lowers the value of benevolent
and thoughtful men we know; abstemious, refusing luxuries, not
sourly and reproachfully, but simply as unfit for his habit; quiet and
gentle as a child in the house. And, as happens usually to men of
romantic character, his fortunes were romantic. Walter Scott would
have delighted to draw his picture and trace his adventurous career.
A shepherd and herdsman, he learned the manners of animals, and
knew the secret signals by which animals communicate.[156] He
made his hard bed on the mountains with them; he learned to drive
his flock through thickets all but impassable; he had all the skill of a
shepherd by choice of breed and by wise husbandry to obtain the
best wool, and that for a course of years. And the anecdotes
preserved show a far-seeing skill and conduct which, in spite of
adverse accidents, should secure, one year with another, an honest
reward, first to the farmer, and afterwards to the dealer. If he kept
sheep, it was with a royal mind; and if he traded in wool, he was a
merchant prince, not in the amount of wealth, but in the protection of
the interests confided to him.
I am not a little surprised at the easy effrontery with which political
gentlemen, in and out of Congress, take it upon them to say that
there are not a thousand men in the North who sympathize with John
Brown. It would be far safer and nearer the truth to say that all
people, in proportion to their sensibility and self-respect, sympathize
with him. For it is impossible to see courage, and disinterestedness,
and the love that casts out fear, without sympathy. All women are
drawn to him by their predominance of sentiment. All gentlemen, of
course, are on his side. I do not mean by “gentlemen,” people of
scented hair and perfumed handkerchiefs, but men of gentle blood
and generosity, “fulfilled with all nobleness,” who, like the Cid, give
the outcast leper a share of their bed; like the dying Sidney, pass the
cup of cold water to the dying soldier who needs it more. For what is
the oath of gentle blood and knighthood? What but to protect the
weak and lowly against the strong oppressor?
Nothing is more absurd than to complain of this sympathy, or to
complain of a party of men united in opposition to slavery. As well
complain of gravity, or the ebb of the tide. Who makes the
abolitionist? The slave-holder. The sentiment of mercy is the natural
recoil which the laws of the universe provide to protect mankind from
destruction by savage passions. And our blind statesmen go up and
down, with committees of vigilance and safety, hunting for the origin
of this new heresy. They will need a very vigilant committee indeed
to find its birthplace, and a very strong force to root it out. For the
arch-abolitionist, older than Brown, and older than the Shenandoah
Mountains, is Love, whose other name is Justice, which was before
Alfred, before Lycurgus, before slavery, and will be after it.[157]
XII
THEODORE PARKER
THEODORE PARKER
At the death of a good and admirable person we meet to console
and animate each other by the recollection of his virtues.
I have the feeling that every man’s biography is at his own
expense. He furnishes not only the facts but the report. I mean that
all biography is autobiography. It is only what he tells of himself that
comes to be known and believed. In Plutarch’s lives of Alexander
and Pericles, you have the secret whispers of their confidence to
their lovers and trusty friends. For it was each report of this kind that
impressed those to whom it was told in a manner to secure its being
told everywhere to the best, to those who speak with authority to
their own times and therefore to ours. For the political rule is a
cosmical rule, that if a man is not strong in his own district, he is not
a good candidate elsewhere.
He whose voice will not be heard here again could well afford to
tell his experiences; they were all honorable to him, and were part of
the history of the civil and religious liberty of his times. Theodore
Parker was a son of the soil, charged with the energy of New
England, strong, eager, inquisitive of knowledge, of a diligence that
never tired, upright, of a haughty independence, yet the gentlest of
companions; a man of study, fit for a man of the world; with decided
opinions and plenty of power to state them; rapidly pushing his
studies so far as to leave few men qualified to sit as his critics.[158]
He elected his part of duty, or accepted nobly that assigned him in
his rare constitution. Wonderful acquisition of knowledge, a rapid wit
that heard all, and welcomed all that came, by seeing its bearing.
Such was the largeness of his reception of facts and his skill to
employ them that it looked as if he were some president of council to
whom a score of telegraphs were ever bringing in reports; and his
information would have been excessive, but for the noble use he
made of it ever in the interest of humanity. He had a strong
understanding, a logical method, a love for facts, a rapid eye for their
historic relations, and a skill in stripping them of traditional lustres.
He had a sprightly fancy, and often amused himself with throwing his
meaning into pretty apologues; yet we can hardly ascribe to his mind
the poetic element, though his scholarship had made him a reader
and quoter of verses. A little more feeling of the poetic significance of
his facts would have disqualified him for some of his severer offices
to his generation. The old religions have a charm for most minds
which it is a little uncanny to disturb. ’Tis sometimes a question, shall
we not leave them to decay without rude shocks? I remember that I
found some harshness in his treatment both of Greek and of Hebrew
antiquity, and sympathized with the pain of many good people in his
auditory, whilst I acquitted him, of course, of any wish to be flippant.
He came at a time when, to the irresistible march of opinion, the
forms still retained by the most advanced sects showed loose and
lifeless, and he, with something less of affectionate attachment to the
old, or with more vigorous logic, rejected them. ’Tis objected to him
that he scattered too many illusions. Perhaps more tenderness
would have been graceful; but it is vain to charge him with perverting
the opinions of the new generation.
The opinions of men are organic. Simply, those came to him who
found themselves expressed by him. And had they not met this
enlightened mind, in which they beheld their own opinions combined
with zeal in every cause of love and humanity, they would have
suspected their opinions and suppressed them, and so sunk into
melancholy or malignity—a feeling of loneliness and hostility to what
was reckoned respectable. ’Tis plain to me that he has achieved a
historic immortality here; that he has so woven himself in these few
years into the history of Boston, that he can never be left out of your
annals. It will not be in the acts of city councils, nor of obsequious
mayors; nor, in the state-house, the proclamations of governors, with
their failing virtue—failing them at critical moments—that coming
generations will study what really befell; but in the plain lessons of
Theodore Parker in this Music Hall, in Faneuil Hall, or in legislative
committee rooms, that the true temper and authentic record of these
days will be read. The next generation will care little for the chances
of elections that govern governors now, it will care little for fine
gentlemen who behaved shabbily; but it will read very intelligently in
his rough story, fortified with exact anecdotes, precise with names
and dates, what part was taken by each actor; who threw himself
into the cause of humanity and came to the rescue of civilization at a
hard pinch, and who blocked its course.
The vice charged against America is the want of sincerity in
leading men. It does not lie at his door. He never kept back the truth